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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
We're still having trouble remembering the most significant digit, aren't we?
My multi-day challenge has turned into an exercise in sleep deprivation. Please, if I say TSLA is heading immediately to 180 or 280, don't sell. ; )
The big news for TSLA today is the rebirth of the China factory story. One report suggests we'll hear something official on Thursday. This report is likely responsible for the late afternoon rally. The NASDAQ and tech stocks headed higher as the day went on today, but I didn't see them heading up as steeply as TSLA in the final hour or two. We're also seeing a reoccurring pattern of rising SP during pre-market trading, a mandatory morning dip, followed by an afternoon recovery. Some forum members are trading on it.
TSLA continues to trade in the 370-375 range as it await news that will provide a direction out of the consolidation holding-pattern.
Check out the technical chart to see how tight the consolidation pattern is so far.
Conditions:
* Dow down 57 (0.27%)
* NASDAQ up 46 (0.74%)
* TSLA 376.40, up 4.16 (1.12%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 42.46, down 0.07 (0.16%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: NA
As we last left off, some more substantial confirmation of TSLA's China factory was expected today for Tesla's China factory, and @vgrinshpun found evidence that something was coming. So, let's say the average TMC investor who chose to play the rumor made $6 per share/$600 per call contract today and let's say that 300 shares or 3 contracts was the average. That's $1800 per member who played the rumor and let's say that 500 of you played the rumor (I did) . That's $900,000. Not bad for one of the TMCers helping the gang make a few bucks. Unfortunately, I lack the time this week to carefully consider whether there's more to come, but I already sold my short-term play and I tip my hat to vgrinshpun for providing the funds for an EGO self-propelled electric lawnmower plus some other fun stuff.
What I find fascinating is that with the level of information provided about the proposed Tesla China factory, our SP topped out at about the same 384.xx that we saw pre-market when the first hint of the rumor appeared and then faded. I based my trading today on this number and it worked well (we had a quick peek at the fortune-teller's cards).
Notice today we again had TSLA up pre-market, a mandatory morning dip, and then a rise going into the afternoon.
Yes, the rumor has broken the stable consolidation.
Conditions:
* Dow down 13 (0.06%)
* NASDAQ up 3 (0.04%)
* TSLA 382.61, up 6.21 (1.65%)
* TSLA volume 7.5M shares
* Oil 42.76, up 0.02 (0.05%)
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Friday's high of 386.98 set a new intra-day ATH.
This week, TSLA closed at 383.45, up 12.05 from last Friday's 371.40. Looking at the weekly chart below, you can see that TSLA has climbed in 13 of the past 15 weeks. Anyone for 14 out of the past 16 this week?
Conditions:
* Dow down 3 (0.01%)
* NASDAQ up 29 (0.46%)
* TSLA 383.45, up 0.84 (0.22%)
* TSLA volume 6.4M shares
* Oil 43.53 up 0.52 (1.21%)
I look at 370-375 as TSLA's default zone as we head towards Model 3 reveal. I see the mid 380s as the position where TSLA heads when there is reasonably credible expectations that a China factory will receive some official announcement. We are drifting back towards the typical range now, but news can quickly change it.
An extraordinarily large trading volume of 135,000 shares took place at 4:00pm, the final minute of normal hours trading today.
Conditions:
* Dow up 15 (0.07%)
* NASDAQ down 18 (0.29%)
* TSLA 377.49, down 5.96 (1.55%)
* TSLA volume 6.6M shares
* Oil 43.4, up 0.02 (0.05%)
Today the broader markets were down sharply and TSLA followed their lead in typical exaggerated fashion. I have been so consumed in my present distraction that I have not been able to read the forums today and consider their content. Fortunately, I have already adjusted to my optimal long-term TSLA holdings position and feel comfortable riding out the turbulence through late 2018, if need be. The weekly chart I published a few days ago indicates the potential upside. Today's market retreat is a reminder of the short-term downside. The short term is unpredictable right now but the long term is promising as long as Tesla stays on track. Invest accordingly.
Conditions:
* Dow down 99 (0.46%)
* NASDAQ down 101 (1.61%)
* TSLA 362.37, down 15.12 (4.01%)
* TSLA volume 6.9M shares
* Oil 44.21, down 0.83 (1.91%)
Today the broader markets bounced back, and TSLA did so with them. TSLA is now back in the long-consolidation and no imminent rumors price range of 370-375.
