Here's the thing that (I suspect) a LOT of people keep missing. The number of care en route will continue to rise every quarter as long as Tesla is growing. If there are 1000 en route now there will be MORE en route after Q3. not less.
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Delay in model X launch?
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Here's the thing that (I suspect) a LOT of people keep missing. The number of care en route will continue to rise every quarter as long as Tesla is growing. If there are 1000 en route now there will be MORE en route after Q3. not less.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Quite possibly. Since Tesla switched a few months back from trucks to (slower) trains for shipping cars, it would be logical for the quantity in transit to increase and then (likely) plateau. In a year where more folks tend to be leaning bearish on the delivery guidance, I'm wondering whether Tesla might switch back to trucks for at least some deliveries towards the end of the year. It would also be understandable (at least from a financial perspective) if Tesla prepares to prioritize west coast deliveries of Model X towards year-end.
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
I am not sure if trains are really slower than trucks. Perhaps this is true on short distances but since the cars are shipped in containers and a train can hold quite a few of these, it should actually improve the shipping time (and cost). I am guessing this is why Tesla switched to trains. Much higher volumes over longer distances.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Definitely slower. read some of the comments in the MS ordering section; whole thread here Bummer-Three-weeks-on-train. I agree with you it's undoubtedly cheaper though.
BrianC
Member
With how Tesla sells its cars (no dealerships and fully custom) they will always be tipping from using semis or trains as cost/time. You simply cant have 5 cars on a train that are going to Ohio and expect it to come sooner because of the routing it has to go from the time it would take a truck.
trains = volume and cost
trucks = time (in most cases)
*Of course this is only for the USA and not Europe that has a better train system because of the countries have rail yards compared to main hubs here so please dont start that argument.
pvogel
Member
NigelM
Recovering Member
Guys - back up and look at the bigger picture. Trains vs trucks is not important to the overall concept. If sales are ~12,000 per quarter and we currently have 1,000 in transit then you can bet with ~24,000 per quarter (whenever that is), there will be ~2000 cars in transit.
Timing (i.e. days inventory) will be different for every business, but it's no different than how many Apple iPhones are in transit when they are sold via the Apple website (i.e. no retail involvement) or how many books are in transit from Amazon. Those businesses may not recognize revenue at delivery (I have no idea if they do or don't), but Tesla does, so when more cars are sold over a given period, more cars will be in transit. We should hope to hell that it does not decline anytime soon. Growing business = growing # of cars in transit at any point in time (and the balance sheet is a snapshot in time)
Timing (i.e. days inventory) will be different for every business, but it's no different than how many Apple iPhones are in transit when they are sold via the Apple website (i.e. no retail involvement) or how many books are in transit from Amazon. Those businesses may not recognize revenue at delivery (I have no idea if they do or don't), but Tesla does, so when more cars are sold over a given period, more cars will be in transit. We should hope to hell that it does not decline anytime soon. Growing business = growing # of cars in transit at any point in time (and the balance sheet is a snapshot in time)
NigelM
Recovering Member
I think everyone gets that; the discussion is about short-term and delays (or otherwise) and how many cars we expect delivered this year. The investor section is interested in revenue, this thread is more focused on we'll get our cars. ;-)
Considering I've actively taken part in exactly two or three threads on TMC over the past week or so, and only this one included a debate, I would say some of the reactions are wee bit over.
I mean... I am stopping "rest of us can get something positive from this forum" with this one thread? Quite the power.Seems more of an emotional response than rational.
But each to their own.
I'd agree. I've been on many forums and have seen my share of trolls. I wouldn't categorize you as one.
I just read that Model X will be revealed on the Frankfurt (Germany) car show (IAA 2015 from September 17 to 27)
This is in Dutch Tesla Model X zal in Frankfurt onthuld worden!
Here is the Translation Google Translate
This is in Dutch Tesla Model X zal in Frankfurt onthuld worden!
Here is the Translation Google Translate
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
I'd be surprised if they did the first reveal at an auto-show...seeing as how they like to do these things themselves.
You can take a moderator's power away, but the DNA is more difficult.But it's much more fun to come up with nefarious reasons than simple ones. Dammit, Nigel. Such a wet blanket.
CmdrThor
Active Member
Seems reasonable that Tesla may have booked space to show Model X at this auto show after it has been revealed at a Tesla event.
I guess founders cars is prodused in the beginning of September, they get them ready in good time before Custmers delivery, to be sure everything is allright.
When the first X is delivered in end of Septemper, Sig cars is produced and the ramp up has started.
The reason I think this, is because Elon have mentioned several times the importans of the ramp up starte before or after the transition to Q4.
I belive they try to get it done before Q4 starts, a wait period to test founders cars should be planer in good time before this.
When the first X is delivered in end of Septemper, Sig cars is produced and the ramp up has started.
The reason I think this, is because Elon have mentioned several times the importans of the ramp up starte before or after the transition to Q4.
I belive they try to get it done before Q4 starts, a wait period to test founders cars should be planer in good time before this.
Nigel Tufnel
Member
Also, it is in... Germany.
The only way I'd expect that to make sense is if they launch first in the U.S., say a week earlier, and then subsequently would have a European showing at the fair. Mess with the Germans a little, too.
Seems theoretical, but not impossible.
