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Cybertruck production likely delayed....Post your best guess of WHEN for the record!

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And if they don’t sort out all the issue? Then What?
Musk indicated that they were "Hedging" their bets by producing more 2170 batteries as a backup in case the 4860 batteries are not fully available. when needed That being said, that will increase the price of the Cybertruck, etc. Also, we are guessing at when manufacturing will start. Manufacturing new devices is not easy to do. Additionally Austin is not completed yet and you need a fully functional factory to get the ball rolling. That is why my guess was for mid to late 2022 provided they have calibrated and fully trained all personnel that will construct the Cybertruck go to go. We are dealing with bits and pieces of information that do not provide a full picture what is and what is not completed and ready to go. To date, Model Y is the priority with test production to commence shortly.
 

Rattletrap

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Jun 1, 2021
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Hopefully they feel some pressure to get things rolling by 2022 because being one of the last ones to hit the market with an electric truck will hurt their sales compared to if they were first or close to first.

Man this sucks. I mean I know Elon is always overly optimistic (or outright lying) when it comes to his timelines, so I had to expect some delay. I guess what I am most disappointed about is having to drive my boring 04 Legacy around for another couple years lol. This car is such a turd.
I too was driving my ancient combustion shietbox for a long time waiting for the tri-motor Cybertruck to release. I realized around March of this year that the truck wasn't going to begin deliveries anytime soon, if ever. They promised a whole lot as far as specs for the price, particularly with the tri-motor model, and with the recent scrapping of the S Plaid Plus we have to wonder if they'll really be able to deliver an electric tank with 4680 batteries for $70k. I decided to just sell my shietbox into the hottest used car market of all time and get a 3 Long Range, and it was the right decision for me. Still not cancelling my CT pre-order, but I wouldn't put off upgrading to an EV now in anticipation of a CT release in the next 2 years.
 
Oct 28, 2019
580
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Texas
I too was driving my ancient combustion shietbox for a long time waiting for the tri-motor Cybertruck to release. I realized around March of this year that the truck wasn't going to begin deliveries anytime soon, if ever. They promised a whole lot as far as specs for the price, particularly with the tri-motor model, and with the recent scrapping of the S Plaid Plus we have to wonder if they'll really be able to deliver an electric tank with 4680 batteries for $70k. I decided to just sell my shietbox into the hottest used car market of all time and get a 3 Long Range, and it was the right decision for me. Still not cancelling my CT pre-order, but I wouldn't put off upgrading to an EV now in anticipation of a CT release in the next 2 years.
if Tesla rolls out an electric tank with 3-motor and batteries good for 500+ miles of range for just under $70k when the F150 Lightning and Rivian are only rated 300 miles (40% less range on paper) and cost about the same... well then it's a sure buy. I'm just very skeptical that they can hold all 3 specs as promised (price / range / 3-motors)
 
Musk indicated that they were "Hedging" their bets by producing more 2170 batteries as a backup in case the 4860 batteries are not fully available. when needed That being said, that will increase the price of the Cybertruck, etc. Also, we are guessing at when manufacturing will start. Manufacturing new devices is not easy to do. Additionally Austin is not completed yet and you need a fully functional factory to get the ball rolling. That is why my guess was for mid to late 2022 provided they have calibrated and fully trained all personnel that will construct the Cybertruck go to go. We are dealing with bits and pieces of information that do not provide a full picture what is and what is not completed and ready to go. To date, Model Y is the priority with test production to commence shortly.
IMHO no way you see this CT before 2023. No way.
 
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OakvilleMYP

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Jun 11, 2020
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I too was driving my ancient combustion shietbox for a long time waiting for the tri-motor Cybertruck to release. I realized around March of this year that the truck wasn't going to begin deliveries anytime soon, if ever. They promised a whole lot as far as specs for the price, particularly with the tri-motor model, and with the recent scrapping of the S Plaid Plus we have to wonder if they'll really be able to deliver an electric tank with 4680 batteries for $70k. I decided to just sell my shietbox into the hottest used car market of all time and get a 3 Long Range, and it was the right decision for me. Still not cancelling my CT pre-order, but I wouldn't put off upgrading to an EV now in anticipation of a CT release in the next 2 years.
Good call. They are all very similar vehicles on the inside, the truck comes when it comes, now you wont care if its next month or in 12 or 20 months.
The cars were vapourware until they were not, truck will be the same. If you can afford it, 3motor is the way to go for sure.
 
