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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
I've never been so happy to earn a quarter in all my life! Today was an important day for TSLA longs because the stock finally finished green after this significant drop, despite the best efforts of the shorts. I placed the NASDAQ chart above the TSLA chart in this post because I want to show similarities, and (more importantly) dissimilarities in how the two entities traded today.
The 11 am dip of the NASDAQ led to a dip of TSLA too, but an exaggerated dip, due to short-selling to reinforce the broader market's effects. Now look at the attempted dips of TSLA right before 10 am and right after 12:30 pm (much easier to see on the chart above). These were attempts to sink TSLA but both failed. The first failed because longs jumped right back in and started buying again, the second because the NASDAQ went on a long run up during this time that ultimately fatigued the resources of the shorts to continue that attempt. These two failed dips were important because they used up resources of the shorts. Some time after 1 pm, the NASDAQ began a gentle decline, but TSLA began a much steeper decline as shorts built upon the effects of the broader market. TSLA touched red, rebounded, but then followed the NASDAQ in a descent into the close.
So, who won today's battle? The longs can claim a green day, at last, and the shorts can claim a close slightly below the 100 day moving average of 345.45. More importantly, though, the shorts ran low on ability to force TSLA much lower today and longs are feeling like TSLA is at or near its low for this dip. Consequently, if the macros, FUD, and news allow, the longs can be expected to be just that much more confident tomorrow, and if the shorts are unable to do better than they did today, TSLA may well be ready to recover some lost ground.
Conditions:
* Dow down 12 (0.05%)
* NASDAQ up 10 (0.15%)
* TSLA 345.25, up 0.26 (0.08%)
* TSLA volume 7.2M shares
* Oil 52.11 up 0.23 (0.44%)
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For tomorrow's trading, three positive developments are at hand. First, the "buy at close" trading today saw an astounding 446,000 shares change hands. Anyone think some shorts are starting to close positions? Secondly, TSLA climbed almost a point in after-hours trading, which is another bullish sign. Finally, the failed manipulations by shorts at about 10 am and about 12:30 pm today are indications that the shorts are losing their edge at keeping this stock under control. All it takes is one rally they can't stop and the recovery has begun.
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Today the shorts were at their best game. The early rally after market open was throttled back through some hefty selling, and a game of bop-the-mole took place where the 4 or 5 excursions into the green were dispatched with defensive selling. The most exciting moment of the day came around 1:30 pm when some long with deep pockets saw the broader markets heading upward in anticipation of the new tax plan's reveal by Republicans, and a big buy shot TSLA more than a dollar into the green. For a while it looked as if TSLA would climb with the rest of the market, but some careful capping eventually pushed TSLA back into the red. TSLA was recovering until about 3:30 pm when the NASDAQ began a dip that would take away a rather small portion of the day's gains when TSLA went into a big dip and lost about $4 in that final half hour. Rather than calling this end of day TSLA dip a slow descent into close I think I think there's a better term, which I'll mention below.
I continue to emphasize that the shorts have evolved in their manipulations and currently are getting their best results from either capping after a NASDAQ dip to hold TSLA at the bottom and then push down further or doing what we saw in the final half hour of trading today, which is to sell significantly when the NASDAQ is dipping slightly and disguising the reason for the significant TSLA dip. Maybe we should call it a "Dip on Steroids" when shorts use small broader market dips to disguise big TSLA dips brought about by enhancing the normal TSLA dip caused by the broader market dip with significant short selling. Take a look at the heightened volume during the Dip on Steroids and you will see what I mean. And, of course, if the Dip on Steroids stays low after the broader market recovers, it will hereafter be known as a "Sticky Dip on Steroids."
The good news? No matter how much manipulation the shorts get away with in the short term, eventually the group always gets run over when TSLA heads higher on word of successful execution. The shorts may be skilled at short-term manipulations, but they suck at understanding the long game. Maybe not, though, and here's why. You would think that someone smart enough to manipulate this successfully is smart enough to close most of their short positions before they get slaughtered. I'm wondering if it is the small short-sellers, the chumps, who are left holding the bag when the wiz-kid manipulators take their profits and flee as the downturn comes to an end. Big names such as Chanos say on CNBC that they still maintain a short position in TSLA, but is that position hundreds of thousands of shares or hundreds of shares? No doubt the shorts are going to pay for their hubris in the not so distant future, but for today, they get points for a game expertly played.
