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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Unfortunately his departure was not voluntary:
Fidelity's Gavin Baker fired over sexual harassment allegations
Share price has been walked down in orderly fashion for the past 8 days. You can draw a line right through it. Most definitely Institutional with short activity on top.
Also, lets not forget the massive pre-market transaction that occurred a couple days ago. That wasn't short activity. Someone is offloading.
Funds can be as fickle as anyone else though. Nothing to stop them buying back in soon enough.
Also, lets not forget the massive pre-market transaction that occurred a couple days ago. That wasn't short activity. Someone is offloading.
Funds can be as fickle as anyone else though. Nothing to stop them buying back in soon enough.
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Just to be clear - that link shows institutional *sellers* only. The actual link to all institutional owners is TSLA / Tesla Motors, Inc. - Stock Institutional Ownership and Shareholders - Fintel.io
Oh. Actually, this is a big deal. He (Fidelity OTC) was a huge investor in Tesla. If his successor doesn't like Tesla, that's *institutional selling pressure* for a while -- it's the opposite of Tencent's institutional buying pressure back earlier in the year. (But smaller, since Tencent bought 5% of the stock, and Fidelity OTC only had 1.3%.) Fidelity Contrafund is still heavily into TSLA, though.
God, why do powerful men *do* this? Just treat your co-workers professionally, is that so hard?
With multiple allegations from different people, he's almost certainly guilty.
We are now two days away from the Tesla 3Q ER, the results of which will likely set the direction of TSLA for the near term. The good news today is that the downward slide of TSLA was nearly halted with a trading day containing about a dozen crossings of the green/red frontier. Normally I would say that such a down up down up down day suggests a transition from one trading direction to another, but I think the 3Q ER will overrule all this week. Nonetheless, we saw 137,000 shares trade hands at the opening minute of market trading today with the stock price climbing afterwards, suggesting that buyers are looking to pick up shares before this sale is over and the SP begins heading higher.
I continue to believe that the mere act of Elon clarifying the extent of the production delays, the reason, and the expected timeframe for ramping up Model 3 will have a positive effect upon the stock price (unless the news is really bad) because investors' fear of the unknown can often be more damaging than fear of the known.
Conditions:
* Dow down 85 (0.36%)
* NASDAQ down 2 (0.03%)
* TSLA 320.08, down 0.79 (0.25%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 54.05, down 0.10 (0.18%)
This time the TMC community guessed it correctly. TSLA bounced nicely off the 200 Day Moving Average as TT007 suggested and the down up down up down type trading yesterday did in fact signal a change in direction for the stock. The biggest reason for today's 11 point climb was news from Panasonic's CEO that they were about to increase cell production for Model 3 significantly at the Nevada Gigafactory because the bottlenecks that had been slowing Tesla's newest vehicle down were soon to disappear. Apparently one of those bottlenecks was the lack of automation in certain parts of the battery pack assembly process. Thus, this morning, forum members knew that Elon will have good news to deliver regarding the ramp up of Model 3 at tomorrow's ER and we were given a peek into the ER this morning before the rest of the market figured it out. Some of that good news should carry over into tomorrow's trading. Where we go tomorrow after hours and thereafter depends up the ER results and especially about Elon's commentary about the Model 3 ramp up.
The 200 DMA served once again as a strong support mechanism for TSLA
Conditions:
* Dow up 29 (0.12%)
* NASDAQ up 29 (0.43%)
* TSLA 331.53 up 11.45 (3.58%)
* TSLA volume 5.5M shares
* Oil 54.42 up 0.27 (0.50%)
Today the 3Q ER came out and it was disappointing, as witnessed by the 12 point+ drop in after-hours trading. No doubt the shorts will rev up their efforts, some analysts will issue price target downgrades, and the stock will feel more downward pressure. Such is the world of TSLA investing. The words of the Panasonic CEO this week about soon ramping up Model 3 cells turned out to be a much more optimistic summary than Elon gave, and as such the information distorted some of our estimates of this ER.
Aside from an estimated 3 month delay for ramping Model 3 and a temporary dip in S & X gross margins (due to the 90kwh batteries being replaced by the 100kwh batteries), the company is still healthy. Demand in Q4 for all products, (all vehicles plus energy products) remains strong. Tesla has $3.2 billion in the bank, enough to easily see it through the Model 3 ramp up. Tesla energy products had a gross margin of about 25%, which means they're going to be a significantly profitable portion of the company as they expand. The semi-truck reveal and something else are coming our way later this month.
So, fasten your seat belt as we weather this storm. The future still looks bright for Tesla. We have maybe a 25 point downside potential in the short term and a 200 point upside potential in the next couple of years.
Conditions:
* Dow up 58 (0.25%)
* NASDAQ down 11 (0.17%)
* TSLA 321.08, down 10.45 (3.15%)
* TSLA volume 8.5M shares
* Oil 54.34, up 0.04(0.07%)
Today must have been a very frustrating day for the shorts. Here was their opportunity to build upon the somewhat disappointing news of the 3Q ER and buyers came out in droves. Volume was a robust 19.8 million shares, which made manipulations much more difficult, and during the first minute of market trading 307,000 shares traded hands with enough buying pressure that the stock rose until a little before 10am. Then the stock dipped, with a help from shorts and weak longs selling over 100,000 shares during the minute of 10:52am, but the resulting dip lasted mere minutes before buying pushed the SP higher. Considering that the yesterday's post-market trading was just a bit below $305, today's close is only about $5 below that mark. Not bad at all, considering it was the first market trading day after bad news.
Why the buying frenzy? This close to the Model 3 ramp up, such a price is very attractive. Adam Jonas suggested buying any weakness. The more conservative members of these forums had held out for 310 and here we are $10 below that level yet the bad news is primarily an M3 ramp up delay of a few months, which isn't such horrible news if the delays remain within the stated timetable. Likely, there are a large number of buyers (longs and shorts) ready to pick up shares when they believe TSLA has bottomed out and that bottom might soon be upon us. With longs and shorts both eyeing purchases at these attractive prices, any significant climb that cannot be stopped by capping might lead to a significant gain, which would encourage additional buying. If you plan to do some buying, grab some soon or watch this stock like a hawk if you plan to hesitate because when it breaks upward, it could be a brisk rise.
The downside risk is that once volume decreases, the shorts will be up to their usual tricks, trying to engineer yet a better exit point. In particular, watch for declines in the NASDAQ that can be used for Sticky Dips on Steroids. Whether we break higher soon or whether we drift down further depends, I believe, to a large extent upon whether shorts can use NASDAQ declines to artificially push TSLA down further.
Today we saw huge volume and a return to shorts accounting for the majority of trading (54%)
At the ER, Tesla took a financially conservative position, which is to delay a 2nd Model 3 production line until the first has proven itself at above 5,000 Model 3s a week, to reduce S and X inventory in Q4 by selling more Ss and Xs than it produced, and to control spending on superchargers, stores, etc. Such a change of tactics is likely welcomed by many investors as it removes risk from owning TSLA stock.
At the present price point, I don't know many longs who are poised to sell, but I know many poised to buy. Invest accordingly.
Conditions:
* Dow up 81 (0.35%)
* NASDAQ down 2 (0.02%)
* TSLA 299.26, down 21.82 (6.80%)
* TSLA volume 19.8M shares
* Oil 54.82, up 0.28 (0.51%)
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Today's volume of nearly 9 million shares traded plus a steadily rising NASDAQ put the kebosh on the shorts' plans and TSLA enjoyed a positive day. We saw a mandatory morning dip pull TSLA below 296 before bulls scooped up shares at bargain prices. Until about 2pm a game of bop-the-mole ensued as shorts began selling to keep the stock in the red and discourage a breakout, but with no dips in the NASDAQ's steady rise the shorts ran low on ammo and shortly after 2pm TSLA started rising enthusiastically. Capping pushed the stock below 304 and held it there for half an hour, but the capping failed and TSLA enjoyed two more runs upward before closing at 306, which places it higher than at the end of post-market trading on ER day.
If you're a short looking to manipulate TSLA during a NASDAQ dip, this is the kind of trading day that really sucks
Once Tesla solves the Model 3 bottlenecks, this stock is heading upward. In the meantime, different camps are predicting different outcomes. Primarily-technical traders such as OptionSniper are considering today's rise as merely a bounce and that a dip into the 260 or 270s is yet to come. More optimistic investors are looking at the attractive price for Tesla this close to Model 3 ramp up and are looking for more price recovery soon. I tend to be one of the optimists and have been warning buyers to keep an eye on the stock because it can rise very quickly. In order to hold gains such as today's, Tesla will need to demonstrate that Model 3 bottlenecks have indeed fallen and output is ramping up. For this reason, looking at VIN numbers in the wild will remain important. We're in a very similar situation to the time shortly after October 1 when the Q3 delivery numbers were released. Investors cut Tesla some slack on low Model 3 delivery numbers for a few weeks but expected improved results. When those results did not materialize, dread set in and the shorts gained plenty of success in driving down the stock price by taking advantage of that dread with their manipulations.
For the week, TSLA closed at 306.09, down 14.78 from last Friday's 320.87.
What happens next week? It'll be a contest involving volume, Model 3 sightings, macros, and FUD or real news. Once the buying cools a bit and volume drops, shorts may make progress with driving the SP down by taking advantage of NASDAQ dips. Their sticky dip on steroids tactics have worked well in recent weeks on low volume days. Counter-balancing these dips will be buying by longs who recognize that today's prices are very attractive. Sightings of Model 3s in the 600 VIN number range and above would be catalysts to propel the stock upward.
TSLA's rise above 320 would relieve much of the worry of technical traders as the stock would then have regained it's 200 day moving average. The good news today is that TSLA is once again above its lower bollinger band.
The 3Q ER this week was a disappointment, but we all survived and TSLA will run uphill to the high 300s and beyond soon enough. Stay long, avoid shortish term gambles unless you have extremely strong and reliable info to work with, and have a good weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 23 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ up 49 (0.74%)
* TSLA 306.09, up 6.83 (2.28%)
* TSLA volume 8.9M shares
* Oil 55.64, up 1.10 (2.02%)
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OptionSniper has changed his prediction for next week: "big green candle today w/ long bottom stick. good signal for a strong bounce to 311, possibly 314 317. but weekly seems not settled." Option_Sniper on Twitter
In technical terms it's called a regression to Mitchji's wife prediction. MWP.
This morning we saw light trading interspersed with heavy selling session spurts, suggesting short-selling in an effort to depress the stock price. At times only hundreds of shares traded in a minute, at other times we saw 40,000 shares sold in a minute. Right now 300 is working as a nice support level and although the SP has dipped below, buyers materialize and the stock regains 300. I think the shorts were taking precautions to prevent a typical Monday morning amateur hour rally. It worked. Shortvolume shows only about 45% of trading today was from shorts. Looks like the shorts who sell into new positions in the mornings to hobble the stock price tend to buy in towards the end of the day, and perhaps that's why we see an uptick in trading later in the day. In the final minute of market trading today, we saw 106,000 shares trade hands.
If shorts can penetrate 300 and drive the stock lower this week it will likely be with the help of a biggish NASDAQ dip. On the other hand, we heard news of a truck carrying 8 Model 3s to So Cal spotted and the driver claims a highest VIN number above 1000, so perhaps Tesla is making progress with the bottlenecks, though the week over week VIN number changes remain small. Thus, we're primarily seeing serious short-selling efforts (awaiting help from macros) vs. good news or hope of good news on Model 3 ramp-up.
