Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Many of us expected a good opening today, due to the strong finish on Friday and the typical Monday morning amateur hour buying, and we weren't disappointed. The gains were lost during the day, however, as traders figured that this particular short-term rally (begun Friday) had probably worked its way out and a consolidation stage was more likely in the near term. Balancing this short-term view is the very bullish long-term view held by many, and thus you saw volatility and high volume today as short-term-oriented traders were unloading some shares while longer-term-oriented buyers were picking up shares. Throw in a couple hundred thousand shares shorted today and you have a volatile mixture. Taking a look at the volume spikes, we saw negative trading spikes as high as 33,000 trades/min at 12:05pm and a positive spike of 47,000 shares/min at 2:31pm. The end of day 4:00pm trading including a wopping 142,000 shares. The 2:31pm spike could have been the result of Hedge fund manager Palihapitiya calling Elon Musk "our generation's Thomas Edison" and saying why the convertible bonds are such a good buy right now. The 4:00pm buying spree was likely big or institutional buyers backing the truck up to take on a big load.

Conditions:
* Dow up 5 (0.03%)
* NASDAQ up 2 (0.03%)
* TSLA 307.19, down 1.16 (0.37%)
* TSLA volume 6.9M shares
* Oil 46.43, up 0.21 (0.45%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 218,000 shares drawdown at 1.00%

 

[Papafox]

TSLA found its mojo today (without the need for a few days of consolidation, as I had thought). Macros were mixed, which was a perfect environment for TSLA, and volume was heavy. In particular, we saw up to 111,000 share/min highest volume during the first hour of trading and the final minute of trading shows 167,000 shares traded. Amazingly, shorts haven't seemed to be budging from their positions yet, with a big drawdown this morning and more than 31 million shares still short. When Tesla delivers the Model 3 and other good news later this year, the exit of shorts could make for a splendid stock price jump. Don't miss it.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA is still shy of its all time high. Most notable, though, is the day's close just below the upper bollinger band. We could rise above the band tomorrow, but as a general rule the SP doesn't typically stay above it for more than 2 days in a row.

Conditions:
* Dow down 37 (0.17%)
* NASDAQ up 18 (0.29%)
* TSLA 321.26, up 14.07 (4.58%)
* TSLA volume 9.6M shares
* Oil 45.88, down 0.55 (1.18%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 188,000 shares drawdown at 1.00%

 

[Papafox]

I'm suspecting we had a mandatory morning dip, courtesy of our friends the shorts, but it didn't last too long and TSLA had a positive day all the same. The best news is that TSLA climbed right into the close and the daily high took place in after-hours trading, which is positive. The most likely catalyst for today's climb (particularly the afternoon finale) was word that the Tesla roof is now on sale and will have an attractive pricing. With this pricing, the roof is a no-brainer for a large number of people and it will also provide a catalyst to PowerWall sales.

Note that we had a perfect macro environment: porridge not too hot (macros way up) nor porridge too cold (macros way down), but just right.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that although TSLA did not set a new intraday ATH, it did set a new closing ATH of 325.22. Congratulations are in order for all longs. Take a look at the closing price being exactly on the upper bb. If you were trying to guess today's close, the top of the bb would be a great place to guess on a positive day. Let's see if the upper bb provides a limit to tomorrow's closing price, if the stock closes up.

Conditions:
* Dow down 33 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ up 9 (0.14%)
* TSLA 325.22, up 3.96 (1.23%)
* TSLA volume 5.7M shares
* Oil 47.45, up 0.12 (0.25%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate:NA
* News: Tesla roof details were released today and roof is officially on sale now

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA started with some amateur hour buying, and then the SP dropped quickly, likely due to short selling (notice the dips followed by quick near-recoveries?). As the day went on, buyers began to rule and the share prices walked up in a near linear fashion (excluding the short-sell dips) to the red/green transition point where it hesitated and then was pushed down (likely from short-selling) in a low volume environment. The shorts likely saved themselves the fear-generation that a new ATH could have created today, but today's trading must be disconcerting to them, due to the steady recovery from the morning dips and the near-close recovery from the most recent push down. It seems to me that a large institutional buyer would be driving a slow uptick in the stock price such as we saw today but they'd likely take a breather when shorts are selling so that the SP drops a bit and then they resume the buying. If this pattern is true, then the shorts are playing chumps to the big buyers at the moment. It is a game that the shorts will grow fatigued with playing before long. Today the porridge was slightly cool, which should have still been a good environment for TSLA, so we can't blame the trading weakness on macros.

