Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

I expected a bump up in the stock price this morning because of Friday's bullish run up and an additional run up during after-hours trading. Lo and behold, we got it, I sold a hundred shares with which to buy leaps and since the porridge was much too cold for TSLA's tastes, I went back to sleep (trading begins at 3:30am here in Hawaii). During my slumber, someone heated up the porridge! The NASDAQ turned green while Dow remained red, which is the perfect temperature for TSLA to do well. Upon waking and discovering this porridge heating, I bought a call just to stay neutral in my holdings for the day and awaited the results. Alas, TSLA ran higher, despite running considerably above the upper bollinger band. I promise to reread my own words from Friday's post about in this environment "not getting too tempted to play the dip games". At least the results were relatively neutral. We're only a week away from the release of Q1 delivery numbers. If they're good, I expect a nice bounce up. There's a real possibility that they might not be stellar, though, so again I caution on short-term trades.

What is so exciting about TSLA right now is that it is poised to jump out the the 180-280 trading range of the past two years and redefine a new, higher trading range with the arrival of Model 3 and the maturing of Tesla Energy. When we leave 280 behind, TSLA destroys the main thesis of the casual shorts, which is that TSLA is at the top of its trading range and ready to start the downward move again. When that thesis is destroyed, shorts will start covering at a time when new longs are jumping in. Since more than 30 million shares remain shorted, there's a really good chance of a mass exodus of shorts this year and a corresponding quick rise in the stock price. Don't be caught short, so to speak.

Today's technical chart is illuminating. The close at 270.22 is more than 2.5 points higher than the upper bb at this time. You can take that as a bullish sign of things to come, and you can also take it as a cautionary note regarding the next couple of days, depending upon how you read the tea leaves. I expect the stock price to fall within the upper bb soon, due to the combination of the bb rising and the stock price run up moderating a bit until the upper bb catches up. Typically, we don't see TSLA above the upper bollinger band for more than a couple days in a row. If it remains above that level for three or more days that might be a sign that it's itching for a break out, but I think a real break out would require news of substance. Of course good Q1 delivery numbers could provide that news, and they might not either. Looking forward to seeing the numbers.

Conditions:
* Dow down 46 (0.22%)
* NASDAQ up 12 (0.20%)
* TSLA 270.22, up 7.06 ((2.68%)
* TSLA volume 6.0M shares
* Oil 47.79, down 0.18 (0.38%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate:329,000 drawdown, 1.00% (down from 1.25%),

 

[Papafox]

Here's the after-hours trading. As with Friday, the stock price continued to rise after hours. What we might be seeing is a run up in anticipation of the Q1 numbers, which is both bad and good. If we see a big run up, there's the risk that so-so or disappointing numbers will cause the stock to quickly lose these gains and maybe a bit more because of the momentum. On the other hand, if the numbers are good, then, as Orville and Wilbur most surely said to each other at one time, "This baby is ready to fly!"

 

[neroden]

Oh, please, please, I don't want the big runup to happen before next Monday (for personal trade timing reasons...)

 

[GoTslaGo]

Oh, please, please, I don't want the big runup to happen before next Monday (for personal trade timing reasons...)

My sentiments exactly.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

My sentiments exactly.

Guys, you had 3 years, c'mon now

 

[GoTslaGo]

Guys, you had 3 years, c'mon now

Just wanted one more week (this week)!!

Cashed out my SPY (at local peak) and now have extra cash for TSLA in my IRA.

 

[Papafox]

Conditions:
* Dow up 151 (0.73%)
* NASDAQ up 35 (0.60%)
* TSLA 277.45, up 7.23 (2.68%)
* TSLA volume 7.8M shares
* Oil 48.51, up 0.14 (0.29%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 365,000 shares drawdown, 1.00%
* News: Chinese megacompany Tencent has taken a greater than 5% stake in TSLA

Yet another climb of more than $7 took place today upon news of Chinese internet company Tencent having acquired more than 5% of TSLA stock. The Chinese company says its stake is a friendly investment in TSLA. Take a look at the technical chart and you will see that TSLA left the upper bollinger band far behind today. The real resistance came at $280, which TSLA bounced off twice during the day. If Q1 delivery numbers are good early next week, the $280 barrier is fair game, and if Tencent continues to acquire shares of TSLA, this barrier could be breached sooner.

