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Cybertruck production likely delayed....Post your best guess of WHEN for the record!

kizamybute'

Member
Aug 24, 2019
231
549
Los Angeles, CA

Knowing Tesla, assuming nobody is surprised by this. But, being that we already near August and Tesla still hasn't figured out the batteries, you know, just one of those teeny tiny little details needed for an Electric Vehicle, and the production line hasn't been set up yet as they're still sorting out Model Y production, Tesla is clearly still a long ways from getting the Cybertruck to production.

Tesla is famous for delays, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. But, as the Model 3 was, in Musk's own words "production hell", being that the Cybertruck is a ground up new vehicle, seems that setting up the factory to produce these things won't be easy.

Anyone have any REALISTIC guesses as to when true production will begin?

My best guess, based on all the data at hand, is that true production of the Cybertruck likely won't begin before the end of 2022. Maybe, just barely maybe, by December of 2022, but unlikely. Referring to actual production line vehicles, not a counting few hand built vehicles that Tesla might deliver, as they've done in the past.

Post your guesses for the record. Winner gets a cookie!! LOL

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and go with December, 2022 as my official guess of record!
 

Jedi2155

Model 3 has Arrived.
Jul 6, 2018
1,685
1,441
Upland, CA
I'm going to guess 2023 Q2 given the delays related with 4680 production and priority on the Y. We might see some deliveries in Q4 2022 as you guessed, but Q2 2023 is my pessimistic view. I suspect the engineering is mostly done except for the batteries but at this point they're waiting for factory lines + 4680 design.
 

DRTII

Member
Jul 23, 2021
100
137
Oregon
Considering CT is in Alpha it should enter Beta Q4 and then production late 2022, if we're looking at optimistic internal timelines.

That probably won't happen for a number of reasons.

1.) Battery: Can't do it without the new one. No firm projection on their availability right now, so punt it a year at least.

2.) Model Y production: This vehicle takes priority and they're looking to scale out Austin with Y's before CT's, and really, as long as demand is high, Y will need the scale. I don't see that ending for at least 2 years, if ever (see: F150)

3.) 2022 is basically a wash. Chip production is only satiating 2020 demand as we speak, and probably not even doing it well. So, when 2021's that are sitting on lots finally get chips, that flood will come in but it doesn't mean there's going to be excess chips for all that want them. Not even close.

So, 2022 might have a limited run (100 or less) IF it gets out of BETA, but I wouldn't expect first round of production until mid 2023, if ever. CT could theoretically get scrapped for a more efficient design, or using a chassis that can pull double or triple duty (like a van, large SUV) because as it stands the CT would be a one-off and that's not efficient from a production standpoint.

2024 I'd expect full scale production if the CT doesn't get scrapped entirely.
 

TessP100D

Member
Jan 15, 2018
577
602
La Quinta, Ca
Considering CT is in Alpha it should enter Beta Q4 and then production late 2022, if we're looking at optimistic internal timelines.

That probably won't happen for a number of reasons.

1.) Battery: Can't do it without the new one. No firm projection on their availability right now, so punt it a year at least.

2.) Model Y production: This vehicle takes priority and they're looking to scale out Austin with Y's before CT's, and really, as long as demand is high, Y will need the scale. I don't see that ending for at least 2 years, if ever (see: F150)

3.) 2022 is basically a wash. Chip production is only satiating 2020 demand as we speak, and probably not even doing it well. So, when 2021's that are sitting on lots finally get chips, that flood will come in but it doesn't mean there's going to be excess chips for all that want them. Not even close.

So, 2022 might have a limited run (100 or less) IF it gets out of BETA, but I wouldn't expect first round of production until mid 2023, if ever. CT could theoretically get scrapped for a more efficient design, or using a chassis that can pull double or triple duty (like a van, large SUV) because as it stands the CT would be a one-off and that's not efficient from a production standpoint.

2024 I'd expect full scale production if the CT doesn't get scrapped entirely.
Exactly
 

kizamybute'

Member
Aug 24, 2019
231
549
Los Angeles, CA
Wow, I thought I was being a little pessimistic with my December, 2022 estimate. But, some good points made. And with Tesla's own history, I guess it probably is more likely to be even longer. I guess Elon doesn't realize that pickup trucks are the best selling vehicles in the world and the world is clamoring for an Electric Pickup. First to market, be it Ford, Rivian and even the Hummer to some degree, will certainly enjoy the very high demand, just as Tesla did for the past 8+ years as the only premium EV automaker. First to market with a truck will see the same benefits.
 
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TessP100D

Member
Jan 15, 2018
577
602
La Quinta, Ca
so most of the reservation holders will bail I’m sure. The rest towards the back of the line should see the redesigned model in 2025-2026, maybe.
this is so crazy.
 

TessP100D

Member
Jan 15, 2018
577
602
La Quinta, Ca
for a laugh. Try reading some stuff in the Cyber Truck Owners Club. Talk about fanboys. Omg. Last year it was like… no it’s coming in June of 2021 and I’m going first. Then is was… oh you hate Tesla and your a Fudster for saying it will be delayed. Now of course they have pivoted to … well let’s get it right before they ship it. And they all know everything about everything too. Lol.

it’s crazy over there.
 

morrisdl

Member
Dec 4, 2017
311
202
Smith Mt Lake, VA
....using a chassis that can pull double or triple duty (like a van, large SUV) because as it stands the CT would be a one-off and that's not efficient from a production standpoint....
That might be an outdated mindset that works with frames or engine/transmission combos. With giga-pressing and exoskin folding already more efficient. The computers and motors are already crossing over from 3>>Y>>S>>CyberTruck. IF these are truly just computer-on-wheels, then the are all already common platform.

My Rez is near 1,000,000 -- I guess delivery Q1 2023.
 
Last edited:

Maryland

Member
Jul 30, 2020
56
56
Maryland
Hopefully they feel some pressure to get things rolling by 2022 because being one of the last ones to hit the market with an electric truck will hurt their sales compared to if they were first or close to first.

Man this sucks. I mean I know Elon is always overly optimistic (or outright lying) when it comes to his timelines, so I had to expect some delay. I guess what I am most disappointed about is having to drive my boring 04 Legacy around for another couple years lol. This car is such a turd.
 
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Schradey

New Member
Jan 16, 2021
4
4
Glendale, AZ
I think Tesla will have a very strong incentive to beat - or at least match - the Ford F150 Lightning release in "spring" 2022 (before June 20th). I'm going with "spring" 2022 and I think Tesla will surprise and beat Ford by releasing CT a week or two before F150 Lightning -- on June 15th.
 

jebinc

MSM Model S PLAID, cream/FSD; MYP, white on white
Supporting Member
Jun 19, 2019
7,647
10,831
Seattle area
New batteries (at production volumes) will be the missing linch-pin; delaying CT and others. I’m 40,000 in line and ordered a Plaid while I wait until 2023 at the earliest. Might get “cancelled” and replaced as the Plaid+ was.
 
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