Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today was a slight down day for the NASDAQ but an even bigger down day for some tech stocks, perhaps because of fears about Q4 ERs taking place after close of the market today. Fortunately, the biggest stock being watched, Amazon, had a positive ER and we will likely see the NASDAQ up nicely tomorrow as a result.

Looking at the TSLA trading chart today, we saw what appears to be another early morning head fake by the shorts as pre-market trading descended on light volume. Alas, when the market opened TSLA ran up nicely, was beaten down nearly to the red/green line in an attempted whack-a-mole maneuver, and even ran up to nearly 359 in a moment of exuberance before quickly backing off. The dip that started about 3:20 pm for TSLA looks like it is following the NASDAQ's dip of the same time, but as the NASDAQ made a quick recovery shortly before market close, TSLA continued down (with no bad news noticed) while the market headed up. I would call this action a nicely executed sticky dip on steroids by the shorts. They are weakened considerably this week but they will take advantage of a great opportunity if it is offered.

There is positive news about Tesla today. Home Depot and Tesla are considering giving Tesla solar products a nice display in stores, and Tesla is in talks with Lowes to do the same thing. Cha-ching.

NASDAQ trading Feb1

The shortvolume.com chart shows continued low percentage of trades done by TSLA shorts today: 38%.

Finally, notice the very considerable recovery of TSLA in after-hours trading? I think this recovery is likely anticipation that the NASDAQ will have a good day tomorrow because of the Amazon Q4 results and with the NASDAQ doing well, the opportunity for TSLA doing well is there as well. Could be a good day, stay tuned.

Conditions:
* Dow up 37 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ down 26 (0.35%)
* TSLA 349.44, down 4.87 (1.37%)
* TSLA volume 4.2M shares
* Oil 66.20, up 0.40 (0.61%)

 

[Papafox]

This week's story, and today's story in particular, is one of significantly declining macros. The reason for today's big dip in the DOW and NASDAQ was a jobs report (and wage data) that suggests higher interest rates are coming. Thus, big institutions have been moving money from stocks to bonds in anticipation of better bond yields. For the week, the DOW was down nearly 1100 points and the NASDAQ down about 250 points. The second important story of the week has been the drop in short percentage of trading from the 60%s to the high 30%s (38% today). This is a huge development that has positively affected up macro days and significantly tempered the fall on down macro days (such as today).

Shorts traded only about 38% of TSLA today (blue line, read on right side of chart)

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA came close to exceeding 360 this week but was quickly beaten down. Notice the previous rise to 360.50 and how it slightly exceeded the upper bollinger band and then descended the next day. I think the pertinent observation here is that without significant news to buoy the SP, TSLA is currently reluctant to run above the upper bb and stay there. Fortunately, if the news is good for the 4Q ER, then the stock will have justification for rising about the upper bb and staying their for at least a couple days.

Another interesting point about today's trading is the unusually low volume of 3.7 million shares. Longs are not selling in great numbers with the broader markets in turmoil but are instead hanging onto their shares. This bodes well for TSLA price action after the broader markets stabilize.

In the middle of next week, Tesla releases its 4Q ER. The SP will run up or down, depending upon the information delivered, but I would much rather see it run from the 340s than the 320s or lower, and the big dip in short percentage of trading is making the higher number possible. If we had to choose a week for the broader markets to plunge, we couldn't do much better than this week and a half when the shorts are unable to muster their full force in pushing TSLA downward.

What to expect for next week? Hopefully, the move of money from stocks to bonds will be completed soon so that the broader markets recover sooner rather than later. The news that prompted the selloff today was actually good news for companies that sell automobiles (lots of jobs and better pay) and so TSLA is well positioned for a recovery. After the ER's presentation on Wednesday evening, the results of the 4Q ER and word of Model 3 ramp up in production (likely discussed at the ER) will dominate TSLA's performance for the near future.

Most interestingly, though, are implications of placing Musk's compensation vote on the same day as the 4Q ER. If the 4Q results are disappointing, why on earth would Musk ask that his compensation package be voted for on this day? Further, the shorts are given free rein to aggressively acquire lots of shares for shorting once the compensation package vote has been completed. Why would Musk unleash the shorts to aggressively acquire shares and punish the SP on the day after a poor quarterly ER? For these reasons I am especially hopeful that the ER results will be positive.

