Decoding the Reservation Number

[electricjib]

i forget there are other teslas besides the y. the cyber truck is interesting, but not for me. if i want to drive something neat, i have a 1994 BMW 840.

Look at the cost of the Y, then the cost of the dual motor Cybertruck.

Things to consider:
1. It's not in production yet
2. The heat pump being used in the Y will likely jump across the lineup
3. Range
4. Space
5. Adaptive air suspension

I'm not saying its for everyone, but I look at it from a cost perspective and as former truck owner. Things will change and evolve and they had me sold with the release tech. I'd love a car with 300+ range, Adaptive air suspension, 16+ clearance, a truck bed, massive cab, model 3/Y tech, new UI (atleast from what we saw on release).... It keeps going. From just a cost perspective thats an insane deal.

 

[Khite100]

I’m curious when we will see actual option availability and more detailed specs.

 

[CarolinaBMXers]

ordered last week....

 

[Robbo770]

Mine is also RN11279XXXX...... but as in the UK doubt I will get mine any time soon

 

[TyPope]

I don't think you can determine the number of Cybertrucks ordered from your RN... I ordered a Cybertruck and then a Model Y and the numbers are REALLY close together indicating there is a single repository of RNs for all Tesla models together. Thus, all we can really determine is the total number of reservations since the unveiling which will include S,3,X,Y, and Cyber together. We can gather there have been 600,000+ new reservations for Tesla vehicles since the Cybertruck unveiling (if we are accurate as to the lowest number of Cybertruck ordered, that is).

Food for thought.

 

[Shahzada]

Reservations have some sort of chronology to them. There appears to be some outliers but generally, there is a sequential pattern. Lowest reported reservation is 112744124. I'm somehow VERY close to this number so I presumably have a very early reservation.

If that is true I have a very close number to that as well

 

[CMoZ]

I'm actually starting to suspect the current pre-orders are not ordered at all. I think everyone with a current pre-order will get configurations opened up at the same time and get to put down a real non-refundable deposit and order will be decided by who does that first.

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

Based on what?

"Get in line, dibs in order as models become available" makes sense if you're asking for a real $100 down.
"Late to order gets same priority as first to order, all get to make real orders at once" is insulting.

 

[RandyS]

It would be no surprise, based on past performance, if Tesla opens up ordering/configuration for the most expensive model (tri-motor) first to maximize revenue.

 

[wycolo]

Does the tri-motor actually suggest a higher margin for TM over the dual?
--

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

It would be no surprise, based on past performance, if Tesla opens up ordering/configuration for the most expensive model (tri-motor) first to maximize revenue.

That's a given. They'll make configurations in whatever sequence they see fit ... but aside from special connections, those with first dibs on that configuration get the first builds thereof.

 

[CMoZ]

Based on what?

"Get in line, dibs in order as models become available" makes sense if you're asking for a real $100 down.
"Late to order gets same priority as first to order, all get to make real orders at once" is insulting.

Why would that be insulting? If it was non refundable maybe, if it was a more significant amount of money for sure. But a fully refundable $100 deposit is pretty much nothing on a $40,000+ purchase. It's pretty clear that a lot of those $100 "pre-orders" will be dropped when they ask for the real non-refundable deposit. A lot of those $100 pre-orders are aspirational.

What makes a lot more sense is to use the $100 refundable deposit to gauge "real" demand. And then base ordering on who's actually willing to commit the real money when the time comes.

And that said I could be wrong it could be more complex. They could be released in batches based on model as well eg first 50k $100 spots are sent config invitations and given x amount of time to config or decline, then the next 50k , etc.

I definitely don't think there's any strict ordering to the fully refundable $100 pre order though. It really wouldn't make a ton of sense to do that

 

[ABCDE]

I see no problem in inviting first come first served, when they have adequate timeline, so those who opt out get pulled out of que... either way it doesn't matter, those that were in the in the first day are getting the cars quicker, I'll put my money on that.

where have we heard any stories of people in the "back of the line jumping to the front"..

 

[CMoZ]

I see no problem in inviting first come first served, when they have adequate timeline, so those who opt out get pulled out of que... either way it doesn't matter, those that were in the in the first day are getting the cars quicker, I'll put my money on that.

where have we heard any stories of people in the "back of the line jumping to the front"..

I mean like I say this is just my suspicion. But prior to this where have we ever heard of Tesla offering pre-orders with a $100 refundable deposit. We can't really use prior examples here

 

[Hank42]

Does the tri-motor actually suggest a higher margin for TM over the dual?
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I wonder too. As there are no tri-motor production cars yet, I can't imagine it will be. CT might very well be the FIRST tri-motor Tesla - despite talk about refresh S and Roadster(now delayed). The single and Dual are "old hat" by now, so certainly Tesla has managed to squeeze economic efficiencies into those setups.

 

[wycolo]

User would really need to be towing gooseneck or 5th wheel to safely/sensibly handle the full torque of the tri-motor rear axle.
--

 

[dazedNconfuzed]

User would really need to be towing gooseneck or 5th wheel to safely/sensibly handle the full torque of the tri-motor rear axle.
--

Explain.

 

[wycolo]

Ok, bumper pull would be helpful as well.
--

 

[Fairchild]

Reservations have some sort of chronology to them. There appears to be some outliers but generally, there is a sequential pattern. Lowest reported reservation is 112744124. I'm somehow VERY close to this number so I presumably have a very early reservation.

Mine is RN11293xxxx and ordered about three days after the initial offering.
I figure that will give them a couple of thousand vehicles to get the major bugs out.

 

[Zsazsa]

Reservations have some sort of chronology to them. There appears to be some outliers but generally, there is a sequential pattern. Lowest reported reservation is 112744124. I'm somehow VERY close to this number so I presumably have a very early reservation.

Yes, it was available that early! Couldn't decide which model to get. And, who knows what the final range and power will be.
I ordered 2 on 12/08/2019:
My Tri-motor # is RN113157xxx
My Dual motor is RN113158xxx