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Daily TSLA Trading Charts

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Papafox, Apr 15, 2016.

  1. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    On days where there's something to be learned from the TSLA trading chart, I'll be posting it here with my comments, looking for your opinions too.
     
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  2. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    tslamar242016.jpg Let's start with March 24, 2016- The Thursday before the Good Friday holiday. This is an example of a trading day when options expire and when there is low volume (see gold spikes on bottom). Things to notice:
    * Pre-market trading gave little clue what was in store for the day.
    * It looks like the market-makers didn't want TSLA to exceed 227.50 for the day. With low volume, look at how steady the stock price was once the tractor-beam latched on. For a volatile stock such as TSLA, you simply don't see flat trading unless someone is working to keep the trading flat.
     
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  3. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    apr12.jpg

    Here's the April 12, 2016 daily chart to show why buying shares during the first hour of trading (amateur hour) may not be the best idea in the world.
     
  4. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    tsladayapr15.jpg
    Here's the April 15, 2016 chart. I see points of interest:
    * For at least the third time during the week, the first hour of trading indicated the opposite of what the rest of the day's trading held.
    * This was a Friday trading with options expiring. Notice how TSLA didn't rise much above 252.50 without being beaten back down, time and time again. Someone wanted TSLA to avoid breaking out much higher today. Although the Max Pain for the day was 240, the graph was pretty flat up to 250, before it started ascending. I think the Market-Maker tractor beam worked well at preventing breakouts until the final hour of trading when you can see the volume picked up. At this point the stock could not be held back and broke out for a close at 254.5. Thus, the tractor beam on Fridays does indeed have its limitations.

    With TSLA indicating that it wanted to run higher today but was being artificially held back, I bought some calls and realized a gain for the day.
     
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  5. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #5 Papafox, Apr 18, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2016
    tslaapr18a.jpg
    Today we saw typical Monday morning buying enthusiasm during the first hour of regular trading, followed by various downward spikes and recoveries. I usually suspect short selling in an attempt to cause some fear of falling prices when I see sharp sells, followed by recoveries. Notice how we're seeing a noon drop similar to the March 31 drop, which would be consistent with short selling during the low volume time of day to maximize the effect. About 3pm you can see that a hint of green appears and then the selling quickly brings us into the red, but just barely so. I see the trading from about 2pm until closing as attempts to keep TSLA in the red so that no one gets too positive and so that shorts can bide their time in hopes of bad news.

    What's interesting is the lower stock price in after-hours trading. Normally, after-hours trading remains fairly close to the closing price. I suspect we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see what's up.
     
  6. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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    Market gets worried about bad Q1 financial number in ER. IMO, SP either goes nowhere or slightly goes down before we pass over the bad news in ER. So you can forget about TSLA in next two weeks :)
     
  7. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    Maybe you're right, but here's one possible scenario that could produce a much different effect. Many of us were waiting for the 325,000 Model 3 reservations number moment to come in before we sold shares and leaps. The number wasn't bad, it just wasn't far above expectations, and TSLA dropped quite a bit immediately afterwards. So, investors realize that something good is coming in 2016 (FCF, short-squeeze, etc.) and we want to be invested when the good stuff of 2016 starts happening, but many are waiting until after the Q1 ER to jump back in. My thought is that Q1 ER might be much like the 325,000 reservation reveal moment, except positive instead of negative, and TSLA may jump higher right after the ER. Here's why:

    Model X deliveries were hurt because of the 3rd row of seats issue. We don't know exactly how many Model X vehicles weren't delivered because of the 3rd row issue, but it could be a fairly large number. Thus, we could learn at the ER that a good portion of the missing 1100 Model X vehicles will be delivered in Q2, thereby inflating the Q2 numbers. That is one scenario. If investors don't want to get burned by being late to make their move, you may see a higher number holding through the Q1 event than you might think.
     
  8. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    tslaapr19.jpg
    For April 19, we see a reoccurring theme: a big plunge that peaks during the East Coast lunch hour. Today's news did not warrant any such overreaction. Because we're seeing a repeating trend that results in a somewhat lower TSLA price and discourages upward breakouts, I would think that the routine is being run by shorts rather than longs. If they sell shares in the morning to get the plunge going and then buy back after the selloff has peaked, they make money and are reloaded to try again the next day.
     
