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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Today was the first full day to see the effects of a 30% tariff imposed on imported solar panels (should benefit Tesla's solar panels and shingles from the newly activated Buffalo factory) plus word of an encouraging compensation package for Elon Musk. The package is based this time on criteria more in line with the interests of investors and requires a more than 10X increase in TSLA's market cap over the coming 10 years in order for Musk to reap maximum benefits. Most importantly, the compensation package commits Elon to at least another 10 years highly involved with Tesla (this is huge!). These two news items were enough to send TSLA above 362 in pre-market trading.
Unfortunately, the market trading for TSLA was much more subdued after a significant decline in SP right after opening. Two explanations are available. First, if short seller percentage of trading was unusually high today, it would suggest a massive defensive move by shorts, who generally regard such a compensation package for Musk as more of a P.T. Barnum effort to suggest huge returns (rather than actual chance of that happening).. The other possibility is that some conservative longs felt uncomfortable about the aggressive expansion Elon is proposing for the coming 10 years. Looking at the percentage of trades performed by shorts today, I see it has jumped way up to 61% today, and for this reason I'm feeling that the vast majority of today's decline from pre-market levels was the result of aggressive early-morning selling by the shorts as a defensive strategy. Yes, some longs may have then questioned the nature of Elon's compensation package after seeing the dipping (mistakingly thinking that other longs were doing the early morning selling), but they were largely wrong. Taking a look at the size of trading per minute, you see a fair number of 30,000+ transactions per minute on a day with moderately low volume. A large stakeholder would spread his selling out, rather than selling in such large batches, and so this trading has all the fingerprints of short-selling in the morning and some bewilderment by longs as the day progressed. Shorts couldn't hold TSLA in the red, however, and with 61% of the trading today and likely very little covering by the shorts (why would you cover as the SP descended?), I pronounce the shorts guilty as charged.
if the longs find their mojo tomorrow it could be a nice green day. Expect a real effort by shorts tomorrow morning with a mandatory morning dip but if longs turn it around convincingly, up she goes. After hours trading shows about a 40 cent improvement, and so the prevailing sentiment is more up rather than more down.
After yesterday's 53% trading by shorts, TSLA saw the number jump to 61%.
On the technical chart, notice that this recent rally has taken TSLA from 305 to the high 350s. Also, notice that the upper bollinger band has been climbing a few dollars every day and TSLA has been more or less mirroring that climb with daily highs often exceeding the upper bb slightly but TSLA never closing above the upper bb. This type of a consistent climb is an excellent way to punish manipulative shorts because it is tough to make money shorting a continually-climbing stock.
Conditions:
* Dow down 4 (0.01%)
* NASDAQ up 52 (0.71%)
* TSLA 352.79, up 1.23 (0.35%)
* TSLA volume 5.4M shares
* Oil 64.78, up 1.21 (1.90%)
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As we last left off, good news had driven TSLA above 362 yesterday in pre-market trading but the shorts sold like crazy right after market open, kept up the pressure (which required 61% of the trading to be done by shorts) and held TSLA's gains to less than $2 for the day. Today, TSLA was once again up in pre-market trading, shorts not surprisingly executed a mandatory morning dip strategy, and until about 11am they were having substantial difficulties holding TSLA in the red. Alas, the NASDAQ (and more specifically NASDAQ tech stocks) took a dive and TSLA tagged along on the dip that bottomed out shortly after 1:00 pm. Looking at the three daily charts below, you can see that other tech stocks such as NVIDIA (second chart) followed the NASDAQ (first chart) down and then back up again. Taking a look at TSLA, though, notice that its recovery from the dip didn't match the recoveries of NASDAQ or NVIDIA. The reason? Capping by shorts, of course.
My point is that the shorts are really working TSLA these days and they got lucky yesterday (longs weren't sure why TSLA plunged so much right after open) and today (a dip of tech stocks and a great opportunity to cap that dip). Of course the damage done by the short sellers will typically get undone during TSLA's next big run upwards, but for now you can consider any purchases of TSLA for a while to be a a somewhat discounted price, with the discount to be paid for (soon enough) by your friendly neighborhood short-seller.
NASDAQ Jan24
NVIDIA Jan24
TSLA Jan24
Conditions:
* Dow up 41 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ down 45 (0.61%)
* TSLA 345.90, down 6.90 (1.96%)
* TSLA volume 5.3M shares
* Oil 65.61, up 1.14 (1.77%)
Here are two charts you need to see to better judge today's TSLA trading. The daily chart shows that TSLA recovered about 70 cents during after-hours trading. That's significant. Secondly, look at the percentage of TSLA trading today conducted by shorts: 64%. They really worked this stock to get their results today. If macros behave tomorrow, this stock could find its way back into the green. With the upper bb above 360 now, TSLA has room to fly if the rally can get solidly underway. Expect a mandatory morning dip tomorrow because shorts have been doing a lot of sell at open the past two mornings.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I really think anemic buying is more responsible factor today.
