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Decision to keep or not to keep my 2013 Model S

ucmndd

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2016
6,916
13,058
California
The difference is that you can get a rebuilt engine for <$4k and a battery from Tesla will likely be 4 times that.
I don’t think anyone is disputing that an out of warranty 2013 S60 with a failed battery is mechanically totaled (just like a 2013 S500 would be with a blown motor, BTW).

But that’s a small risk, and spending $80k on a new car with a warranty to avoid that risk is financial foolishness.

OP’s car is probably worth less than $25k right now if we’re being realistic. If the battery blows the day after the warranty expires, he can probably sell it as a parts car for $15k without any fanfare or drama.

Yes, that’s a $10,000 “loss” that involves some risk. But the risk of that happening is pretty damn small.

Factor in the other variables - OP has another newer, reliable, warranted car that they use for most purposes. They don’t seem particularly interested in any other currently available car and might be well served to wait for something they DO want.

Put that ~thousand bucks a month you’d be spending on a new car just to avoid a potential repair in the bank every month - at the end of a year you’re almost certain to come out ahead and have some more money to put toward a new car you actually want.
 

tomas

Out of warranty...
Supporting Member
Oct 22, 2012
4,298
3,917
Santa Barbara/New York
Absolutely not. Depreciation is not linear, and at a point it levels off and becomes more an issue of car’s condition
Clarifying, as my gut reaction, non constructive post is haunting me... I realize the proposed function is not linear. But that would have car only lose 5% when it drives off the lot, so I think it is not steep enough at first, and it would value my 2012 P85 at around 18k right now, which is way low. ~25k is what I’ve been seeing for clean low mileage. I understand that the exponential creates a curve. I like the elegance though. Maybe it would work with a slightly higher fraction and an immediate deduction for first quarter.
 

zannman

Member
May 15, 2019
139
112
Ohio
Clarifying, as my gut reaction, non constructive post is haunting me... I realize the proposed function is not linear. But that would have car only lose 5% when it drives off the lot, so I think it is not steep enough at first, and it would value my 2012 P85 at around 18k right now, which is way low. ~25k is what I’ve been seeing for clean low mileage. I understand that the exponential creates a curve. I like the elegance though. Maybe it would work with a slightly higher fraction and an immediate deduction for first quarter.
No worries - it was a bad math joke. I did run the comparisons at denominator 4, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28, and 30 in a spreadsheet and cherry picked the one that looked closest to normal for the year and guesses for historical car values from 40k to 130k assuming good condition and average mileage. It's not too far off in the first 3 years for multiple cars from what I can tell.
 
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David_Cary

Active Member
Dec 17, 2012
1,240
779
Cary, NC
I think generally, you won't get much increased value for the very low mileage but the repair costs will probably be lower. So I would tend to favor keeping it.
But hey, I own a 2015 without a warranty except battery/DU. At 88k, I am still under $1000 in repairs but there was some DIY. Might be $2000 without DIY.
 

dark cloud

Active Member
Apr 14, 2018
2,073
2,387
BC

BigNick

Infamous Fat Sweaty Guy
Dec 3, 2017
1,302
1,558
Pennsylvania, USA
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FoxSTL2HOU

Member
Nov 12, 2018
511
296
HOU
The HV battery failed 2500 miles out of warranty on my 2013 S60. In hindsight, I wish I would've gotten rid of mine before the warranty was up, although the OPs miles are much lower than mine. Tough call.

What was the warranty mileage cutoff for the early 40s/60s, since you are still in the 8 yr window?
 

fsch

Member
Sep 21, 2015
151
177
Montreal, QC
Tesla Value = Original Price * ((19/20)^AgeInQuarters)
Here are residual values for "Long Range" MS (i.e. 85/90/100 excluding P) according to a couple sources compared to the equation above.

My experience is that (at least my) car maintained its value for a while (like Tesla-Info data, orange dots) then dropped when M3 started to be delivered "en masse". CarEdge shows a sudden 40% drop, or 15k$ after the 8-year warranty is over. The drop according to the equation above (exponential depreciation) would be 4k$.

So one might consider this ~10k$ extra drop in their calculations.
DepreciationMS-LR.png
 

FoxSTL2HOU

Member
Nov 12, 2018
511
296
HOU
...it would value my 2012 P85 at around 18k right now, which is way low. ~25k is what I’ve been seeing for clean low mileage...

What sources are you using for your 25k estimate (and is that private party or trade-in)? My hunch is that 18k is probably closer to the truth than 25k is.
 

tomas

Out of warranty...
Supporting Member
Oct 22, 2012
4,298
3,917
Santa Barbara/New York
What sources are you using for your 25k estimate (and is that private party or trade-in)? My hunch is that 18k is probably closer to the truth than 25k is.
Car gurus right now shows 2012 P85s listed 28 to 34, all assessed as “fair deals”. Even assuming 20% haggled off the midpoint, that’s 25. So my hunch is your hunch is wrong.
 

Electric700

Active Member
May 21, 2013
1,733
387
Florida, United States
As mentioned by other members, the main li-ion battery can be repaired by Tesla or a third party such as Gruber Motors. I suspect Tesla may have a competitive price for out of warranty cars, possibly and hopefully less than $1,000. They may be able to do the repairs at the service center in the future (if not already). I think this will really help the Tesla lineup keep its value for those who want to keep or purchase these out of warranty.
 

tomas

Out of warranty...
Supporting Member
Oct 22, 2012
4,298
3,917
Santa Barbara/New York
As mentioned by other members, the main li-ion battery can be repaired by Tesla or a third party such as Gruber Motors. I suspect Tesla may have a competitive price for out of warranty cars, possibly and hopefully less than $1,000. They may be able to do the repairs at the service center in the future (if not already). I think this will really help the Tesla lineup keep its value for those who want to keep or purchase these out of warranty.
I have seen no reports of Tesla repairing batteries at any price out of warranty nor any battery repairs at service centers. Decentralizing this would be out of character for Tesla, especially when the out of warranty population is so small relative to the new Y and 3 population. Nobody should expect this IMO. Ever. More possible they might drop price of centrally remanufactured batteries. But incidence of failure is so low, I don’t think this will get attention. The only wildcard is the battery-limiting legal action, which may force them to update tens of thousands of cars, which- if that happened- might cause a different approach.
 

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