Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[GoTslaGo]

So the lower and upper bands is driven by more than just the 20 days in the chart. There's actually some influence going 40 days back.

The formula that Bollinger uses is the standard deviation (SD) formula:

SD = SqRoot [Sum(x(i) - avg)2 / N]

X(i) = data point (i)
Avg = the average of the data points
N = the number of data points --- this is determined by what you set==typically your 20 period moving average.

The x 2 part of the formula refers to the fact that Bollinger uses 2 standard deviations to capture the volatility of the SP movement. But the base data (N) remains the same, so only 20 periods are used.

The formula would be better written in that site as:

Upper Band = 20-day SMA + [(20 day standard deviation of price) x 2]
Lower Band = 20-day SMA + [(20 day standard deviation of price) x 2]

IIRC, statistically one uses the 2nd standard deviation because it usually encompasses the 95% of the data set on the bell curve. Leaving off 2.5% of the extreme data points.

 

[D-egg-O]

The formula that Bollinger uses is the standard deviation (SD) formula:

SD = SqRoot [Sum(x(i) - avg)2 / N]

X(i) = data point (i)
Avg = the average of the data points
N = the number of data points --- this is determined by what you set==typically your 20 period moving average.

The x 2 part of the formula refers to the fact that Bollinger uses 2 standard deviations to capture the volatility of the SP movement. But the base data (N) remains the same, so only 20 periods are used.

The formula would be better written in that site as:

Upper Band = 20-day SMA + [(20 day standard deviation of price) x 2]
Lower Band = 20-day SMA + [(20 day standard deviation of price) x 2]

IIRC, statistically one uses the 2nd standard deviation because it usually encompasses the 95% of the data set on the bell curve. Leaving off 2.5% of the extreme data points.

Correct. If today is day 20, the 20-day SMA and standard deviation calculations only go 20 days back. For day 1 (20 days in the past), it uses data going 40 days back from today. Since we primarily care about how the bands might change tomorrow, we do not need to worry about data 40 days back. Sorry for any confusion. I was referencing the specific data set in @Papafox 's screen shot. Bottom line, if we want the upper BB to move up, we need higher variability in the SP tomorrow and beyond (hopefully in the upwards direction).

2 sigma is 95.45% of a bell curve.

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA confirmed Monday's upward breakout from the narrowing triangle consolidation. Although specifics are still lacking on the Model 3's ramp up rate, positive comments and activities with Tesla semi-truck, Tesla energy, and the worldwide move toward EVs has been a catalyst this week. Good news about Q3 deliveries and Model 3 production ramp will be enough to send this stock to a new ATH.

Looking at today's trading, we started with the mandatory morning dip, followed by a run to more than 376 before the stock settled and ran rather level for about an hour in the vicinity of 375. I suspect that level trading was capping by shorts, but it couldn't hold and TSLA climbed throughout the afternoon to close up 11.51 at 377.74.

Kudos to @TrendTrader007 and @vgrinshpun for both believing that an upward breakout was imminent this week.

Even though the NASDAQ was down half a percent, TSLA continued its climb nonetheless, which is not uncommon when this stock is on a roll. In after-hours trading, TSLA descended more than $3 at the time of this post on no news of significance. We'll get a chance tomorrow to see if this after-hour adjustment is manipulation or something of substance.

Looking at the technical chart, TSLA closed nearly $7 above the upper bb. This is quite a large amount above the upper band, but notice the the band is climbing and it is not uncommon to see the stock price remain above the upper bb for up to two sessions before the price and the upper bb cross again. Let's hope the majority of the adjustment is in the upper bb rising, rather than the SP declining. Thank you GoTslaGo and D-Egg-O for sharing info on how the bollinger bands are drawn. Yep, we are indeed seeing a flairing of the upper and lower bands away from the rising mid band as a result of the large price moves.

Conditions:
* Dow up 45 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ down 31 (0.48%)
* TSLA 377.74, up 11.51 (3.14%)
* TSLA volume 7.2M shares
* Oil 49.88, up 0.58 (1.18%)

 

[D-egg-O]

My feeling to getting an honorable mention in a Papa post...

