Deciding to Delay Delivery until Battery Day

[anktaggrwl]

I placed an order for our LR AWD MY back on August 4th and have been patiently awaiting delivery - and was so excited to finally get a VIN 2 weeks ago and was provided with delivery date options of Sep 15-17...

While I'm scheduled for delivery on Sep 15th, my SA has let me know its very likely that it will be ready for pickup earlier than that date - but after thinking more about it - given battery day is on Sep 22nd - if/when I get the call that my car is ready for pickup and if it's ready before battery day, i'm going to let them know i'm not yet ready to accept delivery.

There may not be anything meaningful that makes it into the production line within the next few months, but kicking the can down the road by about a week to me is worth it to know what is coming down the pike (literally), versus accepting delivery and knowing that there could be a meaningful change to density and the production line within a few weeks/months.

While we've already sold our car that the MY would be replacing, we still have our beater car we've been using as our primary while we wait for the MY - and given our daily driving habits during the pandemic (virtually no daily driving) we'd be ok to wait another 2-3 months if battery day reveals changes to production within that timeframe.

If we're talking incremental changes to come in the next few months while major changes won't be seen until 1-2 years down the line, we'll take delivery at the next available date, but if in fact there's something actually worth holding out for coming soon - I figure a delay for more information, especially given that the timing is so close, can't hurt.

Is anyone else considering the same at all?

 

[caffeinated]

Yes, although in our case we haven't quite ordered yet. I think we will put it in this weekend although I'm still trying to decide the color. Everything else on the car we've decided (tow and FSD). I honestly think there won't be any impact to the MY for at least a year, but if you are looking at a Sept-Oct delivery range, it makes sense (to me) to find out what the announcement is. The only risk I can see is that you might end up waiting until the end of the 4th quarter for your car according to some on this forum because that is when they do the bulk of their US deliveries. And maybe at that point you'd rather have a 2021 model. And then there will be something else to wait for..... In general tech items get better and cheaper with time, but while you are waiting.....you are missing out.

 

[LNL_HUTZ]

I won't have my car before then for unrelated reasons, but if I were you, I probably wouldn't wait. I think it's highly unlikely that whatever new technology they announce will be incorporated into the MY as we know it--at least not for a few years. One article I read quoted Elon as saying that the improved batteries will be in production in 2-4 years or something like that.

The other thing is, you may end up having to wait a long time regardless of any upgrades. It doesn't seem like Tesla has the ability to delay your delivery for a specific period.

 

[LNL_HUTZ]

you might end up waiting until the end of the 4th quarter for your car according to some on this forum because that is when they do the bulk of their US deliveries.

You (and I) would be waiting until EOQ. OP is on the other side of the continent, so this wouldn't apply in the same way, even though it could still factor in depending on when the order is placed.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Understand the urge to wait till battery day, but Tesla has lots of improvements and betterments coming down the pike for years to come. Waiting for the next thing can delay forever. There will always be a next thing.

 

[BlindPass]

Understand the urge to wait till battery day, but Tesla has lots of improvements and betterments coming down the pike for years to come. Waiting for the next thing can delay forever. There will always be a next thing.

You keep promoting this impulsive view.

There is a big difference between waiting for battery day and waiting for the next thing.

And when buying something like a new car, when in doubt, waiting is generally the best option

 

[Uncle Paul]

That is why I noted that I understand your urge to wait till battery day. FOMO is a real thing.

 

[house9]

Seems like any new developments coming out of battery day will apply to S, X, Roadster, CyberTruck and Semi before they apply to the 3 or Y. Hell, they may need to build a new factory before they are doing mass production of dry battery? Seems very unlikely they will be making a hard switch to new battery tech the day after they announce anything.

Covid is a better reason to put off buying a new car, just a lot less driving going on in my life.

 

[DanDi58]

I think anything they announce on the 22nd would be available first in (an updated?) Model S/X, not a M3 or MY. Those are the 'halo' cars and I know Elon has said that they don't necessarily figure large in the future, but I suspect those are much more profitable cars at this point. The trickle-down may not take a long time, but the 3 and Y are relative newcomers and probably not going to receive and 'revolutionary' changes that may be announced for a while.

 

[anktaggrwl]

I think anything they announce on the 22nd would be available first in (an updated?) Model S/X, not a M3 or MY. Those are the 'halo' cars and I know Elon has said that they don't necessarily figure large in the future, but I suspect those are much more profitable cars at this point. The trickle-down may not take a long time, but the 3 and Y are relative newcomers and probably not going to receive and 'revolutionary' changes that may be announced for a while.

Yep - totally agreed - unlikely any significant changes made into production of 3/Y - but MAN is FOMO a thing - and i'd be kicking myself so hard if I took delivery only to find out that had I waited 7 days to learn there are changes worth waiting another few months for making their way to the MY (as opposed to years) - that I could've gotten an even better product.

Likely my pushing back will be moot - and I view the cost of waiting at close to 0, where the cost of receiving the car 7 days before new information released would be higher than 0 (fomo, remorse) for me which is what helped me arrive at the decision i've made. I don't NEED it on Sep 15th - and had I been assigned a VIN this week and had delivery slots made available for 9/23 or later instead of getting notice 2 weeks ago of delivery - i'd be none the wiser and this wouldn't even be a thread/consideration.

