Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[erthquake]

The kind of evidence of wrongdoing to justify the removal of Trump from office has not surfaced yet. Keep an eye on the news and please share with us in the more frequently read threads if you hear of solid evidence coming forward. Only then will I join you in expecting such a dip. Is such evidence possible? Of course. Is it almost certain? No way. Telling Comey that he ought to go easy on Flynn because he's a good man is simply not enough. Ditto with firing Comey. The man was way too political to make a good head of the FBI. Let's both be objective in looking at this issue.

Here's my thought process:
* In order for Trump to be motivated to cover up a crime of plotting with the Russians to disrupt the election, he first would have to know of such a crime.
* If Trump knew of such a crime, the Russians could easily blackmail or expose him because they know about it too. What we're seeing from Trump, though, are actions that tend to antagonize the Russians: U.S. bombing of troops in Syria that are allied with Russia, bolstering Arab resolve against Iran, promoting growth of the U.S. oil sector, which will hurt Russian exports, etc.
* Therefore, since Trump is antagonizing the people who could blackmail or expose him, they probably would release damaging info if it existed, but we see no evidence of it.
* Finally, why would Russia prefer Trump over Clinton? Trump's rhetoric towards Putin was somewhat disarming, but other than that Trump is perceived as more of a hard-liner in trade issues, in bolstering strong allies who typically oppose the Russians, and in encouraging significant growth of U.S. oil production. The Russians would have to be nuts to prefer him to Hillary.

It's widely known that Putin hates Hillary Clinton. She is/was a very anti-Putin hawk. It's coming out now that Russia was trying to influence Trump's advisors, the ones that he listens to for hit rhetoric. Trump's dealings with Syria, Arab sentiment, and US oil, are a minor irritant to Russia. However, Trump's attempts, intentional or not, to erode and weaken NATO are much more significant and a net benefit to Russia.

That said, I've seen numerous experts (full disclosure, mostly on CNN) who say that forcibly removing Trump via impeachment would be very difficult unless something truly egregious comes to light. I now think it's most likely that Trump will remain in office for his full term, but he and the Republicans will accomplish little. At the moment, the most likely scenario for Trump leaving early is if the Republicans completely turn their backs on him, and he gets fed up, takes his ball and goes home, so to speak. This is still less likely than Trump finishing his term.

 

[Papafox]

This morning's opening dip strikes me as an unsuccessful attempt by shorts to derail the stock price recovery of TSLA, which is now in its second day. Little more than a month remains before the Model 3 event and the beginning of production. Nonetheless, for the past 2 1/2 months, the number of shares sold short has remained fairly constant at 31 million. Will we see 31 million shares still sold short on July 1? I think not, because many shorts recognize the danger of holding a short position when Model 3 makes its debut. Thus, some time between now and July 1, we're going to see some covering take place, and this covering will combine with long buying to send TSLA higher. According to Vgrinshpun's posts, we're seeing a move by shorts toward covering positions, rather than toward more drawdowns. I believe the dam the shorts have built already has visible cracks in it. Three events last week pushed TSLA down, and Monday's and Tuesday's losses this week consisted of pressure by shorts and by fearful weak longs, responding to last week's drop.

If you plan to buy more TSLA before the reveal, I believe it is chancy to sit on the sidelines at this point, waiting for a deeper dip. Tuesday may well have been the deepest dip you see between now and July 1. Unless there's macro issues or bad news regarding TSLA, I think the big dip the shorts have been hoping for before July will never come and once they recognize it, some will start covering.

Conditions:
* Dow up 71(0.34%)
* NASDAQ up 42 (0.69%)
* TSLA 316.83, up 6.61 (2.13%)
* TSLA volume 5.0M shares
* Oil 48.75, down 0.15 (0.31%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: Net covering recently, 0.75% interest rate

 

[ValueAnalyst]

View attachment 228434
This morning's opening dip strikes me as an unsuccessful attempt by shorts to derail the stock price recovery of TSLA, which is now in its second day. Little more than a month remains before the Model 3 event and the beginning of production. Nonetheless, for the past 2 1/2 months, the number of shares sold short has remained fairly constant at 31 million. Will we see 31 million shares still sold short on July 1? I think not, because many shorts recognize the danger of holding a short position when Model 3 makes its debut. Thus, some time between now and July 1, we're going to see some covering take place, and this covering will combine with long buying to send TSLA higher. According to Vgrinshpun's posts, we're seeing a move by shorts toward covering positions, rather than toward more drawdowns. I believe the dam the shorts have built already has visible cracks in it. Three events last week pushed TSLA down, and Monday's and Tuesday's losses this week consisted of pressure by shorts and by fearful weak longs, responding to last week's drop.

