Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today was absolutely classic manipulations by shorts. The mandatory morning dip had all the fingerprints of manipulative short-selling with the deep dips followed by immediate near recoveries. By about 11am the stock recovered the dip losses and TSLA spent just about all of the remainder of the day in a game of "whack the mole" in which selling takes place as needed to keep the stock in the red.. Finally, 20 minutes before close, the broader indexes dipped, which allowed for a dip in TSLA too.

All told, TSLA performed quite well for a stock that had gained 20 points the previous day. The TSLA shorts traded 53% of today's shares, down from recent days but still very high for a day with 7 million shares trading hands.

Today's big news was an announcement that GF2 in Buffalo, N.Y., was now producing solar roof tiles and installations to normal customers has now begun. Such news makes you wonder if a leak of this news was the catalyst that got yesterday's rally started, and once the rally started it took on a life of its own as both shorts and longs joined in the buying.

What to expect for tomorrow? The 200 day moving average is less than $1 below today's closing price, and so the shorts will no doubt try to reclaim the 200 dma. At some point more good news will come forth and these small, incremental gains by shorts will be wiped out as TSLA readjusts to a price more in line with non-manipulated market forces.

These games with the shorts will continue until Model 3 is showing strong growth, at which point a fairly large number of shorts bail and rapid climb begins. Another possibility is that if TSLA enters a period of slow, steady growth, the manipulative games by shorts become unprofitable. For example, the shares sold short in the vicinity of 336 today can be covered profitably tomorrow if the shorts are able to depress the SP below 333 and covering takes place there. The problem with a slow climb in the SP, though, is that these manipulations become unprofitable for shorts. So.... a slow climb is not good for manipulators, but they can actually make money on big run-ups in the SP, followed by slow declines. Thus, sell-and-hold shorts consistently lose money but the manipulative shorts often make money.

Conditions:
* Dow up 103 (0.41%)
* NASDAQ up 6 (0.09%)
* TSLA 333..69, down 2..72 (0..81%)
* TSLA volume 7.1M shares
* Oil 63.42, up 0.46 (0.73%)

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA set a record for the longest game of "whack the mole" in recorded history. The entire day was a series of upward pressures by longs to buy the stock and countermeasures (selling) by the shorts to push the SP back into the red. As you can see, the longs won the tug-of-war in the closing minutes. Should you care? I think so, and here's why. Volume was a mere 4.2M shares today. It was a somewhat negative day for the macros. The shorts were incapable of stopping longs from beginning a slow upward trend with the stock, even in these conditions. My guess is that if macros allow, TSLA will run up more in the near future. There's buying pressure, and if a slow climb continues, the manipulative shorts will grow tired after too many losing days in a row.

How are the shorts doing in 2018? Here's a tweet from Ihor Dusaniwsky:

If short interest is up 9% for the year, and the SP was up (333.69 - 311.35 = 22.34 /311.35 = up 7%. Thus, if short holdings are up 9% in $ and the stock price is up 7%, the quantity of shares controlled by shorts are up about 2%. If shorts held about 30.4M shares at the beginning of the year, they now hold about 31M shares, which is positive for two reasons: even with the number of shares held by shorts increasing, TSLA has still climbed about 7% and also 31M shares sold short held at what may soon be a big run-up in stock price is a great setup for longs to enjoy really nice appreciation of this stock once the shorts start bailing.

Looking at the technical chart, TSLA has held its position above the 200 day moving average (red line) and we have nearly $13 of headroom at the current SP before bumping into the upper bb.

Today TSLA short percentage of trading dropped to about 50%. It hasn't been this low since late November. The drop in short percentage of trading supports a conclusion that the SP might rise before long.

I've grown bullish today because of what has happened in the previous 5 days:
* Thursday- TSLA regains nearly all of dip after 4Q deliveries message
* Friday- TSLA gains about $2 after a mandatory morning dip and a full day of effort from shorts to depress the SP
* Monday- TSLA gains nearly $20
* Tuesday- Shorts push hard on a morning dip of about $8, SP recovers, whack-a-mole needed to keep TSLA from running higher into the green, then shorts luck out in final 20 minutes and Dow and NASDAQ dip and TSLA follows
* Wednesday- All shorts can do on a day with down macros is try to contain the stock by full-day whack-a-mole effort, but longs prevail in final 30 minutes

So... the trend is continued upward pressure and degraded success by shorts in manipulating the stock. Such a situation is a great setup for a nice climb (macros, news, and FUD permitting).