For the week, TSLA closed at 343.75, up 90 cents from last week's 342.85. Considering the deep plunges of the broader markets this week, such a performance is phenomenal for the stock with the highest shorting in any market. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow down 666 (2.54%)
* NASDAQ down 145 (1.96%)
* TSLA 343.75, down 5.50 (1.57%)
* TSLA volume 3.7M shares
* Oil 65.45, down 0.35 (0.53%)
* Shorts % of TSLA trading: 38%

 

[GoTslaGo]

Can’t resist... Can’t help noticing the “numerologically” significant Dow loss...

[please don’t banish me to that numerology thread...]

 

[sunhelm]

As usual Papa, appreciate your insights. That 50 ma is about to Golden cross the 200. This happened about the same time last year and SP really took off. This time around, we have some indications of very real progress on the Model 3 ramp, not just speculations nor irrational exuberance like last year. Time to buckle up!

 

[Papafox]

Believe it or not, TSLA's performance today was strong compared to the broader markets and other tech stocks. Compare these performances to TSLA's 3.09% drop:
* Dow down 4.6%
* NASDAQ down 3.8%
* NVIDIA down 8.5%
* AAPL and AMZN, which both had good ERs last week, were down 2.5-2.8%, nonetheless.

The NASDAQ daily chart explains the two deep TSLA dips close to closing this afternoon

Notable was TSLA's low volume of 4.4 million shares during this monster dip by the broader markets. Investors aren't panicking. They're holding, for the most part. Although it is possible for the broad market sell-off to continue into a third day, it is also possible that we can see a robust recovery soon enough. The whole reason for the sell-off was excellent jobs and wage data, which suggests the bull market has plenty of room to run and that there's reason for a strong partial recovery once the storm is over. Be careful about catching falling knives or selling towards the low of a dip, however. Both strategies can bite you. Again, I breathe a sigh of relief because as bad as a 3% fall for TSLA is today, we could be more like NVIDIA's drop if the shorts were at full strength. I'm seeing TSLA dodge a bullet so far. The timing of this macro dip couldn't have been better for us TSLA longs. Imagine if it came shortly after the 4Q ER, right after the Musk compensation vote and a return of short-selling available shares to full strength? Now let's hope for a positive ER Wednesday after market close.

Looking at the technical chart, we've dropped below the nice support levels of 341 and the 200 DMA OF 336.83. I've seen TSLA reclaim 341 quickly when given a chance. Let's hope there's room for recovery tomorrow.

Conditions:
* Dow down 1175 (4.60%)
* NASDAQ down 273 (3.78%)
* TSLA 333.13, down 10.62 (3.09%)
* TSLA volume 4.4M shares
* Oil 63.83, down 2.02 (3.09%)

 

[Papafox]

Looking at the after-market trading, TSLA (like the broader markets) slipped downhill for another half hour beyond market close before more-or-less leveling off. Futures for broad markets have spend some time in the green recently and so Tuesday's trading could go either way.

Meanwhile, short percentage of trading is staying glued to 38% again today (which is a very good thing). I strongly suspect the broader markets will be green again before the TSLA manipulators find themselves at full strength again, but TSLA being in the green of course depends upon what is delivered after hours on Wednesday.

 

[Papafox]

Hurrah, the broader markets have defined a bottom and regained part of their recent losses. The big question is why didn't TSLA share in more of the recovery today? A small part of the reason is that TSLA lost less than most other stocks on the downward run, so it has less to make up, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. An important piece is that TSLA has a reputation for not running uphill as reliably as some other stocks on a big up day for the broader markets, and so traders will often abandon TSLA on such days in favor of stocks that more reliably follow the broader markets, especially if TSLA is showing weakness in the morning hours. Lo and behold, looking at the NASDAQ chart below, you can see a nice run upwards on the way to 10am, but TSLA spiked downward right on opening and took another downward spike after finding the green this morning. Interpretation? The spikes were short-lived and likely the result of manipulations by shorts because of the immediate near-recoveries. Haven't we seen these manipulations subdued lately? Yes indeed, but if you look at the short percentage of trading chart, you'll see that short percentage of trading jumped up from its stable 38% to a higher 44% today, which was necessary to scuttle the dreams of Tesla investors for a robust recovery along with the other stocks.

Much of the day can be characterized as a game of whack-the-mole where shorts sold whatever was necessary when TSLA dared to turn green. The 2 pm dip was unrelated to the macros and may have been related to the Key Bank note about low ramp-up rate of Tesla's Model 3 (but in reality says that Key Bank held an unrealistic understanding of the M3 ramp, even though many of us had a better grasp of the numbers and there's no reason to believe that Elon's most recent 2500 Model 3s a week by end of Q1 isn't going to happen, particularly with most of the quarter still ahead). Nonetheless, that dip kept TSLA from joining the broader markets in their big afternoon climb.