Of particular note is the large trading (294,000 shares) that took place during the first minute of trading at 9:30am. Such trading typically does not change the stock price much and likely indicates that a large buyer is accumulating at present.

Also noteworthy is the lack of covering by shorts. I interpret this lack of covering as being a false belief that the $280 price area is the top of the range for TSLA and it will only fall from here. The implication for us longs is that when TSLA crosses substantially above $280, the bubble bursts for the shorts, and we may see substantial covering as TSLA begins its climb into an entirely new trading range.

Telsa's resolving its merger with SolarCity and proving that SolarCity financials won't drag Tesla down has been a critical turning point for the stock. Before that date in November, many large institutional investors were not willing to invest in TSLA, and now we see worldwide attention from large firms to grab a piece of TSLA before the stock price increases further with the release of Model 3. The resolution of the merger was one of those turning points that an investor cannot ignore. Likewise, the coming volume production of a successful Model 3 is being anticipated by some firms and is already having a substantial effect on the stock price.

Will TSLA linger until the upper bb catches up before TSLA moves higher? It all depends upon news. Nonetheless, we saw today that TSLA will indeed jump above the upper bb if the news is good enough.

 

[geneclean55]

Some large purchases 80-90k are also being made soon into AH trading for the past 2 days. Late prints or maybe Tencent?

 

[adiggs]

And there's a lot of pent up need for covering with $TSLA. If a sane / reasonable level of short activity for a company is on the order of 5%, then TSLA would have 8M shares short instead of 30M.

Tencent bought about 8M shares in their 5%, so one way of thinking about the pent up buying demand in the overall short position - there are 2 and a half more Tencent purchasers already committed to the market. If you add another 5% or so for being added to the S&P 500 at some point, then that's THREE and a half more Tencents already committed to act sooner or later (months or year, maybe 2, or so).

 

[Papafox]

Some large purchases 80-90k are also being made soon into AH trading for the past 2 days. Late prints or maybe Tencent?

It's my experience that we see the kind of late print price spikes within the first 6 minutes or so after market close. I'd be inclined to believe that most price spikes and volume jumps in these first 6 minutes are late prints, but I can't say for certain. One big clue is to take a look at the price and the volume of the spike and deduce whether the combination of the two makes sense for that moment in time, given the normally low volumes traded after hours.

For example, the 85,000 shares traded at 4:07pm created a very small dip, when compared to the volume at that moment, and I'd be inclined to believe that such a large buy or sell would have created a bigger price rise or dip after hours. On the other hand, 5,000 shares traded at 4:44pm dropped the price by a couple dollars which is believable for an after hours trade of this size. Take a look, too, at how seldom TSLA traded at 275 during the market hours, and you might agree with me that this trade was more likely an actual after-hours trade, rather than a late print.

 

[Papafox]

After TSLA ran up more than 14 points in the past two trading days, we were due for today's low volume consolidation day. The stock price was well above the upper bollinger band and there wasn't strong enough news to continue a strong march up. Instead, we saw shorts sell into an additional 568,000 shares, and that was at Fidelity alone. The battle lines are being drawn, with shorts willing to dive in deeper to sell the story that TSLA only trades within the 180 to 280ish range and the stock has not only peaked but is heading down. Longs see the combination of the approaching Model 3, the maturing of Tesla Energy, and the appearance of a wealthy Tesla investor (TenCents) as strong reasons why TSLA will soon push its trading range much higher.

Here's how today's trading worked out. With the low volume and with no headlines pushing TSLA higher, the shorts came out to play. We began with an old-fashioned mandatory morning dip (except it's no longer mandatory any more), followed by short selling designed to walk the SP down in an orderly fashion throughout the day. The problem for shorts is that once TSLA bottomed out around 275.60, buyers started coming back in and marching the SP back up again. Shorts rallied their defenses at the red/green line and for the final hour and a half we saw a trading tug-of-war with shorts determined to see TSLA show red on the daily chart, even if the decline was only a penny (turns out it was 7 pennies). Simply put, today was a low-volume trading day which would have seen hungry longs push the SP a bit higher, but massive efforts by the short-sellers led to a 7 cent decline for the day.