Yesterday and today, NVIDIA traded up quite a bit (up 4.3% today) and this stock might have siphoned some investor dollars away from TSLA today.

Earlier today, the upper bb stood a shade over 327, but it dropped a bit with the end of today's trading. Notice that today's trading peaked right below the upper bb, but with the upper bb at about 327 at the time TSLA peaked, other factors (such as short selling) are more likely the cause for the reversal.

Conditions:
* Dow down 24 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ down 13 (0.22%)
* TSLA 323.10, down 2.12 (0.65%)
* TSLA volume 4.6M shares
* Oil 47.76, up 0.43 (0.91%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[Papafox]

In the absence of news today, TSLA took its cues from the NASDAQ, see below. A significant number of shares (155,000+) traded hands during the first minute following the bell. For the week, TSLA's closed at 324.81, up from last Friday's 308.35, a gain of $16.46. It's hard to believe that just 8 days ago TSLA was trading for less than $300. The climb upwards continues and short covering has yet to kick in. Enjoy a relaxing weekend, longs, you've earned it.

Today's trading was positive enough that I expect to see a Monday morning amateur hour bump up in the stock price unless the shorts double-down and sell substantially.

Conditions:
* Dow down 23 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.09%)
* TSLA 324.81, up 1.71 (0.53%)
* TSLA volume 4.1M shares
* Oil 47.88, up 0.05 (0.1%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA, 1.00%

 

[Papafox]

Late last night, some members reported that TSLA was trading down nearly 2% on the Borse. We couldn't figure out why at the time, but today we know that the Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley downgrade of TSLA to hold (but no change in price target) is the catalyst for this drop which hit TSLA pretty hard today. In recent months, MS and Goldman Sachs were perhaps the two concerns which had the most ability to sway the market with TSLA projections. Goldman lost most of its credibility in recent downgrades, particularly with the recent run up in TSLA. Morgan Stanley retains a fair amount of credibility and is trying to leverage it. Today Jonas showed once again that his words can move the market, as far as TSLA is concerned. Note two things, though: MS decreased its holdings of TSLA in the recent past and might benefit from a dip (and an ability to get in). Jonas also has based his price target on an unrealistically-low expectation for Model 3 production ramping. Consequently, Jonas is setting things up for an upgrade in a couple months, and this downgrade was part of that process. When Model 3 is confirmed to be ramping on schedule, Jonas will upgrade, he will get a feather in his cap for moving the stock price again, and Morgan Stanley's top customers will likely get a hint that the upgrade and a rise in the stock price are coming. It's all part of the game. This is why I bake in "sugar happens" with my techniques for investing in TSLA. The short term is notoriously difficult to play because you are not included in advanced whispers about coming Wall Street manipulations. Long-term, though, TSLA will soar if it delivers both quantity of products and decent gross margins.Play the smart bet, which is the long-duration long game.

Conditions:
* Dow up 85 (0.41%)
* NASDAQ up 28 (0.46%)
* TSLA 316.88 down 8.93 (2.75%)
* TSLA volume 7.6M shares
* Oil 48.9, up 0.05 (0.10%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA, 1.00%

 

[bdy0627]

This is really helpful. Thanks!

 

[Papafox]

Today we saw volatile trading on light to moderate volume. What's impressive is the tendency for TSLA to recover today any time it was pushed down. We saw the mandatory morning dip on opening turn into a near-vertical rally, which dipped and then turned into a series of mini run-ups. When the stock dipped below the red/green line (likely with help from short-sellers), the stock posted a nice recovery into close. Today would have been a good day for the shorts to build upon the drops of yesterday, but it didn't happen. Hungry buyers remain in the wild. Notice the dips these days often fall into the category of mandatory morning dip (shortly after market open) or during the early afternoon low volume time period when short sellers can get the most bang for the buck. When volume picks up, though, so does the stock price.

Just how big was yesterday's dip, which I'll refer to as the "Adam Jonas dip"? Looking at trading since December, you can see that the dip barely registered on the Richter scale. TSLA is by nature a volatile stock and such dips are rather tame compared to what we've seen in the not-so-distant past.

