Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Bgarret]

View attachment 235202
Congratulations, longs, we won the battle. The downtrend has been vanquished. There will be many more downtrends in our future (and many more uptrends too!) but this one is toast. I wish there was an obvious capping in a plateau which falls prey to another peak, but you will instead just have to look at the many small peaks which gave way to higher peaks to understand that the shorts ran out of ammo and the longs took over today. Another big component of today's rise is likely shorts who realize the downtrend is over and were buying in today to close their positions. With a little more than 2 weeks to go before the Model 3 reveal and a downtrend recently turned back into an uptrend, this would be a very bad time to be a TSLA short.

In many ways, today's robust run up should have happened yesterday, but the very substantial efforts of the shorts delayed it by a day.

Notice the negative trading pre-market today. I continue to believe that the previous day's after-market trading is a better indicator of what is to come than the present day's pre=market (there are exceptions, of course, such as effects of macros, news, etc.)

View attachment 235203
On the technical chart, you can see a very comfortable margin above the lower bb now, with TSLA longs setting their sights on the 50 day moving average as the next challenge.

Conditions:
* Dow up 1 (0.00%)
* NASDAQ up 17 (0.27%)
* TSLA 327.18, up 11.13 (3.52%)
* TSLA volume 11.6M shares
* Oil 45.73, up 0.69 (1.53%)

Papa.
Thank you.
Your consistent, intelligent and measured discussion of the daily trading in TSLA is valuable and welcome. A more than fair amount of work goes into this and it is appreciated.

You are a gentleman and I tip my cap to you.

If I am ever out your way, would be happy to buy you a beverage, knowing you have purchased it for the both of us many times over.

Cheers.

 

[bdy0627]

I second this appreciation to Papafox. After market close, I always look forward to his analysis of the day's trading. Thank you!

 

[Papafox]

Today was noteworthy in several respects. First, we saw TSLA zoom up yesterday on a very weakly positive macro day (which is a great environment for TSLA to rise in), and today we saw a much more subdued rise for TSLA in a strongly positive macro day. With TSLA having a harder time rising in a strongly positive macro day compared to a day like yesterday, because it appeared that the shorts put more pressure on TSLA today than yesterday, and because a chunk of last week's losses have been reclaimed already, today's performance was not as robust. We also saw TSLA dip in the morning, which suggests the mandatory morning dip is alive and well, and if you do plan to buy some shares it is highly suggested that you review the past week or two of daily charts here and consider such trends in your timing.

Take a look at the plateau following the mid-day dip. You can see TSLA traded just below 330 for a prolonged period of time. Also notice the day's finish, when TSL:A's stock slid back below 330. I think you can safely say there was effort extended by the shorts to keep TSLA from closing above 330 today, with the plateau being classic capping behavior.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA is only about $10 away from the 50 DMA.

Conditions:
* Dow up 123 (0.57%)
* NASDAQ up 68 (1.10%)
* TSLA 329.52, up 2.30 (%)
* TSLA volume 10.4M shares
* Oil 45.33, down 0.16 (0.35%)

 

[Papafox]

We live in interesting times. Today, TSLA lost $6 on a day with lightly positive macros (a very good environment for TSLA to climb), and with no negative news of substance, a couple weeks before the Model 3 reveal. My guess is that the shorts saw lower volume today and since yesterday's rise was relatively light, they pushed the SP lower, sensing relative weakness, hoping to rekindle the downtrend. Working against that plan is a recent reversal above 300, which may likely be repeated if declining macros allowed the SP to go lower. Further, although we have seen what appears to be rather robust short activity recently in the form of FUD, mandatory morning dips, capping, and low-volume afternoon downward slopes, the shorts are lacking an absolutely essential ingredient that allowed them to push the SP way down with robust activity. They're missing the negative underlying sentiment that came about after the Solar City acquisition was announced and disappeared after the merger vote. Without that negative sentiment, the abilities of the shorts to induce fear is severely limited and subject to failure.

Negative macros will be the continued friend of the shorts (when these macros appear), but long-term efforts to control the stock price are just not in the cards for them. Reversals from downtrends to uptrends such as we saw this week are inevitable. Underlying sentiment is still positive. The only question is where to value the stock while Model 3 and Tesla Energy ramp up.