Given the similarities of stock technical analysis to statistical tools, I can't help but think of the book I had in grad school, "Understanding Variation." It's a great book. Straight to the point. Doesn't over complicate things.

 

[Papafox]

TSLA closed at 379.81 today, up 36.41 from last Friday's 343.40. Not a bad week at all. To get the ball rolling on Monday, the broader markets ran up on the realization that Hurricane Irma was creating far less havok (with the exception of the Keys) than looked likely on Friday, and Monday was a relief rally. The fat man with the bad haircut in North Korea felt left out of all the action and fired a few missiles, but the financial community is largely discounting these provocations. No earth-shattering news came out of Tesla this week. Rather, the narrowing triangle consolidation had reached a point of having to choose up or down, and with tons of positive press about the world's move to EVs as the future for the automobile, that was enough to get this stock galloping upwards.

The really exciting thing about this week is that there's room for much more ahead. Shareholders have already become comfortable with TSLA trading in the mid-300s now, through the prolonged consolidation. When Tesla starts reporting significant Tesla Energy revenues, when the Model 3 ramp up is shown to be on schedule with production numbers, and when analysts start raising the value of TSLA based upon future semi-truck revenues, then there's room for a rally to take TSLA well above its previous ATH. At that point, you may see a pullback of the short numbers and the retreat of some shorts would add fuel to the rally.

Taking a look at the technical chart, you can see that even though TSLA climbed more than 2 points today, the upper bollinger band is rising faster than the stock price and at close the two were in comfortable proximity to each other, leaving open the possibility of a positive day on Monday that still leaves the stock price on the bottom side of the upper bb. If the upper bb continues to climb at a reasonable clip, it gives technically-oriented traders the piece of mind that they are not necessarily overpaying for the stock. If you go back and look at most of the climbing during the past year, you will see the stock price and the upper bb marching uphill in unison. That's the setup we're seeing for the beginning of next week. Enjoy your weekend!

Conditions:
* Dow up 64 (0.29%)
* NASDAQ up 19 (0.30%)
* TSLA 379.81, up 2.17 (0.57%)
* TSLA volume 5.4M shares
* Oil 49.89 bi change (0,0%)

 

[Papafox]

Congratulations longs, TSLA hit a new ATH today, both in terms of intra-day high and closing price (see Curt Renz's post here). Evidence of a successful Model 3 ramp continues to drift in slowly... the most recent instance being a positive note from Baird analyst Ben Kallo after taking a factory tour.

What cause TSLA's 2:30pm dip? All you need to look at is the NASDAQ dip in the image below to understand that even on a really positive day such as today TSLA can dip with the NASDAQ. Perhaps TSLA was susceptible to this type of dip because it was getting too far above the upper bollinger band. The good news is that once the NASDAQ dip ended, so did TSLA's dip.

Taking a look at the technical chart, you can see TSLA marching up with the rising upper bb in much the same fashion it has in previous runs, but it is now in day 3 of running slightly above the upper bb, which is not typical and signals strong buying pressure.

Since the mid bollinger band is determined by the previous 20 trading days, I show 20 days in the chart above. You can see that in the next two trading days we will eliminate two of the lower trading days in the 20 day period which will help the middle bollinger band to start rising (and therefore having an upward effect on the upper and lower bb's as well). Keep in mind that volatility has allowed the upper and lower bb's to flair away from the mid bb, which has allowed the nice slope of the upper bb to develop. Since the stock price is remaining so close to the upper bb, the climb is sustainable for now from the standpoint of the upper bb influence.

Conditions:
* Dow up 63 (0.28%)
* NASDAQ up 6 (0.10%)
* TSLA 385, up 5.19 (1.37%)
* TSLA volume 7.2M shares
* Oil 49.91, up 0.02 (0.04%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was one of those "sugar" happens days when an analyst from Jeffries, an organization with lots or reasons to want Tesla to fail, put out a sell recommendation and a low price target. The note was created without any substantial evidence to back it up. Thanks to @Joker for bringing the particulars to us in this post. The effect of the news was to not only pause TSLA's upward momentum but also to artificially manufacture a double-top so that technical traders might misinterpret a warning. Some significant news about China looking at allowing foreign car manufacturers to make EVs in China without a Chinese partner could well have move TSLA higher today, but we got torpedoed. No worries, the market will figure things out in good time.

