Deferring my order until forum members start to take delivery of their Sig's

[NigelM]

I think everyone with an SSL number higher than 180 should defer, just to be safe.
Please note, that recommendation has absolutely nothing what-so-ever to do with the fact that I have SSL180

Ahem!

 

[vfx]

... I put my deposit down almost 3 years ago and have been defending it to friends and family for a long time.....

Shades of Roadster delivery.

Over a one year delay not only had friends asking but the dual financial hits were even worse to us. Are you hit by that? The delivery push delayed my sale of an SUV to 2008 a time when gas guzzlers dropped in price by almost half (we just kept it) and the fund that supplied the (counted on) $5000 CA rebate that Martin and other Tesla owners got, ran out before our delivery. The emotional impact of waiting was mitigated by the incredible emotional impact of living with the Roadster but the to those complaining about the Model S know that the financial impact still resonates.


And to Tesla: I know it's Elon's "thing" to make big announcements to get press attention. As Doug and Greg pointed out Elon's Roadster number one saw 6 to 8 months before the production line actually started pumping out cars.
You should know that for YEARS I would have people (who knew that the company existed) ask me A. How long did I wait? B. (after two years of ownership) Oh, I thought those were delayed. and C. Didn't they go out of business?

 

[bonnie]

+1 -- I am still asked how long I had to wait for my Roadster (yesterday, by someone in the office). The perception is still out there.

 

[NigelM]

Shades of Roadster delivery.

Over a one year delay not only had friends asking but the dual financial hits were even worse to us. Are you hit by that? The delivery push delayed my sale of an SUV to 2008 a time when gas guzzlers dropped in price by almost half (we just kept it) and the fund that supplied the (counted on) $5000 CA rebate that Martin and other Tesla owners got, ran out before our delivery. The emotional impact of waiting was mitigated by the incredible emotional impact of living with the Roadster but the to those complaining about the Model S know that the financial impact still resonates.


And to Tesla: I know it's Elon's "thing" to make big announcements to get press attention. As Doug and Greg pointed out Elon's Roadster number one saw 6 to 8 months before the production line actually started pumping out cars.
You should know that for YEARS I would have people (who knew that the company existed) ask me A. How long did I wait? B. (after two years of ownership) Oh, I thought those were delayed. and C. Didn't they go out of business?

(Couldn't resist....:wink

 

[vfx]

I have seen 6 cars being prepped at the LA store all Sigs. One was driving away to be delivered. Are they friends of Elon? Why even ask? It's not like they got a free car.

 

[Doug_G]

+1 -- I am still asked how long I had to wait for my Roadster (yesterday, by someone in the office). The perception is still out there.

Yeah, I get that question occasionally. I give them a quizzical look and say, "I just ordered it and it came".

 

[Trnsl8r]

I think everyone with an SSL number higher than 180 should defer, just to be safe.
Please note, that recommendation has absolutely nothing what-so-ever to do with the fact that I have SSL180

Me thinks you meant to say "lower"...? :wink:

 

[AltPowr]

Going back to the first post in this topic, wow. I would never consider the Leaf - it is literally hideous looking, almost as bad as an old Citroen. As for the Volt, like the Fisker, in my opinion it is not a true electric car if it has a gas tank. If I was backing out on my order, I would just keep driving whatever I have now a while longer. I would never buy a Leaf, Volt, or Fisker. The only alternative I would consider would be the RAV4 EV, just because it looks "normal". But I'm not backing out - I always go for whatever is on the bleeding edge - and I would gladly swap someone for an earlier production number for my P2067.

 

[vfx]

If I was backing out on my order, I would just keep driving whatever I have now a while longer. I would never buy a Leaf, Volt, or Fisker. The only alternative I would consider would be the RAV4 EV, just because it looks "normal".....

But if you car now was in need of replacement or money was just burning a hole in you pocket, a Leaf or RAV4 support the larger move to fully electrified transportation.

 

[Cottonwood]

My earlier post on another thread, Model S Delivery Update - Page 29, today:

I'm SSL#40, VIN#37, Roadster VIN#433 and got the good news that my car is ready in Fremont as of yesterday. Now I will have to see how long it takes for transport and prep in Denver before I take delivery in Colorado! I am getting the paint armor and I believe that is being applied in Denver, adding at least a day to the schedule. After 3.5 years, what's a few days, but...

The flow of Model S's is starting...

 

[neroden]

Outside of the build quality, missing SW features and technical issues for production vehicles; Biggest unknowns at this point are the superchargers and quite frankly I'm worried about these being vaporware. My $71K Model S (60kWh) will be that much more valuable to me with a robust supercharger structure.

While I'm pretty sure Tesla will build some Superchargers -- in California -- I have no expectation that they will roll out a nationwide network. I have to assume they won't.

I'm pretty pleased by the information I read from the people to get very early deliveries. I don't care about any of the build and software issues *they* had, so that's good news as far as I'm concerned.

However, I'm still much more comfortable being later in the queue. For one thing, I couldn't use the tax credit THIS year (no tax) but I probably will be able to NEXT year. For another thing... I can wait a year. I've been waiting a long time. I can wait a bit longer; I don't absolutely have to get a car immediately (though I've been spending a lot of time with cars going into the shop lately...) Tesla Roadsters are generally considered to have gotten better from 1.0 to 1.5 to 2.0 to 2.5; I'm pretty sure having a later car on the production run will leave me with less trouble.

