Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today was a positive day for TSLA for reasons other than the SP running up nearly $8:
* With the broader markets down at open, TSLA bucked the trend and mostly stayed green
* Between Fidelity and IB, TSLA had nearly 100,000 shares available for shorting today, but TSLA run upwards all the same, easily devouring a weak mandatory morning dip and never looking back.
* China's largest brokerage, Critic Securities, began covering TSLA with a buy rating and 425 price target

The combination of jitters about the 4Q ER (especially the incorrect interpretation of how Tesla would reach 2500 M3 modules/week by end of March) and some big dips in the broader markets brought TSLA lower than makes any sense for its current situation. For this reason, I think the shorts are less active because they know the various manipulations are likely to fail (and cost the short-seller money) while the SP is rising. At some point we'll reach a relative equilibrium of value vs. SP, but for now the trend is upward. The shorts will return when they think they can make money with manipulations, but for now they are licking their wounds after TSLA has bounced back from the Montana Skeptic low.

Conditions:
* Dow up 39 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ up 32 (0.45%)
* TSLA 323.66, up 7.93 (2.51%)
* TSLA volume 4.5M shares
* Oil 59.20, down 0.09 (0.15%)

 

[Reciprocity]

View attachment 280194
Today was a positive day for TSLA for reasons other than the SP running up nearly $8:
* With the broader markets down at open, TSLA bucked the trend and mostly stayed green
* Between Fidelity and IB, TSLA had nearly 100,000 shares available for shorting today, but TSLA run upwards all the same, easily devouring a weak mandatory morning dip and never looking back.
* China's largest brokerage, Critic Securities, began covering TSLA with a buy rating and 425 price target

The combination of jitters about the 4Q ER (especially the incorrect interpretation of how Tesla would reach 2500 M3 modules/week by end of March) and some big dips in the broader markets brought TSLA lower than makes any sense for its current situation. For this reason, I think the shorts are less active because they know the various manipulations are likely to fail (and cost the short-seller money) while the SP is rising. At some point we'll reach a relative equilibrium of value vs. SP, but for now the trend is upward. The shorts will return when they think they can make money with manipulations, but for now they are licking their wounds after TSLA has bounced back from the Montana Skeptic low.

Conditions:
* Dow up 39 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ up 32 (0.45%)
* TSLA 323.66, up 7.93 (2.51%)
* TSLA volume 4.5M shares
* Oil 59.20, down 0.09 (0.15%)

AH up another 2.1 so far.

 

[Papafox]

AH up another 2.1 so far.

Mercy! If that after-hours trading was water below my boat I'd be seasick. Sheesh! The good news is that enough buyers want to pick up TSLA after hours that they're bidding the price up, which is a good omen for tomorrow.

 

[Papafox]

The shorts returned with a vengeance today, determined to keep TSLA from running way up with the broader indexes. Their strategy consisted of:
* A mandatory morning dip that began pre-market
* A game of whack-the-mole that took TSLA nearly to 1pm, at which time it had lost a tremendous amount of appreciation compared to the NASDAQ
* Capping in the green to push TSLA down to 325 and hold it there
* A dip into close that partially fell apart

Not convinced? Look at the NASDAQ steady climb on a day with no significant TSLA news. The shorts were looking for a reversal of the NASDAQ that they could then use as a dip on steroids to sink TSLA further. By 3:00pm they decided to make a move downward without the assistance of a NASDAQ dip, which yielded a dip that fell apart but was only saved by another dip in the final 15 minutes.

On Monday and Tuesday, TSLA was heading up regardless of what the shorts did, and enough shorts figured this out and reduced their exposure. Today was the day they really hoped to turn TSLA onto a downward track, but the best they could do was an ever so slight decline. Notice the increased shorting percentage today in the graph above. The good news for longs is that the manipulative shorts made very little money today. I suspect a good percentage of the 133,000 shares purchased at 4:00pm were shorts covering after today's manipulations. Those who capped at 325 made money, those who sold pre-market to start the MMD did not.

These games can continue as long as there's no significant positive TSLA news. When word of increasing M3 production numbers comes out, though, the shorts are not going to be able to prevent TSLA from readjusting to a more rational price point.

I look at the efforts of the shorts today as something that will only really pay off if there is trouble with the macros and TSLA follows them down. There is no sufficient dread in the longs to generate a big decline without macro problems. If the macros behave, then the manipulations of the shorts are merely extending the sale of TSLA shares a bit longer for longs to take advantage of.