The NASDAQ chart shows the afternoon rally that brought the big gains

Even with all the restrictions on acquiring short shares, TSLA shorts still managed to do 44% of the TSLA trading today. Motivation was strong!

And then with 15 minutes of trading left for the day, Elon Musk launched his Falcon Heavy and not only demonstrated that he is the king of the rocketmen (with formation landings of the outer boosters!) but also his starman circling earth in a Tesla roadster with live feed turned out to be the automotive marketing coup of the millennium. A stunt? Of course, but a very successful one. Take a look at the after-market trading and I think you'll see that TSLA got a boost from Elon's rocket show. TSLA is up nearly $2 since close.

Here are a few photos of the Falcon Heavy and Tesla interplanetary roadster show.

What to expect on Wednesday for pre-ER trading? Traditionally, the day of an earnings report tends to be somewhat negative as investors do some selling to reduce risk going through the ER. On the other hand, TSLA was artificially held back today and after-market trading suggests there's pent-up demand by buyers. Best wishes to all of us tomorrow, before and after the ER.

Conditions:
* Dow up 567 (2.33%)
* NASDAQ up 148 (2.13%)
* TSLA 333.97, up 0.84 (0.25%)
* TSLA volume 5.1M shares
* Oil 63.89, up 0.50 (0.79%)

 

[Papafox]

In pre-ER trading, TSLA was around 341 in the morning, a strong support number and a "happy place" for this stock under the pre-ER conditions: not too high and not too low. It moved up at the close to around 345, another support number.

The ER was a mixed bag of sorts. On the one hand, S and X margins were down and the fix for the Model 3 battery packs will not be installed and operating until March, suggesting a weak 1Q18 and giving the bears ammunition. On the other hand, the fix for the battery packs has already been proven in Germany, suggesting a solid solution will be installed and running within 6 weeks or so. Cash is $3.4 billion and Tesla is being careful with its spending, suggesting no problem with cash available until Model 3 really starts ramping up. Elon and company also alluded to GAAP profitability later this year. Such words give longs encouragement in the long-term prospects for Tesla. The overall result? I think the bears are not going away and when they regain full access to their shares we will see a dip. On the other hand, standing on the sidelines is potentially problematic too because longs see a good 2nd half of 2018 ahead and investors tend to anticipate good things by bidding up the stock price early.

Bottom line is that we may have stormy trading in the short term but once the Model 3 battery module is in and confirmed by high weekly production of Model 3s, up goes the stock price. Don't be surprised by a selling effort by the shorts on Thursday morning. The tough call will be guessing when the transition between the two takes place.

Even without the return to normal of short shares availability for the Musk vote, short percentage of TSLA trading was again up (49%). Positioning for the Q4 ER was a stronger force than shorts could manipulate.

Conditions:
* Dow down 20 (0.08%)
* NASDAQ down 64 (0.89%)
* TSLA 345.00, up 11.03 (3.23%)
* TSLA volume 7.0M shares
* Oil 61.39, down 0.40 (0.65%)

 

[AlMc]

@Papafox : Timing of the big surge in TSLA. If it is dependent on the model 3 production it will have to wait till at least late March as that is when the new equipment for battery module production goes into the GF that was built by Grohmann. Hopefully we get some other kind of good news between then and now or the SP may experience a few weeks of short control over the story.

 

[Papafox]

@Papafox : Timing of the big surge in TSLA. If it is dependent on the model 3 production it will have to wait till at least late March as that is when the new equipment for battery module production goes into the GF that was built by Grohmann. Hopefully we get some other kind of good news between then and now or the SP may experience a few weeks of short control over the story.