Whenever you have a setback at a new ATH like this, shorts tend to jump on board, thinking that they are going to ride this thing down, and we take a far greater hit than a normal stock would. Notice the dip at 3:30pm when volume had lightened. This looks like an attempted descent into low-volume closing by the shorts, but it was defeated.

In the technical chart, you can see that we now have upper bb headroom above the stock price.

Conditions:
* Dow up 39 (0.18%)
* NASDAQ up 7 (0.10%)
* TSLA 375.10, down 9.90 (2.57%)
* TSLA volume 6.9M shares
* Oil 49.87, up 0.39 (0.79%)

 

[Navin]

RSI was oversold so a short term pause/pullback is super healthy. Also - tesla did some great technical damage by ACTUALLY taking out the ATH. Needs to take it out and then start basing there for sometime to feel comfortable and then should see a nice pop. Hope market and upcoming delivery numbers are good enough to give this runway

 

[techmaven]

RSI was oversold so a short term pause/pullback is super healthy. Also - tesla did some great technical damage by ACTUALLY taking out the ATH. Needs to take it out and then start basing there for sometime to feel comfortable and then should see a nice pop. Hope market and upcoming delivery numbers are good enough to give this runway

Basing above, at, or below ATH?

 

[Papafox]

Today was day 2 following the questionable Jefferies note that took the wind out of TSLA's sails the day after setting a new ATH. There's not much incentive for seasoned TSLA investors to sell, since the note was of very questionable value and the Model 3 ramp up to high-speed production is expected to see TSLA rise in the not-so-distant future. Still, I was surprised to see such light short mischief today, as I expected more from the shorts. Well, after the Fed announcement, the games begun. Notice the DOW (top), NASDAQ (middle) and TSLA (bottom) charts all showed a dip around 2:30pm. There was recovery of the three up until about 3:00pm, a tiny dip, and then both the DOW and the NASDAQ started heading higher at a brisk pace. Why not TSLA? I strongly suspect that shorts were capping TSLA during the final 45 minutes of trading today to keep it from rising and to even knock it down a bit. Any time I see a volatile tech stock trading sideways for prolonged periods of time, I am suspicious. Notice that the DOW hit its daily high during this closing rally, and the NASDAQ recovered most of its losses in this late rally. Unfortunately for the shorts, TSLA is going to run up regardless of these minor manipulations.

DOW

NASDAQ

TSLA

Conditions:
* Dow up 42 (0.19%)
* NASDAQ down 5 (0.08%)
* TSLA 373.91, down 1.19 (0.32%)
* TSLA volume 6.9M shares
* Oil 50.41, up 0.93 (1.88%)

 

[Papafox]

Today's new vocabulary word:

Sticky Dip- A stock has experienced a sticky dip when the broader market dips and then recovers but the subject stock remains at the bottom of the dip valuation or drifts lower, due to short-selling. The advantages of a sticky dip over other techniques used by shorts is that the sticky dip has previously never been identified in the wild and the manipulation can fool investors into believing that the initial dip was in fact the reason for the day's poor performance of the stock. The phrase was coined by an eccentric Teslaholic named Papafox to account for manipulations observed with TSLA common stock on September 20, 2017 and published on some obscure thread of the TeslaMotorsClub forums.

One interesting note about sticky dips is that this manipulation is only profitable if one of two conditions exists: the stock price continues to retreat or the drop in the SP is used to protect a substantial short position already established. Creating a sticky dip is basically using capping to keep the stock price from rising above the dip level. Normally, capping is done at or near the daily high so that shares can be purchased to close the position at a lower value later in the day (thus the profit). If the capping of a sticky dip causes the SP to decrease further, however, the short position that initiated the sticky dip can slowly be liquidated at a profit (sell high, buy low, repeat).