Conditions:
* Dow up 144 (0.68%)
* NASDAQ up 88 (1.43%)
* TSLA 371.24, up 8.87 (2.45%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 44.74, up 0.5 (1.13%),
TSLA continues its manic-depressive week, following big swings in the broader markets. Today the NASDAQ was down 1.44% and TSLA did its normal exaggerated response. For reference sake, a conservative, dividend-paying tech stock (Intel) was down nearly 2% and a hot growth tech stock (Nvidia) was down 3.34%, placing TSLA's 2.83% drop somewhere in the middle.
I continue to be extremely time constrained and cannot keep up with TSLA news this week.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA has crossed the midpoint between the upper and lower bollinger bands. With Model 3 reveal only weeks away, however, I suspect that this stock still has plenty of buyers to scoop up shares when the perception is that the immediate dip is over.
Conditions:
* Dow down 168 (0.78%)
* NASDAQ down 90 (1.44%)
* TSLA 360.75, down 10.49 (2.83%)
* TSLA volume 8.2M shares
* Oil 45.2, up 0.27 (0.6%)
I think Monday will be uninformative due to the holiday and half-day trading. Wednesday we'll get a look at the market's real reaction to this weekend's news.
TSLA's ups and downs on Friday were closely related to the movement of the broader indexes, and on a day with mixed performance in the broader markets, TSLA closed up 0.86 at close.
TSLA's close of 361.61 is 21.84 less than last Friday's close of 383.45 and the stock's record for this rally decreases to closing higher only 13 of the past 16 weeks. While there has been a relative lack of substantial TSLA news recently, that situation is about to change with a Musk tweet regarding Model 3 slated for Sunday and 2nd Q delivery numbers coming early this week, too. Expect a lively week ahead.
For most of this rally that began in November, TSLA has been on auto-climb mode, with a strongly positive underlying sentiment buoying the stock as investors chanted the mantra "Model 3 is coming, TSLA is bound to move higher." Once the SP reached the 370s, though, investors started questioning how much higher is appropriate for this pre-Model 3 rally, and the stock not only consolidated, but investors began moving the SP up and down with the NASDAQ's movements. Twice rumors suggested that official word of a China factory was imminent, and twice TSLA climbed into the 380s, only to fall as the desired level of confirmation failed to come forth. So, we're now back in a trading situation where TSLA is trading on news, and of course the news of the coming days will push the SP up or down, depending upon how favorable the news is.
Conditions:
* Dow up 63 (0.29%)
* NASDAQ down 4 (0.06%)
* TSLA 361.61, up 0.86 (0.24%)
* TSLA volume 5.8M shares
* Oil 46.04, up 1.11 (2.47%)
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Yesterday (Sunday), Elon tweeted that Model 3 production was beginning with 30 cars to be delivered to customers on July 28, 100 cars to be produced in August, 1500 in Sept., and production rate reaching 20,000 Model 3s per month during December (but not really nailing down when in December that rate would be achieved). It was a positive message showing Model 3 was slightly ahead of schedule, which buoyed TSLA during pre-market and early/mid morning trading but the stock sank substantially as the day went on. Once again, TSLA's trading followed the NASDAQ's cue because the NASDAQ was sinking as the short trading day progressed. The NASDAQ lost about .5%, TSLA lost about 2.5%, and NVIDIA lost about 3.6% today.
In separate news, Telsa revealed today that deliveries were about 22,000 vehicles in Q2, very close to the numbers that @vgrinshpun had been suggesting. Tesla suggested that a lack of the new 100kwh batteries contributed to the lower numbers compared to Q1, but that the issue was resolved in June.
Overall, Tesla suggests it is on track to deliver at least as many S and Xs in the second half of the year as in the first half, which is positive, considering the distraction to S sales caused by the release of Model 3. In the short term, we should expect continued volatility, but the company remains on track to deliver an excellent performance and transition to profits sometime in 2018.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA is nearing the lower boundary of the bollinger band. Should TSLA drop below the lower band, you may see some selling by technically-oriented traders. For this reason, shorts are likely to try pushing TSLA below that level, so keep an eye on Wednesday's trading. On the other hand, with Tesla fundamentally staying on track for a robust Model 3 ramp, you will have buyers willing to pick up shares when any dip is considered completed. Thus, we should see continued volatility in the short term.
In terms of catalysts, the 2Q ER which should take place early next month could serve as a negative catalyst, due to the effect on financials of fewer deliveries in Q2 compared to Q1. On the other hand, it is possible that Tesla could offer a pleasant surprise at the July 28 delivery event for Model 3, and we should expect a positive catalyst from the September Semi-truck event. If Tesla can beat production projections for the next few months and meet its production scaling estimates for Model 3 in December, this news would also been seen as a positive catalyst. For the time being, we will likely see the broader markets affecting TSLA trading, continued short-term volatility, but with 2018 looking very promising in terms of a return to profitability and substantial scaling of Model 3 production, investors who take a longer-term time horizon will likely sit out the volatility so as to be positioned for an attractive 2018. Again, I continue to advocate a position in TSLA that you are willing to sit on for a year as Model 3 scales up to profitable output levels. This will continue to be a stock that is difficult to time in the short term.
