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December 31st 2019 TSLA Share Price Office Pool

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by KarenRei, Jan 1, 2019.

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What will the share price of Tesla be at market close on the final trading day of 2019?

This poll will close on May 1, 2019 at 8:37 PM.
  1. $0-5

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. $6-250

    2 vote(s)
    1.4%
  3. $251-$340

    3 vote(s)
    2.2%
  4. $341-$390

    5 vote(s)
    3.6%
  5. $391-$430

    19 vote(s)
    13.7%
  6. $431-$460

    36 vote(s)
    25.9%
  7. $461-$510

    24 vote(s)
    17.3%
  8. $511-$580

    19 vote(s)
    13.7%
  9. $581-$670

    13 vote(s)
    9.4%
  10. $671-$770

    9 vote(s)
    6.5%
  11. $771-$900

    1 vote(s)
    0.7%
  12. > $900

    8 vote(s)
    5.8%
  1. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2012
    Messages:
    2,167
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    I'm in the >$900 camp. I find anything under $900 to be really conservative.

    My thinking is that with $3 in earnings in Q3, if that's carried forward for the next 4 quarters (neither higher nor lower), then we arrive at the end of 2019 as a company with $12 in trailing earnings that also spent the front half of the year showing growth over 100% year over year, with the annual growth being well north of 20% (2019 compared to 2018). I expect the delivered growth in the back half of next year to be more modest - something consistent with the learning that comes from manufacturing in volume, rather than a new product that is being produce in volume at that point.

    I figure fast growing companies with $12 in earnings are worth more than as a 100 PE, or $1200.

    To arrive at a $360 share price or lower, I need to believe that a fast growing company with $12 in earnings is worth a 30 PE or less. I can buy something non-volatile and boring with a 30 PE.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Helpful x 1
  2. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2012
    Messages:
    7,536
    Location:
    Maine
    This year is The Crunch 2: can they deliver SR with reasonable profitability by end Q3?

    I'm the $6-$250. Pessimists are never disappointed. :p
     
    • Funny x 1
  3. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    3,141
    Location:
    Brussels
    Ain't happening, dude, it's a life sentence...

    I'm going to $575 at the end of the year, but I think we'll see higher prices throughout, including a squeeze end Q2, beginning Q3.

    As always, remember I know nothing, all opinion only, everything extracted from my rectum...
     
    • Funny x 1
  4. winfield100

    winfield100 Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,866
    Location:
    bon vivant traveler, northern hemisphere mostly
    Using closed time like curves to violate causality is cheating.... but a fair fight is one you win
     
    • Funny x 1
  5. RubberToe

    RubberToe Supporting the greater good

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2012
    Messages:
    2,236
    Location:
    El Lay
    U.S. Recession Price: $423
    No U.S. Recession Price: $471

    RT
     
  6. Sudre

    Sudre Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2012
    Messages:
    388
    For the year close..... I have become too pessimistic. I say under $400. Maybe so,where around 370-380.

    Sure we will see some nice highs but I just don’t see the shorts going away and they will spin some FUD that will absolutely amaze us this year.... like the huge drop this morning we will see over tariff hype which is strictly all a political thing to get China to give Trump some concessions. And 3000 inventory cars.. REALLY. Like that is a problem.

    Anyway. Hope I am wrong.
     
  7. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2013
    Messages:
    6,403
    Pretty little bell curve beginning to develop.
    I wonder when such curves become self-sustaining: do a majority of humans naturally gravitate toward a safety-in-numbers and thus tend to agglomerate toward the mode - other than those naturally disposed toward cantankerousness, who tend to hit the outlying points?
     
    • Like x 2
  8. X Fan

    X Fan Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2015
    Messages:
    1,654
    Location:
    Naples, FL & OIB, NC
    $440....I'm figuring 2019 will be a recession year and despite that, TSLA leaps forward.
     
  9. Lucky_Man

    Lucky_Man Member

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2017
    Messages:
    122
    Location:
    Larkspur, CO
    I'll also use the SWAG method. I'll put a big stack on $550-to-$600 - BUT - this price range will occur AFTER we see TSLA stock SPLIT at ~$420 ;^)
     
    • Love x 2
  10. Sudre

    Sudre Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2012
    Messages:
    388
    I am surprised I can’t easily find previous years guesses but I found one..... put here so folks understand the accurancy of these polls. Who is it that said the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent? 46030EF7-1511-440D-A92F-9FCAA0451335.jpeg
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Love x 1
  11. neroden

    neroden Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan

    Joined:
    Apr 25, 2011
    Messages:
    11,501
    Location:
    Ithaca, NY, USA
    You left off the all-important "I have no clue" option.

    My prediction is that it will be *not less than $300*, and you all know the way in which I routinely bet on that.
     
    • Like x 1
  12. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Active Member

    Joined:
    May 1, 2012
    Messages:
    1,021
    Location:
    Schweinfurt, Germany
    Albert is quoted as saying:
    “I'd rather be an optimist and a fool than a pessimist and right.”

    Therefore I voted > $900.
     
  13. dmckinstry

    dmckinstry Model S - U.S. P - #1649

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2011
    Messages:
    1,344
    Location:
    Medical Lake, WA (near Spokane)
    #33 dmckinstry, Jan 8, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
    I didn't vote as my prediction wasn't specifically included. I'd rather be a pessimist and wrong than an optimist and wrong. I predict that SP will be less than $4000 at that time. Go ahead TSLA. Prove me wrong.
     
    • Funny x 1

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