So, what happened today? The NASDAQ dipped at 10:30am and TSLA proved more resilient to the dip than most other tech stocks. Forum member @zdriver noticed selling in large batches from dark pools at critical times during the day that were amplified by bots and resulted in falling value of the stock. Bottom line: the shorts are back to their mischief. Their aim is likely to manufacture a false double top, followed by a decline for a few days of the TSLA stock price, in the hope that technically-oriented traders will react defensively. The obvious problem with this tactic is that at some point the manipulations fail. Such manipulations have only been effective in the past at pushing the SP down significantly when there is underlying dread in the investor community, and I don't see that dread at this time. All eyes are on the Model 3 ramp, and this is the real story. I've been watching the Model 3 pictures and delivery thread and we haven't seen much movement recently. Once the Model 3 numbers start running up quickly, these manipulations will be forgotten, but there is likely value in watching the Model 3 delivery numbers to time any additional purchases in the future. Additionally, TSLA has traded fairly well in the mornings when volume is reasonably high, but the shorts do their mischief once volume begins to dip. Bring the volume back up and the mischief becomes much more difficult.

Today's decline in value looked more like a manufactured slow descent into the close technique (rather than sticky dip) managed by some professional shorts who know what they are doing. They knew when to sell large blocks and trigger the bots to sell and perhaps persuade newbie TSLA investors to run for the hills. Once Model 3's ramp gets cranking again, these shorts are toast because without an underlying dread felt by investors, longs will not be selling and other longs are standing by on the sidelines to begin buying when the all clear (Model 3 ramp is looking good) signal is given again.

Conditions:
* Dow down 53 (0.24%)
* NASDAQ down 33 (0.52%)
* TSLA 366.48, down 7.43 (1.99%)
* TSLA volume 4.6M shares
* Oil 50.7, up 0.15 (0.30%)

 

[Papafox]

This week, TSLA closed at 351.09, down 28.72 from last Friday's closing price of $379.81. Here's a quick review of the week:

* Monday- TSLA hits new intraday ATH of 386.99 and new closing ATH of 383.45.

* Tuesday- TSLA loses 9.90 as an analyst at Jefferies gives a "sell" recommendation and a price target of 280. Forum members list numerous shortcomings in the figures used for the note, including gigafactory cell capacity that is off by a factor of 3. One member lists the oil interests Jefferies is involved in as well as the auto dealership interests. Bottom line: several members believe the Jefferies note was timed to create a false "double top" to worry technically-oriented investors

* Wednesday- The Jefferies vulture circles back again mid-day, with a revised price target of 240, allegedly due to an error in counting available shares of TSLA. TSLA was up at the time but sank a small bit. The broader markets dip at 2:30pm but recover strongly. Interestingly, TSLA did a dip, too, but does not recover. Significant selling by shorts to cap the recovery is suspected and a new term, "sticky dip" is invented. TSLA loses a little over $1, but it would have actually climbed if it had followed the broader markets up after the dip.

* Thursday- TSLA loses 7.43 (1.99%) on a day when the NASDAQ is down about half a percentage point. Forum member @zdriver notes large blocks of TSLA sold at times when TSLA appears ready to trigger a sell response from bots. I regard this day as both a response to a negative macro day and LOTS of pushing by shorts to keep the rock rolling downhill.

* Friday- TSLA briefly trades higher, but word of a $29M settlement by TSLA of a government claim against SCTY about inflated valuations for systems which generated government payments to SCTY sinks TSLA. Ironically, TSLA chose to settle upon word from the ITC that low-cost solar panels from China were hurting U.S. manufacturers, paving the way for possible tariffs on these imported panels. While the imposition of tariffs on on certain imported panels could help Tesla's solar business in the future, the immediate effect of the $29M settlement payment was a more than $2B loss in market cap, which is absolutely nuts. TSLA ends the day 15.39 lower.

