Deferring my order until forum members start to take delivery of their Sig's

[ophthodawg]

keep the faith!

remember Elon's tweet on 8/22/2012 " ...Production line review is looking good"

Elon Musk is not a bull shitter. He calls it as he sees it. He is surrounded by a solid executive team (eg. Gilbert Passin) so I believe they will continue to execute and pull it together.

That said;

I completely agree with derferring ones reservation until your gut feeling indicates its time to pull the trigger. This car is/will be an awesome car but it's also a substantial purchase. Being an early adopter ( ie buying the bleeding edge of technology) is not without risk. Other than having to wait a bit longer for your Model S I don't see a big downside of putting your purchase on hold. I beleive Tesla allows you to jump back in line if/when you want to.

 

[DrDave]

SS40 posted expected 8/28 delivery as others, but no reschedule yet.

Current Production Run Rate | Forums | Tesla Motors

Question: If Tesla produces a lot of its parts in-house, and they say they are having supplier problems, could one of the suppliers they are having problems with be themselves? :tongue:

 

[contaygious]

They didnt create banana leaf or the chrome handles apparently.

I agree on the mixed opinion of reps. They are nice, but I always get the same "if I knew more I would tell you. No date is final" response. Either reps are in the dark or are hiding something.

 

[Norbert]

They didnt create banana leaf or the chrome handles apparently.

I agree on the mixed opinion of reps. They are nice, but I always get the same "if I knew more I would tell you. No date is final" response. Either reps are in the dark or are hiding something.

My point of view on this hasn't changed: At this point of initial production before ramp-up, things can change on a daily basis, forwards and backwards and forwards. If they told you something on one day, it might in fact be outdated a few hours later.

 

[rcc]

What Norbert said. I'm sure things are changing on a daily and sometimes hourly basis.

It's not some evil conspiracy. They honestly don't know. Given what they're trying to do, no one can know.

And this uncertainty will continue until they're close to fully ramped. All it takes is for one supplier or the production line to hit a snag and things stall until someone can get it fixed.

I know it's hard to wait and but at this point in the process, that's what we have to do. If the uncertainty is really and truly driving you crazy, you can always save yourself some agony and defer until spring. At that point the manufacturing and supply processes should be pretty smooth and you'll get a prediction you can count on.

 

[doug]

While optimistic, I think it's best to try to maintain objectivity. Delays are to be expected, and I don't really expect many companies to be completely upfront about the minutiae of the cause their delays. I'm confident Tesla will get their issues worked out. Perhaps not as soon as everyone would like, but eventually. I also think it's perfectly reasonable to wait for confirmation that they've worked out their issues.

 

[ChrisC]

First off, I can't believe I'm writing this...
... While I hate the look of the Leaf and the utter ridiculous complexity of the Volt, they are in effect, back on the table. I'm strongly considering the Leaf on lease if the EPA mileage does indeed go up to ~90. Then getting a Model X.

Naturally, I disagree with you on the Volt. It's beautiful engineering

I actually spent a day with a Leaf today. Being used to driving a Volt (nearly two years now), in comparison the Leaf is ... torture. So many problems. Suck it up and spend an extra $10K for a Volt. The 2013 models have all the (minor) kinks worked out, some needed improvements, and are just a joy to live with.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Outside of the build quality, missing SW features and technical issues for production vehicles; Biggest unknowns at this point are the superchargers and quite frankly I'm worried about these being vaporware. My $71K Model S (60kWh) will be that much more valuable to me with a robust supercharger structure.

While I hate the look of the Leaf and the utter ridiculous complexity of the Volt, they are in effect, back on the table. I'm strongly considering the Leaf on lease if the EPA mileage does indeed go up to ~90. Then getting a Model X.

Am I interpreting you correctly in that if you learn that if a robust Supercharger network isn't imminent then you are seriously considering cancelling your Model S reservation?

If so, what would you consider a satisfactory outcome regarding the Supercharger roll-out that would cause you to pursue a Model S?

Thanks.

Larry

 

[aviators99]

Disco,
I rarely comment much anymore because the responses I get tend to be pretty cold, and I'd rather not come here on my leisure time to argue with people. But, I consider myself a very straight-shooter on things, fair and unbiased, weighing the facts and data until reaching a conclusion. Which can then change if the data presented warrants it.