  9. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    Can't edit the post above so I'm posting an updated version of chart to show something interesting.
    tslaapr19b.jpg
    Here's why you always want to use LIMIT when you buy or sell after hours. At 4:54pm someone sold 400 shares but didn't set a limit. Oops! Some lucky buyer picked up shares for $236.37.
     
  10. ggr

    ggr Roadster R80 537, SigS P85 29

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    My broker (ETrade) won't let me place a market order for out-of-hours trading. The option simply doesn't exist.
     
  11. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    Here's the May 2 daily chart. Notice again the deep dip just after the noon hour. Over the past month and a half, these deep mid-day dips have become rather common, something you might consider keeping in mind for buying or selling strategies.

    tslamay022016.jpg
     
  12. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    tslamay03.jpg
    Today we saw the usual dip that tends to peak during the noon hour, followed by the usual recovery, and then both the Wall Street Journal and CNBC let loose with mega-FUD, which reversed the upward trajectory and brought the stock price on a downward march for the remainder of the day.
     
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  13. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    tslamay05.jpg
    Today the 1Q16 Earnings Report was released at the end of regular trading, and a conference call followed an hour and a half later. After about a $10 drop in value during normal trading, TSLA made up most of the drop and even traded in the green for part of the time. Notice that once again the bots got ahead of the market, this time on the up side, and TSLA momentarily traded at 240 for s short period. Last ER, TSLA dropped from the high $140s to $130something before turning higher and beginning a spectacular multi-month climb.

    After hours trading indicates indecision by the market. It doesn't know whether to climb significantly due to word that 2020 production may double, or perhaps it should trade lower because TSLA once again missed their numbers in the ER. I suspect analyst adjustments to price targets will provide some guidance to the market in the near future.
     
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  14. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    tsla0505.jpg
    This was the day the market questioned Musk's plan to move 500,000 vehicle production up by 2 years. This was also the day that SpaceX made a particularly-difficult night landing on the drone ship after deploying a large satellite into high orbit and thereby reentering the earth's atmosphere at double the normal speed.
     
  15. austinEV

    austinEV Active Member

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    Does the opposite of this rule hold true as well? I often wondered if every day, at 4pm EST, I should place a buy order for 10% less than the close. 99.9% of the time it wouldn't work, but eventually I get lucky? Or get steamrolled because of some after hours black swan. But that is what we should all be doing, right?
     
  16. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    tsla0506.jpg
    I believe this is what a reversal in sentiment looks like. You can see the ferocious tug-of-war between bears and bulls early in the trading when volume is heavy. The price rises above 215 and pretty much stays there. Towards the end of the day you can see two dips, but by then volume is light and the power of the max pain number (220 for this Friday) took over and with TSLA in the tractor beam, the stock price closed very close to 215, which was the achievable number that most suited the needs of the market makers.

    There's no guarantee where TSLA is going from here, but the fear of buying in has been tempered by a day in which TSLA closed up again.
     
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  17. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    #17 Papafox, May 6, 2016
    Last edited: May 6, 2016
    I think it would work. The negative of using that technique, of course, is if some news came out after hours that caused the SP to plunge, then you would be stuck with the purchase. Overall, I think the risks outweigh the rewards, since this type of trade happens fairly infrequently.
     
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  18. EinSV

    EinSV Member

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    @Papafox, thanks for all the effort posting these charts and your thoughts on them. I bought some Jan. 18 300s yesterday (first-ever options trade for this long-term investor) and the 'mid-day dip' you have highlighted gave me the patience to wait and buy at the daily low. Very helpful.
     
  19. Papafox

    Papafox Active Member

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    Glad to be of help. I bought some Jan18 calls as well yesterday. There are many potential positive catalysts between now and then, with substantial production of Model 3 being the largest. I'm in the camp that says we'll actually see Model 3 produced in volume during 2017.
     
  20. EinSV

    EinSV Member

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    I agree re the potential catalysts. Would have made a bigger bet if Jan19 calls were available -- a little extra time would be a nice hedge against launch hiccups -- but still thought it was worth a shot.
     

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