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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Papafox, Apr 15, 2016.
IIRC, EM said they want to pay it off in cash right? +plus .. place your bets accordingly
Yes, but there needs to be a more official announcement than that.
Please note that Tesla only has to inform ***the note holders*** by December 1. They don't have to tell anyone else. Know anyone who owns the March notes?
Aren't they mostly held by institutional investors?
Apologies for the late posting, life got in the way today. In many ways, today was classic short-seller manipulations. First we had the double mandatory morning dip in which the deepest dip coincided with a dip in the NASDAQ, but the TSLA dip was much deeper, thanks to the dip on steroids selling of the shorts during dip number one. The dip on steroids turned into a sticky dip on steroids as TSLA leveled off below 343 and traded in a horizontal line for almost the entire remainder of the day while the NASDAQ continued to climb. This is classic capping, as the stock price of TSLA would likely have climbed on a trajectory similar to the NASDAQ's if no selling to hold TSLA below 343 too place. Alas, the NASDAQ started to dip about an hour before close, but buyers were not yet willing to sell, and so the cap continued. I had expected a dip into close about 30 minutes prior to the end of market trading because of the help from macros, but I think the shorts were fearful of a bounce and then a climb, particularly if the NASDAQ reversed direction close to the end of trading. Instead, the shorts took a safer route and engineered a big dip in the final 10 minutes of trading, thus cutting off worries of a bounce.
One reason for the heavy manipulations today? Super low volume for TSLA, which again shows that virtually all longs are holding onto their shares and waiting out this theatrics.
Coming soon will be word on how Tesla plans to handle the March note. Since Elon has clearly stated that Tesla will be paying cash, we may receive word of that decision on Friday. It may therefore not be entirely coincidental that Elon had been pushing employees to achieve a 7K/wk Model 3 production rate this week. An email to employees indicating record production levels having been reached would be excellent news to report on the same day that the cash payment option is confirmed. The record production numbers would confirm there will be lots of cash to pay for the note paydown. Fingers crossed.
The NASDAQ was down only 0.25% today, not even remotely justifying TSLA's nearly 2% dip.
Shorts sold 61.83% of TSLA today, which makes sense due to the very obvious manipulations of the TSLA SP today.
Should we be fearful of these manipulations by the shorts? Not in the next couple of months, and here's why. When good Tesla news comes out and buyers are bidding the SP up, shorts simply cannot control the run-up, as we saw on Monday when TSLA climbed more than 20 despite a high percentage of selling being tagged "short". We have good news coming. Further, for several weeks now the comfort zone for TSLA has been in the 340s. I suspect it will rise in December to position itself for the early January production and delivery numbers, but for now if a combination of somewhat weak macros and manipulations by shorts pulls it much below 340, I think TSLA will have another big run up and retake the 340s. I am maintaining a high position in TSLA because we know that good news is coming by early March when the 4Q ER must be released. What we don't know is what other good news will come out in between and when it will be released. I want to be positioned for that surprise news. This stock could be in the 360s again faster than you can imagine. Be patient, longs, our time is coming.
* Dow down 28 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ down 19 (0.25%)
* TSLA 341.17, down 6.70 (1.93%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* Oil 51.46, up 0.01 (0.02%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 61.83%
How close are to the golden cross? Can we anticipate when that will happen?
Thanks for another great daily review, @Papafox. You nailed it.
We're expecting the 2018Q4 Earnings Report around beginning of February, correct?
The 50 and 200ma crosses Monday unless we get a massive drop
Yes, though I believe the unofficial production #s are usually released by Electrek shortly after the end of the quarter. So early January.
In Q2, Tesla confirmed them soon after leaked email was published. Don't remember for Q3. I feel like Electrek posted it before Q3 was over 9/27 or 9/28).
(a thought) ..That would mean, Tesla might have already told the note holders.
Only external clue might be drop in Short Interest as they begin closing their hedged positions ...
You are right that the Q4 ER will take place by early February. I have a couple March 2019 calls, and so I have this mental image of a rise before March, but late January or early February is indeed when we can expect the Q4 ER.
Email was indeed sent today! Nailed it! Tesla achieves Model 3 production of 1,000/day, pushes to maintain it and reduce costs
Just want to say for the past 1.5 years I've read everyone of your posts, and from someone that isn't versed well in stocks other than just buying/holding my shares (don't understand anything else), your posts always help me wrap my head around the day's crazyness and keep me focused on the larger picture.
I agree. I appreciate Papafox’s daily updates
Looks like Tesla's announcement of most processes in Fremont and Gigafactory1 demonstrated Model 3 production capabilities at a 7K/week rate was just the ticket to balance any worries about the Dec.1 deadline for a position on the March bonds coming due, and TSLA headed upwards today with the help of favorable macros. Shorty was busy trying to crash the party and was tagged with 58% of the selling on Friday. By no means does the news suggest Tesla will be cranking out 7K Model 3s a week in early December, but it is huge news because it shows that a lot of previous bottlenecks (such as in paint shop and battery modules) have been eliminated and the company should be ready to realize meaningful volume increases now. Here's a TMC post from @avoigt that reproduces the content of the email sent by Elon to employees.
Looking at the TSLA chart above, you can see a pathetic mandatory morning dip, which turned into a substantial climb once defeated. More than 150,000 shares traded in the final minute of market trading, suggesting lots of shorts reloading at end of day to take advantage of no upward bump to the stock price during that minute.