Bottom line: A significantly-flawed note and further price target reduction from a Jefferies analyst started TSLA running downhill this week, and it was assisted by significant short-selling, both general selling and targeted manipulations. Overall, TSLA is still poised for large gains in the coming year because nothing of truly negative consequences happened to Tesla this week.

When to buy the dip:
Forum members are floating several theories on when to buy additional TSLA to take advantage of coming appreciation:

* Watch to see if TSLA can hold 350- Several forum members believe that if TSLA can hold 350, it will have bottomed out from last week's losses and that will be the cue that it's time to start buying.

* Watch to see when Model 3 deliveries really pick up- In theory, Tesla should be producing Model 3s at a rate of about 1500 per month sometime in September if the ramp up is a smooth, exponential curve. Of course nothing in auto manufacturing is ever so smooth. A perceived momentary lull in the growth rate could bring a temporary dip.

* Don't catch falling knives- Finally, there's the age-old technique of waiting for the turn-around and then buying at a good (but not rock-bottom) price. The liability in this method is that when TSLA starts running uphill, it can do so very rapidly. Further, a Monday morning amateur hour rally could be the beginning of a significant rally, or it could just be Monday morning exuberance. It is really hard to tell the difference initially. One technique is to watch for capping attempts by the shorts. If the capping attempts are failing then the rally might well have enough push to keep going.

Conditions:
* Dow down 10 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ up 4 (0.07%)
* TSLA down 351.09, down 15.39 (4.20%)
* TSLA volume 8.2M shares
* Oil 50.66, up 0.11 (0.22%)

 

[geneclean55]

Also some egregious mis-reporting by CNBC over the past week.

 

[AlMc]

I believe we should be looking for an early hard push down tomorrow (Monday) to see if additional either bot or longs starts tripping stop loss orders. Hopefully some institutions/technical traders will start to pile in to reverse this trend.

My suspicion is premarket may be green but we go red early in the trading session (seems normal most days now) with the battle for control of the SP being just before and after noon EST.

Long positions and IMO, J19 leap holders should be fine.

Personally, I will continue to add at the J19 $300 level on further SP drops. (wish this was happening in November so I could get J20s)

 

[Papafox]

I believe we should be looking for an early hard push down tomorrow (Monday) to see if additional either bot or longs starts tripping stop loss orders. Hopefully some institutions/technical traders will start to pile in to reverse this trend.

My suspicion is premarket may be green but we go red early in the trading session (seems normal most days now) with the battle for control of the SP being just before and after noon EST.

Long positions and IMO, J19 leap holders should be fine.

Personally, I will continue to add at the J19 $300 level on further SP drops. (wish this was happening in November so I could get J20s)

Yes, this is entirely possible. What you don't want to see is a Monday morning amateur hour that bids the stock price up, only to see a bear attack an hour or two later that sinks it. Such trading would likely leave TSLA lower for the day. OTOH, if the bear attack comes early, bottoms out, and then the buying accelerates, this could be a good day for longs. Several individuals have posted that the 100 day moving average (currently at about 344) has previously offered solid support for end of day price point. Thus, a bear attack on opening which drives the stock down to around the 100 dma and then we see a reversal looks like a good buying opportunity, whereas a climb right out of the market open remains a wild card: you simply don't know if there are plans to cap the climb and then institute a delayed bear attack or if the upward momentum will result in a large move into the green. Again, I would watch for capping by shorts and whether it succeeds or not as a clue to how the day will go.

 

[AlMc]

Yes, this is entirely possible. What you don't want to see is a Monday morning amateur hour that bids the stock price up, only to see a bear attack an hour or two later that sinks it. Such trading would likely leave TSLA lower for the day. OTOH, if the bear attack comes early, bottoms out, and then the buying accelerates, this could be a good day for longs. Several individuals have posted that the 100 day moving average (currently at about 344) has previously offered solid support for end of day price point. Thus, a bear attack on opening which drives the stock down to around the 100 dma and then we see a reversal looks like a good buying opportunity, whereas a climb right out of the market open remains a wild card: you simply don't know if there are plans to cap the climb and then institute a delayed bear attack or if the upward momentum will result in a large move into the green. Again, I would watch for capping by shorts and whether it succeeds or not as a clue to how the day will go.