If you plan to buy more TSLA before the reveal, I believe it is chancy to sit on the sidelines at this point, waiting for a deeper dip. Tuesday may well have been the deepest dip you see between now and July 1. Unless there's macro issues or bad news regarding TSLA, I think the big dip the shorts have been hoping for before July will never come and once they recognize it, some will start covering.

Conditions:
* Dow up 71(0.34%)
* NASDAQ up 42 (0.69%)
* TSLA 316.83, up 6.61 (2.13%)
* TSLA volume 5.0M shares
* Oil 48.75, down 0.15 (0.31%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: Net covering recently, 0.75% interest rate

I approve this message.

And may I add that it will only take the bolded word above to ignite the mother of all short squeezes?

 

[neroden]

My basic point is, the effect on your investments won't turn on whether Trump is impeached or not, but on the impact of its potential and process.
That's the bigger risk here - and that means following more than 'sufficient evidence to justify removal' - It means following the correlating effects to economic decisions and the market's reaction to them.

Hmmm. So you're thinking this might be a classic "down on uncertainty, up on certainty" situation for the stock market -- down because it's unclear what will happen, up once it becomes clear (one way or the other)?

 

[kenliles]

Hmmm. So you're thinking this might be a classic "down on uncertainty, up on certainty" situation for the stock market -- down because it's unclear what will happen, up once it becomes clear (one way or the other)?

Exactly.

I don't think the (equity)markets at large care who's in charge and even what the general policies are (although can effect specific industries and segments of course).
[to be clear, I care, but not the markets; As a human being, I am unequivacally embarrassed by Trump and crew]

But the uncertainty of distruption is traded not invested (this is more prevalent today than in the past, now expanded from short term to medium term). This uncertainty can even extend to war and social unrest due to the political leadership; Those events will cause corrective trading, but won't result in long term valuation changes. Absent a financial or monetary (bank induced) crisis, the maximum downside risk is months or perhaps a year/2.

Bottom line for my TSLA investment is as follows:
Tesla WILL be the most important investment opportunity available over the next 5+ years; Concurrent with:
Trump (and associated administration) being perhaps the worst possible political/social leadership imaginable for that time period (in fact historically, which induces the uncertainty at every step). Since Republicans control congress- this will construct a semi-permanent series of large events yielding uncertainty over that same time period. Albeit not a another financial-based catastrophy still in the minds of investors from 2008, creating more associative uncertainty.

This will create terrible conditions for time based CORE holdings - Even LEAPS (if you can trade them right- fine but not core for the 5+ years)-
Likewise since no return to Great Depression or Great Recission seems likely (given data and even Trump), it would be foolish to be in cash and not in TSLA.

Therefore, I'm playing a large scale, long time constant investment on exactly what the analysis tells me (and my experience). As such, I've gone all common so can ride through any war, any social disruption, any sell the news on political uncertainty, etc. But Concurrently have TRIPLED my core common position to see all the benefits of expected Tesla growth.

Younger investors may see today's situation as just another chapter in out sociology-political history- I disagree- Trump and associated is new to the markets, new to US history, etc. At the same time the market will move forward and so will Tesla, and so will I

This is going to be a unique cross-correlated time in history and I'm using all my experience to adjust to it. With both aggressive and counter-aggressive strategies.

I see this as an investment Hamonic requiringlow frequency, long time constant, but aggressive formulation.

Those not familiar, keep in mind,
with lots of common stock, when TSLA falls due to 'market sell the uncertainly',
It's easily leveraged at that time, to DITM LEAPS for subsequent 'buy on certainty'. If you hold common for very long range investment it doesn't have to be static, while still benefittig from all the gains. Use your trading experience in short term events and apply it to current situation for your long term hold...

Plus the extra sleep sure helps judgements !

Best to all my TMC investor friends!