Conditions:
* Dow up 21 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ up 13 (0.21%)
* TSLA 323.41, down 6.11 (1.85%)
* TSLA volume 8.6M shares
* Oil 46.09, up 0.60 (1.32%)

 

[Papafox]

Normally, TSLA trades best on slightly up days for the broader markets, but today the broader markets started climbing slowly and kept climbing, which turned out to be a better macro day than many traders expected, and it was a great environment for TSLA because the macros didn't overheat early but kept the pressure on TSLA to climb as the day went on, and climb it did. Please notice:
* TSLA had a mandatory morning dip today, which is getting to be pretty dependable as shorts try to manipulate TSLA lower
* Notice how TSLA was held back time and time again from rising through whole numbers such as 325, 326, and 327 today. This looks like capping to me (another tool of the shorts)
* If you look at the week, we had steadily declining volumes after the horrendous battle on Monday when shorts threw lots of resource towards continuing the downtrend, but failed. We longs are fortunate the macros smiled upon us this critical week.

For the week, TSLA closed at 327.78, up 14.56 from last Friday's 313.22. The strong finish today at a SP that allows a further rise suggests the possibility of a good opening on Monday, provided the shorts don't expend the resources they used last Monday and the macros behave. Enjoy your weekend.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that we see TSLA consolidating in the 322-332 range the past 4 days. I'd expect TSLA to climb some as we get closer to July 28, keeping in mind that macros can negatively affect that expectation.

Conditions:
* Dow up 85 (0.39%)
* NASDAQ up 38 (0.61%)
* TSLA 327.78, up 4.37 (1.35%)
* TSLA volume 5.6M shares
* Oil 46.54, up 0.46 (1%)

 

[joefee]

Bought a new lot at 322 ...looking forward to the 28th!

 

[Papafox]

Bought a new lot at 322 ...looking forward to the 28th!

I think a buy-in at 322 will serve you well as a long-term investment, but I continue to believe that the short-term is really tough to call with this stock. The market is willing to price TSLA higher, but the shorts put in a massive effort at times this past week and the macros can always go South on us. Snug up the seatbelt and hang on for a bumpy but ultimately rewarding ride!

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA suffered from an innocent comment made by Elon Musk at a governor’s conference. If you watched the video, you would see that Elon was addressing the governors as equals, not talking up or down to them. Most likely, he was establishing rapport, which will be useful in negotiating future gigafactory incentives in the not-so-distant future. He was relaxed, frank, and informative. He made a point of not bad-talking the competition, which positively affected his credibility. At one point he mentioned that TSLA was trading higher than it deserved based upon its past and current accomplishments, but he later mentioned that stocks are valued by the future worth of companies, not the past and present, which in his mind effectively neutralized the previous comment. Alas, the FUDsters will show no mercy to such a balanced statement, and TSLA did a swan dive this morning as a result. The good news? These statements about TSLA value don’t seem to have lasting effects, and with the Model 3 reveal coming soon, we likely will see today’s concerns forgotten soon enough. Nonetheless, this stock continues to be difficult to predict in the short-term, and short-term bets are gambling, not investing. The long term? Ah, that’s where an investor can expect significantly-positive results if the company remains on track and your time horizons are long enough. Once Tesla Energy and Model 3 are ramped up, Tesla should produce profits, which will lead to a significant improvement in valuations for the stock.

Conditions:
* Dow down 8 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ up 2 (0.03%)
* TSLA 319.40, down 8.38 (2.56%)
* TSLA volume 9.9M shares
* Oil 46.06, up 0.04 (0.09%)

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA recovered all of Monday's losses plus a bit extra. Regarding Elon's statement about TSLA valuation, Musk tweeted late yesterday that even though TSLA is priced high by past and present accomplishments, it is priced low if you believe in Tesla's future. Further, the driver of the vehicle reportedly involved in an autopilot roll-over went on record today stating that the autopilot was not the cause of the roll-over accident in which nobody was seriously hurt. Bottom line: 24 hours later, the dip has been reversed and judging by a slight slope upward in SP during after-hours trading, we might just see a further climb tomorrow. Speaking of after-hours trading, three delayed transactions gave the appearance of a bumpy ride after hours, but it was just a posting issue, not a real trading issue.