Conditions:
* Dow down 17(0.07%)
* NASDAQ down 10 (0.14%)
* TSLA 334.80, up 1.11 (0.33%)
* TSLA volume 4.2M shares
* Oil 63.44, up 0.48 (0.76%)

 

[Papafox]

Monitoring the activity of short sellers yesterday did indeed give us advanced warning that today might be a very interesting day for TSLA. Today TSLA ran up about $9 before giving up about 2/3rds of those gains in the final hour. Macros were not the cause of the fade since both the Dow and the NASDAQ continued their steady rises throughout the day. Here are three possible explanations for the final hour fade:
1) Some of what we saw could have been profit-taking. At its peak today, TSLA was up about $28 for the week. Now we're up about $21-22 from Monday morning, which is still not a bad week so far ; )
2) Shorts have returned. They come in two varieties: the classic sell and hold shorts who routinely lose lots of money, and the manipulators who churn lots of shares each day, using various techniques to depress the SP. I suspect most of the manipulative shorts also maintained a core holding of short shares in TSLA which benefited from their efforts. What if these more manipulative shorts threw in the towel, closed out their long-term TSLA holdings, and sat on their hands for a day or two? The percentage of TSLA trading by shorts has been falling noticeably the previous two days, and so this scenario makes sense on that level. This week's run-up was not built upon specific news, however, but upon general speculation that the Model 3 ramp-up is underway. Therefore, if the shorts came back to TSLA hard an hour before close and started selling like gangbusters (nearly 100,000 shares between 3:09pm and 3:13pm, inclusive), then they could knock the stock price down and cover at a profit. Sell and hold shorting is madness in the current environment, but hit and run events can still be profitable, if that is what happened.
3) A combination of the above with #2 prompting #1

The good news is that if you bought at 313 as Option_Sniper suggested or a few dollars less if you waited for the fallout of the Q4 delivery report, you're sitting in a comfortable position to watch the inevitable climb of TSLA over the coming year.

Conditions:
* Dow up 206 (0.81%)
* NASDAQ up 58 (0.81%)
* TSLA 337.95, up 3.15 (0.94%)
* TSLA volume 6.6M shares
* Oil 63.80, up 0.23 (0.36%)

 

[Papafox]

Well, the plot thickens. Shortvolume.com shows that TSLA percent of trading by shorts jumped back up to 54% today, even on the higher volume, suggesting that a number of shorts took advantage of the rise today to sell high and buy low later (they hope). Such information supports case # 2 in the previous post. Meanwhile, Option_Sniper sees the possibility of TSLA going as low as 334 before it starts heading up to 351. He is also talking about a golden cross, where the 50 dma rises to cross the 200 dma, and such a move would be seen bullishly by technical traders. The fun is just beginning.

 

[Navin]

An another explanation is that the market makers (options desks) know there are lots of retail gamblers out there buying weeklies. Think of 8k people followIng options sniper like he’s a trading messiah. The volatility could be the clearing function wiping out the option retail holders. House wins!!

Do see some late post AH pops. Could those be signaling that there is more upside ahead.

 

[Papafox]

An another explanation is that the market makers (options desks) know there are lots of retail gamblers out there buying weeklies. Think of 8k people followIng options sniper like he’s a trading messiah. The volatility could be the clearing function wiping out the option retail holders. House wins!!

Do see some late post AH pops. Could those be signaling that there is more upside ahead.

Navin, please help me understand how this works. To hedge against a whole bunch of calls taken out, would the market makers always sell shares, or is it possible they might just short some shares for a day or two to accomplish the same thing? If the MMs could short, might that explain the jump upward in short volume today?

 

[Reciprocity]

View attachment 272584
Monitoring the activity of short sellers yesterday did indeed give us advanced warning that today might be a very interesting day for TSLA. Today TSLA ran up about $9 before giving up about 2/3rds of those gains in the final hour. Macros were not the cause of the fade since both the Dow and the NASDAQ continued their steady rises throughout the day. Here are three possible explanations for the final hour fade:
1) Some of what we saw could have been profit-taking. At its peak today, TSLA was up about $28 for the week. Now we're up about $21-22 from Monday morning, which is still not a bad week so far ; )
2) Shorts have returned. They come in two varieties: the classic sell and hold shorts who routinely lose lots of money, and the manipulators who churn lots of shares each day, using various techniques to depress the SP. I suspect most of the manipulative shorts also maintained a core holding of short shares in TSLA which benefited from their efforts. What if these more manipulative shorts threw in the towel, closed out their long-term TSLA holdings, and sat on their hands for a day or two? The percentage of TSLA trading by shorts has been falling noticeably the previous two days, and so this scenario makes sense on that level. This week's run-up was not built upon specific news, however, but upon general speculation that the Model 3 ramp-up is underway. Therefore, if the shorts came back to TSLA hard an hour before close and started selling like gangbusters (nearly 100,000 shares between 3:09pm and 3:13pm, inclusive), then they could knock the stock price down and cover at a profit. Sell and hold shorting is madness in the current environment, but hit and run events can still be profitable, if that is what happened.
3) A combination of the above with #2 prompting #1