So go for it: defer. It sounds like the right thing to do.

This is coming from the guy who CANCELLED and then made another reservation, mind you.

 

[Discoducky]

So go for it: defer. It sounds like the right thing to do.

This is coming from the guy who CANCELLED and then made another reservation, mind you.

Hoping I won't need to delay/slip my spot in line, however, if we can get some posts from Sig's here in the next week or so.

I will say it's very brash and cocky of TM to be "Finalizing" folks out in the P#6K range right now (As I also hold #6318) as they have yet to hit SSL#100.

But I hope that TM can walk that talk!

 

[Norbert]

While I'm pretty sure Tesla will build some Superchargers -- in California -- I have no expectation that they will roll out a nationwide network. I have to assume they won't.

While Tesla will surely start in California (I think a third of all US EVs are sold in CA), the original plan was to build an "H"-shaped network first: with about 40 chargers, routes along both coasts, and an interconnection. Although that was said a while ago, and plans might have changed, Tesla hasn't said anything contradictory in the meantime.

 

[GSP]

An "H-shaped" network may be a place to start, but I am hoping for a "grid-shaped" network. Otherwise I will have to keep an ICE car.

GSP

 

[ElSupreme]

I want to bring this up in this discussion. In manufacturing you typically go from a few units a day to 100% speed in about a week. Ramp ups are not really ramped. You validate all you equipment at speed, but on low quantities. When everything checks out you just start 100% speed. It only takes about a week to get the volume kinks fixed.

I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla can flip a switch and start making 2k units a month. I am not 100% confident that they are ready to flip that switch.

 

[Lyon]

I want to bring this up in this discussion. In manufacturing you typically go from a few units a day to 100% speed in about a week. Ramp ups are not really ramped. You validate all you equipment at speed, but on low quantities. When everything checks out you just start 100% speed. It only takes about a week to get the volume kinks fixed.

I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla can flip a switch and start making 2k units a month. I am not 100% confident that they are ready to flip that switch.

That's a very interesting bit of information. I hadn't thought about it that way, but I suppose it makes sense. So they're not doing each action/step (or whatever you want to call it) more slowly during this period. I had wondered why the production "ramp" could be so quick and this explains it.

 

[PhatCat]

I want to bring this up in this discussion. In manufacturing you typically go from a few units a day to 100% speed in about a week. Ramp ups are not really ramped. You validate all you equipment at speed, but on low quantities. When everything checks out you just start 100% speed. It only takes about a week to get the volume kinks fixed.

I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla can flip a switch and start making 2k units a month. I am not 100% confident that they are ready to flip that switch.

Posts like this make it worthwhile to wade through all the whining and endless speculation of some threads here. Thanks.

 

[cinergi]

Management recently outlined its plan to ramp up production in the Q2 earnings conference call. The ramp up would trace an S-shaped curve, with a gradual increase initially (around 40 cars a week in Q3), followed by a steep increase to around 375 cars a week in Q4.

It's still Q3.

 

[Todd Burch]

I want to bring this up in this discussion. In manufacturing you typically go from a few units a day to 100% speed in about a week. Ramp ups are not really ramped. You validate all you equipment at speed, but on low quantities. When everything checks out you just start 100% speed. It only takes about a week to get the volume kinks fixed.

I have no doubt in my mind that Tesla can flip a switch and start making 2k units a month. I am not 100% confident that they are ready to flip that switch.

As further validation of this, recall Elon's description of the ramp at the Q2 earnings call: a steep S, not a shallow S. The initial buildup is very slow, followed by a rapid ascent to production speed.

 

[Vger]

As further validation of this, recall Elon's description of the ramp at the Q2 earnings call: a steep S, not a shallow S. The initial buildup is very slow, followed by a rapid ascent to production speed.

Yes, here is a telling exchange. While Elon does not specifically validate what the analyst says, he does say that his numbers to characterize the ramp-up are essentially correct.

Adam Jonas - Morgan StanleyI’m going to go back to the point about the Model S S curve ramp from Q3 to Q4. So you’re at 10 cars a week now. I guess you’ll be averaging just over 40 a week in Q3. And then to ramp to an average of 375 a week in Q4 to kind of make the 5,000 full year number. So I totally take on board your point about the shape of the S curve, and it’s more like a switch than a ramp, if I’m not mistaken.
But in order to make sense of this, I think, that vertical portion of the S curve would have to happen not only pretty quickly but really very early in the fourth quarter. Or else you’d be implying an exit rate that would be way, way over 375 a week, which would be implying, I guess - maybe this is what you’re implying - that you’d be doing way over a full-year clip of 20,000 a year. So is there any other way you can kind of give us an idea - and if you can’t, I understand - what your exit rate might be in the third quarter, or your entry rate in the fourth? Or am I right to be thinking that in order to do your 5,000, that geometric switch has to be pretty damn early in Q4?
Elon Musk - Chairman, Product Architect, and CEO
I think you’re essentially right about counts. We will be at a higher production rate than 20,000 a year at the end of the year.

Bolding is mine, for emphasis. Tesla seems on track to do exactly or very nearly what this analysts predicts. We seem to be near the 40/week rate now, and as Cinergi points out, we are still in Q3. Hopefully ElSupreme's and the analyst's "switch" to 100% capacity is only a few weeks away.