The good news is that while this game was underway, another day advanced and if you look at the technical chart you can see that TSLA is no longer much above the upper bb. The other good news is that today's consolidation was very restrained and that such selling by the shorts is not sustainable. It's entirely possible that the stock will rise with the rise in the upper bb, but much depends upon the Q1 delivery numbers, likely to be released next week on Monday or Tuesday.

Conditions:
* Dow down 42 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.38%)
* TSLA 277.38, down 0.07 (0.03%)
* TSLA volume 3.5M shares
* Oil 49.41 up 1.04 (2.15%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 568,000 shares drawdown, 1.00%

 

[austinEV]

Other positive news:
1) All or part of the EAP reserves can be recognized in Q1. (Due to 8.1 being released this week)
2) Some tease about model Y next week (or some vehicle I assume Y)

 

[dakh]

Other positive news:
1) All or part of the EAP reserves can be recognized in Q1. (Due to 8.1 being released this week)
2) Some tease about model Y next week (or some vehicle I assume Y)

Model Y is probably the least exciting of the possibilities: truck, the MX-based bus, etc. with enough details about them would be more likely to influence share price.

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA made two runs into the 280s but settled for a small gain instead. Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA settled within the upper bollinger band at day's end, with TSLA at 277.92 and the upper bb at 279.21. You can see the sideways but slightly upper movement of TSLA back into the band over the past 3 days. Take a look at February's expedition above 280 where TSLA momentarily reached 287 and you can see similarities. Although the daily trading can go quite high on the second day above the upper bb, the trading on that day also closed with sideways trading. The news that propelled TSLA upward wasn't strong enough to keep the momentum going unless the shorts panicked and joined in the buying, but that did not happen today. I suspect we'll need to see shorts jumping ship in order to see two days of substantially higher closing prices above the upper bb.

Thus, the release of Q1 delivery numbers remains a focus in the short run. Good numbers certainly could provide the lift to bring TSLA above 280 and inspire shorts to begin an exit. Don't go anywhere, we don't have long to wait.

Conditions:
* Dow up 69 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ up 17 (0.28%)
* TSLA 277.92, up 0.54 (0.19%)
* TSLA volume 4.1M shares
* Oil 50.36, up 0.85 (1.72%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 155,000 shares drawdown, Interest 1.50%, up from 1.25%

 

[Papafox]

Consider today to be the day of investors positioning themselves for Monday's Q1 delivery numbers. You can see from pre-market trading that buyers are willing to bet on good numbers and we touched 280 before the open. Then came the greater than 100,000 shares sold short, with two mandatory morning dips, followed by a generally increasing stock price as the day went on. Right around 2pm the broader markets did a swan dive and TSLA corrected downward momentarily, but quickly pulled up from the dive because the events of Monday weigh heavier than minor macro adjustments. The decline in stock price during the final half hour of trading is no surprise, as it is profit-taking by those investors who want to take some nice gains off the table prior to Monday's numbers. There was little chance of TSLA closing above 280 today. This was the set up day, not the storm the fort day or the retreat day.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see the sideways (but slightly up) consolidation of TSLA continued today. The slow upward movement has allowed the upper bb to gain some distance today, which is a very good thing. TSLA is now nearly $4 below the upper bb and will be further below come Monday. Perhaps the biggest accomplishment of today's lukewarm trading is that it allowed the upper bb to slide higher before next week.

The Q1 delivery numbers are an unknown. No one can say with conviction that they will be a beat or a disappointment. My feeling is that even if they fall somewhat short, any resultant dip would be limited, due to the proximity of April to the beginning of Model 3 production. If the numbers are high, then we have the perfect starting number (278.xx) and a good upper bb number (284+) to get a nice run up going. I would say that if Monday's numbers are good, the upper bb would not be a constraint to where the stock climbs, mostly due to the probability of shorts joining in the buying.

Looking at the week, TSLA climbed from 263.16 to 278.30, a gain of $15.14. This is on top of last week's gain of 1.66, and the previous week's 17.81 gain.

Conditions:
* Dow down 65 (0.31%)
* NASDAQ down 3 (0.04%)
* TSLA 278.30, up 0.38 (0.14%)
* TSLA volume 3.2M shares
* Oil 50.75, up 0.4 (0.79%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 156,000 shares drawdown in morning but 104,000 shares covered in afternoon for a net of about 52,000 shares drawn down. Interest decreased from 1.25% to 1.00%.