The good news is that if you bought at 313 as Option_Sniper suggested or a few dollars less if you waited for the fallout of the Q4 delivery report, you're sitting in a comfortable position to watch the inevitable climb of TSLA over the coming year.

Conditions:
* Dow up 206 (0.81%)
* NASDAQ up 58 (0.81%)
* TSLA 337.95, up 3.15 (0.94%)
* TSLA volume 6.6M shares
* Oil 63.80, up 0.23 (0.36%)

Why would shorts only short.. aren't there times when you would want to but some calls, like the ones option sniper buys? How do they coordinate? Is it a Spike in short interest that's a signal to other shorts to poor on the gas? I'm guessing that even though it's not the retail shorts, that it's a large number of bigger players? You would think that if these guys where manipulating, they would go with calls when they weren't. Haha.

 

[Papafox]

Why would shorts only short.. aren't there times when you would want to but some calls, like the ones option sniper buys? How do they coordinate? Is it a Spike in short interest that's a signal to other shorts to poor on the gas? I'm guessing that even though it's not the retail shorts, that it's a large number of bigger players? You would think that if these guys where manipulating, they would go with calls when they weren't. Haha.

You raise a valid point for those shorts who don't hold a long-term "core short position" and are merely quick in and out traders. Some of these traders could indeed switch to buying shares or calls when they think it is profitable just as some members of our long community buy puts when it makes sense. I'm sure it happens sometimes but they don't want to get a reputation for doing so and here's why. The manipulative shorts make money when TSLA is heading downhill. In order to get TSLA heading downhill it is quite helpful for new sell-and-hold shorts to sell into new positions. I think this is why shorts like Chanos speak so publicly about shorting TSLA because the sell-and-hold shorts help his position when they establish new short positions. Someone who publicly encourages others to short benefits from drawing in more shorts, but that same person better hide his tactics if he is switching between net short and net long positions. I really don't know anything about how Chanos trades, but I use him as an example because he is perhaps the most publicized large short out there right now.

 

[avoigt]

Technically the day yesterday may proof to be more important than most people may think. Looked not spectacular but did give important information.

The SP opened and closed above the 100 MA and confirmed it as a solid support. Shorts did not manage to keep the stock below or even in the direction of the 200 MA at 322. This is a sign of strength that could unlock further upside room. Next resistance at 345 tested yesterday and pulled back late in the last trading hour by a desperate move from shorts to keep upside momentum under control. Once 345 and 347 as the next resistance is taken headroom will be up to 360. Bearish trend broke yesterday but shorts managed to bring the SP below in the last hour.

In any case the chard shows a bullish scenario and with (hopefully) all negatives factor in a positive surprise at ER could bring us the required backwind. Overall sentiment is more positive than people anticipate despite daily negative news most of them constructed and finally at the end of the day shorts who will lose their last shorts...

Downside risk is low given many support levels like MA 50, 200 and 100. You never know but even if they are tested again the analysis does not change much.

 

[Papafox]

What I expected for today was a mandatory morning dip, a prolonged game of whack-the-mole similar to Wednesday's, a push down in the final hour by shorts and a recovery in the final 15 minutes by longs who were waiting for the late Friday afternoon discount being offered to them.

What we saw instead was a robust whack-the-mole game at opening that quickly led into a mandatory morning dip, a recovery back to whack-the-mole, but then a variation on the theme. Instead of shorting to hold the price right at the red/green line, it looks like shorts worked around the 336 point today, about 1.5 points below the red/green line. Their plan worked pretty well until about 2:20pm when they started selling to push for a big dip leading into close, but they started the dip too early because buyers looking for Friday afternoon bargains were indeed there and bid the price back up before shorts finally made some progress in the final 5 minutes.