<SNIP>

I agree with everything in your post. And although I am extremely impressed with the lifetime accomplishments and intelligence of Mr. Musk, I do believe he is a BSer. I wouldn't normally make such a strong statement, but his declaration of the "start of deliveries" in June was just over-the-top BS--I posted it then, and it's even more obvious now. In addition to the BS, there are many failures here that have not been mitigated, nor even officially admitted in many cases. These include range, price, and delivery time frames. I put my deposit down almost 3 years ago and have been defending it to friends and family for a long time. It's become harder and harder as the parameters of the vehicle have been changing over time, and not for the better. For some people, it's worse than it is for me. It seems certain to me that some people will have delivery pushed out to 2013 (maybe even me, even though I'm prior to general production!), when there seemed almost no chance of missing 2012. This could mean tax implications that raise the price of the car another $7,500 (some have more to worry about than tax repeal--what if you retire this year and don't have sufficient income to take the credit next year?). Early marketing brochures seemed pretty clear that there was an opportunity to get a Model S that had a 0-60 time of 5.6 for ~$57k in 2011.

jimbakker666's Sagan quote is well put. It's very easy to be an apologist for Tesla because you really want to believe, and that can really cloud your critical thinking. If you go back 3 years and read forum postings and marketing material, and follow it up until now, you will see countless promises that were stated by Tesla way too firmly, that have not been met. Many of these broken promises are beyond their control, but some were conscious decisions.

There are plenty of people on this forum for whom the $5k or $40k they put down is an overwhelming investment. If I were in that situation, I would be demanding it back now. I'm to the point where I'm suspicious about everything Tesla has said. I have no idea how long the battery will last. Based on the MT article, I believe I will be getting less than 200 miles range on my 85kwh battery here in South Florida based on my driving (yes I've read the replies to my posting to that effect in that thread, but I still believe this). It wasn't that long ago that Mr. Musk was heralding the fact that their 300 mile estimate was exceeded and that it's more like 320. I've now had to change the use case for the car to say that I can't take the trips to Orlando I was planning, and have re-justified the car for its new usage (I'm not counting on some supercharger in between Miami and Orlando that could take years to appear). In my mind I'm now thinking about 2 years after delivery and wondering if it will be sub-100, because I really have lost trust in Tesla's estimates even being in the ballpark. So, the conversation that goes on in my head is that the Model S is a beautiful car and my justification criteria had better be for spending over $90k for a beautiful car that might have the range of a Leaf in 2 years. The answer is still "yes" for me, but I'm known for making ridiculously expensive purchases that defy logic throughout my life and there's no reason to stop now.

 

[Discoducky]

Am I interpreting you correctly in that if you learn that if a robust Supercharger network isn't imminent then you are seriously considering cancelling your Model S reservation?

If so, what would you consider a satisfactory outcome regarding the Supercharger roll-out that would cause you to pursue a Model S?

Thanks.

Larry

First, I really appreciate this forum and everyone who participates in healthy conflict/open discussion. Make no mistake, we are the true reviewers, and TM knows that and I believe are betting on it for long term value. In my mind they are doing the opposite of Fiskar in that TM is making the Model S for "us" and not shipping a vehicle where some would question their ethics in shipping a "beta" as "production".

Second, I don't think there is a reality where I would cancel my Model S reservations. Let's just get that out of the way. It's a matter of "when". However, if TM can't get Sig's out the door by 9/13 then there is more at stake for me personally to move to non-refundable deposit (Industry/application/execution/leadership creep back into my mind as sliding scales and not givens). The factory tour in October was amazing and really sold my wife and I. They have the tools to be successful and have shown/produced limited product that is mind blowing, but is far from finished/ready for Signature holders (Elon's words, not mine) More speculation at this point is futile, I'm ready for some Signature deliveries.

Supercharging is important to me as CHAdeMO is to Leaf owners, but there are too many factors their to speculate on without hearing some details. The big *if* comes from new real owners reviews. Really looking forward to ggr and others taking delivery. Let's hope that Elon, George and Gilbert can find their way to set this unicorn free!

