Tesla has 6+ months backlogs and 30% margins.
Yes, inflation is at play here. But if Tesla was struggling to get cars out the door, they wouldn’t be pushing out these price hikes so quickly.
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Cybertruck
- Thread starter mbeadnell
- Start date
Yes, inflation is at play here. But if Tesla was struggling to get cars out the door, they wouldn’t be pushing out these price hikes so quickly.
Yes, but…
It’s really hard to know how long Rivian will be making million dollar trucks. You could use the same logic to suggest there is a lot filled with million dollar Model Ys in Austin. We know with some certainty Tesla will be ramping up volume very quickly in Austin though.
Rivian on the other hand?? Maybe they will? At their earnings call they didn’t sound too hopeful they would be turning on the spigot soon. Rivian’s management suggested they were seriously supply constrained. Maybe they get some long term contracts landed and things ramp up? Hard to say.
The Kin sold 500 because nobody wanted them so kind of a tough compare here.
Anyhow I think it’s not entirely fair to say they are not selling trucks. They absolutely are. They are just a super-niche player losing lots of money at the moment and seem likely to remain that way. They have about $10 billion dollars to figure this out with.
Rivian is starting where Tesla started... for YEARS Tesla made staggering losses and the only profit came from selling emission credits. Also: Rivian production should scale up and get more efficient with their new factory in Georgia slated for 2024
This is not a helpful comparison. There are far more differences in their situations than similarities.
Tesla was operating in a green field with essentially no competition. They had a small dedicated customer base to experiment with. A 2 year delay was frustrating, but since there was no other game in town, people coped.
The market doesn’t look like that any more.
Rivian only has a short window where their product is super-unique and interesting and that window is closing slowly. Where Tesla had ~10 years to get from Roadster to the Model 3, Rivian has maybe 18 months. The idea that they can sit on 70,000 orders for 2 more years when Georgia comes online is just silly. They need to get production working at Normal and quickly.
Rivian is in a green field since there currently is no competition in the very popular pickup truck market. Unlike Tesla's genesis, however, there are several products promised from several semi-credible sources so time definitely is of the essence for them. In that same vein, Tesla can afford to wait to get the Cybertruck right since that market won't be saturated for several years as even they are short on enough batteries for pickup trucks.
Also, however, there is the challenge that the field isn't as green as it was for Tesla's Roadster and Model S markets where there were plenty of extremely expensive ICE competitors setting the market precedent for high prices. Many of the early would-be pickup buyers grouse about the price and a pickup is going to require a lot of batteries - the most expensive component in an EV.
The ZEV credits that Tesla bought definitely did help provide much needed cash flow as they were ramping up and that isn't the same for Rivian.
Also, this isn’t expectations set by outsiders. Rivian was saying right up into the IPO that they would produce 40,000 trucks this year. Now they’ve dropped it to 25,000 but it’s likely they will miss that too.
If Rivian wasn’t ready to build 70,000 trucks, they shouldn’t have pimped the hell out of them over the past year. They were so busy pushing hard to squeeze IPO investors, they didn’t consider whether they could actually deliver on those promises.
If Rivian wasn’t ready to build 70,000 trucks, they shouldn’t have pimped the hell out of them over the past year. They were so busy pushing hard to squeeze IPO investors, they didn’t consider whether they could actually deliver on those promises.
what competition does the R1T currently have/ will have over the next years?
The F150 Lightning is the *ONLY* other EV truck coming out this year and as Ford stated the volumes will be fairly "modest" for the years to come. Not even remotely enough to satisfy the demand.
The Silverado is slated for 2024+ ... likely later if you want the sub $100k version
And the Cybertruck has no final production specs/ no price/ no range and no "production beginning date" ... so make that 2024+ as well
By the time the Silverado and Cybertruck are starting delivery ... Rivian will have had 2yrs+ to fine tune production and build a new 2nd assembly line...
A F150 King Ranch/ Platinum currently goes for well into the high $80s and a mundane F150 Lariat for the high $50s to mid $60s
So a $70-$80k EV truck isn't priced unreasonably high...
Seems like you are trying to split a mighty fine hair here and making some rather favorable assumptions along the way.
If Tesla punts the Cybertruck into 2027 and Ford‘s deliveries remain lethargic, and GM doesn’t release the $80k Hummer, and Ram doesn’t launch until the end of the 2024… Rivian has a full 24-30 months of runway.
They are still sitting on 70,000 pre-orders, many thousands of whom have already waited 3+ years. Many thousands of who ordered more recently And had no idea they were signing up for a 3+ year wait on a truck. Do you really think “Waiting until Georgia” is a good plan here?
Do you think a CEO making decisions based on a pile of fairly optimistic assumptions is a good way to run a company?