This is where @zdriver and his 'dark pools' would (will?) come in handy.

 

[bdy0627]

I looked back at the previous 3 candle dips since May to get an idea of how the stock traded.
In the early May dip, the last red candle was on May 4, a Wednesday. It opened that day
gapping down 4 points from the day before and was driven down hard in the first 2 hours. The 11 o clock candle was positive and it moved steadily up from there until the last hour, which was a small red candle. The hourly low for RSI that last red day was about 16. The next day, the stock reversed big time. It opened with a strong green candle and rose steadily throughout the day. The stock was well above the 100 DMA at that time so it was never in play.

In the huge early July drop, the last red candle was on July 6, a Thursday. It opened with a gap down and proceeded to drop throughout the day. It ended with a small green candle. The hourly low for RSI that last red day was about 17. July 7, a Friday, was a choppy day that ended flat. Monday July 10 was a decisive reversal day that started off ugly. The Bears hit hard at opening with a big red candle, dropping the stock over 9 points in the first hour to $303. At that point, it was below the 100 DMA, which was around $307. Bulls rallied big time in the next hour, bringing the stock back all the way to about where it opened, back well above the 100 DMA. Over the lunch hour and early afternoon, the bears tried again without much success. The downtrend was broken.

Next up is the mid August dip where there were again 3 red candles in a row. August 21st was the last daily red candle, which was a Monday. The bears attacked hard right at the open, creating a large red candle with a drop of 8 points. There were 4 smaller red candles to follow, with the stock hitting the low just after lunch. Hourly RSI dropped to about 20 for the low point of that dip. The stock then steadily rose through the afternoon but remained down about 8 points for the day. The 100 DMA, around $332, was very briefly touched only once at the low of the day around lunch, with the stock rallying up from there. The next day was a choppy flat day with a green candle to open. The big daily green candle didn't happen until the following day.

That brings us to today. The last red candle day was Friday. It started off with a small hourly green candle and then the bears hit hard. The second hour was a massive red candle, dropping the stock over 10 points. The stock dropped steadily throughout the day, ending with a sizeable red candle. Hourly RSI ended at 21.3. One interesting thing about the trading on Thurs and Fri is that there really wasn't a battle at all. Bulls didn't seem to show up. Why is that? The selling pressure was virtually unopposed. There were only a few small hourly green candles on those days with bears having their way with the stock.

So what does Monday bring? Perhaps a brutal bear attack at the open, similar to July 10. But, as you guys pointed out, it's kind of like going for it on 4th down. If bulls respond forcefully, it would likely set the bottom and begin a reversal. Do the bears dare let the market play it out for the first hour or two and then hit hard? That could be very interesting but problematic if strong bullish trading takes over. I would guess they would probably be better off striking hard again at the open, daring bulls to stop them as they did back on July 10. Many traders are skittish, indicating they will sit this out until the dust settles. Both Option Sniper and Justin Pulitzer are taking that stance. That sentiment suggests to me a further opportunity for the bears. Of course, if shorts have spent their ammo and not covered, which seems likely since there hasn't been any indication of buying pressure yet, then a strong rally to begin the day may have shorts covering, adding fuel to a bullish fire. That's perhaps the biggest argument for the bears to hit hard at the opening. They don't want other shorts to start covering on the suggestion of a bounce, since once that starts happening it's much harder to regain control of the action.

 

[bdy0627]

I believe we have our answer: the bears waited today and did not hit hard right at the opening. They allowed a small rally to develop and then hit.