Conditions:
* Dow up 130 (0.61%)
* NASDAQ down 30 (0.49%)
* TSLA 352.62, down 8.99 (2.49%)
* TSLA volume 6.2M shares
* Oil 46.99, up 0.95 (2.06%)
To CatB and others: I continue to be so time constrained that I cannot even keep up with the Teslamotorsclub investor threads. Therefore, this overview may be missing critical ingredients.
TSLA did indeed fall below the lower bb today, which led to selling by technically-oriented investors, as suggested might happen in my previous post. Volume was a hefty 17 million shares. This type of volatility is something many of us have grown to expect from TSLA. Calling a bottom is a tricky business, which is why many investors who have dry powder tend to buy in multiple orders rather than trying to nail the buy at the perfect time. The continued decline in after-hours trading suggests more decline might be in order for tomorrow. On the other hand, TSLA has a tendency to rally back up when a bottom has been reached, and it can do so very quickly, so if you plan to pick up some additional shares, you really do have to watch this stock carefully.
I look at the drop today this way. The rise to the 370s took place with strong underlying sentiment regarding the likelihood of TSLA rising as the Model 3 release approached. Once the market had adequately bid the price up for the prelude to Model 3, the reason for the underlying sentiment dissipated and TSLA was set to trading on news and market forces. Down days for the NASDAQ started TSLA down, and today's drop was due to technicals, as far as I know (remember I haven't read all the other posts today). I believe there's strong bullishness for the 2018 time period but question marks for the short term, which can lead to big price swings one way or the other. The Q1 ER received a quick recovery because of the strong underlying sentiment at the time. The Q2 ER will not be held in such a benign environment for longs, and I think part of today's drop is pricing in expectations for the Q2 ER being a bit rocky. Once the market gets done fretting about the short term, investors are there with an eye further into the future as Model 3 really starts to ramp up, and the stock will recover when the short-term fears turn into expectations of opportunity for long-term gains. It can happen very quickly.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA dropped well below the lower bollinger band today, which likely set off the selling.
Conditions:
* Dow down 1 (0.01%)
* NASDAQ up 41 (0.67%)
* TSLA 327.09, down 25.53 (7.24%)
* TSLA volume 17M shares
* Oil 45.34, up 0.21 (0.47%)
First the bad news: we had another painful day with TSLA, much of it tied to the down day with broader markets, but much tied simply to the downward momentum that this stock gains after a few really rocky days and that downward momentum is pushed along by short-selling, FUD attacks, margin calls on longs, a nearly-inevitable Goldman Sachs downgrade, and speculators jumping ship.
Now for the good news. Much of the big drop happened when TSLA dipped below the lower bollinger band and technical traders started heading for the hills. One technical trader was suggesting a drop as far as 297. Here's the thing, though, 307 or even 310 isn't far from 297, so there's not much downside to jumping in at 307 if the stock looks like it has bottomed out, and there are plenty of investors who bailed, planning to get back into TSLA once it has bottomed out. We could see a reversal tomorrow, since a huge Australian solar project using Tesla Energy products was announced in after hours trading. Notice the positive trend in after-hours trading.
Of course the shorts aren't likely to wave a white flag and the macros could have another bad day, but overall I think Friday is shaping up to be an interesting day.
Also, as a reality check, consider the recent news that Volvo is soon to produce no purely-ICE vehicles and France will end gasoline cars by 2040. Tesla has already changed the world. The future is apparent and we are shareholders in the lowest-cost producer of the highest quality batteries in the world which go into the most in-demand vehicles in the world. Invest accordingly.
Conditions:
* Dow down 158 (0.74%)
* NASDAQ down 61 (1.00%)
* TSLA 308.83, down 18.26 (5.58%)
* TSLA volume 19.3M shares
* Oil 44.93, down 0.59 (1.3%)
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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Immediately after the final M3 reveal could be an excellent environment that longs. If Elon is correct that will be a positive surprise to the market.
Say, if you see an Australian this weekend, buy him or her a Fosters. The good news about the South Australia battery decision, combined with a big up day for the broader markets, was apparently enough to bring TSLA's slide to a stop. We're talking under $50 million is revenue for TSLA for the Australian battery system, but the implications of such a project moving forward are immense for Tesla Energy achieving substantial value in the years ahead. I personally believe that TSLA's slide would have stopped about 297 or so, but it is nice to see it stop prior to that technical point.