Check out this chart of the NASDAQ and compare to TSLA's today.
Conditions:
* Dow up 56 (0.25%)
* NASDAQ up 73 (1.15%)
* TSLA 340.97, down 4.28 (1.24%)
* TSLA volume 6.0M shares
* Oil 52.03, up 0.15 (0.29%)
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bdy0627
Active Member
I'm guessing if you were a short covering, you could buy slower and save more money by buying at a lower average price because TSLA wasn't moving much at the time and your buying when spread out wouldn't have much influence on the stock price. Such a huge purchase in one minute strikes me as a buy by a long to encourage the SP to rise, just as a huge sale within a minute strikes me as a short entering a position and trying to simultaneously send the stock price lower.
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We always talk about shorts manipulating the stock via various tactics (i.e. mandatory morning dip, capping, dip on steroids, whack a mole, etc.). Why are there no bullish traders equally as enthusiastic as the shorts applying techniques to bump up the SP? Maybe there are, but I've yet to see it discussed anywhere. All that typically gets mentioned is institutional or MM buying.
As I have posted before. This is not just a 'short issue'...it is a 'long issue' as well. If there were long buyers opt longs refusing to sell at certain SPs there would be less of the 'shorts are controlling the SP' posts.
Many longs, myself included, are sitting with cash on the sidelines waiting for a sign that the 'trend is your friend' is turning.
Many longs, myself included, are sitting with cash on the sidelines waiting for a sign that the 'trend is your friend' is turning.
To answer your question: This sort of manipulation (large block orders vs. dribbling orders out to control whether the price reacts or not) only works in the very short term. How many Tesla longs are really thinking short-term?
Not many, I guess.
When will that change? When will the real short-term momo traders move in? Maybe early next year?
Not many, I guess.
When will that change? When will the real short-term momo traders move in? Maybe early next year?
I tend to agree with Neroden that the manipulations only work in the short(ish) term. The shorts put a lot of energy into manipulating the stock down to 180 last November (using the fear of the SCTY merger to their advantage) and since then it has been above 380, twice. The farther it is driven down, the farther and faster it rises. For the most part, many shorts are short-termers. These people who control 20ish% of the stock account for 40% of the trades.
That said, you do see manipulations by longs or market-makers as we approach certain Friday afternoons... efforts to get the stock price above or below a certain strike price because they're holding or (more likely) they have sold lots of options. When some long (perhaps with the help of algos) sent TSLA up into the green today at 1:30 pm today, I thought, "this is ballsy but very cool." I think the shorts were absolutely stunned for a few minutes, so yes, it would be possible for a long to start the ball rolling at critical times such as this afternoon, but unless other longs jump in to assist, the effort is not likely to succeed. One reason other longs didn't support the run up was that the shorts (after changing their shorts) went to work within a couple minutes capping the rally and then slowly marching it back down. Longs don't have a swat team standing by to act, as the shorts have. To succeed with manipulations, you need a culture that supports manipulations, and the shorts have that culture right now.
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This is very astute. Twitter trader Justin Pulitzer made the same observation today. He used a rubber band analogy whereby violent relief rallies after a stock has dropped down to base support levels (through intermediate support levels) is akin to a stretched rubber band being released. If you have the stomach to ride it out, the rewards can be greater than when a stock doesn't make it down to lower support levels.... akin to a lightly stretched rubber band.
Even though TSLA lost a dollar and change today, I consider today a positive day for longs. Despite some significant efforts by shorts, TSLA was rising fast and threatening to close in the green at end of day when shorts threw their weight behind stopping TSLA from closing above 340. Shorts were likely short on ammo after a day with little drop in price and because of efforts to defend a 2 pm rally that almost made it to the green. With lower volumes and with lower progress in knocking the stock price down, shorts have just about reached the end of this dip. The reason why? Listen to the value-conscious members of the forum today who were adding shares. The price today is very attractive for the long haul and these investors who added today felt that waiting for a lower price was less important than buying in today because of the potential for this stock to run up in the short term with Australia news Monday early morning and delivery numbers early next week. I added some J19 leaps myself this afternoon.