Conditions:
* Dow up 243 (1.03%)
* NASDAQ up 130 (1.86%)
* TSLA 322.31, down 1.35 (0.42%)
* TSLA volume 4.0M shares
* Oil 61.26, up 0.66 (1.08%)

 

[Papafox]

In many ways, today was the answer to yesterday's moves. Yesterday, short-sellers carefully conducted a manipulation designed to prevent TSLA from rising on a big up day for the macros. It really was well executed. Unfortunately for the shorts, there was no strong dread in the minds longs to allow a large drop in SP, and the shorts could do much more than extend the sale of TSLA for a short while. Low volumes recently suggest that longs aren't particularly interested in selling. Today (another big up day for the macros), the most likely explanation for the strong and steady rise of TSLA was that an institutional buyer decided to start accumulating. Despite shorts trading 46% of today's shares, there was nothing they could do to stop the march upward. All the little maneuvers done by shorts lately to deflate TSLA's SP got neutralized in a single big day of buying. This is not an unusual pattern and it is the reason you want to be a long, and not a short when this company is moving forward. Perhaps the buyer was a big organization that was invited by Musk to tour the gigafactory. Time may tell.

The strength of the after-market trading suggests that more rise may be in store for TSLA tomorrow.

I was expecting a dip in percentage of short trading today, similar to what you saw on Feb 13 when TSLA started marching upward. There's really no stopping TSLA when a big organization is accumulating and little incentive to try. Perhaps some of the 46% of trading by shorts was covering today. Hoping we hear from one of the gurus on TSLA shorting soon.

Looking at the technical chart, notice how quickly TSLA has bounced back from its double-wammy dip (macros and Q4 ER concerns). It has now recovered nearly $40 of the $50 it lost right after the ER. Also, notice that TSLA closed above the 50 DMA and is close to topping the 200 DMA again. If it rises above these two potential support points and we see a crossing of the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA, technical traders will take notice and likely jump in. Also, notice how high the upper bb is. If demand allows, the upper bb will not be a detriment to climbs for a good long while.

Conditions:
* Dow up 307 (1.23%)
* NASDAQ up 113 (1.58%)
* TSLA 334.07, up 11.76 (3.65%)
* TSLA volume 5.9M shares
* Oil 61.44, up 0.10 (0.16%)

 

[Reciprocity]

View attachment 280663
In many ways, today was the answer to yesterday's moves. Yesterday, short-sellers carefully conducted a manipulation designed to prevent TSLA from rising on a big up day for the macros. It really was well executed. Unfortunately for the shorts, there was no strong dread in the minds longs to allow a large drop in SP, and the shorts could do much more than extend the sale of TSLA for a short while. Low volumes recently suggest that longs aren't particularly interested in selling. Today (another big up day for the macros), the most likely explanation for the strong and steady rise of TSLA was that an institutional buyer decided to start accumulating. Despite shorts trading 46% of today's shares, there was nothing they could do to stop the march upward. All the little maneuvers done by shorts lately to deflate TSLA's SP got neutralized in a single big day of buying. This is not an unusual pattern and it is the reason you want to be a long, and not a short when this company is moving forward. Perhaps the buyer was a big organization that was invited by Musk to tour the gigafactory. Time may tell.

The strength of the after-market trading suggests that more rise may be in store for TSLA tomorrow.

View attachment 280665
I was expecting a dip in percentage of short trading today, similar to what you saw on Feb 13 when TSLA started marching upward. There's really no stopping TSLA when a big organization is accumulating and little incentive to try. Perhaps some of the 46% of trading by shorts was covering today. Hoping we hear from one of the gurus on TSLA shorting soon.

View attachment 280664
Looking at the technical chart, notice how quickly TSLA has bounced back from its double-wammy dip (macros and Q4 ER concerns). It has now recovered nearly $40 of the $50 it lost right after the ER. Also, notice that TSLA closed above the 50 DMA and is close to topping the 200 DMA again. If it rises above these two potential support points and we see a crossing of the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA, technical traders will take notice and likely jump in. Also, notice how high the upper bb is. If demand allows, the upper bb will not be a detriment to climbs for a good long while.

Conditions:
* Dow up 307 (1.23%)
* NASDAQ up 113 (1.58%)
* TSLA 334.07, up 11.76 (3.65%)
* TSLA volume 5.9M shares
* Oil 61.44, up 0.10 (0.16%)

Admit it, your job was to easy today. Wish every day was like today.

 

[Mike Smith]

View attachment 280663
Also, notice that TSLA closed above the 50 DMA and is close to topping the 200 DMA again. If it rises above these two potential support points and we see a crossing of the 50 DMA above the 200 DMA, technical traders will take notice and likely jump in.