 

[Papafox]

Fortune smiled on the longs this weekend as Tesla announced 25,000 deliveries in Q1. To no one's great surprise, these positive results were enough to send TSLA "off to the races" today. To understand how significant today's close of 298.52 is, take a look at the chart reproduced below:

Our previous intra-day high was 291.42, and the previous closing high was 286.04, both during 2014. Today TSLA left both of those numbers behind in a true break-out from its 3 year trading range.

Why the breakout today? It has to do with underlying sentiment with investors, the addition of a positive catalyst, and the removal of a potentially negative catalyst. TSLA was having trouble holding 280 recently, partially because investors felt some concern for the uncertainty of Q1 delivery numbers and ER. Would 3Q16 be the one anomaly that kept the bear thesis of "Tesla doesn't make money" alive? When the Q1 delivery numbers came in at 25,000, this development was a positive catalyst in itself, it implies that Q1 ER will be positive, and it eliminated the bear claims that 3Q16 was a contrived one-quarter-only profitable quarter. With a positive catalyst and the elimination of potentially negative catalysts in the near future, the stock lit its afterburner and took off. Just as important is the underlying sentiment of investors. Longs are bullish for the year because of Model 3. Thus we see strongly positive underlying sentiment in the longs. This sentiment is directly opposite the negative sentiment longs felt in fall of 2016 as investors feared the SolarCity merger that was coming in mid-November. If you don't understand the underlying sentiment, you won't understand how TSLA is trading. This is hugely important.

Remember that many longs were at work today and won't really comprehend what's happening with TSLA until this evening. There's plenty of reason for them to jump in tomorrow, out of fear of missing the big TSLA run up that is to come.

Interestingly, initial data shows net drawdown of short shares today. In other words, this is a rally fueled by longs. Igor Dusaniwsky says shorts lost nearly half a billion dollars today and are down $2.7B for the year. They have not given up, but the next leg of the climb might be fueled by shorts covering if enough receive margin calls tonight. If enough do, we'll see the SP rise, which will cause more margin calls, which will result in more buying to cover ... you get the idea. That's our best case short-term scenario. A negative scenario is that the shorts double-down tomorrow, and manage to push TSLA down to below 300 before the close (yes, I think we'll top it in the morning).

Driving the shorts so far is a completely different underlying sentiment, one that has been "TSLA trades in a 180 to 280 range, it's time to buy and make some money." What we're looking for tomorrow is to see if the shorts embrace this sentiment strongly enough to invest in trying to lower the SP or if this underlying sentiment gets eradicated by a second day of the breakout rally. Once shorts change their underlying sentiment, their position is a flimsy as a house of cards.

So, much of what happens tomorrow depends upon the shorts and the level of covering. Take a look at the technical chart and check out the Feb 13 and March 27 expeditions above the upper bb. In both cases, the stock went higher in the second day of trading above the upper bb, but the closing price in that second day was noticeably below the high for the day. That type of scenario may repeat tomorrow if the shorts defend 300 and we don't see significant covering by shorts. Once shorts start caving in and covering, however, it may well start a chain reaction which could take TSLA significantly higher. Personally, I think such a scenario is nearly inevitable this year, it's only a question of when.

Conditions:
* Dow down 13 (0.06%)
* NASDAQ down 17 (0.29%)
* TSLA 298.52, up 20.22 (7.27%)
* TSLA volume 13.9M shares
* Oil 50.28, up 0.04 (0.08%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: over 100,000 shares drawdown in morning

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 221092

View attachment 221093

Fortune smiled on the longs this weekend as Tesla announced 25,000 deliveries in Q1. To no one's great surprise, these positive results were enough to send TSLA "off to the races" today. To understand how significant today's close of 298.52 is, take a look at the chart reproduced below:
View attachment 221094
Our previous intra-day high was 291.42, and the previous closing high was 286.04, both during 2014. Today TSLA left both of those numbers behind in a true break-out from its 3 year trading range.

