December 31st 2019 TSLA Share Price Office Pool

[adiggs]

I'm in the >$900 camp. I find anything under $900 to be really conservative.

My thinking is that with $3 in earnings in Q3, if that's carried forward for the next 4 quarters (neither higher nor lower), then we arrive at the end of 2019 as a company with $12 in trailing earnings that also spent the front half of the year showing growth over 100% year over year, with the annual growth being well north of 20% (2019 compared to 2018). I expect the delivered growth in the back half of next year to be more modest - something consistent with the learning that comes from manufacturing in volume, rather than a new product that is being produce in volume at that point.

I figure fast growing companies with $12 in earnings are worth more than as a 100 PE, or $1200.

To arrive at a $360 share price or lower, I need to believe that a fast growing company with $12 in earnings is worth a 30 PE or less. I can buy something non-volatile and boring with a 30 PE.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This year is The Crunch 2: can they deliver SR with reasonable profitability by end Q3?

I'm the $6-$250. Pessimists are never disappointed.

 

[Tslynk67]

If I win, do I get to choose whom to replace Lord Vetinari as Lord High Moderator?

Ain't happening, dude, it's a life sentence...

I'm going to $575 at the end of the year, but I think we'll see higher prices throughout, including a squeeze end Q2, beginning Q3.

As always, remember I know nothing, all opinion only, everything extracted from my rectum...

 

[winfield100]

Well I think it depends on if the Shortsville Times Chief Editor comes out of retirement.
If he stays retired (most likely) then a close of 450 with an ATH of 520.

If my particle entanglement experiments work out, I will be more exact in my prediction.
Liquid helium is just too damn expensive.

Using closed time like curves to violate causality is cheating.... but a fair fight is one you win

 

[RubberToe]

U.S. Recession Price: $423
No U.S. Recession Price: $471

RT

 

[Sudre]

For the year close..... I have become too pessimistic. I say under $400. Maybe so,where around 370-380.

Sure we will see some nice highs but I just don’t see the shorts going away and they will spin some FUD that will absolutely amaze us this year.... like the huge drop this morning we will see over tariff hype which is strictly all a political thing to get China to give Trump some concessions. And 3000 inventory cars.. REALLY. Like that is a problem.

Anyway. Hope I am wrong.

 

[AudubonB]

Pretty little bell curve beginning to develop.
I wonder when such curves become self-sustaining: do a majority of humans naturally gravitate toward a safety-in-numbers and thus tend to agglomerate toward the mode - other than those naturally disposed toward cantankerousness, who tend to hit the outlying points?

 

[X Fan]

$440....I'm figuring 2019 will be a recession year and despite that, TSLA leaps forward.

 

[Lucky_Man]

I'll also use the SWAG method. I'll put a big stack on $550-to-$600 - BUT - this price range will occur AFTER we see TSLA stock SPLIT at ~$420 ;^)

 

[Sudre]

I am surprised I can’t easily find previous years guesses but I found one..... put here so folks understand the accurancy of these polls. Who is it that said the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent?

 

[neroden]

You left off the all-important "I have no clue" option.

My prediction is that it will be *not less than $300*, and you all know the way in which I routinely bet on that.

 

[Johann Koeber]

This year is The Crunch 2: can they deliver SR with reasonable profitability by end Q3?

I'm the $6-$250. Pessimists are never disappointed.

Albert is quoted as saying:
“I'd rather be an optimist and a fool than a pessimist and right.”

Therefore I voted > $900.

 

[dmckinstry]

Albert is quoted as saying:
“I'd rather be an optimist and a fool than a pessimist and right.”

Therefore I voted > $900.

I didn't vote as my prediction wasn't specifically included. I'd rather be a pessimist and wrong than an optimist and wrong. I predict that SP will be less than $4000 at that time. Go ahead TSLA. Prove me wrong.

 

[vigleik]

I wouldn't be surprised if the stock price gravitates towards $420. I also wouldn't be surprised by $840, or $210, or anything in between.

Of course every year the consensus on this board is that a breakout is imminent, and based on the votes so far this year is no different. But I feel much more confident in my forecast of the SP in 10 years than in 1 year.

In any case: somebody has to guess 420, and it might as well be me.

I’m going to declare victory here. The low of $177 did surprise me just a little bit. I should have gone with my instinct and bet the house.

$840 next year?

 

[AudubonB]

I’m going to declare victory here. The low of $177 did surprise me just a little bit. I should have gone with my instinct and bet the house.

$840 next year?

A certain lady hasn't sung yet, cowboy. Hold yer 'orses.

 

[defc0n]

I may be right on TSLA stock price, but I’ve been terribly wrong on macros for this year

 

[EVNow]

Congratulations to 19 people who got it right.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I am going with $725 to close 2019
I will also bet a SP ATH for 2019 at $850

These numbers were calculated using the S.W.A.G.* method.

*Scientific Wild Ass Guess

Well, I have always known I am an optimist. Next year

 

[ZeApelido]

Wow the maximum likelihood of the probability distribution almost nailed. Beautiful

 

[defc0n]

What do I get for winning