This is the first time the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages have been perfectly aligned for a breakout since the Spiegel bottom. First the 50 crosses the 100 (happened yesterday), then the 50 crosses the 200 (will happen within a week if all goes well), then the 100 crosses the 200. Then they all rise together in perfect joyous harmony. This is what happened at the Spiegel bottom, and the setup is exactly the same now.

 

[Papafox]

Whomever was accumulating TSLA yesterday resumed the accumulation this morning and the SP reached nearly 343 mid-day. The broader markets began to descend about 12:30pm and the acquiring entity decided to cool the buying and allow the SP to descend with the market. Nonetheless, TSLA closed up for the day when most other tech stocks were down and it would be quite a coincidence that the big buyer of TSLA reached the desired level of shares at exactly the same time the broader markets peaked. One would assume that the buyer will resume acquiring shares next week. If that happens and the technical events that Mike Smith addresses in the prior post take place, technical traders will be fired up to bid TSLA higher.

The NASDAQ peaked around 12:30pm and is the reason for the descent of TSLA in the afternoon

For the week, TSLA closed at 335.49, up 25.07 from last Friday's 310.42. It's been a great week, my friends. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 19 (0.08%)
* NASDAQ down 17 (0.23%)
* TSLA 335.49, up 1.42 (0.43%)
* TSLA volume 5.5M shares
* Oil 61.51, up 0.34 (0.56%)

 

[sunhelm]

Looks like battle lines are drawn at the 200 sma price point at 337.50. Significant volumes occurred at 2:20 pm, fight to push up or above this line was ongoing for about an hour and as we know finally acquiesced below that. I suspect shorts will continue to make sure this barrier does not get crossed but I guess we'll see. Hope we hear more good news over the three day weekend to help us longs catapult TSLA over this wall.

 

[bdy0627]

View attachment 280903
Whomever was accumulating TSLA yesterday resumed the accumulation this morning and the SP reached nearly 343 mid-day. The broader markets began to descend about 12:30pm and the acquiring entity decided to cool the buying and allow the SP to descend with the market. Nonetheless, TSLA closed up for the day when most other tech stocks were down and it would be quite a coincidence that the big buyer of TSLA reached the desired level of shares at exactly the same time the broader markets peaked. One would assume that the buyer will resume acquiring shares next week. If that happens and the technical events that Mike Smith addresses in the prior post take place, technical traders will be fired up to bid TSLA higher.

View attachment 280906
The NASDAQ peaked around 12:30pm and is the reason for the descent of TSLA in the afternoon

For the week, TSLA closed at 335.49, up 25.07 from last Friday's 310.42. It's been a great week, my friends. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 19 (0.08%)
* NASDAQ down 17 (0.23%)
* TSLA 335.49, up 1.42 (0.43%)
* TSLA volume 5.5M shares
* Oil 61.51, up 0.34 (0.56%)

Are there any tell-tale signs in distinguishing between institutional accumulation vs large hedge funds shorting the stock on the way down, then loading up for a rise? I'm guessing it would look pretty much the same. As manipulated as TSLA is, I'm just wondering about hedge funds going heavily long and nudging the stock in the direction they want it to go, and then doing the same in reverse, shorting the stock and nudging it down when they want to make money in the opposite direction. Any thoughts on that? That kind of entity would want maximum effect on the stock movement rather than trying to avoid overly influencing the stock movement.

 

[Papafox]

Today's percentage of TSLA trading done by shorts was particularly low: 39% I can understand manipulative shorts and shorts desiring to increase their exposure to TSLA sitting on the sidelines this morning as the steady accumulation of stock continued. Once the macros started declining in the afternoon, I suspect the shorting picked up a bit.

 

[Papafox]

Today the DOW had a bad day, losing 1% of its value while the NASDAQ closed close to even. TSLA followed the NASDAQ generally but had some important differences. Unlike the NASDAQ, TSLA experienced a mandatory morning dip which was quickly shrugged off by the market. Unlike the NASDAQ which stayed high through about 2pm (see below), TSLA peaked before noon and began a slow, almost methodical descent throughout the afternoon. When the NASDAQ took a 3pm dip, TSLA did too, but in exaggerated fashion, including one minute of over 60,000 shares traded at 3:07pm. Can you say "dip on steroids"? Fortunately, TSLA recovered with nearly the same level of enthusiasm and almost closed green for the day. Short percentage of trading was 43% today, which suggests enough strength to account for some of the perceived discontinuities with the NASDAQ throughout the day.