Conditions:
* Dow down 2 (0.01%)
* NASDAQ up 20 (0.33%)
* TSLA 317.01, up 1.13 (0.36%)
* TSLA volume 4.1M shares
* Oil 48.11, down 0.55 (1.13%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[Papafox]

Today the broader markets dropped significantly on concerns about the Trump-Comey controversy. The daily trading chart for TSLA is similar in trajectory to the Dow and to the NASDAQ today, and so there seems to be little that is Tesla-specific with this drop. Although TSLA was down 3.44% today, it was not that much steeper than the NASDAQ's 2.57% drop and much less than Nvidia's 6.64% drop. High flyers are naturally taking a bigger hit than typical stocks.

What are the chances of a Trump impeachment and ultimate removal from office? I think they are rather small if no new evidence pops up. Trump is accused of suggesting to Comey that he take it easy on Flynn because he is a good man. This suggestion would not be construed as "bribery, treason, and other high crimes and misdemeanors" by many. Next, the house would need to impeach and the Senate would need to convict. Both houses are controlled by Republicans, which makes an impeachment and a conviction unlikely, given the existing evidence. Then there's Trump himself, who would likely not bow out if the House impeaches him. He would likely carry the battle to the Senate, which doubles the difficulties. In order to get a majority, some Republicans would need to join Democrats and if the far right is where the Republicans come from, such a move would tear the party apart. Thus, if no more-severe evidence pops up, I would be very surprised is Trump is removed from office. Nonetheless, the process can be disturbing to the market and if you plan to buy the dip, timing will be critical. Remember that TSLA has an ability to run uphill quickly when the storm is near its end. Also, keep in mind that if evidence beyond our knowledge pops up, a recovery could be short-lived. This is a difficult event to trade because new information can skew the market response considerably one way or the other.

Conditions:
* Dow down 373 (1.78%)
* NASDAQ down 159 (2.57%)
* TSLA 206.11, down 10.90 (3.44%)
* TSLA volume 6.7M shares
* Oil 49.07, up 0.41 (0.84%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[erthquake]

View attachment 227320
Today the broader markets dropped significantly on concerns about the Trump-Comey controversy. The daily trading chart for TSLA is similar in trajectory to the Dow and to the NASDAQ today, and so there seems to be little that is Tesla-specific with this drop. Although TSLA was down 3.44% today, it was not that much steeper than the NASDAQ's 2.57% drop and much less than Nvidia's 6.64% drop. High flyers are naturally taking a bigger hit than typical stocks.

What are the chances of a Trump impeachment and ultimate removal from office? I think they are rather small if no new evidence pops up. Trump is accused of suggesting to Comey that he take it easy on Flynn because he is a good man. This suggestion would not be construed as "bribery, treason, and other high crimes and misdemeanors" by many. Next, the house would need to impeach and the Senate would need to convict. Both houses are controlled by Republicans, which makes an impeachment and a conviction unlikely, given the existing evidence. Then there's Trump himself, who would likely not bow out if the House impeaches him. He would likely carry the battle to the Senate, which doubles the difficulties. In order to get a majority, some Republicans would need to join Democrats and if the far right is where the Republicans come from, such a move would tear the party apart. Thus, if no more-severe evidence pops up, I would be very surprised is Trump is removed from office. Nonetheless, the process can be disturbing to the market and if you plan to buy the dip, timing will be critical. Remember that TSLA has an ability to run uphill quickly when the storm is near its end. Also, keep in mind that if evidence beyond our knowledge pops up, a recovery could be short-lived. This is a difficult event to trade because new information can skew the market response considerably one way or the other.

Conditions:
* Dow down 373 (1.78%)
* NASDAQ down 159 (2.57%)
* TSLA 206.11, down 10.90 (3.44%)
* TSLA volume 6.7M shares
* Oil 49.07, up 0.41 (0.84%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

Excellent summary!

 

[Papafox]

Thank goodness some sanity intervened in the Comey-Trump fight with the appointment of Mueller to head the investigation. This appointment also takes away from the distractions of various legislative committees grilling individuals. This return of sanity led to increased comfort in the markets today, and thus we saw a recovery.

For the week so far, TSLA has been hit with a one-two punch, first from Adam Jonas on Sunday night and then from concerns about the Trump. Friday will be interesting because often there's late-afternoon buying in anticipation of Monday morning amateur hour buying. Let's hope the macros stay settled and Tesla regains some lost ground.