Notice the after-hours trading. TSLA at the time of this post had gained more than $1 in after-hours trading and was trading less than 30 cents down for the day. I think that both longs and shorts are likely buying in anticipation of any run-up in the early morning trading, due to news from Tesla Energy's event in South Australia.
"Buy(sell) at open" orders were quite high today at 211,000, and "Buy(sell) at close" orders were also high, at around 132,000 shares. Plenty of traders are trying to acquire shares without affecting the share price much, which is one of the reasons this particular method of trading is used.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that in theory the shorts could press for descending below the lower bb in the event of bad news from deliveries, but the bigger message is that even though TSLA descended below both the 50 and 100 day moving averages, longs are selling less with each passing day. There is no underlying dread (other than the unknown about Model 3 ramp) and longs are not reacting in the way the shorts likely hoped with the various technical support numbers taken out.
Conditions:
* Dow up 40.49( 0.18%)
* NASDAQ up 0.19 (0.00%)
* TSLA 339.60, down 1.37 (0.40%)
* TSLA volume 5.3M shares
* Oil 51.56, down 0.58 (1.11%)
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This week, TSLA closed at 341.10, down about $10 from last Friday's closing of 351.09. This is in contrast to last week's 28.72 loss, so the dip is definitely tapering off. On nearly all days of this week, TSLA opened in the green, only to be pushed down in most day's trading by substantial efforts by the short-sellers. We saw lots of mandatory morning dips, some capping, a fair amount of slow descents into close, but the shorts really excelled at their new techniques of Sticky Dips and Dips on Steroids.
Looking at today's NASDAQ trading chart below, you can see positive NASDAQ trading without much in the way of dips. Consequently, the Sticky Dips and Dips on Steroids were pretty much off the table. We saw the age-old slow descent into closing technique employed in the afternoon, but longs marched the SP up and a tug-of-war ensued. Thankfully, TSLA closed up for the day.
What should we expect for the beginning of next week? Trading mostly hinges upon the 3Q delivery numbers that will soon be released. Forum members as a group believe that S and X numbers will be decent to good. The biggest wild card is Model 3 deliveries. If they are low, it just means that the transition to a real production line has taken a few more weeks than planned and isn't the end of the world. Ben Kallo rather expects a lowish number and says he would buy TSLA on any weakness caused by the Model 3 numbers. Thus, I expect another tug-of-war unless the numbers are all good. Shorts will try to focus on low Model 3 numbers and might go out of their way to press the SP down a bit to make their point, and longs like Kallo will be buying. I suspect any dip would be short and with a reasonable explanation for any Model 3 weakness, the dip would be short-lived too. Thus any dip from lowish Model 3 numbers might be a nice buying opportunity.
Have a good weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 24 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ up 43 (0.66%)
* TSLA 341.10, up 1.50 (0.44%)
* TSLA volume 5.1M shares
* Oil 51.58, up 0.02 (0.04%)
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This weekend, be sure to check out the TSLA market action thread here because there's an exciting discussion about Model 3 VIN numbers underway. The link is to a post by @D-egg-O that gets the topic cooking. Thanks D-Egg-O, I owe you a fist bump for this. A few people including @racer26 figured out that you can place VIN numbers into the NHTSA recalls web page and check to see if those VIN numbers have been registered yet. Initial experiments suggest that VIN numbers for up to 1134 Model 3s have already been registered by Tesla. Questions remain about how many breaks exist in the Model 3 VIN numbers between 1 and 1134 and just when Tesla registers a VIN number with the NHTSA (before production, at production start, at completion of production). Will we see a gap up in the stock price on Monday morning? Watch the discussion evolve and use your judgement to decide.
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Shout out to @Dagger for going above and beyond with verifying the VINs, and @austinEV for creating the tracker sheet.
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