Keep in mind that the games between longs and shorts at TSLA keep changing. Remember not too long ago when we saw the dip on steroids and the sticky dip introduced by shorts to take advantage of down days (or portions of days) with the NASDAQ? More recently, when shorts tried too many weeks in a row of depressing TSLA leading into a low volume Friday closing, some longs wised up and started waiting for the discount. The net result was what you saw today: a dip cut short and then turned into a climb.

Let's see if Option_sniper's prediction comes true. He suggested that TSLA might dip to 334 (as it did today) and then it would start up with 351 in its sights.

For the week, TSLA closed at 336.22, up 19.64 from last Friday's 316.58. There's no trading on Monday and often three-day weekends lead to a nice Tuesday morning opening. We'll see. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 228 (0.89%)
* NASDAQ up 49 (0.68%)
* TSLA 336.22, down 1.73 (0.51%)
* TSLA volume 4.8M shares
* Oil 64.30, up 0.50 (0.78%)

 

[neroden]

For reference, Option Sniper is predicting TSLA at $466 before the end of 2018. And TSLA is one of four stocks he owns long-term (which he doesn't talk about much because long-term holding is not trading and he's talking about trading); the others are NVDA, BABA, and AMZN.

 

[Papafox]

What an interesting day! Check out these components and the day makes sense.

Mandatory Morning Dip
Nine minutes after market open, the shorts tried to define TSLA as an underperformer today and for a few minutes TSLA plunged to 336.23 before recovering.

Up and Over Mt. Everest
Once the Mandatory Morning Dip was extinguished in two shakes of a bull's tail, TSLA headed up like a Falcon 9. This buying is typically fear buying by both longs and shorts who feel that TSLA might be making its big break upward today and they have to get on board, quick! We thought that the first hour of trading after a 3 day weekend could be good, and it was. Alas, since this run-up was not based upon news but rather upon fear that good news about Model 3 ramp may be coming, such climbs are rather tenuous and this one sank pretty quickly after peaking but still retained half of its gains. This volatility during big climbs will likely be with us for a while until real news replaces fear of good news.

Singing the MACRO blues
Alas, the NASDAQ may have started well in the green, but by noon it was apparent that the trend was downward. The DOW also marched downhill, but less dramatically. Consequently TSLA began a descent in the afternoon too.

Going Underwater
TSLA bottomed out at 2:47pm today, along with the NASDAQ's timing of its bottom. The difference between the two dips was that the NASDAQ was underwater by 2pm today and just going lower, but TSLA was in the green then took a breathtaking cliff dive downward (likely a dip on steroids orchestrated by our friendly neighborhood shorts).

Fast Recovery
Once the NASDAQ began its afternoon recovery, TSLA took off uphill and climbed with vigor. I compare this climb to the type of action we've seen on certain Friday afternoons near closing where longs take advantage of the discount the shorts have just engineered. As long as hungry longs are waiting to buy in late afternoon when the dirty work of the shorts is completed, the shorts will have a difficult time manipulating TSLA profitably.

Close of Trading Buying Spree
In the final minute of market trading today, nearly 750,000 shares traded hands. That's more than 8 times normal. I look at buyers during this final minute as being individuals or entities that want to accumulate shares but don't want to raise the SP: shorts, big institutional buyers with plenty more shares to accumulate in coming days, and in this case day traders (seeking to eek out every penny as the stock price ran uphill.

'
NASDAQ daily chart

TSLA daily chart

Short percentage of TSLA trading: With about 53% of TSLA being traded by the shorts today, they're still a serious force in moving the stock price

Technical Chart: The upper bb is about $7-8 above TSLA's price at present, providing enough headroom for upward movement this week. If you realize that the upper bb can be topped for a couple days before it settles underneath, then the headroom is larger. Also, notice the blue line (50 day moving average) moving upward toward the red line (200 day moving average). When the blue line crosses the red line something the technical traders call a golden cross happens, which is bullish and can bring more technically-oriented buyers into activity when it happens.

All in all, it was a good day for TSLA. The other tech stocks I follow were all red today. TSLA was the exception, which suggests strength. Can't wait to see what happens when news of a significant increase in Model 3 output comes.

Conditions:
* Dow down 10 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ down 37 (0.51%)
* TSLA 340.06, up 3.84 (1.14%)
* TSLA volume 6.5M shares
* Oil 63.85, up 0.12 (0.19%)

 

[ggr]

Short percentage of TSLA trading: With about 53% of TSLA being traded by the shorts today, they're still a serious force in moving the stock price

I just realized what a weird graph that is. I couldn't figure out why the percentage was 53% when the rightmost column is more green than red. It's because the scale on the left doesn't start at 0! What a stupid way to graph it. I don't blame you, I assume the graph comes from someone else.