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA closed very near to its closing ATH in a strong finish for the week. It was a perfect setup for TSLA: Neutral macros and a convincing swing from a downward trajectory earlier in the week to a rally in the final 3 days of the week. The close at 325.14 exceeded last Friday's close of 310.83 by $14.31. As I said previously, both the 287ish peak consolidation and the current consolidation lasted two months. The need to consolidate (and thereby gain confidence that this level of pricing can be maintained) has been met. Today's climb has the robust character of the kind of climbs that led away from the 287ish consolidation and took us well above $300. It's off to the races if shorts increase their covering, Tesla provides convincing evidence that Model 3 is still very much on schedule, or a combination of the above.

What to expect for Tuesday morning? Typically we see substantial buying during the first hour of trading following a weekend. That process should be exaggerated Tuesday as the market opens after a 3 day weekend. Further, TSLA not only approached its ATH closing level today, it did so right at the end of the trading day in heavy volume and then scooted higher in after-hours trading. Don't be surprised if we top the intra-day ATH fairly early on Tuesday and that event sends the stock higher. It may be the old 1-2-3-4 punch. Shorts may be trying to cap below the ATH, but they almost certainly lack the horsepower to do so these days with the volume we've been seeing.

This has been a fun week to call as I think we really were able to read the market and anticipate its next moves. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow down 3 (0.01%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.08%)
* TSLA 325.14, up 8.31 (2.62%)
* TSLA volume 7.8M shares
* Oil 49.8, up 0.9 (1.84%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate:

 

[Papafox]

Here's hoping that we can stay focused on daily performance of TSLA in this thread and avoid having this thread turn into a Trump discussion location. That said, Kenliles has an important point that if you are going to stay in TSLA for the long haul, it is best to have a strategy that allows for a large correction at some point. As a firm believer in the "sugar happens" philosophy, I agree. Here are a couple options to consider:
* Kenliles sees the advantage of being in shares (rather than holding a leveraged position in leaps) because if there is a large correction at any time (macro or otherwise), you would then be in a position to increase your leverage (by moving from shares to leaps) when the stock price is down and thereby manage the big dip effectively.
* Trendtrader007 has more of a trader solution, which is to be heavily in a stock (with some leaps) when the stock is clearly in a growth mode and then exiting the position once the dramatic growth event has played out. He limits his exposure to "sugar happens" by minimizing or eliminating his holdings during times when the stock appreciation is likely to be below stellar. He has shown the discipline to make a hard decision and cut his losses when something is not working out (SNAP performance, for example).
* If I follow the Chickenlittle approach of intelligently converting leaps to stock in stages as the stock price rises, then I think I can do a hybrid of these two approaches. The risk here is that if I get caught up in expectations of rising stock too much when a "sugar happens" event catches me by surprise and I have not deleveraged enough, then I would lack the flexibility that Kenliles has with his stock only approach.

It all comes down to managing risks relative to growth of your investments. Definitely consider your situation and develop a risk plan that works for you. For many investors, this is to hold a core position of stock and dabble in options with discretionary funds at high potential times but not at other times. Since Tesla is likely to survive an economic downturn, the shares buy and hold technique should produce reasonable risk vs. growth potential. One way or another, however, find a strategy that can weather a downturn. What you wish to avoid is going over the falls with heavy leverage in leaps and riding it all the way down. Maybe you're going to stay more heavily leveraged in the short term, due to expectations of the next month, but what is your strategy beyond then?

 

[Papafox]

The ole 1-2-3-4 punch did the trick this morning and TSLA not only closed at a new ATH, it breached 330 and then, right before close, it topped 335. So, the big question is: where do we go from here? The two month consolidation above 300 is complete and TSLA has the ability to try higher valuations, but how high? If you believe the shorts are about to cave in and start covering big time, then 400 is not out of reach. On the other hand, the shorts are a determined lot and even with margin calls the majority are holding tight. At this time, there's no certainty of a squeeze.

Looking a bit shorter in time, I see that TSLA crossed the upper bb today. Past history suggests that TSLA typically doesn't spend more than 2 days above the upper bb before returning to below this band, and I think for this reason we're likely to see rather moderate performance for at least a few days. On the other hand, if shorts start covering in a big way (which I don't yet expect) all bets are off and TSLA could zoom.

I'll post the technical chart later today and follow up with a few comments.