Conditions:
* Dow down 55 (0.25%)
* NASDAQ up 30 (0.47%)
* TSLA 328.24, up 8.67 (2.71%)
* TSLA volume 6.4M shares
* Oil 46.25, down 0.15 (0.32%)

 

[Papafox]

Looking for a classic example of shorts manipulating TSLA? Today's the day. The day started out on a positive note with 129,000 shares trading hands in the opening minute and the price soon running up to 331. Alas, the mandatory morning dip set in within half an hour (with no news of significance). The broader markets were rising, which promoted the mandatory morning dip so that traders would look elsewhere for gains on this positive market day. The dip couldn't be held, and longs bid the price of TSLA up into the green. The time came for capping, and shorts sold enough to keep TSLA within about $1 of the red/green line most of the day until shorts pushed it down into the red, and it bounced back green. As a grand finale, the shorts took advantage of the light late-afternoon volume and torpedoed TSLA in the final half hour of the trading day. I have no doubt TSLA would have closed in the green without substantial intervention by the shorts.

The reason the shorts are exerting such energy on TSLA at the moment is that TSLA is at yet another crossroads. It ran up substantially yesterday and was ready to add to the gains today when the shorts intervened. The shorts likely lack the horsepower to put this type of effort forward most days of the week. Instead, they're hoping for a down macro day to do the heavy lifting for them. If it doesn't arrive, TSLA is ready to try running up, just as it tried today. I believe seeing all three major short strategies employed today indicates that the shorts doing the selling today are not amateurs.

Conditions:
* Dow up 60 (0.31%)
* NASDAQ up 41 (0.64%)
* TSLA 325.26, down 2.98 (0.91%)
* TSLA volume 6.4M shares
* Oil 46,99, up 0.59 (1.27%)

 

[neroden]

This is very stupid of the short-sellers unless they can figure out how to do the manipulation *without opening up larger long-term short positions*.

If they're covering at the daily bottom (so that they're flat overall), who's selling to them? That's my question.

If they're not covering at the daily bottom, they're in for a world of pain.

 

[bdy0627]

Day traders?

 

[Papafox]

This is very stupid of the short-sellers unless they can figure out how to do the manipulation *without opening up larger long-term short positions*.

If they're covering at the daily bottom (so that they're flat overall), who's selling to them? That's my question.

If they're not covering at the daily bottom, they're in for a world of pain.

Here's my take. When we were referencing a website that gave a percentage of TSLA trading involving short-selling, the numbers were surprisingly large: 40% - 60% in a typical day. I think a large part of those short-selling numbers is from algobots that go long or short, depending upon the circumstances, and so much of the short-selling in a typical day is more circumstantial opportunism than manipulation. That said, I think the mandatory morning dips, the capping behavior, and the descent into the low-volume afternoon trading are manipulative, for the most part. When the strategies work for the shorts, they make money. Consider the morning dip. The shorts start selling when they either see some weakness in the amateur hour buying or engineer some weakness in the buying through robust selling. Once the SP starts to decrease, other algobots, weak longs, and small-fry shorts join in the selling. The shorts who started the morning dip are buying back ever so slowly during the decrease, and so their finances are recharged and they can pull off multiple sell high/buy low transactions during a day.

Consider too capping. If the cap holds, then shorts have sold in at the high for that portion of the day. Quite often some traders or bots see that TSLA is now stagnating and a sale is made to take a profit. This selling propels the SP down at some point and shorts who were capping now reload by buying at the lower price. Consider, though, what happens when the cap does not hold. Shorts have sold at one price and then the stock price rises. They likely buy to close the position and lose money, or they try another cap at a higher number.

Finally, consider the descent into the low-volume late afternoon hours. If a short controls lots of TSLA shares, there's advantage to see the SP continue to descend, even if the process of creating that descent is a money-loser. Shorts hope to start a downward movement in the late afternoon low-volume hours by selling. If the SP drops, the short's other shares become more valuable. Thus, even if initiating the descent in late afternoon is not profitably by itself, if you get lots of bang for the buck. a short's total holdings benefits from the afternoon selling that started the downward run. If the run accelerates and other bots, weak longs, and small shorts join in, then the late-afternoon selling can become profitable in itself if the short can buy back a sufficient number of shares once the cliff-dive has taken place.

