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Decided to cancel

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by grashelm, May 25, 2018.

  1. grashelm

    grashelm Member

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    A week ago I made the decision to cancel my Model 3 reservation. I was a day 2 reservation holder with a Jun - Aug first production estimate. I might have mentioned in a couple of other posts that my desired config was a base 3 with EAP as long as I could get it with the Full $7500 tax credit. That's not going to happen unfortunately. I did hem and haw and seriously considered buying a first production vehicle, but just couldn't convince myself to pull the trigger. For me, the value proposition just isn't there for the current config (not an issue of financial means because I could easily pay cash for it - just a personal opinion on value). Fortunately, I am not in need of a vehicle at the moment, so plan on watching the rollout and maybe picking one up in a few years (which will also provide time for the maturation of EAP and FSD which I am most certainly interested in). Good Luck to all those waiting (some will be that much closer after my cancellation!) and glad those new Model 3 owners are enjoying their cars!! Will continue to follow the forum to stay up to date with evolution of the Tesla revolution. Cheers!
     
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  2. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    #2 ItsNotAboutTheMoney, May 25, 2018
    Last edited: May 25, 2018
    Quite understandable.
    I'm looking for SR + PUP (got to have heated mirrors) and I don't expect it to arrive before the tax credit drops and I'm much better off running my Prius into the ground.

    P3D and 3D are going to be the priority.

    I'm just not canceling because I considered my money gone when I made the reservation.
     
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  3. tpham07

    tpham07 Active Member

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    There is no indication the $7500 credit would have expired by the time you got your car
     
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  4. buttershrimp

    buttershrimp Click my signature to Go Mad Max Mode

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    Right behind you buddy.... going to cancel now.









































    I'll do it.
     
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  5. SigNC

    SigNC Member

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    If they want SR chances of it being full credit next year are unlikely. They wanted full credit on SR.
     
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  6. grashelm

    grashelm Member

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    True....we don't know when the credit will expire or when they will begin shipping the $35,000 base model....time will tell...If i'm wrong or right we will find out.
     
  7. grashelm

    grashelm Member

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    ;)
     
  8. drawfour

    drawfour Member

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    Estimate for Day 2 reservation holders for SR is early 2019. Highly unlikely Day 2 would get SR with full tax credit.
     
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  9. SomeJoe7777

    SomeJoe7777 Marginally-Known Member

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    #9 SomeJoe7777, May 25, 2018
    Last edited: May 25, 2018
    You probably wouldn't be able to get an SR with full tax credit (quarters 3 and 4, 2018), but there's a decent shot of getting it with half tax credit (quarter 1 2019).
     
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  10. Catman20009

    Catman20009 Member

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    I have been contemplating the same but I don't think there is a reason to cancel unless I buy a different car. It would keep me in line for something Tesla might offer me that I want and at a price I can't ignore somewhere down the road. But yea the federal deductions will be phasing out and interest rates will be rising by the time I get a base models in "early 2019". And having the M3 reservation gives me more confidence negotiating on another EV knowing the M3 is coming and is a fall back if nothing else rocks my boat.
     
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  11. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    From a purely financial perspective you made a serious error in judgement.

    What you didn't realize was the opportunity you had.

    Lots of people were waiting out for the AWD including myself. I'm only now just finding out that I probably won't be able to order the AWD version for maybe 6+ months.

    I didn't reserve way ahead of time since I didn't really need to. I have a Model S, and we were getting priority. But, we're not given priority on the AWD version for some unknown reason.

    I know I'm not the only one so there is like a considerable amount of people (more so than the RWD only one) that might be in an ideal position to buy your car/reservation from you. At the very least your car would have extremely low depreciation for at least 6+ months.
     
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  12. Arpe

    Arpe Member

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    Strange decision, i am quite sure that all "old" reservation holders in the US will have their Model 3 by 31st December 2018 (Full tax credit). As soon as we reach 1 July the 7,500$ tax credit is going to fade out in the US and all the cars Tesla can make in Q2 and Q3 will be sold in the USA. With the current situation at the factory with production rates close to 3,500 cars/week it is rather likely that 5,000 cars/week is within reach during July. Throughout the rest of the year this results in 130,000 vehicles produced, of which 10-15,000 may be in transit at year end. With the 30-50,000 vehicles already produced/delivered up until 1st July, this leaves us with 165,000 Tesla Model 3 delivered in the US and Canada (only to avoid 200,000 Tesla's in US before Q3).

    The total reservation number is 450-500,000 for the whole world. 150-200,000 of these are in the US and Canada, with 165,000 vehicles delivered in 2017/18 most of the current reservation holders have their vehicles with full tax credits.

    No vehicles are produced for the EU, China etc... before 1st January 2019. The only thing that can ruin deliveries of the standard battery is new reservation holders in the US which would like the Model 3 with long range and dual motors etc... these new reservation holder may jump the line for Tesla to get more cash.
     
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  13. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    AWD will be a very popular option and Tesla will prioritize it.