Notice the slow decline of TSLA between noon and 2pm, a time when the NASDAQ was relatively level. Such a slow walking down of the SP could be accomplished on a low volume day such as today by manipulative shorts who manufacture such a slow decline and manage to cover at the end of the day at a lower price than they sold-into TSLA. Such days can be profitable for manipulative shorts.

Despite the DOW's poor showing, the NASDAQ today (shown above) closed close to even.

43% of TSLA trading is relatively low for TSLA shorts but is higher than Friday


Conditions:
* Dow down 255 (1.01%)
* NASDAQ down 5 (0.07%)
* TSLA 334.77, down 0.72 (0.21%)
* TSLA volume 4.0M shares
* Oil 61.04, down 0.75 (1.21%)

 

[Papafox]

Today was an exceptionally low volume day in which the broader markets and TSLA lost ground and entered the red in late afternoon after the market digested word about today's fed meeting. For TSLA, the day soon devolved into a mandatory morning dip that led to a sharp climb, just as with yesterday. Unlike yesterday, though, longs bid TSLA back up in three waves throughout the day (showing greater strength). Similar to yesterday was the "walking down" of the stock price from each high (likely by our friendly neighborhood shorts).

Ihor Dusaniwsky tweeted today that short interest is up about 500,000 shares in February to nearly 31 million shares. Despite the increase in short interest, the shorts show difficulty manipulating TSLA with any strength in recent days, and their efforts are small enough that they can be unwound in a single positive session. I'm looking forward to the Model 3 ramp-up, because we will have a high number of shorts seeking to cover for quite a nice period of time. Don't miss it.

Comparing TSLA's daily chart to that of the NASDAQ above, you can see the MMD is unique to TSLA and has nothing to do with the broader market. The late afternoon fall, on the other hand, was primarily in response to the NASDAQ drop.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see the blue 50DMA getting very close to the 200DMA now, and when the golden cross occurs this will be a bullish event for TSLA. The main threat to TSLA at this point remains macros.

The particularly low volume today suggests that longs are in "wait for the Model 3 ramp" mode and shorts are lacking the horsepower to budge the stock much. We're drifting with the macros at present until word comes that Model 3 is indeed ramping substantially.

Conditions:
* Dow down 167 (0.67%)
* NASDAQ down 16 (0.22%)
* TSLA 333.30, down 1.47 (0.44%)
* TSLA volume 3.2M shares
* Oil 61.30, down 0.49 (0.79%)

 

[Papafox]

Today's strength and volume was a surprise after yesterday's sleeper performance. Most likely, positive news excited investors and they started moving back into TSLA. Candidates for the good news include:
* Tesla opening up Model 3 orders to non-owners
* Tesla Model S for the first time outselling the top European luxury sedans for the first time in Europe
* Word from a frequent poster (and presumed accurate source) on Electrec.co that Panasonic expanding cell operations rapidly at Tesla GF
Whatever the case may be, buyers showed up and volume of 7 million shares tells the story. The difficulty in anticipating the effect of positive news is that sometimes news that really excites us Teslaholics (such as recent 8-K clarification that says Tesla can reach 2500 Model 3 battery modules/week in Q1 even without the new German line) doesn't end up moving the stock price.

Notice that the attempted mandatory morning dip didn't even reach the red before the stock took off today.

The NASDAQ was really the worst kind of pattern for TSLA today (a high open and a steady descent in the afternoon). Typically, shorts can accentuate the afternoon NASDAQ decline and turn the dip into a TSLA dip on steroids. Clearly, TSLA's strength today was not related to macros.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA is now comfortably above the 50DMA and 200DMA and the two are proceeding towards a golden cross, which will bring in technical traders when it happens. The upper bollinger band resides just below 360, and so this number should be considered a likely resistance point (which will move upward somewhat) until stronger good news comes forth.

Congratulations to all longs on a splendid day.

Conditions:
* Dow up 165 (0.66%)
* NASDAQ down 8 (0.11%)
* TSLA 346.17, up 12.87 (3.86%)
* TSLA volume 7.0M shares
* Oil 62.77 up 1.09 (1.77%)

 

[Mike Smith]

This was a very important day technically. Momentum traders are always watching Tesla, waiting for a setup like this. They should be watching very closely now, getting ready. If in fact this is a major breakout we already have a double top at 390, so it shouldn't stop there - it should go well into the 400s, probably nearer 500 if the Model 3 ramps as expected. My heart goes out to Trend Trader if this is really happening right after he got liquidated - the market does seem to love acting with maximum cruelty..