So, in a nutshell, these manipulations by shorts are often profitable in themselves if they succeed in ultimately depressing the stock price and offering a chance to buy back at a lower amount. Algobots, weak longs, and small-time shorts are the chumps who build upon the trends started by the manipulative shorts, and these are the entities that pay the worst price in the short run for the manipulations. The real payoff for shorts are manipulations that support a large short position in TSLA, but I suspect a lot of the manipulative shorts are smart enough to be quick-in/quick-out traders, rather then sell and hold shorts.

 

[Papafox]

A picture certainly tells a story. After noon today, the shorts apparently began selling in low volume. Check out the volume indicators below. Not long after TSLA went into the red, buyers materialized, an uptrend began, and the uptrend was more frightening to shorts and longs on the sidelines than the downtrend had been. Thus, volume picked up and TSLA closed noticeably higher for the day. Another way of saying the same thing is that fear of falling is not currently as strong as fear of missing the climb.

The rapid reversal shows the danger to the shorts of their tactic of trying to manage TSLA's growth between now and the reveal. Shorts lack the negative underlying sentiment which allowed their previous shorting activities to be so successful last year, and as soon as the buying resumes, the work of the shorts can be undone. Nonetheless, the shorts are motivated and weak Q2 and Q3 ERs will give them some ammunition.

Looking at the technical chart you can see that the consolidation that started around 315 is now more than 10 days old and has been trending upward


Conditions:
* Dow down 29 (0.13%)
* NASDAQ up 5 (0.08%)
* TSLA 329,92, up 4.66 (1.43%)
* TSLA volume 5.1M shares
* Oil 46.99, up 0.59 (1.27%)

 

[neroden]

Algobots, weak longs, and small-time shorts are the chumps who build upon the trends started by the manipulative shorts, and these are the entities that pay the worst price in the short run for the manipulations.

So basically they're taking the money from momentum-strategy day traders? (Both computer and human?) When they buy at the daily bottom, that's who's selling to them (sell low!), and when they sell at the daily top, that's who's buying from them (buy high!)

You'd think the momentum-strategy day traders would change their programs after a while, but never underestimate the stupidity of humans...

 

[Papafox]

So basically they're taking the money from momentum-strategy day traders? (Both computer and human?) When they buy at the daily bottom, that's who's selling to them (sell low!), and when they sell at the daily top, that's who's buying from them (buy high!)

You'd think the momentum-strategy day traders would change their programs after a while, but never underestimate the stupidity of humans...

You bring up an excellent point about changing strategies. The tactics used to depress the SP really only work well in a downtrend. If TSLA is not in a downtrend, the tactics will be neutralized by traders. Here's an example: mandatory morning dip. These dips have been getting more benign because traders are waiting for a dip about half an hour after open and buying when the dip shows signs of bottoming out. Thus, any weakness in the dip leads to buying, which effectively neutralizes the regular use of a morning dip after a while. If the stock is not in a downtrend, the techniques used by shorts so effectively up until November will be neutralized by parties who understand how to make money from these tactics.

Here's an interesting observation for Friday: TSLA is doing pretty well in a down macro market today. Why? Longs clearly want to bid the stock price up but shorts want to hold it under 329. If we see a dip on close like we saw two days ago, I am buying. I may pick up 100 shares now so that I can play the Monday morning amateur hour bump. I'm a long-term investor, not a trader, but even I am getting tempted to jump into the game because the tactics of the shorts are starting to yield lower results than previously.

 

[Papafox]

So basically they're taking the money from momentum-strategy day traders? (Both computer and human?) When they buy at the daily bottom, that's who's selling to them (sell low!), and when they sell at the daily top, that's who's buying from them (buy high!)

You'd think the momentum-strategy day traders would change their programs after a while, but never underestimate the stupidity of humans...

To address your first question, yes, I think the primary victims of the various techniques used by shorts to depress TSLA's stock price are traders who base their decisions upon momentum. In a sense, the shorts are offering false cues to the market, and traders continue the trends started through the manipulations, believing they are either getting on board early on a trend (short sellers) or jumping ship early enough (longs) to avoid a greater loss in value to their investment.