Today I replenished trading shares that I sold at $356, but I know I wasn't feeling much like it's a great deal. I'm still a bit nervous, where are higher VINs? If I project my own thoughts/feelings, there is going to be subdued buying interest until some M3 ramp uncertainty is removed. I want to see solid 1000 M3 a week, and it feels like line is down...
Though I just checked and VIN 5955 has been spotted, so maybe we're close to a change in the sentiment
Just bought 100 shares after the Mark Spiegel recycled manure CNBC hit piece. Expecting to sell Friday or Monday for a profit.
Today was a day in which the shorts couldn't make much progress with depressing TSLA, and so we had a game of whack-the-mole until about 2:30pm when the BS hit the fan and TSLA dropped 7 points in a minute.
The hit piece was put out by CNBC and can be seen here. It quotes known Tesla haters, starting with the infamous Mark Spiegel.
Not long afterwards, Fred Lambert of electrek.co put out this story which includes a detailed rebuttal from Tesla. The automaker denied the allegations and said:
This is an extremely misinformed and misleading article. To be absolutely clear, we are on track with the previous projections for achieving increased Model 3 production rates that we provided earlier this month."
The unidentified employees and former employees mentioned in the CNBC article are presumably the same employees and ex-employees who have been making comments on various internet discussion pages for the past couple of months. The main problem with the article is that it is using old news which has been today refuted by Tesla. Sheesh.
I see such a recycling of manure as fertilizer that will help my money grow in the long run and can be looked at as a buying opportunity. It is also a reminder of why shoter-term trading of TSLA is such a dicy proposition. You never know when heavy efforts by shorts or such FUD pieces will depress the SP in the short term. In the long term, it all depends upon execution, and so far it looks like 2018 is going to be a great year.
Edit: haha, it didn't take the market long to figure out this CNBC story was pure manure. Hoping you made some money from it too!
Conditions:
* Dow up 141 (0.54%)
* NASDAQ down 4 (0.05%)
* TSLA 337.64, down 8.26 (2.39%)
* TSLA volume 6.6M shares
* Oil 65.20, down 0.41 (0.62%)
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www.shortvolume.com says that the shorts traded 64% of TSLA shares today, one of the highest levels of the year. Mischief today? You bet!
Also, I noticed that at 2:37pm today, over 182,000 shares traded hands in one minute. Consider how you'd feel if you set a stop loss at $336.50 today and it activated. Sometimes stop-loss triggers can save the day, but other times they can bite you. The deep dips and immediate near-recoveries seen with short manipulations are particularly nasty if one of the downward thrusts touches your stop-loss trigger.
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Today was day 2 of unwinding the approx $7 hit TSLA took yesterday afternoon when a misleading CNBC story led to an immediate price plummet. Some of the damage was erased yesterday in after-market trading, most of the remainder was erased today, and if macros permit we will likely see the remainder erased on Monday morning. Good riddance. For those of you who picked up shares yesterday during the CNBC FUD discount plunge, congratulations.
The broader markets were up strongly today, which can sometimes be a difficult environment for TSLA following a successful mandatory morning dip by the shorts, but their efforts were quickly defeated today, allowing TSLA to rise with the rest of the market and not chasing away the traders. If you take a look at the thin blue line on the daily chart above, it represents the price 341, which shorts were defending furiously today with capping efforts. Any time TSLA ran above it, the shorts sold as necessary to pull it back down This number 341 is important because it has been a strong support number (along with 345). In late afternoon, longs overcame the 341 barricade and TSLA exceeded 343 before shorts managed a small dip a few minutes before close.
Since shorts sold a lot of shares near 341 to protect that price point, and since TSLA marched above 341 in the latter part of the afternoon when volume picked up again (and covering was possible), manipulative shorts mostly lost money in today's trading.
The significance of the late-afternoon rally is that it sets the stage for a nice opening on Monday morning, macros allowing. You may indeed see a mandatory morning dip on open, but with any luck it will be dealt with in similar fashion as today's dip.
Looking at the technical chart, I have zoomed out to examine the full rally from early November's 296 to Monday's 360+ morning high. Studying the run-up, you can see three distinct up-down segments to the climb, with each segment having higher lows and higher highs than the previous segment.
The significance of today's action is that it may define the bottom the the third down segment and beginning of the fourth up segment (in which case the shorts who haven't already bailed have effectively shot themselves in the foot). TSLA bounced off the 200 day moving average today and yesterday and if we string a few positive days together we may bring longs out of the woodwork to enjoy the beginning of another up segment. There are no guarantees about Monday, but history suggests a good opening when we see a late Friday afternoon rally and an attractive SP for Monday morning. Judging from recent percentage of trading by the shorts, resistance should be ferocious. Today shorts accounted for 63% of TSLA trading on low volume.