Conditions:
* Dow up 56 (0.27%)
* NASDAQ up 44 (0.73%)
* TSLA 313.06, up 6.95 (2.27%)
* TSLA volume 5.6M shares
* Oil 49.35, up 0.28 (0.57%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[Papafox]

Today the buyers were ready to rumble in pre-market trading, but the porridge was a bit too hot and day traders migrated away after a slight dip into the red. As the day progressed, a story by The Guardian that allegedly Musk had been quoted as saying TSLA was priced too high started being picked up by other news outlets and the stock price descended into negative territory. Here's hoping we receive some more definitive news on whether this is a real, recent quote, or a rehash of a 2013 quote. If it is a rehash, expect a recovery.

For the week, TSLA closed at 310.83, down 13.98 from last Friday's 324.81. It has been a challenging week with the Adam Jonas downgrade, the broader market Trump scare, and then today with the alleged quote from Musk regarding TSLA valuation. Nonetheless, if anyone 6 months ago was told we'd be glum because TSLA was trading at ONLY 310.83, they'd surely suggest professional help.

Conditions:
* Dow up 142 (0.69%)
* NASDAQ up 29 (0.47%)
* TSLA 310.83, down 2.23 (0.71%)
* TSLA volume 4.7M shares
* Oil 49.35, up 0.28 (0.57%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA started the week with its usual spurt of amateur hour buying but it quickly dropped into the red, reflecting fears that last week had been a negative week and this week might continue the trend. The good news is that whenever TSLA starts to recover, it tends to head up quickly. Notice the recovery about 11:30am and the recovery into close. Buyers are still out there. Today was a "porridge too hot" day with the broader markets doing very well and not an optimal trading day for TSLA, and traders who took their money elsewhere for the day might be responsible for the late afternoon recovery.

Overall, I see TSLA as having positive long-term trading sentiment but the past week's losses have led some traders to lighten their loads recently. I see a dip into the 280s as possible if there's negative news of substance, but I don't see lower. On the other hand, we may not see a dip at all, and I think there are lots of TSLA traders who are playing the dip game but plan to get back on board prior to the release of Model 3. Thus, this is a stock that is still spring-loaded to go up.

To consider the upside potential of TSLA, please consider the chart above. I include the consolidation before and after the 287.39 peak and the recent trading because there may be value in comparing them. In the consolidation before and after the climb to 287.39, TSLA spent close to 2 months trading in the 250s and 260s. Take a look now at trading around 300, and we see we've spent nearly that amount of time here after the excursions to 327.66 and 327.00. This stock has a tendency to continue climbing when it's climbing, but it also will sink back a bit and hover for weeks when the market feels that the stock might have run up too quickly. The approach of July 1 and Model 3 production could be the catalyst that allows TSLA to break out of a nearly 2 month consolidation and make nice strides upward. Note: I am no expert on technicals. I just report patterns that look promising for a Tesla trader to consider. If Tesla shrugs off its consolidation within the next week or so and begins a serious climb again, then I will feel vindicated for comparing these two consolidation periods on the way up.

Note the recent climb in oil.

Conditions:
* Dow up 90 (0.43%)
* NASDAQ up 50 (0.82%)
* TSLA 310.35, down 0.48 (0.15%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 51.19, up 0.06 (0.12%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[Papafox]

Pardon the inferior chart, it was all that was left in late hours. Wish I could have accessed a computer earlier today.

Today was an odd trading day. Over 100,000 shares traded hands in the first minute of opening. Monday showed a nice late afternoon recovery, which often bodes well for the next day's trading. Broader markets were up modestly, which also is a good environment for TSLA. After the nice start, we saw a steady descent until late afternoon when it looked like the stock was going to recover some lost ground, and then the selling volume picked up again. Take a look at the volume at TSLA approached the end of the day. Although the stock price was not changing dramatically, the volume really spiked in the final 20 minutes. None of the news stories circulating today justified this price action. If we knew the quantity of short shares drawn down today, perhaps that info would shed some light on what was going on. No matter. TSLA is a volatile stock and sometimes does the unexpected. A decline for no good reason often is seen as a buying opportunity, so let's see what Wednesday holds. Sometimes a decline for no apparent reason is really a decline for a reason but we aren't in the loop. Other times, shorts will sell ferociously on a day to create the illusion that investors are worried. We certainly have seen plenty of the latter strategy during the past year.