 

[dsm363]

I agree with everything in your post. And although I am extremely impressed with the lifetime accomplishments and intelligence of Mr. Musk, I do believe he is a BSer. I wouldn't normally make such a strong statement, but his declaration of the "start of deliveries" in June was just over-the-top BS--I posted it then, and it's even more obvious now. In addition to the BS, there are many failures here that have not been mitigated, nor even officially admitted in many cases. These include range, price, and delivery time frames. I put my deposit down almost 3 years ago and have been defending it to friends and family for a long time. It's become harder and harder as the parameters of the vehicle have been changing over time, and not for the better. For some people, it's worse than it is for me. It seems certain to me that some people will have delivery pushed out to 2013 (maybe even me, even though I'm prior to general production!), when there seemed almost no chance of missing 2012. This could mean tax implications that raise the price of the car another $7,500 (some have more to worry about than tax repeal--what if you retire this year and don't have sufficient income to take the credit next year?). Early marketing brochures seemed pretty clear that there was an opportunity to get a Model S that had a 0-60 time of 5.6 for ~$57k in 2011.

jimbakker666's Sagan quote is well put. It's very easy to be an apologist for Tesla because you really want to believe, and that can really cloud your critical thinking. If you go back 3 years and read forum postings and marketing material, and follow it up until now, you will see countless promises that were stated by Tesla way too firmly, that have not been met. Many of these broken promises are beyond their control, but some were conscious decisions.

There are plenty of people on this forum for whom the $5k or $40k they put down is an overwhelming investment. If I were in that situation, I would be demanding it back now. I'm to the point where I'm suspicious about everything Tesla has said. I have no idea how long the battery will last. Based on the MT article, I believe I will be getting less than 200 miles range on my 85kwh battery here in South Florida based on my driving (yes I've read the replies to my posting to that effect in that thread, but I still believe this). It wasn't that long ago that Mr. Musk was heralding the fact that their 300 mile estimate was exceeded and that it's more like 320. I've now had to change the use case for the car to say that I can't take the trips to Orlando I was planning, and have re-justified the car for its new usage (I'm not counting on some supercharger in between Miami and Orlando that could take years to appear). In my mind I'm now thinking about 2 years after delivery and wondering if it will be sub-100, because I really have lost trust in Tesla's estimates even being in the ballpark. So, the conversation that goes on in my head is that the Model S is a beautiful car and my justification criteria had better be for spending over $90k for a beautiful car that might have the range of a Leaf in 2 years. The answer is still "yes" for me, but I'm known for making ridiculously expensive purchases that defy logic throughout my life and there's no reason to stop now.

With regards to Tesla advertising a 300 mile range with 0-60 in 5.6 seconds for $57,400 do you have a link for that? This has been discussed before and most people understood that they were advertising the top of the line model specs and also listing the base price but didn't qualify them initially. From early 2011
Tesla Motors - Model S
Very early on (when Tesla probably didn't even know the final specs of all the battery packs) there was some inconstant advertising that didn't add 'up to' 300 miles and 'as quick as' 5.6 seconds but they soon added 300 miles at 55 mph and they did state that the $49,000 was base price after federal tax credit. I'm pretty sure most people realized that the $57k was the base price of the car although that may not have been made totally clear initially. I don't think Tesla was trying to trick anyone here since the deposit was 100% refundable when they announced final price and specs in December 2011. They certainly should have been more transparent about the different 0-60 times but don't think they lied about the range. Their range certainly is under absolute ideal circumstances but not a lie. I've taken my Roadster in the Texas heat 205 miles so I seriously doubt if the 85 kWh Model S will loose 200 miles of ideal range in 2 years and not be able to make that kind of trip.
Model S Efficiency and Range | Blog | Tesla Motors

If Tesla does not get to your car by this year then there are much bigger problems then a slight delay. While Tesla may not have handled the PR aspect of things well recently their technology seems to be on point. If your car lost almost 70% of it's range in 2 years you'd certainly have a warranty claim and they'd replace your battery. Do you have evidence this has been happening to Roadsters? I believe the Roadster in Germany with over 100,000 miles is down maybe 10% but I'll have to try and find that link. My car is down 2% in 20 months and that's with a much less sophisticated management system than the Model S.