What a week it has been. TSLA exceeded 360 in pre-market trading and a full-court press by shorts plus some skillfully delivered FUD allowed for a decline of 7.17 in TSLA, from last Friday's 350.02 to today's 342.85. Enjoy your weekend. I'm looking forward to Monday morning.
Conditions:
* Dow up 224 (0.%)
* NASDAQ up 95 (0.%)
* TSLA 342.85, up 5.21 (%)
* TSLA volume 4.5M shares
* Oil 66.14, up 0.63 (0.96%)
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Missing %s in Coditions above:
* Dow up 224 (0.85%)
* NASDAQ up 95 (1.28%)
* TSLA 342.85, up 5.21 (1.54%)
* TSLA volume 4.5M shares
* Oil 66.14, up 0.63 (0.96%)
* Dow up 224 (0.85%)
* NASDAQ up 95 (1.28%)
* TSLA 342.85, up 5.21 (1.54%)
* TSLA volume 4.5M shares
* Oil 66.14, up 0.63 (0.96%)
Today TSLA annihilated the CNBC FUD piece of late last week and recovering all losses and then some, but that's old news now.
The day began with a mandatory morning dip backed by down macros. Nonetheless, TSLA rose and poked into the green three times before a game of "whack the mole" by the shorts sent it back into the red. On the 4th excursion into green territory, TSLA held on and exceeded 350 before settling slightly before close. It was a good day for longs!
At 12:48 pm, 189,000 shares traded hands within one minute. Since the stock price did not move with such an enormous transaction, the likely explanation is that this was a planned transfer of funds from one large entity to another. Nonetheless, the stock started climbing shortly thereafter and never looked back.
Why would TSLA perform so well on a day when the macros were down more than half a percentage? One theory is that someone is trading on the belief that something really good is coming for TSLA. Curt Renz made three posts here describing how someone bought 900 out of the money February expiration call contracts for nearly $700,000. Here's hoping this investor is right! Regardless, buyers materialized and TSLA marched up to 350, where it reached resistance for momentarily surmounted.
On the technical chart, you can see that the downward march of TSLA that ended at the red 200 DMA line has now turned into a climb. We've seen false reversals before, so be on your toes, but another positive day added tomorrow would convincingly suggest that the downtrend leg has ended and a new uptrend leg has begun. Since the 3 up-down legs of the runup since early November have each shown higher lows and higher highs, a true 4th leg would show a high that exceeds 360.50. TSLA bounced off the upper bb last time it tried to get over. Let's see what happens this time if the uptrend continues. Fortunately, the 4Q ER next week could potentially include news sufficient to overshadow the influence of the upper bb. Until then, be wary of believing the SP will run above the upper bollinger band.
Conditions:
* Dow down 177 (0.67%)
* NASDAQ down 39 (0.52%)
* TSLA 349.53, up 6.68 (1.95%)
* TSLA volume 4.7M shares
* Oil 65.55, down 0.59 (0.89%)
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Here's a very interesting development: short percentage of trading plunged today. The big questions are 1) why, and 2) How will this development affect your trading?
The question of why is tough to pin down, but as we see how TSLA trades in the coming week, we can better guess the answer.
* One explanation is that the most manipulative shorts threw in the towel today. Perhaps they were the buyers for the 189,000 shares that changed hands in a single minute today. What prompted the buying immediately after the transaction? Perhaps our manipulative shorts have seen something that leads them to believe that TSLA will be running higher (added to the effect of their absence, which is substantial) and they themselves joined the buying after the 12:48 purchase. The key point is that today's big climb started immediately after that exchange of 198,000 shares. Continued low percentage of trading by shorts in coming days and positive SP action would support this theory, an immediate rise in short percentage of trading tomorrow or later this week would sink the theory.
* Perhaps the manipulative shorts just gave up after TSLA turned green today and they're waiting for a higher price target to restart their short-selling manipulations. A low percentage of shorts in trading TSLA until TSLA gains value (bouncing off upper bb again), followed by a big jump upward in short percentage of trading would support this theory.
* Edit add: Another explanation is that the Feb7 vote on Musk's compensation package may be restricting access to shares for shorting because of share recalls and this difficulty in finding shares to short is causing the drop in short involvement today in TSLA trading (and indirectly having a positive effect upon the SP). Thx D-Egg-0
Why does this development matter to your trading?
This rather nice climb on a day with negative macros and no news suggests that when manipulative shorts throttle back their activity, TSLA is going to do substantially better than before. On the other hand, if TSLA is climbing easily to the upper bb and you then see shorts suddenly start short-selling ferociously above 60% of trading (such as in the past couple of weeks) then you might anticipate that a negative price adjustment is coming.