 

[Papafox]

I just realized what a weird graph that is. I couldn't figure out why the percentage was 53% when the rightmost column is more green than red. It's because the scale on the left doesn't start at 0! What a stupid way to graph it. I don't blame you, I assume the graph comes from someone else.

Yeah, the graph can be confusing. The really important information is the blue line, read on the right side (and in text), showing the percentage of trading that is done by shorts. The problem with the bottom of the graph being something other than zero happens on the 1 month and 10 day versions of the graph. On the 2 month version, the bottom of the graph is "zero" and the graph makes sense when you compare the green area for a day's trading to the red area. Maybe I will stick with the 2 month view all the time to avoid this confusion. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[Papafox]

The big story today were the macros, gaining steadily throughout the day, except the NASDAQ peaked a bit after 3pm. With this much pressure for stocks to rise, the headwinds TSLA encountered from macros yesterday were gone and although you see various dip and retreats during the day, buyers always returned to bid the SP back up. For those of you wondering how well TSLA could have done yesterday if macros had been favorable, today is your answer.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA is now very close to the upper bb, which resides at 348.64 at present. As a general rule, TSLA can break through the upper bb but usually doesn't spend more than 2 days above before a combination of rising upper bb and moderating SP brings the price back under the upper bb. For this reason I would expect any gains later this week to moderate and allow the upper bb to rise a bit, but nothing, including a big rise or dip is off the table if news changes.

On January 4 I issued my "shorts are toast" proclamation when the SP was 314.62. That's a 32.54 rise in less than 2 weeks and we've been on the +$$$ side of this action. Let's hope good news comes forth soon regarding the Model 3 ramp so that the recent run-up can be justified and built upon. Volatility remains on the loose until such news comes forth.

Conditions:
* Dow up 308 (1.25%)
* NASDAQ up 75 (1.03%)
* TSLA 347.16, up 7.10 (2.09%)
* TSLA volume 7.1M shares
* Oil 63.97, up 0.24 (0.38%)

 

[Papafox]

We began the day with a brief but spirited mandatory morning dip (courtesy of you know who) which was followed by a steep climb and steep descent, suggesting that the market really wasn't ready for 352 yet. A series of up and down movements suggests longs bidding the SP up and traders and shorts pulling it back down. The steep Himalayas gave way to the Rocky Mountains, to the Appalachians, and finally to a game of whack-the-mole as shorts discovered weakness in the lower-volume afternoon hours. Sure enough, the shorts tried for a Grand Canyon maneuver in the final hour and succeeded in closing below 345, a target I wasn't expecting them to bag today.

So, what we're seeing is the promise of a big run-up in 2018 fueling the buying by longs, even though the recent production rate of Model 3 remains very much elusive over the past two weeks. Anticipation of Model 3 has brought TSLA above 380 twice within the past year, but as the difficulties of producing large numbers of these cars became known, the SP pulled back. So... evidence STRONGLY suggests that TSLA will soar sometime in 2018, but until confirmation of substantial progress in ramping M3 is known, the shorts have some leverage to move the stock backwards when it appears to have run too high without evidence of the ramp. They don't have the ability to do really deep dips, however, unless the macros tank or significantly bad news arrives about Tesla. Remember that shorts need dread within the longs to work their manipulations effectively, and most longs are not showing much dread (other than wondering if they should have sold a portion of their holdings at peak today).

TSLA this morning

TSLA at close today

Take a look at the two TSLA technical charts from today. When the stock was bumping its head on the upper bb today, it was peaking and not going much higher. I believe the inability to break through the upper bb for more than a brief moment led traders to believe it would not happen today, and the next assumption was that its better to sell than to hold because the downside for the remainder of the day was greater than the day's upside (which turned out to be correct).

What to do? For most of us the answer is hold and wait because once the Model 3 ramp increase is confirmed, TSLA is going higher. For those who like to actively trade, you'll likely see a dip some time between now and the Q4 ER, but I would not want to be on the sidelines for the ER because surprisingly good results could give the SP a big kick upward in the time it takes algobots to read the report and hit the buy button. In any event, expect continued volatility until the details of the rate of improvement in Model 3 ramping up is known.