    The other thing that would further delay SR deliveries is _any_ continuing production and _production cost_ problems. Elon Musk has made it clear in a tweet that they can't deliver the SR until production improvements deliver positive margin, but even then they'll prioritize 3D over 3, which means that people buying the SR RWD will have to wait first for SR production to begin, while all the time seeing PDs, LRDs, LRs and SRDs skipping ahead of them.

    Also, the wait for SR helps to upsell the LR. If Tesla sells the SR RWD in 2018 I expect it to be at the end of 2018, to employees of the Muskian empire. Once the tax credit reduces to $3.75k, upsell to LR will be more difficult and at that point, as long as margins have improved enough, they'll move some SRs with PUP and/or AWD. I think Tesla will try to delay significant SR base production at least until they're delivering outside North America.
     
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  14. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    I would guess that the primary need is for the gigafactory to be able to produce packs in a full speed, fully automated fashion to bring the cost down. Follow that with Fremont at full speed before the SR is available.
    Basically the SR is adding more production complexity without adding value, yet.
     
  15. N5329K

    N5329K Active Member

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    Your cancellation makes perfect sense. I did exactly the same thing a while ago. I didn't have any reason to own a $50k + Model 3, and the Model 3 I did have a reason to own was not going to be available any time soon. If ever.
    Robin
     
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  16. McRat

    McRat Well-Known Member

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    Day One online (first 24h) here. I have not been invited. First delivery was listed as Nov-Jan, second delivery Feb-Apr, third delivery May-July. Unless something bizarre occurs the next delivery target will be Aug-Oct. Then back to Nov-Jan again. This for an Invite.

    If I wanted a car that wasn't 3LR PUP, I imagine the wait will be much longer.

    I'll cancel if the Jaguar iPace becomes available first, or GM does something interesting for 2019.

    It is frustrating having zero truthful information about the Model 3 except the features and price on the 3LR. No scheduling, no real options, no accurate info on non-PUP, AWD, or Performance variants. At least nothing written in stone.

    I did get a chuckle out the $35k speech. But I got suckered into thinking that the actual price will blow through the queue far faster than it did. If I was told $50k to start and 'late 2018' at POS, I would have bought something fun while waiting, maybe a used Model S or Roadster. The carrot on a stick crap is a crappy way to sell $60-80k cars.

    Now the non-whining part:

    If the environment is so critical then why:
    • People who drive to stores, sometimes long distances get first place in delivery queues when it can be done on-line.
    • Title transfers allowed scalping, hence making less wealthy ICE drivers wait longer for EV cars.
    • People with EVs get first deliveries, not people driving Hummers.
    • Accurate timetables would have had more people driving EVs while waiting.
     
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  17. Sportstick

    Sportstick Member

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    #17 Sportstick, May 26, 2018
    Last edited: May 26, 2018
    I think that is a very valid reason to cancel, and did so a while back (leasing one more/last? ICE vehicle), even before the current full list of quality bugs and craftsmanship issues arose, but the first hints were starting to appear. From door latch switches that unexpectedly lower rear windows to needing brake updates to improper first gen strut/shock calibration, I've lost enough confidence that I will find my EV elsewhere, based on the posts I have been reading here. With imminent models such as Volvo Polestar Model 2, BMW's newly announced i4, Mercedes EQ, and alternative vehicle bodies on the Chevy Bolt platform, I will feel far more comfortable planning my EV from a company with a longer and more successful history of building cars. (Yes, everyone has "issues", but the number and severity clearly vary). Once buying into the environmental benefits of EV, the rest becomes just brand choice. Maybe this was Elon's vision in the first place...push everyone else to catch up, but he likely did not plan on the ongoing series of confidence-deflating issues his development and production processes have yet to overcome. Despite the brilliant batteries and motors, the overweight body design revealed by Munro and Associates suggests a generation may be needed for him to fully right the ship for the Model 3. I wish him luck, but don't want to pay the price for his learning curve.
     
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  18. traxila

    traxila Member

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    I respect your decision and wish you the best but Tesla is not having more issues than regular ICE and legacy OEMs. Just a lot more attention. The list of trillion dollar industries that wish Tesla would just go away is fairly impressive. Regardless, buy a nice EV and enjoy.
     
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  19. novox77

    novox77 1.21 Gigawatts

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    For me, unless I suddenly need $1000, or I've firmly committed to buying another car (or committed to not buying one), I'd just leave the reservation alone. Circumstances could change in your favor in the meantime; why make an irreversible decision (giving up your reservation) that doesn't need to be made this instant?

    I had my $1k locked up for 2 years. I can't honestly say that the pain of parting with that money faded a long time ago.
     
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  20. Electroman

    Electroman Active Member

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    I suspect that there will be some SR deliveries this year, but those will all go to line waiters.

    And anything delivered this year will get full credit.

    I suspect that Tesla is trying to get much beyond 5000/week just for that purpose to maximize fed credits
     

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