The car getting delivered in 2013 wouldn't have any tax implications other than having to wait an entire year for the federal tax credit if I understand that correctly. Tesla has that tax credit for 200,000 cars so unless that program gets canceled, the tax credit should still be around in January 2013 for example.

I understand your frustration as it's been a long wait but think once you get the car, you'll be pretty happy. I agree that the start of deliveries was mainly for PR and they should have said so.

 

[aviators99]

With regards to Tesla advertising a 300 mile range with 0-60 in 5.6 seconds for $57,400 do you have a link for that? This has been discussed before and most people understood that they were advertising the top of the line model specs and also listing the base price but didn't qualify them initially. From early 2011

I have a hard brochure that says $49,999 after tax credit, 0-60 in 5.6 and 300 mile range. This was from 2009.

If Tesla does not get to your car by this year then there are much bigger problems then a slight delay. While Tesla may not have handled the PR aspect of things well recently their technology seems to be on point. If your car lost almost 70% of it's range in 2 years you'd certainly have a warranty claim and they'd replace your battery.

Would you care to underwrite this?

Do you have evidence this has been happening to Roadsters?

No, I have evidence to the contrary. But this is not the roadster. My point was that so far there have been other statements that haven't been achieved, so I have lost faith in general.

The car getting delivered in 2013 wouldn't have any tax implications other than having to wait an entire year for the federal tax credit if I understand that correctly. Tesla has that tax credit for 200,000 cars so unless that program gets canceled, the tax credit should still be around in January 2013 for example.

You are incorrect, in the sense that you have made a generalization. As I stated, if one has income in 2012 and no income in 2013, they would lose the tax credit, even if it is still in place.

I understand your frustration as it's been a long wait but think once you get the car, you'll be pretty happy. I agree that the start of deliveries was mainly for PR and they should have said so.

I agree I'll be pretty happy. That's because (as I've stated) I've gone through the exercise of justifying the purchase despite the fact that it will no longer be what I thought it would be when I put my deposit down. If I didn't think I would be happy with the car, I would be demanding my money back right now. I'm not presently happy with the company, and am seriously concerned that it won't be the "game changer" I thought it would be. But in terms of myself, I'll be happy with it.

 

[thelastdeadmouse]

If Tesla does not get to your car by this year then there are much bigger problems then a slight delay. While Tesla may not have handled the PR aspect of things well recently their technology seems to be on point. If your car lost almost 70% of it's range in 2 years you'd certainly have a warranty claim and they'd replace your battery.

Would you care to underwrite this?

If I had a way of pulling usage and charging logs to prove the battery hadn't been abused, I would LOVE to sell you a battery replacement guarantee for the low low price of $1,000 under those terms.

Now I just have to find 69 other people to do it and I'll have it made in the shade.

 

[dsm363]

I have a hard brochure that says $49,999 after tax credit, 0-60 in 5.6 and 300 mile range. This was from 2009.


Would you care to underwrite this?


No, I have evidence to the contrary. But this is not the roadster. My point was that so far there have been other statements that haven't been achieved, so I have lost faith in general.

You are incorrect, in the sense that you have made a generalization. As I stated, if one has income in 2012 and no income in 2013, they would lose the tax credit, even if it is still in place.

I agree I'll be pretty happy. That's because (as I've stated) I've gone through the exercise of justifying the purchase despite the fact that it will no longer be what I thought it would be when I put my deposit down. If I didn't think I would be happy with the car, I would be demanding my money back right now. I'm not presently happy with the company, and am seriously concerned that it won't be the "game changer" I thought it would be. But in terms of myself, I'll be happy with it.

I have that same brochure. They probably should have done a better job qualifying those statements I agree. They did provide all information about the specs well before the deposit became non refundable. Some other things are still in flux and that is not the way they should be doing things but it looks like they're going down to the wire to get this thing out.

You are correct there are no gaurantee that the battery wouldn't drop to 30% capacity in 2 years but there is zero evidence something like that would happen. I don't plan on underwriting other people's cars but I'm comfortable with their warranty.