Conditions:
* Dow down 50 (0.24%)
* NASDAQ down 7 (0.11%)
* TSLA 335.10, up 9.96 (3.06%)
* TSLA volume 7.8M shares
* Oil 49.66, down 0.14 (0.28%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[Papafox]

Here's today's technical chart, which fits right into the conflict I have. Someone who is well-versed in technical charts can read all kinds of good stuff into this chart for the short term. There's an inverted head and shoulders and today makes for day three of a 3 white soldiers move. All of this is bullish. Breaking above the upper bb is also considered bullish. This baby is ready to fly according to some technical traders.

Alas, I practice a home-brew, TSLA-only trading methodology based solely on my experience with Tesla. My techniques have some value, as I was able to anticipate this morning's big move and I was able to suggest that the two-month consolidation of TSLA in the above 300 range had now been completed (I use this period of time because that's what the 287 peak consolidation took to resolve and lead to higher stock prices). The problem with my techniques is that I am the only person in the world using these particular techniques. Technical trading, however, has a big following, and sometimes a suggestion on technicals becomes reality simply because so many people use technicals to trade by. It becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy. Thousands of traders over decades have interpreted human psychology to arrive at today's technical trading forumlas. I'm a rookie.

So, right now technicals would say that TSLA is ready to run higher and I am saying it has hit the upper bb and although it may climb nicely for much of tomorrow, by tomorrow afternoon or Thursday close it is likely to snuggle itself under the upper bb again. Therefore, I am at odds with the technical traders over the next few days. Remember that the upper bb will be rising in coming days, which gives the SP more headroom. What I hope will happen is one of two things. First, if shorts panic and start covering this week (not likely), then we see the SP zoom up. More likely, though, I think we have a quick consolidation and then see the stock positioned to climb higher after that consolidation. It may start tomorrow, it may start day after tomorrow, but by my methodologies it is going to happen. Take a look at the group of 4 trading days in the beginning of the chart above. That is a short-term consolidation to allow the upper bb to give some more headroom for climbing, and that's where I think we're heading in the short run. The good news comes when you look at what happens after the quick consolidation.

Let's see who wins: the time-tested craft of technical trading or Papafox's home-brew TSLA-only methodology.

 

[GoTslaGo]

View attachment 229039Alas, I practice a home-brew, TSLA-only trading methodology based solely on my experience with Tesla. My techniques have some value, as I was able to anticipate this morning's big move and I was able to suggest that the two-month consolidation of TSLA in the above 300 range had now been completed (I use this period of time because that's what the 287 peak consolidation took to resolve and lead to higher stock prices). The problem with my techniques is that I am the only person in the world using these particular techniques. Technical trading, however, has a big following, and sometimes a suggestion on technicals becomes reality simply because so many people use technicals to trade by. It becomes a self-fullfilling prophecy. Thousands of traders over decades have interpreted human psychology to arrive at today's technical trading forumlas. I'm a rookie.

Not a rookie. I'm inclined to say, a Specialist.

IMHO stocks/companies develop specific trading patterns over time... kind of like a certain fingerprint. I like how Bulkowski will project average SP gains and losses based on crunching big numbers. But what gets lost in the statistics are the unique variations that form depending on the company. Essentially when we all look only at the mean, the next question should always be what is the standard deviation? For a TA person, how long are the wicks on the candle?

I think you've hit upon a hypothesis that TA folks may not be thinking about. That there maybe unique stocks/companies that to not revert to the mean. It would be an interesting TA hypothesis to test one of these days.

 

[Papafox]

Today was day 2 of closing above the upper bollinger band and another ATH for TSLA. The macros were down slightly, which is still a good environment for TSLA. The battle rages between Papafox's "only two days allowed above the bb" theory and the exuberance being expressed by the technical traders. Looking at past history of this stock, I see rare instances of it closing for 3 days above the upper bb, but I can't see any 4s. So, I'm hedging my bet a little and saying maybe 3 days closing above the upper bb, because it has happened before. If I am wrong, I will sulk all the way to the bank.

Certainly the shorts are showing no sign of throwing in the towel. Vgrinshpun reports a drawdown of 85,000 shares at Fidelity this morning. With 9.7 million shares trading today, the shorts have very little chance of manipulating the stock. The first minute of trading today saw an astounding 265,000 shares change hands.

The Stock price is getting fairly far (nearly $4) above the upper bb. Will Papafox's historical tractor beam pull it closer to the upper bb tomorrow, or will the TA exuberance continue?