Why the breakout today? It has to do with underlying sentiment with investors, the addition of a positive catalyst, and the removal of a potentially negative catalyst. TSLA was having trouble holding 280 recently, partially because investors felt some concern for the uncertainty of Q1 delivery numbers and ER. Would 3Q16 be the one anomaly that kept the bear thesis of "Tesla doesn't make money" alive? When the Q1 delivery numbers came in at 25,000, this development was a positive catalyst in itself, it implies that Q1 ER will be positive, and it eliminated the bear claims that 3Q16 was a contrived one-quarter-only profitable quarter. With a positive catalyst and the elimination of potentially negative catalysts in the near future, the stock lit its afterburner and took off. Just as important is the underlying sentiment of investors. Longs are bullish for the year because of Model 3. Thus we see strongly positive underlying sentiment in the longs. This sentiment is directly opposite the negative sentiment longs felt in fall of 2016 as investors feared the SolarCity merger that was coming in mid-November. If you don't understand the underlying sentiment, you won't understand how TSLA is trading. This is hugely important.

Remember that many longs were at work today and won't really comprehend what's happening with TSLA until this evening. There's plenty of reason for them to jump in tomorrow, out of fear of missing the big TSLA run up that is to come.

Interestingly, initial data shows net drawdown of short shares today. In other words, this is a rally fueled by longs. Igor Dusaniwsky says shorts lost nearly half a billion dollars today and are down $2.7B for the year. They have not given up, but the next leg of the climb might be fueled by shorts covering if enough receive margin calls tonight. If enough do, we'll see the SP rise, which will cause more margin calls, which will result in more buying to cover ... you get the idea. That's our best case short-term scenario. A negative scenario is that the shorts double-down tomorrow, and manage to push TSLA down to below 300 before the close (yes, I think we'll top it in the morning).

Driving the shorts so far is a completely different underlying sentiment, one that has been "TSLA trades in a 180 to 280 range, it's time to buy and make some money." What we're looking for tomorrow is to see if the shorts embrace this sentiment strongly enough to invest in trying to lower the SP or if this underlying sentiment gets eradicated by a second day of the breakout rally. Once shorts change their underlying sentiment, their position is a flimsy as a house of cards.

So, much of what happens tomorrow depends upon the shorts and the level of covering. Take a look at the technical chart and check out the Feb 13 and March 27 expeditions above the upper bb. In both cases, the stock went higher in the second day of trading above the upper bb, but the closing price in that second day was noticeably below the high for the day. That type of scenario may repeat tomorrow if the shorts defend 300 and we don't see significant covering by shorts. Once shorts start caving in and covering, however, it may well start a chain reaction which could take TSLA significantly higher. Personally, I think such a scenario is nearly inevitable this year, it's only a question of when.

Conditions:
* Dow down 13 (0.06%)
* NASDAQ down 17 (0.29%)
* TSLA 298.52, up 20.22 (7.27%)
* TSLA volume 13.9M shares
* Oil 50.28, up 0.04 (0.08%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: over 100,000 shares drawdown in morning

i think you are right on the money in your analysis. Shorts really do not have a choice but to start covering. personally, i think the stock is starting an unstoppable run right now and will be sequentially higher very single day. if i am wrong, then the worst case scenario is a down/sideways consolidation for next 5 to 10 days then again upward march. however, i really think a sequential price appreciation is in the cards in short order

 

[neroden]

Apparently, big short-sellers are borrowing more. I guess they haven't all been margin-called yet...

With Tencent probably still buying, this is deeply unwise on their part.

We won't find out short interest as of Mar. 31 for another week (Apr. 11th). But 19% of the shares outstanding is already kind of crazy. In order of least likely to sell: Musk owns 20.6%. Tencent owns 5% -- probably more now. Other insiders own about 1%. Bailie Gifford owns 8.23%. Ron Baron's funds own 0.75%. T Rowe Price funds own 7.37%. The six Fidelity funds with the biggest holdings own 9.92% (I'm not counting the full Fidelity total as that might include retail brokerage clients, and some Fidelity funds seem to be selling their stakes.) Vanguard funds hold 3.50%. (Since Vanguard funds are mostly passive, they generally won't sell except to "rebalance", and they're mostly market-cap weighted so they'll tend to bias towards buying when the stock goes up.) Powershares QQQ holds 0.74%, and again, is a passive index fund; it won't sell TSLA unless TSLA gets to be so big that the NASDAQ 100 "modified" market-cap-weighting methodology starts to discount its market cap (which may have actually happened already). J&P(China) Capital Management, a private Chinese investment management firm, has 0.76% of the shares outstanding, and they look like long-termers to me.