You're correct the Model S is not the Roadster but the Model S has a more advanced battery management system so one would hope it is better than the Roadster.

There are instances where the tax credit wouldn't apply as you said but for most people, it will still be around.

You may have to drive 65mph instead of 75mph but you should have no trouble making a 200 mile trip. While advertising 300 miles at 55mph under ideal circumstances is a little unrealistic, Tesla did provide that chart I linked above which shows a little more data.

 

[qwk]

I think its fair to say that Tesla technology is out of this world, but the marketing team and pr stunts(over promising and under delivering) are mediocre at best.

 

[dsm363]

I think its fair to say that Tesla technology is out of this world, but the marketing team and pr stunts(over promising and under delivering) are mediocre at best.

I totally agree. I'd say it's a new company with growing pains but that can only explain that away for so long. They have listened at times. I and others told them very early on that saying 300 miles without listing a speed was a mistake.

 

[Larry Chanin]

While I hate the look of the Leaf and the utter ridiculous complexity of the Volt, they are in effect, back on the table. I'm strongly considering the Leaf on lease if the EPA mileage does indeed go up to ~90. Then getting a Model X.

[...], I don't think there is a reality where I would cancel my Model S reservations. Let's just get that out of the way. It's a matter of "when".

Thanks for the elaboration.

I hope you can appreciate that it was your strongly worded statement, quoted above, that led me to the impression that you were seriously considering cancelling your Model S reservation(s), leasing a Leaf in the interim, and eventually getting a Model X.

Regardless, I completely understand your desire to hear the real life experiences of owners before committing.

Larry

 

[sp4rk]

Naturally, I disagree with you on the Volt. It's beautiful engineering

I actually spent a day with a Leaf today. Being used to driving a Volt (nearly two years now), in comparison the Leaf is ... torture. So many problems.

Torture?

Would you care to elaborate? I have been driving a Leaf for 4 months and I love it. No problems at all. Well, incredibly minor ones that are not worth mentioning.

Am I "upgrading" to a Model S? Yes. But not because I don't like the Leaf.

Why spend $10k more to have shoddy gas components added to an electric car?

Not me!

 

[brianman]

Very early on (when Tesla probably didn't even know the final specs of all the battery packs) there was some inconstant advertising that didn't add 'up to' 300 miles and 'as quick as' 5.6 seconds but they soon added 300 miles at 55 mph and they did state that the $49,000 was base price after federal tax credit.

Regarding the "up to" language...
Compare the text in the Overview tab versus the Range tab here.

Anybody know how old this "brochure" is? Observe the "9" wheels.
Tesla Motors - Model S

 

[qwk]

Torture?

Would you care to elaborate? I have been driving a Leaf for 4 months and I love it. No problems at all. Well, incredibly minor ones that are not worth mentioning.

Am I "upgrading" to a Model S? Yes. But not because I don't like the Leaf.

Why spend $10k more to have shoddy gas components added to an electric car?

Not me!

I don't understand why some people are biased against certain cars. Having driven the volt, leaf and model s, I can't see how the leaf is torture compared to the volt. The volt I drove was much less impressive than the leaf. The throttle response was something that I personally could never live with. Then you have the ICE and associated problems that come with it. The leaf drives decent, but the range is all over the place. The guess-o-meter along with the low range is just unacceptable for the general public. Both cars are on par with low end ICE vehicles in my opinion. The S blows both cars out of the water, and for the price tag it very well should. If one could afford the S, the value is just that much greater because you will be getting a "real" car that just happens to be an EV with very little compromise.

- - - Updated - - -

Regarding the "up to" language...
Compare the text in the Overview tab versus the Range tab here.

Anybody know how old this "brochure" is? Observe the "9" wheels.
Tesla Motors - Model S

The wording Tesla used is no different than other automakers. It is only deceiving if you are gullible or just want something for nothing. The words " up to 300 miles" should clue anyone in, along with the base price of $49.4k with an asterisk next to it. The 5.6 0-60 on the other hand is questionable as it implies that is the spec of all cars. That's why their marketing team sucks and needs to be fired. If they were truly different than other automakers, they wouldn't use the same sleazy tricks.