I've been pondering this subject. We agree that the shorts will attempt to take full advantage of what they see is weakness (sizable loss this quarter with only modest improvement in Q1), the big question is how successful they will be at it. I believe that for the manipulations of the shorts to be successful in creating large movements of the SP, there needs to be some level of dread in the minds of the longs. The Solar City acquisition is probably the most powerful example, followed by the Model X falcon door and seat issues. Longs may be looking at a weak Q1 with discomfort, but if TSLA has exceeded 2500 M3s/week by the end of March, the Q1 ER might not be bad for the SP because Model 3 ramp is the most important item in the minds of investors and 2500 Model 3s a week and growing paints a rosy picture for the remainder of 2018. Further, the fix is now known: replacing the current machines at GF1 with those that have been testing in Germany and are on the way. There should be little dread that a suitable fix is inbound prior to the end of Q1. Also, with the excellent prospects for the 2nd half of 2018, there will be buyers looking for attractive entry points to TSLA. So, with an apparently solid fix to the battery module issue on the way and with buyers ready to pick up TSLA when it goes on sale, I think the dip may be shallower than many expect. Nonetheless, when the shorts recover full ability to acquire shares, I think they're going to build upon any tsla-specific dips or macro-dips that they can find or fabricate. It's going to be an interesting month ahead.

 

[Papafox]

Option sniper remains bullish on TSLA and is waiting for any weakness this week to pick up calls next week:

 

[Papafox]

Today we discovered what you get when you combine a mega-drop on the broader markets with a troublesome earnings report: a TSLA drop of over 8%. You had a combination of buyers not trying to catch falling knives (because of the macro situation) combined with shorts manipulating and selling into new positions, combined with some longs getting out to play the dip. Uggglllyy. Let's hope that the macros settle down soon. Restrictions on shares available to shorts were supposed to begin being removed after Feb 7, so it will be very interesting to see if short percentage of trading rises higher tomorrow. In the meantime, with the dip of the NASDAQ going into close, tomorrow could start in a stormy fashion as well.

The good news is that the prime reason for dissatisfaction with the earnings report, a delay in fixing the GF1 Model 3 battery module production lines, is likely going to be fixed in March (the new line is already working well in Germany), which is next month. At some point, buyers will return and reestablish their positions and thereby bid TSLA back up because the year 2018 still looks very good for this stock. Until then, much depends upon the macros.

Much has been made about delays for those seeking a Model 3 with standard sized battery. To me this suggests that TSLA doesn't want to mess with another size of battery module until the long-range battery Model 3s are at high production, and they would rather increase the margins on Model 3s by adding dual motor versions of the vehicle than reduce margins soon by building the least expensive Model 3s. For us investors, this is good news because with these margins and production of over 5,000 Model 3s/week, Tesla does indeed stand a good chance of being GAAP profitable later this year.

As for the macro correction, please remember that the economy is percolating quite well right now and the bull market should continue for quite some time. Corrections are painful, but not as painful as true bear markets. Between Tesla's prospects once the battery module equipment is installed in March and the likelihood of a bull market resuming this year, TSLA should recover just fine. Keep those seat belts fastened in the short term, though, until we break out of the clouds.

Shorts % of TSLA trading remained around 48% today

Conditions:
* Dow down 1033 (4.15%)
* NASDAQ down 275 (3.9%)
* TSLA 315.23, down 29.77 (8.63%)
* TSLA volume 10.3M shares
* Oil 60.53, down 0.62 (1.01%)

 

[avoigt]

For those having second thoughts what is happening:

• Stock hit a long term upwards trend and support yesterday that has been tested 4 times since March 2017
• 61% Fibo Retracement broke
• Volume high
• RSI near oversold territory
• If support breaks we may see 305 or even 290s (100% retrace) but that should be it
• Upside opportunity 330 up to 360 mid term likely

We may see a similar pattern as in last quarters. Consolidation after hefty down move triggered by er and up move to previous levels in 2-3 weeks.

Upside opportunity higher than downside risk. Make your bets....

 

[Papafox]

Just did some buying around the 297.50 price. As much as this dip hurts, it hurts far less with some buying towards the bottom, because you know you'll be better off once the SP returns to normal levels. March (and the M3 battery fix) is next month.

 

[Papafox]

This afternoon, TSLA's ugly week turned less ugly as the broader markets rallied and TSLA followed, but underperforming quite a bit, due in large part to the likely effect of short-sellers, who traded more than 50% of TSLA shares today. To a lesser extent, residual concerns over the 4Q ER also contributed to the disparity.

Consider how the shorts manipulated TSLA today. In pre-market trading, TSLA was up, but despite the broader indexes opening up, TSLA immediately performed a mandatory morning dip (thanks to our local neighborhood shorts). Looking at the NASDAQ chart below, you can see a strong connection between TSLA and the NASDAQ, but with recoveries from dips often muted and descents often over-exaggerated for TSLA. Note that the NASDAQ didn't dip into the red until about 11:40am today, but at that time TSLA was already at least $10 down.