 

[NY_Rob]

A short list of improvements that you will get if you order now vs. earlier orders:

Trailer Hitch made available as a factory option
Heat pump acoustic cover added
HVAC "Octovalve" Manifold revised (several times)
Door unlock switches updated with descriptive icon
One piece rear mega-casting
Updated Tail lights

 

[anktaggrwl]

A short list of improvements that you will get if you order now vs. earlier orders:

Trailer Hitch made available as a factory option
Heat pump acoustic cover added
HVAC "Octovalve" Manifold revised (several times)
Door unlock switches updated with descriptive icon
One piece rear mega-casting
Updated Tail lights

Yeah - I think based on my current VIN and manufacture date of Aug 2020, likely the items listed above are all going to be on the car assigned to me - but if waiting a few more months adds incrementally more density/range - that's worth waiting to find out if that'll be a reality soon vs. years - for me.

 

[NY_Rob]

The good thing is, you have an order now in which gives you price protection (unless a feature is discontinued and replaced with something more costly). These cars only get better and better over time. I just had them "unmatch" a 43xxx VIN from my account so I can get an Oct/Nov built MY when the new SC opens near my home.

 

[ftmaybe]

I am waiting to put my Y order in until after battery day.

if they announce stuff that doesn't apply to my Y, I will just order. if they announce stuff that does apply but won't happen until 2021, I can at least decide if its worth waiting longer or not. my current car is paid for .. any amount I delay is just more money in my pocket every month. doesn't really bother me too much.

 

[Bombadgen]

I placed an order for our LR AWD MY back on August 4th and have been patiently awaiting delivery - and was so excited to finally get a VIN 2 weeks ago and was provided with delivery date options of Sep 15-17...

While I'm scheduled for delivery on Sep 15th, my SA has let me know its very likely that it will be ready for pickup earlier than that date - but after thinking more about it - given battery day is on Sep 22nd - if/when I get the call that my car is ready for pickup and if it's ready before battery day, i'm going to let them know i'm not yet ready to accept delivery.

There may not be anything meaningful that makes it into the production line within the next few months, but kicking the can down the road by about a week to me is worth it to know what is coming down the pike (literally), versus accepting delivery and knowing that there could be a meaningful change to density and the production line within a few weeks/months.

While we've already sold our car that the MY would be replacing, we still have our beater car we've been using as our primary while we wait for the MY - and given our daily driving habits during the pandemic (virtually no daily driving) we'd be ok to wait another 2-3 months if battery day reveals changes to production within that timeframe.

If we're talking incremental changes to come in the next few months while major changes won't be seen until 1-2 years down the line, we'll take delivery at the next available date, but if in fact there's something actually worth holding out for coming soon - I figure a delay for more information, especially given that the timing is so close, can't hurt.

Is anyone else considering the same at all?

While I don't think anything announced would make for meaningful change this year, I think it's well worth waiting.

 

[anktaggrwl]

Well it's official - I just pulled the trigger and let Tesla know via chat that I'm not yet ready for a Sep 15th delivery date - they asked if there's any other notes I'd want to add to the account and I said that I'd likely be ready by Sep 23/24th but understand that there may not be a car to give me by then...

• Worst case - I delayed delivery and there's no new announcements for MY anytime soon - and I don't get reassigned a new VIN for months (which is fine for us) and take delivery a few months later than we expected

• Better case - I delayed delivery and there's no new announcements for MY anytime soon - and I do get reassigned a new VIN right away and can pickup a MY on Sep 23/24th

• Even better case - I delayed delivery and there is new stuff worth waiting for and it'll be put into production for delivery within a few more weeks/months and is worth waiting for, take delivery a few months down the line but of a better product

• Best case - They've already implemented density changes to MY produced over the past few months, and wait until battery day to release a software update unlocking the extra density saying surprise it's already there - and I get delivery on Sep 23/24th.

 

[Sundiego26]

I feel like the better question is does anyone plan on turning your loan to lease, if given the news were pushed out a few years (which is more realistic in my opinion).

I realize Tesla's hold their value, which is why we are going with a loan but I am curious if anyone has switched to a lease in fear of the technology changing too rapidly.

thoughts?

 

[DanDi58]

Interesting......

https://twitter.com/cameron00505690/status/1301488301053018114?s=21

 

[LNL_HUTZ]

A short list of improvements that you will get if you order now vs. earlier orders:

Trailer Hitch made available as a factory option
Heat pump acoustic cover added
HVAC "Octovalve" Manifold revised (several times)
Door unlock switches updated with descriptive icon
One piece rear mega-casting
Updated Tail lights

I think this list actually supports both the FOMO and instant gratification positions. Yes, later-produced cars have seen improvements
over earlier ones. On the other hand, how many of these improvements were pre-announced with a rollout date? By doing away with the traditional model year pattern, Tesla has made it a fool's game to wait for something better because there is always something around the corner. That is what makes Battery Day different: at least you know when the announcement, whatever it is, will come.

• Best case - They've already implemented density changes to MY produced over the past few months, and wait until battery day to release a software update unlocking the extra density saying surprise it's already there - and I get delivery on Sep 23/24th.

• Absolute best case - Elon announces that Tesla's new batteries are so light that all cars manufactured after 9/22/20 will have FSF (full self-flying) mode in addition to FSD. Every car already in the delivery queue immediately loses 50% of its value and everyone who waited until Battery Day to take delivery travels like the Jetsons.

 

[LNL_HUTZ]

Interesting......

https://twitter.com/cameron00505690/status/1301488301053018114?s=21

Welp, I guess I'm moving to Europe. FOMO.