Oct 28, 2019
580
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Texas
IMHO no way you see this CT before 2023. No way.
*unless* road-testing/ pre-production testing is outsourced to the first buyers... what many don't understand vehicles like a new F150 are road-tested/ pre-production tested for 1yr+ ... and not just 4-5 vehicles - and for a good reason. truck buyers are notoriously unforgiving when their heavy duty/ can do anything/ rugged truck has stuff coming off or failures within the first months of ownership
 
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Oct 28, 2019
580
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Texas
Good call. They are all very similar vehicles on the inside, the truck comes when it comes, now you wont care if its next month or in 12 or 20 months.
The cars were vapourware until they were not, truck will be the same. If you can afford it, 3motor is the way to go for sure.
unless it's the roadster / semi or plaid+
 
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unless it's the roadster / semi or plaid+
This is very true for now.
We will have to wait, quite some time likey, and see.
I don’t get the purpose of the plaid+, it shouldn’t have even existed. With the plaid performance the new roadster is not required either. Instead of announcing and delaying niche products indefinitely, more focus should be made on priority items, batteries, truck and semi.
 

Rattletrap

Member
Jun 1, 2021
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This is very true for now.
We will have to wait, quite some time likey, and see.
I don’t get the purpose of the plaid+, it shouldn’t have even existed. With the plaid performance the new roadster is not required either. Instead of announcing and delaying niche products indefinitely, more focus should be made on priority items, batteries, truck and semi.
I'd disagree here. Even if they don't sell many Roadsters in the middle of a pandemic, all EV makers would really benefit from showing the world what an all-electric, lighweight production supercoupe could do. Sure, the Model 3 has the straight line performance of a Ferrari 458 but it has awful bodyroll through curves and the whole world knows it. The only lightweight EV supercars out there now are handmade botique models that cost $2M+ each. A $200k Tesla-branded coupe that gaps a Bugatti in both straight line and handling performance will silence the combustion guys for good!
 
I'd disagree here. Even if they don't sell many Roadsters in the middle of a pandemic, all EV makers would really benefit from showing the world what an all-electric, lighweight production supercoupe could do. Sure, the Model 3 has the straight line performance of a Ferrari 458 but it has awful bodyroll through curves and the whole world knows it. The only lightweight EV supercars out there now are handmade botique models that cost $2M+ each. A $200k Tesla-branded coupe that gaps a Bugatti in both straight line and handling performance will silence the combustion guys for good!
A 100k lightweight 300mi roadster I can get behind. A 600mi+ roadster at 200k will be heavy, and rely on the same all wheel drive trickery the plaid relies on to be fast around a track. You don’t think those booster rockets weigh 1lbs each?
1 second 0-60, is that useful?
I’m considering the 202x roadster btw.
 

Knowing Tesla, assuming nobody is surprised by this. But, being that we already near August and Tesla still hasn't figured out the batteries, you know, just one of those teeny tiny little details needed for an Electric Vehicle, and the production line hasn't been set up yet as they're still sorting out Model Y production, Tesla is clearly still a long ways from getting the Cybertruck to production.

Tesla is famous for delays, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. But, as the Model 3 was, in Musk's own words "production hell", being that the Cybertruck is a ground up new vehicle, seems that setting up the factory to produce these things won't be easy.

Anyone have any REALISTIC guesses as to when true production will begin?

My best guess, based on all the data at hand, is that true production of the Cybertruck likely won't begin before the end of 2022. Maybe, just barely maybe, by December of 2022, but unlikely. Referring to actual production line vehicles, not a counting few hand built vehicles that Tesla might deliver, as they've done in the past.

Post your guesses for the record. Winner gets a cookie!! LOL

I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and go with December, 2022 as my official guess of record!
I am not sure how much of these delays are related to the design completion/factory readiness/current chip shortage. Currently, most Teslas are on several month backorder. I can only assume that this is related to the supply of chips and not other production limitations.