 

[Papafox]

Today was another day where I believe that shorts were doing their best to depress the TSLA stock price. In particular, they wished TSLA to close in the red and preferably below 329 (certainly not above 330). Yesterday's close of 329.92 was just too close for comfort for the shorts. Looking at the daily chart above, you can see the mandatory morning dip was right on schedule. Twice the stock price was bid into the green (and above 330) and twice it fell back into the red zone. They can't afford to see a significant run up in the SP, which leads to shorts buying in to close positions prior to July 28. Thus the exceptional effort this past week.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA has now been alternating red-green-red-green for the past 8 trading sessions in a row. Monday would be a green day if the pattern continues. I suspect the shorts are working to avoid two things: TSLA closing above 330, which is a psychological point and avoiding TSLA closing in the green two days in a row. I believe the goal of shorts is to manage the stock price leading up to the July 28 event so as to minimize the damage to their current short positions. They are banking on either negative macros or weak Q2 and Q3 ERs to pull the stock down further and allow a profitable exit prior to Model 3's significant ramp up.

Looking at the technical chart above, notice how TSLA has been crowding 330 over the past week but only once in the past ten sessions has it been able to close above 330. The trading range has become narrower and narrower as we approach 330 because the shorts keep artificially holding the SP down. I believe that if macros allow, we will see a time on Monday when TSLA is trading above 330, and I have for this reason purchased some additional shares near closing time for the purpose of a short-term play. My thesis is that the tactics used by TSLA shorts are less effective when TSLA is holding its price or climbing than when it is descending and that the shorts are not going to be able to hold TSLA below 330 much longer if macros behave. Once TSLA breaches 330, a run to 340 or higher is entirely possible because some shorts will get nervous (both from the rising SP and from the approaching M3 Reveal event) and will jump ship, which will contribute to the upward movement. So, in a nutshell, I believe TSLA is going to break through the 330 barrier in the coming week.

For the week, TSLA closed at 328.40, up 0.52 from last week's 327.78. The narrow difference between the two weeks is no coincidence, btw.

 

[geneclean55]

Tech sector closed out on pretty much the daily highs. Hopefully bodes well for market sector on Monday.

 

[EinSV]

View attachment 236909
Today was another day where I believe that shorts were doing their best to depress the TSLA stock price. In particular, they wished TSLA to close in the red and preferably below 329 (certainly not above 330). Yesterday's close of 329.92 was just too close for comfort for the shorts. Looking at the daily chart above, you can see the mandatory morning dip was right on schedule. Twice the stock price was bid into the green (and above 330) and twice it fell back into the red zone. They can't afford to see a significant run up in the SP, which leads to shorts buying in to close positions prior to July 28. Thus the exceptional effort this past week.

View attachment 236910
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA has now been alternating red-green-red-green for the past 8 trading sessions in a row. Monday would be a green day if the pattern continues. I suspect the shorts are working to avoid two things: TSLA closing above 330, which is a psychological point and avoiding TSLA closing in the green two days in a row. I believe the goal of shorts is to manage the stock price leading up to the July 28 event so as to minimize the damage to their current short positions. They are banking on either negative macros or weak Q2 and Q3 ERs to pull the stock down further and allow a profitable exit prior to Model 3's significant ramp up.

Looking at the technical chart above, notice how TSLA has been crowding 330 over the past week but only once in the past ten sessions has it been able to close above 330. The trading range has become narrower and narrower as we approach 330 because the shorts keep artificially holding the SP down. I believe that if macros allow, we will see a time on Monday when TSLA is trading above 330, and I have for this reason purchased some additional shares near closing time for the purpose of a short-term play. My thesis is that the tactics used by TSLA shorts are less effective when TSLA is holding its price or climbing than when it is descending and that the shorts are not going to be able to hold TSLA below 330 much longer if macros behave. Once TSLA breaches 330, a run to 340 or higher is entirely possible because some shorts will get nervous (both from the rising SP and from the approaching M3 Reveal event) and will jump ship, which will contribute to the upward movement. So, in a nutshell, I believe TSLA is going to break through the 330 barrier in the coming week.

For the week, TSLA closed at 328.40, up 0.52 from last week's 327.78. The narrow difference between the two weeks is no coincidence, btw.

Heckuva call, sir! Up 4.3% on no news and meh macros.