Decoding the Reservation Number
- Thread starter Coolbreeze
- Start date
Aarons12
Enjoying my Pearl White LR AWD with inductions
i ordered a couple of weeks ago when the rumors of early release started. if it helps, my number is RN1112xxxxx
also if it matters, i ordered LR AWD in white. the only extra i chose was the sport wheels, which everybody gets now. so essentially i orderd an unmodified model.
also if it matters, i ordered LR AWD in white. the only extra i chose was the sport wheels, which everybody gets now. so essentially i orderd an unmodified model.
It looks like my order sits in the 70k range, so I am hoping for a late 2022 delivery if they start late 2021 and deliver 10 to 15k in last qtr 2021. Hopefully deliver another 75k in 2022. With close to 500k preorders they have a lot to benefit by ramping up quickly. Amazing demand for this truck.
Your estimates sound reasonable. I think the key for people with larger numbers (like me) is how much they are willing to ramp up the building. Without lots of batteries and serious ramping up, I won’t get one until the next decade. :^)
Reservations do not actually equal production numbers. At one point, the M3 unofficially had nearly 500K pre-orders. I think that Tesla opened up the floodgates before even reaching the 100K production mark. A lot of this is just overall interest in the vehicle, but less than a fourth will actually pony up the funds and order one.
So under 25% of these 500K reservations will turn into actual sales? That seems low. What are you basing that off of?
Just a question and i have no idea, but lets let demand 2 years from now far exceeds supply, could a reservation holder sell his reservation to someone? Could Mr I have to have this and can't wait pay a premium over the retail price for your truck with a signed agreement to move up to the early buyer.
I'm almost seems like those early reservations have value whether they plan to buy it or not. Like I said I have no idea but this is a revolutionary vehicle with a huge backlog already.
dazedNconfuzed
Member
Explicitly forbidden in the reservation contract.
There's probably some way one could arrange to make the purchase then promptly/soon sell it to another. Tesla isn't going to actually change the name/email/CC on your reservation; you're on the hook for pay up or lose place in line.
Actually, I couldn't find anything about not allowing transfer of reservations... it's just that they won't do it on their side.
This is what is in the agreement:
I think this is aimed at trying to stop businesses trying to deal in Teslas. I don't think they will go after private party single vehicle sales. But they won't let someone pick up your vehicle, so you'll have to sell it as a used vehicle.
edit: someone else may find more in the agreement, or in a different agreement, than I did.
I'm totally basing this off of the M3 reservation euphoria. I had quite a bit of insider information on the stats for the reveal and post production. Literally, there were over 300K reservations on the M3 @ $1K per reservation, which turned into nearly 500K (unofficially at one point). Before Tesla could reach 100K vehicles to be manufactured from the reservations, they had to open the doors to the general public (this is where the 1 in 4 reservation holders actually buy).
Demand being greater than supply will only last a short time as it has done so repeatedly with Tesla. Buying someone else' reservation is strictly forbidden, but there have been a few people that have successfully circumvented this system.
I can't stress enough, the truck euphoria will last a short time, early reservations that lead to about the first few hundred builds will be temporary unicorns.
They opened the orders up because they were only building one very specific configuration for 14 months and 60,000 vehicles. Once the AWD and performance versions came around they were back to a waiting list. For Model 3 they opened my configuration up in January but I did not order until May with September delivery as I was waiting.
The Cybertruck could be different as they are starting with the most popular configuration first. You also have the business owners that ordered multiple. That is not something you really saw with Model 3. One guy I know with 8 orders hopes to get two in 2021, two in 2022 and the other four in 2023.
Not entirely accurate. The M3 production began in July (2017; LR), with the next version beginning production in the following July (2018). There was never a reported wait-list, or backlog for the AWD/P versions of the vehicle. Those that had already made a reservation were the majority of stakeholders waiting for those variants. Once those were exhausted, Tesla held off production of the SR edition until early 2019. This is when they opened the flood gates to all others, who were already reportedly waiting on the SR/cheaper option Tesla.
As I've stated before, reservations for the Cybertruck are highly unlikely to achieve more than what they've generated in the past, which is a 1 in 4 production (speculation on my part). As a current reservation holder of the Cybertruck, I'll certainly be one of the reservation holders that actually follow through with the reservation hold.
In August 2017 Tesla said that they refunded 12% of deposits for the Model 3. "The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack."
I am choosing to know if Tesla has said they will start with the Tri-motor. I read one stat on here that indicated there were 5 thou more orders for the Dual motor than the Tri and said they would begin with the one that had the most orders. Since I am eagerly awaiting Tri production and according to this thread have about 21-22 thou reservations a head of mine, I would appreciate any info. Someone also said they would be released according to "region". Not sure what that means either. I am about to move to Tennessee from So. Cal (thank God) and now I wonder if that puts me in a better or worse delivery position. Thanks for any 'in the know' input since I am clearly in the dark.
Just noticed Cybertruck is not on the header of Tesla.com. Wonder what that's about.
Web site is still available using Cybertruck
After further checking, the Cybertruck site is available in the drop down list accessed at the upper right of the main page.
Web site is still available using Cybertruck
After further checking, the Cybertruck site is available in the drop down list accessed at the upper right of the main page.
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We can't know what they will do, but we can guess based on what they have done in the past. Still a guess.
Our reservations are not real orders, so which will be made first is not based on reservation number. Once we can convert our reservations into orders, THEN the model with the highest orders MAY come first.
Also, if Giga Texas happens (IF), and it is where Cybertruck will be built (another big IF), that COULD affect which region is first.
In other words, nobody knows what or where will be built/delivered first. Sorry.
Thanks so much. I really appreciate your response.We can't know what they will do, but we can guess based on what they have done in the past. Still a guess.
Our reservations are not real orders, so which will be made first is not based on reservation number. Once we can convert our reservations into orders, THEN the model with the highest orders MAY come first.
Also, if Giga Texas happens (IF), and it is where Cybertruck will be built (another big IF), that COULD affect which region is first.
In other words, nobody knows what or where will be built/delivered first. Sorry.
RN11280XXXX also night of but after a few hours of deliberation. Tri motor and once I heard tri motor was last ordered dual motor and number went to 113
Assuming Tesla honors delivery timing by reservation order serious buyers who ordered night of will be good as many ordered with no real intention to buy, no means to buy, or possibly thinking they can sell their place in line, which they can’t.
$100 refundable fee presents no risk. Rivian’s was $1000 and I happily reserved one but cancelled once cybertruck was revealed. I’m sure many others did as well and I think Rivian is now in trouble as now it looks like just another really expensive concept pickup. I hope they do well and help obliterate the 14mpg gas guzzlers but they need to move faster
I still also have my Rivian reservation as I want to see what happens. They already lowered or clarified the price after the Cybertruck reveal and it will get to take full advantage of the rebates and may come much sooner. I also still worry about pedestrian safety with the Cybertruck. Are crumple zones not required or just not for trucks?
Murphy’s Law
Vendor
Same here, mine is a 112747 and I ordered right when it went live on the site, I sat at my desk refreshing the damn page constantly every few seconds while watching the debut.
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