The shorts may be trying to push TSLA below the 50 day moving average to create concern with technical traders, but take a look at the technical chart from yesterday. The stock dipped a bit below the 50 dma on its 287 peak consolidation and then instead of going down it went up above 327. We may see a similar performance again due to the general reluctance to sell prior to the July introduction of Model 3.

Conditions:
* Dow up 43 (0.21%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.08%)
* TSLA 303.86, down 6.49 (2.09%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 51.75, up 0.28 (0.54%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[Papafox]

The verdict is in: The market voted that yesterday's decline was a nonsense dip, which led to today being considered a buying opportunity. If you successfully played yesterday's dip, congratulations. If you held firm as a long, congratulations too, because these dips are mouse nuts compared to the potential upside when Tesla successfully cranks up Model 3 production. The day's high occurred 3 minutes prior to the end of trading, which is a positive indication regarding the start of tomorrow's trading.

Conditions:
* Dow up 75 (0.36%)
* NASDAQ up 24 (0.40%)
* TSLA 310.22, up 6.36 (2.09%)
* TSLA volume 5.0M shares
* Oil 51.26, down 0.21 (0.41%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[neroden]

What are the chances of a Trump impeachment and ultimate removal from office? I think they are rather small if no new evidence pops up. Trump is accused of suggesting to Comey that he take it easy on Flynn because he is a good man.

I think it's a LOT more likely than that. Trump then fired Comey -- and then, worst of all, announced on television that he fired Comey in order to make Comey stop the Russia investigation. That's a *confession* of obstruction of justice.

This suggestion would not be construed as "bribery, treason, and other high crimes and misdemeanors" by many. Next, the house would need to impeach and the Senate would need to convict. Both houses are controlled by Republicans, which makes an impeachment and a conviction unlikely, given the existing evidence. Then there's Trump himself, who would likely not bow out if the House impeaches him. He would likely carry the battle to the Senate, which doubles the difficulties. In order to get a majority, some Republicans would need to join Democrats and if the far right is where the Republicans come from, such a move would tear the party apart.

On the other hand, half the Republicans in Congress already hate Trump, he's already tearing the party apart, he seems unable to staff the White House, and he seems to be increasingly unpopular. They might decide to "throw him overboard" in order to save the party. Particularly since they all seem to like Pence. (I don't. But they do.)

I think this would have only minor effects on Tesla. Though Pence might actually be a substantially worse President for renewable energy than Trump is, I think it wouldn't hurt Tesla -- I think the most he could do is remove subsidies, which is unimportant. I doubt he could institute a "tax on the sun" like Spain did, and like Denmark is trying to do, or anything similar which might really hurt.

If there were a short-term "impeachment dip", I'd be buying.

 

[joefee]

"these dips are mouse nuts...@PF" Love it!

 

[Papafox]

I think it's a LOT more likely than that. Trump then fired Comey -- and then, worst of all, announced on television that he fired Comey in order to make Comey stop the Russia investigation. That's a *confession* of obstruction of justice.


On the other hand, half the Republicans in Congress already hate Trump, he's already tearing the party apart, he seems unable to staff the White House, and he seems to be increasingly unpopular. They might decide to "throw him overboard" in order to save the party. Particularly since they all seem to like Pence. (I don't. But they do.)

I think this would have only minor effects on Tesla. Though Pence might actually be a substantially worse President for renewable energy than Trump is, I think it wouldn't hurt Tesla -- I think the most he could do is remove subsidies, which is unimportant. I doubt he could institute a "tax on the sun" like Spain did, and like Denmark is trying to do, or anything similar which might really hurt.

If there were a short-term "impeachment dip", I'd be buying.

The kind of evidence of wrongdoing to justify the removal of Trump from office has not surfaced yet. Keep an eye on the news and please share with us in the more frequently read threads if you hear of solid evidence coming forward. Only then will I join you in expecting such a dip. Is such evidence possible? Of course. Is it almost certain? No way. Telling Comey that he ought to go easy on Flynn because he's a good man is simply not enough. Ditto with firing Comey. The man was way too political to make a good head of the FBI. Let's both be objective in looking at this issue.