 

[Mich]

This was a very important day technically. Momentum traders are always watching Tesla, waiting for a setup like this. They should be watching very closely now, getting ready. If in fact this is a major breakout we already have a double top at 390, so it shouldn't stop there - it should go well into the 400s, probably nearer 500 if the Model 3 ramps as expected. My heart goes out to Trend Trader if this is really happening right after he got liquidated - the market does seem to love acting with maximum cruelty..

TT008?

 

[Papafox]

Today we had several influences at work on TSLA:
* A NASDAQ with a mostly-steady increase that picked up steam in the afternoon (Positive DOW too)
* Positive momentum from yesterday's gain of nearly $13
* Options expiration date today

Looking at the trading, TSLA's momentary blip-dip right after opening was defeated in two wink's of a bull's eye and TSLA quickly shot to above 352.50. Throughout the morning, TSLA didn't progress much beyond that 352.50 vicinity, suggesting that someone who sold lots of 252.50 calls that expire today was working hard to keep the SP below that level. In the afternoon, any capping efforts were defeated for a while as TSLA came within a penny of 355, but then the stock price faded in the final hour to close under 352.50 even though the NASDAQ showed no dip in the final hour. I'll pin TSLA's late afternoon dip on some large call seller rather than the shorts this time.

The NASDAQ had a strong and steady climb that accelerated in the afternoon... just what the shorts DON'T like

After confirming this week that TSLA short interest had climbed to 30.7 million shares, Ihor Dusaniwsky confirmed today that TSLA shorts have given back virtually all of their February profits and are down over $1.3 billion this year so far. The combination of high short interest compounded by huge losses this year is important because it suggests that a run to a new ATH by TSLA would be hugely painful to shorts and likely would result in a fair amount of covering (which would accelerate the climb).

Meanwhile, Option Sniper thinks that if TSLA breaks out above 361, it will go to 366 and then 372.

Looking at the technical chart, you can see that blue 50DMA getting really close now to the red 200DMA line. The combination of a golden cross and a breakout could indeed bring in the momentum trade buyers.

Taking a long look at the tech chart, you can see that TSLA approached 390 in June and September of 2017. In both cases, the climbs were propelled by expectations related to Model 3. Since then, TSLA has seen several peaks since the early November lows: 326.xx, 347.xx, and 360.xx. Expectations are that the next sub-peak will be greater than 360.

So, does TSLA rise to a 360ish peak and then descend, or does it climb to a new ATH soon? I think the answer depends upon whether the shorts are ready to start jumping ship and the answer to that question depends upon evidence of a substantial increase in Model 3 production. So far, I don't see compelling evidence of Model 3 substantial production ramping, and so I'm more likely to believe we'll see another sub-peak rather than a run to a new ATH. Hoping I am wrong. In the meantime, keep watching for proof of a substantial Model 3 ramp-up because when news comes, TSLA will head to the asteroid belt and beyond. I'm likely going to hold my shares and options and ride out the turbulence until that moment comes because the upside is substantial and the downside is likely only a momentary dip until substantial news comes forth. Since the market has a tendency to anticipate good news, all that I say here might be overridden by expectations that TSLA is getting close to that big Model 3 production ramp-up. What could also change the equation is continued shares accumulation by a big buyer who appears to still be picking up TSLA.

For the week, TSLA closed at 352.05, up 16.56 from last Friday's 335.49. Add these gains to last week's gains and you have TSLA up 41.63 in two weeks. Not bad ; ) . Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 348 (1.39%)
* NASDAQ up 127 (1.77%)
* TSLA 352.05, up 5.88 (1.70%)
* TSLA volume 5.8M shares
* Oil 63.57, up 0.80 (1.27%)

 

[Fifield]

Careful with $BA and $TSLA pps, both in the $350's...confusing tweet from Option Sniper.

 

[ggr]

I'll pin TSLA's late afternoon dip on some large call seller rather than the shorts this time.

A large call seller is a short. Or at least they're hedging.

 

[Papafox]

Careful with $BA and $TSLA pps, both in the $350's...confusing tweet from Option Sniper.

To me, Option Sniper's tweet regarding TSLA was pretty straightforward. If TSLA rises above 361, it should continue rising soon enough to 366 then up to resistance at 372, but all of this might have to wait until next week. I think he chose 361 because it is the highest peak since TSLA started its recovery from 292 in early November and above 361 would signal a breakout to technical traders.