Given a 1 yr. lag between demand and supply of chips, and the expected launch date of Q4, 2021, I would expect to see CT's in volume starting Q4, 2022. I think initial units probably come out July/August 2022.
 
I am not sure how much of these delays are related to the design completion/factory readiness/current chip shortage. Currently, most Teslas are on several month backorder. I can only assume that this is related to the supply of chips and not other production limitations.

Given a 1 yr. lag between demand and supply of chips, and the expected launch date of Q4, 2021, I would expect to see CT's in volume starting Q4, 2022. I think initial units probably come out July/August 2022.
Hahah. no Deliveries in 2022. Not a chance.
 
Well, we know now that Giga Austin/Texas will initially start producing Model Ys. And we know that Tesla wants to allocate 4680s - to the extent they can start producing them or receiving them from suppliers at scale - towards the Model Ys first as well. I'm not sure if they'd then move on to the Plaid, Cybertruck, or Semi. But they have 3-4 proposed products (to say nothing of the Roadster 2.0), all of which have stated specs that can only be achieved by these 4680s. So it's going to be a game of picking priorities in 2022, I believe.

Given what they said at AI Day - they're going to roll out the next FSD hardware with the Cybertruck - and that the stated timeline was "in a year," and then adding on Elon Time, @TessP100D is probably right. I don't think we're seeing any CTs in 2022 - maybe a few hundred like they did with the Model S Plaid this year but that would be about it. Priority seems to be Model Y, imo.
 
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strider

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A 100k lightweight 300mi roadster I can get behind. A 600mi+ roadster at 200k will be heavy, and rely on the same all wheel drive trickery the plaid relies on to be fast around a track. You don’t think those booster rockets weigh 1lbs each?
1 second 0-60, is that useful?
I’m considering the 202x roadster btw.
EVs are heavy so it becomes about power/weight and the number of cells is a huge factor in the power part of that equation. The range is a byproduct of needing that many cells to spread the discharge rate over in order to get the performance they want. With fewer cells the discharge rate per cell will be too high and the batteries will die in months.

Luckily, EVs have a low center of gravity and tire technology is advancing rapidly to be able to keep all that mass stuck to the ground.

Here is what I think happened w/ the Plaid+. Elon/Tesla believed that the 4680s would be ready before the CT line in Austin was built. So they would put the 4680s in the Plaid+ to start getting some real world data on their performance and longevity while Austin was being completed. The 4680s could then be tweaked with any findings from Plaid+ before going into the CT and Semi. When the 4680s were delayed they cancelled the Plaid+ and then decided to build the MY line in Austin first to buy more time for the 4680s to be completed. The early CTs will then become their test bed for the 4680s.
 
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EVs are heavy so it becomes about power/weight and the number of cells is a huge factor in the power part of that equation. The range is a byproduct of needing that many cells to spread the discharge rate over in order to get the performance they want. With fewer cells the discharge rate per cell will be too high and the batteries will die in months.

Luckily, EVs have a low center of gravity and tire technology is advancing rapidly to be able to keep all that mass stuck to the ground.

Here is what I think happened w/ the Plaid+. Elon/Tesla believed that the 4680s would be ready before the CT line in Austin was built. So they would put the 4680s in the Plaid+ to start getting some real world data on their performance and longevity while Austin was being completed. The 4680s could then be tweaked with any findings from Plaid+ before going into the CT and Semi. When the 4680s were delayed they cancelled the Plaid+ and then decided to build the MY line in Austin first to buy more time for the 4680s to be completed. The early CTs will then become their test bed for the 4680s.
Can’t disagree with any of your comments.

I liked the idea of a lighter, 10-11 second 1/4 mile roadster, not an 8 second one. The gen 1, with a 53KW is plenty fun with a 12s 1/4 mile.

It seems the CT specs are not gonna happen without the 4680, so it may be the first to get them, but depends on production timeline it could get plunked into something already up and running. Model S plaid spec sheet is impressive as it stands to me. We’ll wait and see how it plays out.
 

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