Anyway, these long-term holders (and there are definitely other long-term holders) are something like 57.87% of the shares outstanding. 19% are sold short, and *someone else bought them*. Put it this way: after you remove the shares held by companies which are pretty darn sure not to sell, there are less than 69.86 million shares likely to be available for sale, plus over 31 million shares "created" by the short-sellers. Subtract another 8 million if Tencent raises its stake to 10%. To unwind their positions, the short-sellers need to buy up about 1/3 (probably more) of the "trading shares" out there. This is an invidious position for them to be in. Not a true squeeze yet... that happens when the real shares available for sale is *less* than the shares "created" by the short-sellers.

 

[Papafox]

To no one's great surprise, TSLA exceeded 300 today for the first time. More suprisingly, TSLA closed more than 3 points above it. Of particular note is the net drawdown of short shares today, rather than covering. We continue to see an ascent fueled by longs. The good news is that when an event comes along that is powerful enough to propel the SP up quickly, we have lots of shorts in this stock who will need a quick exit.

Looking at the technical chart, we see an anomaly today as we close near the top of two big up days taking place above the upper bb. Historically, the second day of trading above the upper bb has led to a substantial descent within the day's trading before end of market. That breaking of historical patterns suggests a change in underlying sentiment (to the good). Are we ready to see a consolidation day tomorrow? Looking at the technical chart, I'd say yes if TSLA trades as it did in the past, but if the shorts spook and start to cover then all bets are off. Remember, though, that sentiment of longs remains positively focused on the introduction of Model 3 and with an underlying change in sentiment comes a change in the rules. Let's see if we can figure out the relationship between the Post-300 TSLA and the upper bb in future trading sessions.

Here's a tip of the hat to trendtrader007 for reminding us that we don't want to bail early when a stock begins a breakout. Moreover, Elon's taunting of the shorts suggests he has more good news up his sleeve. Can't wait to see it.

Conditions:
* Dow UP 39 (0.19%)
* NASDAQ UP 4 (0.07%)
* TSLA 303.70, UP 5.18 (1.74%)
* TSLA volume 10.0M shares
* Oil 51.03, up 0.79 (1.57%)
* Morning's and afternoon's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 163,000 shares, 1.0% (and 0 contracts available at Fidelity)

 

[TrendTrader007]

Apparently, big short-sellers are borrowing more. I guess they haven't all been margin-called yet...

With Tencent probably still buying, this is deeply unwise on their part.

We won't find out short interest as of Mar. 31 for another week (Apr. 11th). But 19% of the shares outstanding is already kind of crazy. In order of least likely to sell: Musk owns 20.6%. Tencent owns 5% -- probably more now. Other insiders own about 1%. Bailie Gifford owns 8.23%. Ron Baron's funds own 0.75%. T Rowe Price funds own 7.37%. The six Fidelity funds with the biggest holdings own 9.92% (I'm not counting the full Fidelity total as that might include retail brokerage clients, and some Fidelity funds seem to be selling their stakes.) Vanguard funds hold 3.50%. (Since Vanguard funds are mostly passive, they generally won't sell except to "rebalance", and they're mostly market-cap weighted so they'll tend to bias towards buying when the stock goes up.) Powershares QQQ holds 0.74%, and again, is a passive index fund; it won't sell TSLA unless TSLA gets to be so big that the NASDAQ 100 "modified" market-cap-weighting methodology starts to discount its market cap (which may have actually happened already). J&P(China) Capital Management, a private Chinese investment management firm, has 0.76% of the shares outstanding, and they look like long-termers to me.


Anyway, these long-term holders (and there are definitely other long-term holders) are something like 57.87% of the shares outstanding. 19% are sold short, and *someone else bought them*. Put it this way: after you remove the shares held by companies which are pretty darn sure not to sell, there are less than 69.86 million shares likely to be available for sale, plus over 31 million shares "created" by the short-sellers. Subtract another 8 million if Tencent raises its stake to 10%. To unwind their positions, the short-sellers need to buy up about 1/3 (probably more) of the "trading shares" out there. This is an invidious position for them to be in. Not a true squeeze yet... that happens when the real shares available for sale is *less* than the shares "created" by the short-sellers.

WOW! thanks for the comprehensive analysis. highly pertinent