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bdy0627
Active Member
Wow! I didn't see that coming. I thought a fair bit of today's rise might have been shorts covering. I'm wondering if some of the hedge funds that have been shorting are now becoming buyers for the moment. You make an excellent point that the stock will face very strong selling pressure when shorts decide to attack hard again. If we get some real momentum going though, even that may fail. Are some large entities supporting a climb into earnings to profit from? One thing is likely for certain, shorts will hit hard again. It's just a question of when. There isn't anything on the chart to the beginning of December that resembles short interest this low. I'm wondering how far back you would have to look to see a comparably low short interest and how long that lasted?
Possibly shares being recalled for the Feb 7 vote is restricting short selling.
Tesla: Short Interest Update - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Tesla: Short Interest Update - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Today was a major down day for the macros with the DOW losing 1.37% and NASDAQ down 0.86%, but TSLA shrugged off its morning dip and closed down a "mere" 1.06%. Seriously, if the shorts were up to their usual game on a low volume, bad macro day like today, TSLA would be down double this amount, at least.
The explanation for TSLA's rather benign trading today lies in the percentage of TSLA trading done by shorts. Less than 39% of the trading was done by shorts (blue line, read on right side of chart), which is extremely low for TSLA and a far cry from last week's 60-something % days. Why so low? Of the various explanations offered, the one that makes the most sense is a recall of TSLA shares by brokerage houses so that these institutions can vote the Musk compensation question on February 7. Such a recall of short shares suggests a positive influence on TSLA trading between now and Feb 7.
Might the lack of participation in TSLA trading just be a temporary tactics used by manipulative shorts? After seeing how juicy today would have been for a manipulative short-seller and not seeing substantial evidence of manipulations, I can honestly say that we're more likely to see U.S. Congressional Democrats and Republicans sitting around a campfire in complete harmony, holding hands, and singing kumbaya than we are to see shorts pass up such an opportunity.
Now, let's see how TSLA does on a day with low short participation and decent macros. Can't wait!
Conditions:
* Dow down 363 (1.37%)
* NASDAQ down 64 (0.86%)
* TSLA 345.82, down 3.71 (1.06%)
* TSLA volume 4.7M shares
* Oil 63.90, down 0.60 (0.93%)
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I totally agree today could be a big day for longs I suspect a strong close to the month
Yep, the combination of low short-seller participation in trading and a positive macro situation yielded a very nice gain today for us longs. Congrats to all.
The day began with an extremely weak attempt at a mandator morning dip. Often when the broader markets are heading upwards, a dip right after open will cause traders to jump ship and go elsewhere, but the shorts lacked the ammo to hold TSLA down, and once it started climbing it was a terrific day.
Here's the NASDAQ chart for the day, but the DOW chart wasn't much different. The broader markets opened way up but spent much of the day shedding the gains. Again, this environment of descending NASDAQ typically sets the stage for a dip on steroids at TSLA, but it didn't happen. In fact, looking at TSLA, the dip was very constrained compared to the NASDAQ. After the NASDAQ bottomed after 3pm and began rising, TSLA rose too, and at an impressive rate. Overall, this trading environment would not be good for TSLA, but because the shorts are so weak this week, you get to see that TSLA is quite ready to rise.
Looking at the short's percentage of trading today, it was 39%, almost even with yesterday's unusually low figure. Should the Feb 7 ER deliver positive news and encourage shorts to start covering, this stock is heading upward at Falcon 9 speeds. In the meantime, if you look at the after-market trading today, buyers are hungry for TSLA shares and tomorrow looks very promising.
Putting everything into context, you can see that the 4th gyration of the uptrend that started in early November after a 292.63 bottom has now begun. The trend is for higher highs with each gyration, so look for something above 360.50 and possibly much higher. The biggest constraint right now for climbing is the upper bollinger band, which stands at 362.51. That number will keep rising as the week progresses, but please use some caution in aiming higher than the upper bb for options expiring this week. Also, note the blue 50 DMA line approaching the red 200 DMA line. When this golden cross occurs, technically-oriented traders will take notice in a very positive fashion.
In recent news, Bloomberg reports that Tesla has seen some of its $500+ million bond offering oversubscribed by as much as 14X. This very strong demand for Tesla bonds should give Wall Street a positive feeling regarding the company's ability to raise money when it is needed.
Keep those seatbelts fastened because it looks like quite a climb coming in 2018.
Conditions:
* Dow up 73 (0.28%)
* NASDAQ up 9 (0.12%)
* TSLA 354.31, up 8.49 (2.46%)
* TSLA volume 6.2M shares
* Oil 64.78, up 0.05 (0.08%)
DurandalAI
Member
Just stumbled on this thread, didn’t realize I was missing out on so much gold here on TMC. Thanks @Papafox for this info
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