Conditions:
* Dow down 21 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ down 5 (0.08%)
* TSLA 341.01, up 5.91 (1.76%)
* TSLA volume 9.7M shares
* Oil 48.7, up 0.38 (0.79%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 85,000 shares drawdown, 0.75% interest

 

[Papafox]

Bless TSLA volatile little heart for sticking with its historic trading patterns and not making me look silly today. After two days above the upper bb, TSLA sank enough to wiggle slightly below the upper bb at close today. For this reason, you should not be concerned about today's trading, it is absolutely normal. The big question is what type of consolidation we see next, anything from a short, slightly up consolidation down to a drop is prices. From the support this stock has been showing, I'm thinking of something in between but more likely something closer to the former than the latter,

This is a short message because I am jumping on a plane. Hope to do part two at midnight tonight.

 

[Papafox]

Part 2
OK, Here's how I think the trading went today. A lot of smart traders have also figured out that TSLA seldom closes more then 2 days above the upper bollinger band. The fact that today was a good day for the broader markets took a distant back seat behind the upper bb issue.The upper bb looked like is was going to be somewhere between 340 and 341, so it looked like there were expectations in certain quarters of the trading business that TSLA would close lower than that number today. When TSLA went steaming right up to 344 and began to turn around, traders began to sell (longs and shorts I suspect). Once the stock price descended below 340, there was no guarantee that it would descend further, so these sellers may have eased off at that point and the negative momentum from new shorts jumping in and some longs taking profits pushed TSLA down further. It was the classic TSLA momentum. Alas, other longs saw a nice buying opportunity and started buying again. The equilibrium was reached right about the expected "close no higher than" amount and thus we saw the upper bb at 341.08 and the closing stock price less than a dollar below it at 340.37.

BTW, Papafox had to get off one Airbus and is waiting for another Airbus to carry him to California today. This is why I have time to type this message. Meanwhile, Iceman the dog (my road trip companion and loyal pooch) and my "50 State Tesla" Model S are on a Cargo 747 heading to the same airport. I thought I was going to beat Iceman and the Tesla to LAX, but we had to go back to the gate and change planes. I swear I saw Iceman peering from his Kennel right behind the cockpit of that 747 and grinning at me as he and the Tesla took the lead in our race to California, but it could have just been my imagination. Hopefully, we all get there tonight and are reunited in a few hours. For a video and the whole story, check out the blog address in the second line of my signature.

How much and what type of consolidation do we see? I suggest checking out the full techbical chart at the link below and seeing other instances where TSLA consolidated after two days above the upper bb. My guess is that our consolidation should be rather benign, due to the strong underlying positive sentiment right now, but a less-desirable consolidation is possible if the shorts and FUDsters turn up the volume.
Link to chart: http://lab.moesalih.com/stocks?tsla

Conditions:
* Dow up 136 (0.65%)
* NASDAQ up 48 (0.78%)
* TSLA 340.37, down 0.64 (0.19%)
* TSLA volume 7.6M shares
* Oil 48.01, down 0.35 (0.72%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Part 2
OK, Here's how I think the trading went today. A lot of smart traders have also figured out that TSLA seldom closes more then 2 days above the upper bollinger band. The fact that today was a good day for the broader markets took a distant back seat behind the upper bb issue.The upper bb looked like is was going to be somewhere between 340 and 341, so it looked like there were expectations in certain quarters of the trading business that TSLA would close lower than that number today. When TSLA went steaming right up to 344 and began to turn around, traders began to sell (longs and shorts I suspect). Once the stock price descended below 340, there was no guarantee that it would descend further, so these sellers may have eased off at that point and the negative momentum from new shorts jumping in and some longs taking profits pushed TSLA down further. It was the classic TSLA momentum. Alas, other longs saw a nice buying opportunity and started buying again. The equilibrium was reached right about the expected "close no higher than" amount and thus we saw the upper bb at 341.08 and the closing stock price less than a dollar below it at 340.37.

BTW, Papafox had to get off one Airbus and is waiting for another Airbus to carry him to California today. This is why I have time to type this message. Meanwhile, Iceman the dog (my road trip companion and loyal pooch) and my "50 State Tesla" Model S are on a Cargo 747 heading to the same airport. I thought I was going to beat Iceman and the Tesla to LAX, but we had to go back to the gate and change planes. I swear I saw Iceman peering from his Kennel right behind the cockpit of that 747 and grinning at me as he and the Tesla took the lead in our race to California, but it could have just been my imagination. Hopefully, we all get there tonight and are reunited in a few hours. For a video and the whole story, check out the blog address in the second line of my signature.