The NASDAQ rose 0.79% today, setting the stage for a nice TSLA rally as well. A NASDAQ dip into the red a bit after 1pm did not depress TSLA significantly, suggesting TSLA strength. TSLA followed the two peaks in the morning but with much more climb, hardly dipped at the 1:20pm NASDAQ dip, and then roughly followed the NASDAQ in the afternoon but in a much more restrained way, which I think was partly due to manipulations by shorts (they had to deploy the real portion of that 58% selling somewhere).
Elon stated the Model 3 bottleneck right now is in body in white, which was not the bottleneck before. Paint shop and battery module production now appear to be up to the task of producing 7K/week. I suspect Tesla will start getting suppliers to up their parts so as to at least match the capabilities of the slowest part of the production process.
The second significant part of that email was that at the moment, Tesla believes it would cost $38,000 to produce the basic Model 3. In reality, not many short range Model 3s will be absolutely barebone models because people want colors other than black, some want autopilot, some pup, etc. The takeaway should be that the barebones Model 3 will not be a significant part of Model 3 production until costs come down. The good news is that there is a waiting supply of buyers for the lower-cost versions of the car so that if there ever developed a demand issue with more heavily equipped M3s, Tesla could keep the production lines rolling at full speed by simply requiring PUP or autopilot in an order until costs come down further.
The broader picture is that the market is waking to the realities that Tesla was right all along and other companies are going to have to scramble to catch up in vehicles and energy.This realization is part of what drove us higher on Friday, I believe. Consider:
* The enormous battery in South Australia using Tesla Powerpacks turned one year old this week and produced not only substantial profits for the owners but also $90 million is savings for customers. It has been such a roaring success that other similar projects are inevitable.
* GM recently announced factory closing of non-BEV vehicles, including the Chevy Volt. GM says it is preparing for a future with autonomous driving and electric vehicles and needs to take these steps. Takeaway: confirmation that Tesla was on the right path years ago.
* Troy and other VIN watchers agree on more than 60K M3s and 85K total Tesla vehicles being both produced and delivered in Q4, and most observers including Troy himself see these numbers as conservative. Decreases in costs per vehicle should be deeper than relatively small decreases in ASP ($2K/vehicle?). The net result is we have evidence that Q4 will indeed be sufficient to bring profits and substantial positive cash flow yet again.
* At the Los Angeles Car Show the buzz was on EVs, with both Bugatti and Mazda officials pointing out how Tesla has a head start on the industry
The bottom line of these news stories is that we're seeing confirmation that Tesla has indeed changed the course of human terrestrial transport and energy creation/storage and has a substantial head start in implementing the new transportation vision. Add in the growing list of countries and provinces that are requiring the end of ICE new vehicle sales in future years, and it is apparent that Tesla has a brilliant future ahead unless some odd event trips them up. Combine Tesla being at the head of these disruptive changes with the Q4 results, add the catalyst of additional short covering, and you have a recipe for some very nice stock price appreciation ahead.
Shorts were tagged with 58.32% of TSLA selling on Friday, a very high number on a day when the stock price ran high and stayed high all day. This was the third day this week in which shorts doing the manipulations came away with sizable losses for their efforts. The fact that even with this substantial high percentage of selling by shorts this week TSLA managed to rise more than 20 suggests shorts are losing their grip on the stock.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see the golden cross of the 50 day moving average (blue) and the 200 DMA (red) as imminent. Looks like it'll happen on Monday, which is a positive development. Notice that TSLA is now on leg 4 of climbing after the rally turned to slow-climb. Provided that last Friday's dip didn't invalidate the patterns, TSLA should now climb into the 360s and retake the prices explored (but not held) on the last leg. No guarantees. We're just curiously watching to see if the pattern repeats after a break on the downside last Friday. The upper bollinger band will likely have to move higher in order to enable a creep into the 360s.
There's much to say about the short sellers now, and I will do so in a separate post.
For the week, TSLA closed at 350.48, up 24.65 from last Friday's 325.83 and recovering all but 3.83 of last week's dip. It's been a good week, please enjoy your weekend.
* Dow up 200 (0.79%)
* NASDAQ up 57 (0.79%)
* TSLA 350.48, up 9.31 (2.73%)
* TSLA volume 5.6M shares
* Oil 50.93, down 0.52 (1.01%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 58.32%
this may have been answered before but hard to find. What does the number % of TSLA selling by shorts mean?
When I check it at MarketWatch, it says % of float shorted: 22.59%
It's a not very accurate estimate, derived from a part of the total trades that involved short selling. It shows trends.
yep, many times. Most recently on Monday.
@Papafox - maybe a minor change is warranted to your daily update?
Found the one on Monday, thanks.
Maybe it's worth to put a link to it in the daily reports otherwise this will come up all the time.
Edit: ah, you just did that, great!
US and China agree to suspend new tariffs
The White House says this move is now suspended for 90 days but adds, "If at the end of this period of time, the parties are unable to reach an agreement, the 10 percent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent."
In return, the White House adds, China agreed to buy an unspecified but "very substantial" amount of agricultural, energy, industrial and other products.
China tanked their imports of agricultural products from the US with targeted tarriffs on soybeans. I'm going to bet that the "very substantial" amount will just be restoring the pre-tarriff trade balance, because China's negotiators have brains, and Trump doesn't.