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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by KarenRei, Jan 1, 2019.
Well, it's 2019 now. Where's the stock going this year? Place your bets in the poll!
If I win, do I get to choose whom to replace Lord Vetinari as Lord High Moderator?
Seeing as this is also a thread, I'm going with 694.20.
(I mean, I could actually see it going up there, between European and Chinese deliveries, potential GF1 expansion, pickup unveiling, Model Y unveiling, GF3, Energy expansion... but I had to pick the joke answer.)
I wouldn't be surprised if the stock price gravitates towards $420. I also wouldn't be surprised by $840, or $210, or anything in between.
Of course every year the consensus on this board is that a breakout is imminent, and based on the votes so far this year is no different. But I feel much more confident in my forecast of the SP in 10 years than in 1 year.
In any case: somebody has to guess 420, and it might as well be me.
I also stuck with the $420 theory. To be honest I personally don’t see it being sustainably higher than that unless great progress has been made on the autonomy front. Due to global headwinds I believe 2019 is going to be a tough year for most stocks.
Somewhere between 250-390 for the next ten years imo
I think we'll top 400 in 2019, but pull back to 346.36 at the end of the year on macro down trends.
The absurd potential of the energy side will be clearly evident by spring 2020, that's when we really take off IMO.
I am going with $725 to close 2019
I will also bet a SP ATH for 2019 at $850
These numbers were calculated using the S.W.A.G.* method.
*Scientific Wild Ass Guess
If someone can tell me where NASDAQ will close, I can tell you where TSLA will close
As Tesla grows its business by 50% each year, it should double SP each year.
For Dec.31 2019, I voted the range:
However, I do expect TSLA to reach much higher during the year: ATH around $600 would be my guess, due to a bit of short squeezing. Once the 'good old' shorts are covered, it should drop back down (thanks to some new shorts and profit taking).
If relying on Model 3 only for profit, range will be between $350-$400. If successful Model Y mass production by end of 2019, range will be between $450-$500.
I’m predicting Tesla’s market cap is over $100 billion by the end of the year as the market wakes up to Tesla’s potential. So I’m going with the $581-670 range.
Year-end price $591
Well I think it depends on if the Shortsville Times Chief Editor comes out of retirement.
If he stays retired (most likely) then a close of 450 with an ATH of 520.
If my particle entanglement experiments work out, I will be more exact in my prediction.
Liquid helium is just too damn expensive.
My reasoning for voting 511-580:
I think the Q4 ER should take us to ATH and any positives on first EU deliveries, or analyst upgrades after that may even have us test 400 for the first time.
Factors for going above 500 later in the year:
Subsequent growing Model 3 deliveries and consistent profit
Model Y reveal and preorder number
"One more thing" at Model Y event may be a Pick-up prototype
GF3 and Semi staying on schedule and starting production in Q4
Energy continuing growth and coming on the radar of analysts (remember most estimates value it at zero!)
HW3 and early real FSD demos making Tesla's advantage in the field clear
Model S/X refresh
Trump resigns (sorry, don't mean to get political here, but with the Mueller investigation wrapping up and all his other legal battles I think he will be in serious danger of impeachment and will resign playing the victim. This will make world politics and economy more predictable = markets will stop to swing so wildly)
Macro is always a risk but I would say we should be at 500+ in a year. The fundamentals are there.
Remember, Elon's compensation package is a thing... 650bn before 2028, first payout when they hit 100bn anda few other goalposts... so, not payout until some $550s SP.
I voted >900.
Not sure of course, but one of these days I expect a 2013-esc liftoff. Remember 2013 took us from the 30-ies to the 170-ies. TSLA has matured and grown so much. How can that justify the stock price only doubling in 5 years? Time to head to a new level. Maybe 2019 is the year it will happen.
(I had hoped it would happen 2018, but you know how that went.)
Looks like I'm only about 25-30% bullish on TSLA by the standards of this site. "By the standards of this site" being the key term
Also interesting that there seems to be a gap between the "Superbulls" (up to $770) and the "Hyperbulls" ($900+)