How much and what type of consolidation do we see? I suggest checking out the full techbical chart at the link below and seeing other instances where TSLA consolidated after two days above the upper bb. My guess is that our consolidation should be rather benign, due to the strong underlying positive sentiment right now, but a less-desirable consolidation is possible if the shorts and FUDsters turn up the volume.
Link to chart: http://lab.moesalih.com/stocks?tsla

Conditions:
* Dow up 136 (0.65%)
* NASDAQ up 48 (0.78%)
* TSLA 340.37, down 0.64 (0.19%)
* TSLA volume 7.6M shares
* Oil 48.01, down 0.35 (0.72%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

You had your Tesla flown to the States for a road trip? How much does that cost?

 

[Papafox]

You had your Tesla flown to the States for a road trip? How much does that cost?

$2700. It is likely a one-way trip with the S becoming my mainland car and a Model 3 becoming the Hawaii car.

 

[Papafox]

Today was day 2 of the 340ish consolidation. It was a strong broader market day, which did not help TSLA (porridge too hot). The bear attack in the morning was soundly defeated, the SP rose to a value appropriate for staying below the upper bb, and the SP descended (perhaps with the help of shorts) in the low volume afternoon hours. Again, this behavior is pretty much what you'd expect from TSLA when it is sitting just below the upper bollinger band. Overall, the stock shows stregnth because most investors aren't caught up in the upper bb knowledge for this stock and they're holding tight.

All is well with the mainland road trip! The Tesla is charging in the hotel at the moment.

Conditions:
* Dow up 62 (0.29%)
* NASDAQ up 59 (0.94%)
* TSLA 339.85, down 0.52 (0.15%)
* TSLA volume 5.9M shares?
* Oil 47.66, down 0.7 (1.45%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA

 

[kenliles]

$2700. It is likely a one-way trip with the S becoming my mainland car and a Model 3 becoming the Hawaii car.

Your missing an opportunity to offer Elon live testing

 

[Papafox]

Happy Sunday. For the week, TSLA closed at 339.85, up 14.71 from last Friday's 325.14. Although the last few days have been slightly negative consolidation days, the week was a major jump up. Looking at TSLA's performance on a weekly basis the consistence of the rise has been impressive. The big question going into next week is whether the consolidation will be brief or something longer. I'm expecting more net shorting than covering in the short run, unless TSLA gets a big upward spike going.

 

[neroden]

I look forward to your chart of today. Big upward spike already...

 

[Papafox]

Congratulations, longs. TSLA set both a new intra-day ATH of 348.18 and a new closing ATH of 347.32. Regarding the question of whether this was a quick or lengthy consolidation, the verdict is in and says "quick". Only two slightly negative days of consolidation were needed before TSLA found its mojo again (actually, found some headroom beneath the upper bb) today and rose above the upper bollinger band in late afternoon trading. Interestingly, in the final 16 minutes of trading, TSLA descended back to a tiny distance from the upper bb, which was sitting at 347.13 today. Clearly, the word is out that TSLA gets a bit dizzy above the upper bb and typically adjust to within the bb within a couple days. That said, there are no absolute rules in this business. If Elon lets a hugely positive cat out of the bag at the annual meeting (don't hold your breath), the SP would run up significantly without immediate regard for the upper bb. Similarly, if shorts started covering in great quantities, the upper bb rule would be overruled. In most other situations, however, the "no more than 2 days above the upper bb" rule tends to be followed. Today's closing was so close to the upper bb that it may not be counted, who knows.

What should we expect from tomorrow's Annual Meeting? I think we'll get a thumbs up that the various projects of TSLA (especially Model 3) are on track. When Elon is not looking for a cap raise, he's inclined to prefer seeing the stock price rise in a more conservative fashion to what we've seen since November, and for this reason I think he'll have a bias against statements that will move the stock upward in the short run. I'd love to be wrong, however.

TSLA is back in its sweet spot: playing tag with the upper bollinger band

Conditions:
* Dow down 22 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ down 10 (0.16%)
* TSLA 347.32, up 7.47 (2.2%)
* TSLA volume 6.8M shares
* Oil 478.54, up 0.14 (0.3%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA