June 15 Conditions:
* DOW down 35 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ down 9 (0.18%)
* TSLA up 2.74 (1.27%)
* TSLA volume 2.9M
* DOW down 35 (0.20%)
* NASDAQ down 9 (0.18%)
* TSLA up 2.74 (1.27%)
* TSLA volume 2.9M
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Ho hum. TSLA trading followed the broader indexes today, very close to the DOW initially during the depressed morning hours and then more resembling the NASDAQ as the DOW entered positive territory.
Conditions:
* DOW up 93 (0.53% )
* NASDAQ up 10 (0.21%)
* TSLA up 0.23 (0.11%)
* TSLA volume 2.4M shares
* News: VW announced intentions of EV manufacturing at a future date. This announcement follows another this week by Germany of intentions to require vehicles sold in 2030 and after to be EVs. Such a decision by Germany, together with EV incentives, helps to derisk the transition by German auto manufacturers to EV production.
Thank you for keeping daily trading charts updates. Your comments are also very appreciated. I wish you would share your theories in "trading strategies tread". I would love some discussion about this.
Wenche, I am not shy about telling if I am optimistic or pessimistic on this daily trading thread. For the sake of ease, I will probably keep my postings here. Wishing you well with your trading!
My trading strategy these days is pretty simple. I have shares of TSLA, and I have quite a few deep in the money leaps. Over the past few months I have been moving many of my deep ITM Jan17 leaps to similar deep ITM Jan18 leaps because there's little time value required when you are in so deep. I have a few Jan18 270s and 300s because I think they'll easily pay off by then, but for the most part I trade in deep ITM leaps so that I can move them forward year after year, if needed until I get a significant payoff. As the stock price starts reaching levels where I think it is no longer undervalued, I start selling calls and turning the money into shares so that I am not nearly so leveraged when the inevitable peak and descent comes along. Sometimes I will buy shorter-term calls when I am feeling particularly confident about the positive outcome of an event, but this is not often. For the most part, short-term trading is just too unpredictable in my eyes most of the time, but the long-term prospects for Tesla look more and more solid as we move forward. I am very confident in Tesla's long-term prospects and its long-term value to shareholders.
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3Victoria
Active Member
I'll go over to the trading strategies thread and show what I do.
Here's the chart from a very interesting trading day. Explanation to follow in another post.
Conditions:
* DOW down 58 (0.33%)
* NASDAQ down 45 (0.92%)
* TSLA down 2.46 (1.13%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* This story said that an unusually high number of Jun17 2016 215 strike puts were traded on 6/16
Here's a view of today's NASDAQ trading on a somewhat exaggerated scale to offer some insight into today's TSLA trading. The NASDAQ traded highest during the first hour, and it was also the first hour of the day when TSLA was trading in the green. Then the NASDAQ descended further into the red and kind of stabilized there while TSLA flirted between red and green for most the day. So far- no surprises, TSLA was following overall NASDAQ trends but doing better than the index.
Then an interesting fact was pointed out in this article: a surprisingly large number of TSLA options traded hands on Thursday with a particularly high number of Jun17 2016 215-strike puts being traded. You had to wonder why someone was buying so many 215 puts when after noon on Thursday a descent below 215 looked pretty unlikely. Then about 3pm we saw TSLA descend steeply towards 215, then it broke below, came back above, broke below, recovered and then lost the ability to penetrate this support level.
The big question is who was doing the selling to bring TSLA down in the last hour? There really was no news to justify longs doing it. One very knowledgeable forum member suggested market makers (but the max-pain level was 222.5 for today). My theory is the people who bought the 215 puts were at the helm of this afternoon's short selling because they had the most to gain.
The problem with blaming movements of TSLA on mischievous shorts is that it costs a lot of money to steer TSLA, even on a relatively light trading day. During one of the deepest selling stabs, the TSLA chart above shows over 18,000 shares sold that minute. Looking at other selling-sprees that influenced the stock price, I saw at least 5,000 shares involved. I'm thinking it would take at least ten stabs to get a really good sink going that could take TSLA down 3 points (unless stop-losses allowed the longs to help out). Multiply 10 x 8,000 shares of a typical manipulative stab x $215 share price and the funds needed to get something going is about $17.2 Million. Of course shorts don't actually fork out $17 million to play this game, they borrow the shares, but still the amount of money one needs to have available to play this game must be immense.
Tesla will soon enough announce good news and the stock will rise, there will be no holding it back on good news. On days like today, though, I see TSLA performing better than the broader markets and then suddenly, with no news out there, the stock plunges for no apparent reason and closes with a bigger percentage loss than the NASDAQ.
Let me go a step further. I've seen FUD attacks that were very transparent and yet the stock quickly descended afterwards. Was that particular descent really caused by the FUD, or might the two be timed so that the FUD hid the fact that the drop was caused by manipulative short-selling? We'll never know. I do have a wild theory about today's plunge, however. The plunge might have looked reasonable if it followed a FUD piece in the media, but perhaps the individual that would release the FUD got gunshy after the article came out about an abnormal number of 215-strike TSLA puts being traded and that these puts were good for only one more day. Maybe he didn't like the thought of a SEC investigation. Without the FUD, the plunge looks pretty clearly manipulative.
Manipulation remains the most reasonable explanation in my eyes at such times, but I certainly invite your alternate explanations.
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Thanks for the edit (last three paragraphs). I stepped away from your original post and thought the same thing! Glad you put it down with your edit.
The only other explanation I can think of is, could it be some type of computer algorithm/high speed trading strategy? Given the volume of the trade and short term nature, the profit per share must be tiny but presumably made up in volume. Sounds like what I have heard some algorithms and high speed systems supposedly work. I just don't know if they work with puts/calls since these are agreed upon contracts not direct trades.
I still think it's your "wild (not so wild) theory" at play. Let me add to it, maybe original put followed by high speed trading algorithm to drive the price down.... Wonder if that can work? Wonder what triggers SEC investigations?
PS--
I'm probably totally wrong in the second paragraph, especially pricing, but taking a wild stab for alternative explanations.
The only other explanation I can think of is, could it be some type of computer algorithm/high speed trading strategy? Given the volume of the trade and short term nature, the profit per share must be tiny but presumably made up in volume. Sounds like what I have heard some algorithms and high speed systems supposedly work. I just don't know if they work with puts/calls since these are agreed upon contracts not direct trades.
I still think it's your "wild (not so wild) theory" at play. Let me add to it, maybe original put followed by high speed trading algorithm to drive the price down.... Wonder if that can work? Wonder what triggers SEC investigations?
PS--
I'm probably totally wrong in the second paragraph, especially pricing, but taking a wild stab for alternative explanations.
It's fun to speculate about such things, but in the end we'll never know for sure. Curt Renz has put forward a very plausible theory that we're just seeing a brokerage hourse or two with a 215 max pain deciding to manipulate TSLA in the final hour of a Friday in which lots of options come due. He may be right. Still, I see the three pushes below 215 as somewhat problematic for his explanation and I see the great quantity of 215-strike puts that were good for only a day and a half as being a mystery under that explanation as well.
What I do know is that when stock price is artificially lowered, it has a tendency to come back up pretty soon, and I also know that when the stock is trading at a strong support level such as 215, we're likely to see an upward movement on Monday morning if the macros and the FUD allow. For this reason I picked up a couple of calls at 215 today that are mostly for speculation and I hope to make a quick buck on them. We'll see.
Today we finally had a chance to see TSLA trading with a healthy macro environment and the results were quite positive. Both the DOW and the NASDAQ opened high in the morning and then had a slow drift-down to close positively but at less than half their early gains, and TSLA followed this general trajectory.
Conditions:
* DOW up 130 (0.73%)
* NASDAQ up 37 (0.77%)
* TSLA up 4.23 (1.96%)
* TSLA volume 3.56M shares
* Some positive news today included a somewhat more optimistic view of factory operations by analyst RBC and then afternoon mentions of possible China car production by Tesla.
BTW: I seldom trade short-term options, but I sold at 222 this morning the calls I bought on Friday's late afternoon low near 215 and took a nice profit. The combination of a manipulated low price on Friday afternoon, better macro outlook, and the probability of a Monday morning bump in TSLA share prices led to the decision of when to buy and when to sell.
Here's the chart of Monday's trading including all after-hours trading. While regular trading closed at 219.70, the after-market trading closed at 220.48, about $0.75 higher. Cut loose from the pull of the broader markets, TSLA drifted upwards a fair amount after hours, and it's my belief such an upward drift is a mildly bullish signal for the next day's trading, absent news and macro effects. For some reason, the following pre-market trading is typically less useful in predicting the coming day's performance.
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I'm sure everyone has their theories on how best to do a weekend call. Most would probably buy weekly calls that expires the next Friday, because they are cheapest and have lots of leverage. For strike, I would go for something that is achievable during that time period. I actually was quite conservative and bought 2 Jul15 225 calls so that I had several ways of recouping my investment if the macros went south on Monday. It was a quick $500 profit and I am happy. Likely I could have made quite a bit more money if I hung onto them but I had a plan, I stuck with it, and it paid off.
That said, this was a particularly attractive weekend, sitting right on the support level of 215 after a manipulation with a likely catalyst 2 weeks down the road and a good chance of macros turning positive. I seldom bet money over a weekend.
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Today was a great opportunity to watch TSLA trading in a near-neutral macro environment. TSLA carried some of the positive sentiments from yesterday into the pre-market as well as the first 45 minutes of trading. From there it hovered above and below 220 for most of the day. Notice the dip just prior to closing, in which it reached $0;.09 below the starting point at closing. Originally, the tug-of-war was for 220, as you can see that the stock crossed that level many times during the day. In low volume trading days such as today we have plenty of opportunity for shorts to mildly-influence stock price without much expense to keep the longs from getting too optimistic about TSLA quite yet.
Conditions:
* DOW up 25 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ up 7 (0.14%)
* TSLA down 0.09 (0.04%)
* TSLA volume 2.48M shares
I am guessing that in a neutral macro environment with no games played by shorts, TSLA would like to trade in the low 220s until we approach early July, when the Q2 delivery numbers will be released.
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Your prediction was overtaken by events, and it wasn't even the shorts who played the games... ;-)
Here's the after-hours trading for your inspection.
* At some point after-hours, Telsa announced plans to acquire Solar City. Can you spot that moment on the chart?
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