* Look at TSLA's near breaking into the green at 3:25pm. A sale of 60,000 shares within one minute was needed to thwart the breakout. This type of selling is absurd for a long to be doing and so it has the fingerprints of the shorts all over it. Unfortunately for us longs, it was very effective.

* Look too at the end of the day trading. TSLA bucked the trend of the NASDAQ in the final 20 minutes and held most of its value, but in the final 2 minutes of trading, TSLA dropped from 311.78 at 3:58pm to 310.42 at 4:00pm. That's nearly 1 1/2 points of drop in 2 minutes. It is these small slight-of-hand maneuvers, added together, that allows the shorts to depress TSLA's performance on a day such as today.

With more than half the trading today done by shorts and with volume of nearly 13 million shares, the shorts are back. They could influence the performance of TSLA today, but the pull of the broader markets is far more influential a factor. The manipulations of the shorts can only produce significant long-term results if dread within the ranks of longs is present. The severity of the macro dips provided that dread temporarily for some longs, but once the broader markets settle down again, the dread will disappear and bargain hunters will continue buying shares of TSLA at these sale prices.

The NASDAQ chart shows the index dipped into the red about 11:40am and regained the green about 2:00pm.

For the first time since the recall of short shares for the Musk compensation vote, shorts traded over 50% of TSLA today, indicating that shares to short continue to be made more available. Responsible brokerages such as Fidelity have likely limited the number of shares available to short these past couple of days in order to avoid adding undo volatility to the market.

Please spend some time pondering the opportunities this dip offers if you have some dry powder available. Tesla just published an 8K amendment to the call, which says that Tesla can reach 2500 M3s/week with current battery module solutions and that the new line from Germany will only add to the total. This is huge.

For the week, TSLA closed at 310.42, down 33.33 from last Friday's 343.75. Glad to be done with this week! Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 330 (1.38%)
* NASDAQ up 97 (1.44%)
* TSLA 310.42, down 4.81 (1.53%)
* TSLA volume 12.9M shares
* Oil 59.20, down 1.95 (3.19%)

 

[bdy0627]

The difficulty now lies in factoring in the overall market correction despite the bargain prices for the stock. I would love to add here but I would also like to shift more to cash because of the overall market instability. We may have bottomed today or not. If not, TSLA likely hasn't bottomed either, especially with more shorts joining the fun each day as the shares available to short increase. I believe that adding in the $290s is still an excellent risk/reward price point, even if the stock drops into the $280s or $270s in the days to come. I'm not inclined to add any more right where we are now though. What a day! I'm also very glad to be done with this week. I hope we aren't saying that again soon!

 

[Papafox]

The difficulty now lies in factoring in the overall market correction despite the bargain prices for the stock. I would love to add here but I would also like to shift more to cash because of the overall market instability. We may have bottomed today or not. If not, TSLA likely hasn't bottomed either, especially with more shorts joining the fun each day as the shares available to short increase. I believe that adding in the $290s is still an excellent risk/reward price point, even if the stock drops into the $280s or $270s in the days to come. I'm not inclined to add any more right where we are now though. What a day! I'm also very glad to be done with this week. I hope we aren't saying that again soon!

You make a good point that none of us can accurately predict the macros. As a general observation, this is a correction in an otherwise thriving economy, which suggests a briefer downward correction versus a true bear market, but markets are complex and I am not a fortune teller. With Elon's correction on the Model 3's ability to hit 2500/week in March even without the German line being in place, TSLA should be demonstrating higher Model 3 production a few weeks from now, and that should be a positive catalyst on the SP.

 

[Papafox]

Here's my clever money-making strategy with TSLA: buy low, sell high. I'm quite good on the former and trying to improve on the latter. By selling high what I usually mean is selling leaps and rolling the money into shares when the SP is high. Buying low often means selling shares and buying a greater exposure in ITM leaps.

I feel good about the 2 J19 leaps I bought at 297.50. Is it possible for the macro correction to kick in again and we see further declines? Absolutely. Might those macro declines be accentuated by short-selling as more shares come available to the shorts? Absolutely, again. If we somehow manage to hit the low 290s or high 280s I'll be buying more leaps. If we go even lower I'll be buying a third time. The thing is that I don't think I will regret buying those leaps at 297.50 a few months from now, even if I get more at an even lower price.

Part of buying low is buying while there is still a certain level of concern in the minds of investors. It can be scary some times. Make a rational decision of when to sell and when to buy because your emotions will typically lead to the reverse of buy low and sell high.