For the week, TSLA closed at 313.22, down 48.39 from last week's 361.61. Ouch!
Taking a look at the daily trading chart, you can see some important points. Notice that TSLA stopped climbing every time it hit $316 or so. Why? Capping by shorts, most likely. Why this number? If you look at the technical chart below you can see that the lower bollinger band has descended steeply to about $319.69, which is too close for comfort as far as the shorts are concerned. We are quite likely to see some short covering on Monday during the amateur hour (and quite possibly later, too), and once the shorts start buying to close, the stock has a reasonable chance of making it over the lower bb, and once it is above this level the technical-traders start buying. Also notice the early morning dip, which some forum members believe was due to longs satisfying margin calls.Very impressive was the climb after close. I think some trader believes that TSLA will climb above the upper bb on Monday and then run up quite a bit higher after that. We'll see.
I'm optimistic about Monday, but I see shorts ready to sell to keep the SP under the lower bb. Working against them is the likely upward pressure during the first hour of a Monday trading day (because the stock showed strength on Friday in both regular hours and after-hours trading). Also working against the shorts is the high volume we are likely to see. It's hard to manipulate in a high-volume environment. Monday has the potential to be a big day for TSLA longs. Hope so, at least.
The biggest problem TSLA could encounter on Monday would be a down macro day. TSLA is indeed affected by macros in the current trading environment. If the macros behave, however, I think we have a good shot at seeing a nicely green trading day on Monday.
Conditions:
* Dow up 94 (0.44%)
* NASDAQ up 64 (1.04%)
* TSLA 313.22, up 4.39 (1.42%)
* TSLA volume 14.2M shares
* Oil 44.46, up 0.23 (0.52%)
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NO!!! Why do you think we export it all?
Ladies and gentlemen, today was a ferocious battle to influence whether TSLA will continue last week's downtrend or whether it is defining a bottom and ready to head upwards. A massive 13.8M shares traded hands. At some point, the longs or the shorts are going to win this battle and we're going to see movement in one direction or the other. Longs look to have the advantage right now, but the best chance for the shorts to make progress pushing TSLA down a bit would be if we see one or more significant down days for the NASDAQ. There's no clear winner yet, but I'm giving the victory today to the longs and here's why:
* TSLA closed in the green for the 2nd trading day in a row (on super-high volume, too)
* TSLA closed above the lower bollinger band, which is at 313.13 and TSLA closed at 316.05
* TSLA closed above the 100 day moving average, which stands at 307.38
Should longs win this battle this week, you will get a good indication because there will be an attempt to cap the stock by shorts which will fail and the stock price will head up a good amount. At that point, weak shorts start buying in to close their positions and the battle is won. The shorts win if they're able to push the SP down and get another downtrend going, due to the macros going south on us.
BTW, during this morning's dip, I was using dry powder to buy shares and J19 ITM leaps.
Conditions:
* Dow down 6 (0.03%)
* NASDAQ up 23 (0.38%)
* TSLA 316.05, up 2.83 (0.90%)
* TSLA volume 13.8M shares
* Oil 44.4, up 0.17 ((0.38%)
Congratulations, longs, we won the battle. The downtrend has been vanquished. There will be many more downtrends in our future (and many more uptrends too!) but this one is toast. I wish there was an obvious capping in a plateau which falls prey to another peak, but you will instead just have to look at the many small peaks which gave way to higher peaks to understand that the shorts ran out of ammo and the longs took over today. Another big component of today's rise is likely shorts who realize the downtrend is over and were buying in today to close their positions. With a little more than 2 weeks to go before the Model 3 reveal and a downtrend recently turned back into an uptrend, this would be a very bad time to be a TSLA short.
In many ways, today's robust run up should have happened yesterday, but the very substantial efforts of the shorts delayed it by a day.
Notice the negative trading pre-market today. I continue to believe that the previous day's after-market trading is a better indicator of what is to come than the present day's pre=market (there are exceptions, of course, such as effects of macros, news, etc.)
On the technical chart, you can see a very comfortable margin above the lower bb now, with TSLA longs setting their sights on the 50 day moving average as the next challenge.
Conditions:
* Dow up 1 (0.00%)
* NASDAQ up 17 (0.27%)
* TSLA 327.18, up 11.13 (3.52%)
* TSLA volume 11.6M shares
* Oil 45.73, up 0.69 (1.53%)
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