Conditions:
* Dow up 9 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.33%)
* TSLA 302.78, down 3.31 (1.08%)
* TSLA volume 6.5M shares
* Oil 57.33, down 0.02 (0.03%)
Today was an important trading day for TSLA more because of what didn't happen than what did happen. From before 10am until after 12 noon, the NASDAQ was in a descent. Volume of TSLA was relatively low. Shorts had put pressure on TSLA yesterday. The expectation? The shorts should have pushed for a Sticky Dip on Steroids as the NASDAQ dropped and capped the resulting dip. Instead, we saw TSLA resisting a fall below 300. At no time today in regular market hours did it dip below 300, which was an improvement over yesterday. Further, investors bought 204,000 shares during the first minute of market trading today, which led to a small increase in the stock price. Bottom line: it looks to these eyes that some institutional investor has been picking up shares of TSLA at prices just above 300 today. This demand for shares foiled the sinister plot of the shorts today, hurrah.
The NASDAQ fell for about 2 1/2 hours this morning but the shorts were unable to take advantage of the NASDAQ dip, due to a big buyer in the market for TSLA at 300 a share.
What happens tomorrow? It depends upon how long the hunger remains for TSLA in the current price range. As long as sufficient buyers are valuing TSLA as a good buy at the current prices, and as long as macros remain reasonable, the stock will show resistance to downward pressure.
Conditions:
* Dow up 9 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ down 18 (0.27%)
* TSLA 306.05, up 3.27 (1.08%)
* TSLA volume 5.3M shares
* Oil 57.01, down 0.34 (0.59%)
Today was the fifth trading day following the 3Q ER. The high volume of day one has given way to an alternating red-green pattern in which each trading day has less volume than the day before. Interestingly, the high for each day has pretty much stayed below 306 but the low of the day has been rising, thus creating a wedge shape (see daily chart below), as Mike Smith pointed out in the market action thread. If the pattern continues, tomorrow will be a green day and soon the wedge will break up or down. If macros are reasonable, I suspect up.
Looking at the daily trading you can see a mandatory morning dip, a recovery to nearly the green an hour before close, a push lower by shorts (imo), and then a stock price creeping higher in after-hours trading.
Conditions:
* Dow up 6 (0.03%)
* NASDAQ up 21 (0.32%)
* TSLA 304.39, down 1.66 (0.54%)
* TSLA volume 4.7M shares
* Oil 56.82, down 0.37 (0.65%)
Today was the day the shorts had waited for. The broader markets headed downhill today and the shorts began their mandatory morning dip on steroids routine shortly after market open. TSLA dove so deep so quickly that its chart resembled the trajectories of those brave cliff divers in Mexico. At one point 54,000 shares traded hands in a single minute and TSLA quickly dipped through 297 and threatened to descend through 296. Big shorts no doubt were ecstatic. The second wave of the Q3 ER dip was underway! And then something funny happen: TSLA started climbing. Shorts threw more selling at it but with the exception of a few minor dips it continued to climb. Eventually the shorts gained ground and brought TSLA down to 299. A mere 299! What's wrong with these longs, they keep buying! Lo and behold, TSLA marched higher again and no joy for a close below 300. As TSLA approached the red/green transition line, they threw more selling at TSLA to gain the smallest of victories (a close in the red), and TSLA finished the day down 0.46%, less than the NASDAQ's 0.58% loss. They'll be drinking at the Tesla Short Sellers' Tavern tonight. Heavily.
And so we see once again that buyers materialize when TSLA dips beneath 300. That strength then leads to the stock running up higher in the afternoon. The run up to a breath away from the red/green transition line is also a common pattern now, a place where you can almost depend upon the shorts to draw a line in the sand. Over 90,000 shares were traded in the final minute of trading today, a chance for shorts to reduce their positions and prepare for the next manipulation opportunity. The nagging questions the shorts should be asking is this: If they cannot push TSLA below 300 and if Model 3 ramp is coming sooner or later, what is the point of maintaining a short position? Good news could have a very dramatic effect upon the stock price. It's all a matter of time.
Conditions:
* Dow down 101 (0.43%)
* NASDAQ down 39 (0.58%)
* TSLA 302.99, down 1.40 (0.46%)
* TSLA volume 5.4M shares
* Oil 57.10, up 0.29 (0.51%)
Ulmo
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