RJ Scaringe was talking about having 10% market share by 2030. That doesn’t happen by hoping everyone else screws up.
I just roll with what get said and I see. Elon said it was “most likely” shipping in 2023 on the earnings call.
I think it would be stupid for Rivian to plan on that not happening.
Personally? We’ll know when the Cybertruck is 3-6 months out. Gigapress, demo trucks, cell lines moving, this stuff gets seen. I’m not getting worked up one way or the other until then.
Rivian seems to have already lost that critical mass and I personally don't think they will be able to replicate the magic of Tesla.
If you are in the market for an EV pickup, and you are watching the expertise and long term consistency of the big players (Tesla, GM, Ford, Stellantis) would anyone really buy an $80K EV truck from a start up? Realize that there is a reasonable chance that this company will fail and the product will be unsupported in a few years.
The saving grace of course is Amazon's 18% stake.
It's just not a risk I'd be willing to take.
If you are in the market for an EV pickup, and you are watching the expertise and long term consistency of the big players (Tesla, GM, Ford, Stellantis) would anyone really buy an $80K EV truck from a start up? Realize that there is a reasonable chance that this company will fail and the product will be unsupported in a few years.
The saving grace of course is Amazon's 18% stake.
It's just not a risk I'd be willing to take.
why would *ANYONE* buy an electric car from Tesla up until 2018/2019 ... yet plenty of people still did.
I think people just need to stop comparing Rivian to various parts of Teslas life cycle.
I’m sure you think your comparison makes sense but it doesn’t. Rivian’s current issues are quite different from the struggles Tesla had. They are trying to go right from zero to Model 3 size production. That’s just not something Tesla ever tried to bite off. Tesla never went through a phase where they have tons of cash until way after they‘d mastered manufacturing.
FWIW, I totally get why people would want the Rivian. It’s a damned nice truck and SUV. In spite of my cynicism, I want them to succeed too.
I think your point is a reasonable one, and I'm glad it worked out so well for those early Tesla purchasers.
The EV truck segment is about to get a lot more crowded and starting a car brand from scratch is quite challenging.
If it's a risk you are comfortable with, I encourage you to jump in. In my life I've purchased enough items that didn't really take off and soon became obsolete. So as a result, it's not a chance I'd take with an $80K truck. But $80K to you, might mean something entirely different than it means to me.
GL
Musk talking to (mostly employees?) at Giga Berlin after the first few deliveries.
In the Q&A piece, Musk reiterates Cybertruck in 2023 and “Hopefully” enough cells for the semi.
Lends a little more credence to Sawyer Merritt’s comments about a dual motor CT being first. Dual motor means fewer cells per truck which means more capacity for Semi and/ or more Cybertrucks out the door.
(Yes, keep that grain of salt handy)
In the Q&A piece, Musk reiterates Cybertruck in 2023 and “Hopefully” enough cells for the semi.
Lends a little more credence to Sawyer Merritt’s comments about a dual motor CT being first. Dual motor means fewer cells per truck which means more capacity for Semi and/ or more Cybertrucks out the door.
(Yes, keep that grain of salt handy)
I think people should continue. The market does.
Can summarize real quick Rivian:
1. Raised a whole bunch of money with cool design, and add on deals with others to become in the game of EV's.
2. Got some of the brightest minds at the time I guess to design and build a Truck, SUV, and a Van.
3. Market set expectations of if Tesla can do manufacturing you smarty pantses better be able to as well (build a tent if you have to)
4. Either timing or the laundry list of things to do with supply chain led to expectations not being met. Ask Elon. It is hard to build something that people want that is super complex, and do it timely.
Rivian is needing one thing the market can't provide. Time.
I remember as a young Boy Scout going into the clay room at GM Tech center. Then going onto the Explorer engineering post. I saw engine designs the same way. I saw cars that were years and years away. The time they had to make each model year tinker and little update was crazy for today, that time was crunched when Tesla came along. It will continue to do so to adapt to cost and raw material availability. Look at battery chemistries. One must adapt quickly. Yet Rivian was talking about future factories. Quickly humbled.
Still I think more is better, we need more participants in the EV truck world. Maybe some crazy designs to go along with my hope to see someday Cybertrucks.
This is what concerns me. They had time. They had money. They’ve had 4+ years with billions in cash, a factory, and a huge pile of customers. Their time is running out.
Yes.
The EV market is quickly turning into a mono-culture of Model Ys and a small number of cars very similar to the Model Y. It would be nice to see a bit of variety with electric trucks. The R1S also fills a niche which nobody else fills.
Dual motor first works good for me. Buy that configuration first and then wait for quad motor…then buy that and sell dual motor.
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