Conditions:
* Dow down 98 (0.37%)
* NASDAQ down 2 (0.03%)
* TSLA 344.57, down 2.59 (0.75%)
* TSLA volume 5.7M shares
* Oil 63.72, down 0.25 (0.39%)

 

[Papafox]

Today, TSLA short interest percentage of trading ran up to 59%, which is a big increase from the past several sessions. Why so big a jump? Shorts likely would agree with me that much of the past run-up has been based upon fear by longs (and some shorts) of being left behind by a stock which has been rising without significant news to encourage that rise. Thus, when the rise reaches apogee, the fun begins for the shorts because they pile on and for at least a few days they get some downward movement (and profits) from shorting the stock.

So, let's say an extra 10% of 6 million shares traded is done by shorts today. That's an extra 600,000 trades which are mostly sales. Consider how successfully 20,000 shares sold in a minute can change the trajectory of TSLA and the shorts would have 30 additional 20,000 shares sold minutes to affect the stock price with. Thus, once the shorts sense weakness (like TSLA bouncing off the upper bb today) they pile in and their mere addition changes a day that would have been green to one with a steep dip into the red in the closing hour.

Alas, eventually the stock hits a support level where longs come out of hiding and start buying back in again, and then the smarter shorts cool it and cover until the next apogee. It is a profitable racket. Of course some sell-and-hold shorts enter at such times too and they end up losing their shirts at a later date.

The good news is that TSLA weathers this storm soon enough and then has a really big day to return to a reasonable trading price.

 

[Papafox]

Potentially important news came forth at the Detroit Auto Show, according to Tesla Daily, and big investors were apparently told at a gathering that Tesla has achieve the 1,000 Model 3s per week production rate that Tesla hinted was possible in the end of December. This is precisely the kind of news that was needed to turn the tide. I had expected a few days of heavy pressure by short-sellers, pushing the SP down a bit each day until it his a strong support level (341?), but the tide definitely turned, and TSLA closed above 350. Such a strong finish on a Friday, especially if it is accompanied by good news over the weekend, could lead to a positive first hour of trading on Monday. Negative influences that could oppose the strong Monday opening are: 1) possible government shutdown, and 2) possible manipulative buying on Friday afternoon to elevate TSLA before yearly leaps expired (followed by Monday selling to dispose of those shares).

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the upper bb is heading upwards at a good rate, sitting at 352.67 and giving TSLA a limited bit of room to run should Monday morning prove positive. Also, notice how nicely the 50 day moving average (blue) has turned upward.

For the week, TSLA closed at 350.02, up 13.80 from last Friday's 336.22. Let's hope that the auto show info is more widely distributed over the next couple of days. Enjoy your weekend!

Conditions:
* Dow up 54 (0.21%)
* NASDAQ up 40 (0.55%)
* TSLA 350.02, up 5.67 (1.58%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 63.31, down 0.58(0.91%)

 

[erthquake]

Minor correction of the production rate statement in that Reuters reported that Chew said Tesla will achieve 1k/wk in January. So they might not quite be there yet, but still good news that it's coming this month.

 

[Papafox]

TSLA's track record of often doing well on Monday mornings that follow Friday's with really positive late-afternoon trading remained intact today as TSLA reached an intraday high of over 357 before giving back most of those gains. What happened? I offer exhibits A and B:

Exhibit A:
TSLA climbed through the upper bollinger band today, but without really solid news to propel the climb, it descended back below the upper bb as the day progressed. Fortunately, the upper bb keeps climbing and stands at 355.80 after Monday's trading. Just as with last week, once TSLA dipped back below the upper bb, it was more likely to go down than up. With significant-enough news, TSLA can zoom through the upper-bb, but today certainly wasn't that day.

Exhibit B: NASDAQ trading today
Meanwhile, a deal to get the U.S. government funded again made progress and the Dow and NASDAQ both showed climbs throughout the day as a result. So, with TSLA sinking below the upper bb before noon and the broader markets heading up and up, money migrated out of TSLA today and into other stocks that more closely run up with the broader markets.

Zooming out a bit, take a look at trading from early November 2017 until the present. What we see is an uptrend with ups and downs, but notice that we see higher lows and higher highs with each gyration. Hold strong or play the dips and climbs, as you wish. The biggest downside to selling some trading shares and waiting for the next dip is that if good news comes forward, that dip you're waiting for won't happen.

In other news, Trump approved a 30% tariff on imported solar panels, which will help Tesla's solar sales from the newly-operational Buffalo factory. We could see a positive effect on TSLA tomorrow.

Conditions:
* Dow up 143 (0.55%)
* NASDAQ up 72 (0.98%)
* TSLA 351.56, up 1.54 (0.44%)
* TSLA volume 6.2M shares
* Oil 63.92, up 0.35 (0.55%)