 

[MitchJi]

Cross posted in the trading thread:

Today's SCF phone call:
SCF-2017-09-25_Mon.wav

 

[Papafox]

The day began with neither bulls nor bears trading many shares for the first couple of minutes on a Monday morning. It was eerie. The opening minute saw only 100 shares traded. Then bulls bid the price up a few dollars, shorts responded with selling and pushed the SP slightly into the red with good volume, the cycle repeated, and then the bulls bid TSLA above 357 in lively trading. Unfortunately, the shorts caught a lucky break with the NASDAQ making a dip beginning about 10:15 am, and TSLA followed it down. When the NASDAQ started recovering, shorts imposed the Sticky Dip strategy of pushed the stock even lower after the NASDAQ dip and with the morning rally squashed, the day belonged to the shorts. Notice the many deep dips, followed by immediate near-recoveries, which strongly suggests short-selling in blocks to keep nudging the stock price lower. The likely goal of the shorts? TSLA investors have found the 100 day moving average to be a strong support level over the previous six months (see chart below). With the 100DMA at 344.99 it took a lot of pushing to get the stock down that low. TSLA was at 343 and some change in a dip 8 minutes before closing and closed just a smidgen below the 100 dma at 344.78. Look at the 345 line and you can see that TSLA kept recovering from transgressions below that line. In after-market trading, TSLA is once again above the 100 DMA.

Was the market fooled that the 100 DMA had fallen? I think not because the volume during the final minute of trading was an enormous 242,000 shares, one of the highest closing volumes I have seen. Similarly, TSLA has recovered by about 80 cents as I write this, which again suggests that traders think tomorrow will be a better day. Will it? TSLA's trajectory tomorrow depends upon news, FUD, MACROs, and how much commitment shorts are willing to make to see the SP go lower. Today is also a good reason why technicals matter, if for no other reason than a great many large traders, both longs and shorts, believe in them.

Backing up a bit, TSLA was in a position to break out of a narrowing consolidation triangle around 350 when it broke upwards about two weeks ago and momentum carried it to a new ATH (by a small margin). Most of us expected the run upwards to a new ATH to be based upon confirmation that Model 3 is ramping up at a good rate, but the market jumped the gun and ran up from the consolidation triangle in anticipation of good news. The confirmation of successful ramping up has not been evident yet, though, and so this rally (which was based upon beating others to buying the stock before the good news actually came out) was an easy target for a sophisticated bear attack. Member @techmaven cautioned us about the lack of confirmation of Model 3 production ramping up, but the buying frenzy was already too tempting for many of us. The combination of the Jefferies note, strategic short selling, and down macros led to a drop, and TSLA investors are careful about catching falling knives, so buyers have largely been standing on the sidelines, waiting for the stock price to bottom out. Now the 100 day moving average offers a historically significant support level, and of course the shorts are aiming at taking TSLA below that level for that very reason. Will they succeed? The 100 DMA's history, the volume of buying at close and the upward trend of the SP in after-market trading suggests no, but the ferocity of the shorts' selling must be factored in too.

I agree with @bdy0627 that shorts for the most part held their fire until a small rally had transpired before using most of their ammunition. They've recently learned the power of the Sticky Dip, where the NASDSAQ's dip is used to pull the stock price down and then the capping and block selling by the shorts is used to either hold it, or (more often these days) depress it further. Most TSLA traders are aware of the mandatory morning dip, capping, and slow descent into close now, but now we need to identify the Sticky Dip when it is used, so that we don't confuse the tactics of the shorts with the reasonable workings of the market. Also, I think shorts are cautious about using the mandatory morning dip right now because a dip on opening that is defeated quickly can be the catalyst to a significant run up of the stock. They're being careful to not be caught failing right now, which is part of the reason for using this new tactic, the Sticky Dip.

TSLA still has an amazing 2018 ahead of it, but first we need to stabilize the price. Then, when true evidence of a successful Model 3 ramp up does become known, it's off to the races again and a new ATH is going to occur. That new ATH is much more likely to hold and be built upon, however, because it will be based upon successful execution by Tesla and not upon anticipation of good news at some future date.

Conditions:
* Dow down 54 (0.24%)
* NASDAQ down 56 (0.88%)
* TSLA 344.78, down 6.31 (1.80%)
* TSLA volume 7.3M shares
* Oil 52.22, up 1.56 (3.08%)