Here's my thought process:
* In order for Trump to be motivated to cover up a crime of plotting with the Russians to disrupt the election, he first would have to know of such a crime.
* If Trump knew of such a crime, the Russians could easily blackmail or expose him because they know about it too. What we're seeing from Trump, though, are actions that tend to antagonize the Russians: U.S. bombing of troops in Syria that are allied with Russia, bolstering Arab resolve against Iran, promoting growth of the U.S. oil sector, which will hurt Russian exports, etc.
* Therefore, since Trump is antagonizing the people who could blackmail or expose him, they probably would release damaging info if it existed, but we see no evidence of it.
* Finally, why would Russia prefer Trump over Clinton? Trump's rhetoric towards Putin was somewhat disarming, but other than that Trump is perceived as more of a hard-liner in trade issues, in bolstering strong allies who typically oppose the Russians, and in encouraging significant growth of U.S. oil production. The Russians would have to be nuts to prefer him to Hillary.

 

[neroden]

The kind of evidence of wrongdoing to justify the removal of Trump from office has not surfaced yet. Keep an eye on the news and please share with us in the more frequently read threads if you hear of solid evidence coming forward. Only then will I join you in expecting such a dip. Is such evidence possible? Of course. Is it almost certain? No way. Telling Comey that he ought to go easy on Flynn because he's a good man is simply not enough. Ditto with firing Comey. The man was way too political to make a good head of the FBI.

And if Trump had stopped with the *official* letter about firing Comey, which gives a perfectly reasonable reason for firing Comey (mishandling of the Clinton email business) it would have ended there.

It's Trump's interview *after the fact* (with Lester Holt of NBC News) where he really steps in it, where he openly admits that the reason in the letter was a pretext and that he was really firing Comey to try to stop the Russia investigation, which is really going to get him in trouble. This is actually sufficient evidence to justify the removal of Trump from office, based on the Nixon precedents. Let's stay evidence-based here.

The short timeline as stated by Matt Yglesias here:
The case for impeaching Trump — and fast

• In February, President Trump met with FBI Director James Comey and asked Comey to drop investigations of Michael Flynn and tell the public that Trump’s ties to Russia were not under investigation. Trump also repeatedly denounced the whole idea of an investigation in public statements and tweets.
• In March, Comey clarified to Congress and the public that a very real, very serious, ongoing investigation was underway.
• In April, Trump fired Comey. He put out an implausible pretext for the firing, and then quickly got bored with the thin deception and explained on national television that he really fired Comey because he was frustrated about the Russia situation.

That’s the entirety of the case. Trump was meddling with an FBI investigation, he fired the FBI director when he wouldn’t go along with it, then he lied about why he’d fired the FBI director, and then later he confessed the truth.

This is *damning*.

The total number of times he's interfered is actually even larger than I'd realized:
The many ways Trump has tried to intervene in the Russia investigation, in one chart

Nobody seems to know why Trump felt the need to spout off in the interview, but the fact that he can't even practice plausible deniability, and seems to lack the basic politician's ability to keep his mouth shut, is going to make most of the Republicans in Congress really, *really* leery of supporting him.

There's a basic market principle here which means that Trump's removal would make stocks go up. Markets hate uncertainty. Trump seems to be a fount of uncertainty. If he's removed from office, Pence is considered more *stable* by *everyone*. I think markets would boom.

 

[kenliles]

Ditto with firing Comey. The man was way too political to make a good head of the FBI.

That sounds like why you might fire him, rather than why Trump says he fired him; both to NBC news and reportedly to the Russian ambassador himself.

Report: Trump Told Russians He Fired 'Nut Job' Comey Because Of Investigation

Trump has now admitted he fired Comey because of the Russia investigation

It's possible no amount of evidence will result in removal, even when provided by Trump himself. In addition, the Independent Prosecutor has months of work to do that won't be public unless charges are brought or leaked.

I agree it's not tradeable currently, but it is clearly an important piece of the risk equation. Since it's up to Congress, it's impossible to know if 'enough' evidence is even possible or what evidence would constitute that decision.

My biggest concern actually, is what effect the pressure of the evidence and investigation has on Trump's decisions and actions. If you follow the stories on this, it's clear it gets closer on a daily basis.

My basic point is, the effect on your investments won't turn on whether Trump is impeached or not, but on the impact of its potential and process.
That's the bigger risk here - and that means following more than 'sufficient evidence to justify removal' - It means following the correlating effects to economic decisions and the market's reaction to them.