Here's why I am bullish for 2018. The economy is strong, Tesla will substantially increase Model 3 battery module production within the next two months (Elon says 2500/week at end of Q1 even without the German line arriving and then another 2000-2500/week from that new German line alone). It's only a question of when the ramp up happens and I just don't see TSLA anywhere near the current price come January of 2019. So, ask yourself what range of stock prices do you envision after Tesla ramps to over 5,000 Model 3s/week. In my case, I see 297.50 being a great price to buy at given my strong expectations of greater than 400 for the stock price even before we reach 5,000/week, and so buying at a local low at such a low price point makes sense to me.

My theory is that there are lots of other longs out there who anticipate TSLA running above 400 this year. At some point as the SP decreases, buying becomes just too attractive and the stock bottoms out. I believe that below 300 is such a point and I'm willing to put my money where my mouth is.

 

[Papafox]

Today was a hugely important day in the battle between longs and shorts for control of TSLA's stock price. The odds were stacked against the shorts with NASDAQ futures way up, European trading of TSLA up, and good news released after close of trading on Friday (8K). In premarket trading, TSLA reached as high as 319 but then settled a bit.

Of course the shorts could not allow their huge drops of Thursday and Friday to get reversed, and so they stared the day with a mandatory morning dip that wiped out all the pre-market gains. Typical. Next, TSLA started rising and so a game of "whack the mole" took place all morning long until noon, when TSLA finally took the green and kept it. Notice from the NASDAQ chart below that the NASDAQ bottomed out around 10:20am and then started climbing. Through lots of selling, shorts delayed the beginning of TSLA's climb by an hour and forty minutes, but the inevitable happened as the NASDAQ continued its steady rise, and TSLA broke free to rise as well. Looking at the morning dip and the whack-the-mole game all morning long, I suspect shorts expended lots of resources today, with negative results. Without such efforts, I have no doubt that TSLA would have climbed substantially higher today.

Here's why today's trading is so important. Shorts are struggling to continue the downtrend of Thursday and Friday. What they lack, though, is a dread in the minds of longs. If the macro correction rekindles, then a dread can develop, but lacking such a development, TSLA longs will not be selling in masse because the likely performance of this stock in the second half of the year makes selling now an irrational action. Here are some of the negatives of TSLA rising over the next few days:
* Some shorts will recognize that we're at an attractive exit point and the price trend is against them. They will cover and their covering will aid the recovery of TSLA's SP.
* When the SP is rising such as today, the shorts who manipulate lose money. They can only sustain so many losing days before they're out of ammo or tired of losing money
* When longs become confident that the macro correction is over, more buying will occur because the current SP is attractive, given the potential for this stock in the second half of 2018
* As the three actions above take place, the SP rises, which encourages more buying from the three activities mentioned above

One source indicated that zero shares were available at Fidelity to short today. Such a situation suggests that Fidelity is being careful in how quickly it makes additional shares to short available, because it doesn't want to add excess volatility to this stock at the moment. As more shares to short are made available, the shorts gain power, but as the stock rises the downtrend is broken and replaced with an uptrend. Let's hope the uptrend continues long enough for the additional shares to short to be left mostly untouched by potential shorts.

The next big test is when shorts have full access to shares, we see a failure of the shorts to control the SP of TSLA, as we did today with somewhat reduced shares available for shorts.

The NASDAQ bottomed out around 10:20am today and then began a long climb

Looking at the technical chart, notice how far below the lower bollinger band TSLA fell on Friday before recovering. Notice, too, that today's closing price was just about right on the lower bb. I'm thinking the lower bb has many characteristics in common with the upper bb when the SP remains outside for more than two days.

We're still in a region of excellent prices for TSLA vs. where it is likely to go later this year, but we can't assume we're out of the woods yet as far as a rekindling of macro instability. Balance the pros and cons and trade accordingly.

Conditions:
* Dow up 410 (1.70%)
* NASDAQ up 107 (1.56%)
* TSLA 315.73, up 5.31 (%)
* TSLA volume 6.2M shares
* Oil 59.35, up 0.15 (0.25%)

 

[sunhelm]

Someone posted a link on reddit to a Montana Skeptic article over at SA. I call this another version of the MMD - a Montana Media Declaration urging his faithful to short TSLA because he believes the longs have broken ranks. I may be giving him undue credit but the timing of the article kinda coincided with the second bottoming of TSLA for the day - 10:45 am!