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Deliveries are now pushed back? Q4 already had a very optimistic delivery projection.

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Zzzz..., Sep 9, 2014.

  1. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    Deliveries are now pushed back? Q4 already had a very optimistic delivery projection. But all those slippages I quoted below are alarming. I wonder if we are about to hear bad news? Supplier issue or new assembly line need redesign or something like that? May be Tesla will lower Q4 guidance during next call?

    Model S Delivery Update - Page 702

    And many other reports like that.
     
  2. Joel

    Joel Active Member

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    I hate to be the optimist, but I believe this is a very good thing :smile:

    We'll see "next week" at Elon's presentation :smile:
     
  3. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Model S - Sig. 283 EU

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    #3 Right_Said_Fred, Sep 9, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2014
    No moves from 2014 to 2015 reported yet? December is still Q4. It could be they're building European and Asian cars first, to still be able to get them to customers in Q4 despite longer shipping times, and North American cars later, which are faster to deliver and can also still get to customers in Q4.

    One thing is for sure: it will be long hours for the delivery specialists at the end of December.
     
  4. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    I hate to be a pessimist, different personalities I guess :smile:

    Well, slippage has to come from somewhere. Even if current orders have not slipped from 14' to 15', the not yet ordered cars have slipped to 2015. Or it could come from Q3... Something going on not according to previous plan/estimate.
     
  5. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    I think Model X is coming and AWD Model S :)
     
  6. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Active Member

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    thanks for pointing this out Zzzz. Hopefully it is what Fred said, but worth keeping an eye on.
     
  7. PeterW

    PeterW Member

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    Question: Are these pushed back delivery times world wide or mainly North America?

    Remember 35,000 guidance is for cars delivered not cars produced. Making a car for a Chinese customer in December will not help reach 2014 guidance.
     
  8. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    I think they are shuffling around deliveries again and putting cars for international cars on boats again and will make a huge push in Q4 in the US.
     
  9. DaveT

    DaveT Searcher of green pastures

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    +1. This is the most likely explanation. Send all of the cars made in Oct/Nov overseas, and the cars from end of Nov-Dec goes to U.S. customers.
     
  10. Evbwcaer

    Evbwcaer Member

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    I confirmed in early June if I remember right. I was originally told late September, then 9/17, now 9/29.
    The very worst way of viewing my car is 12 days late over 3 to 4 months.

    I don't understand all the fuss, basically they have been on target with the delivery.

    What am I not seeing here and why all the concern?
     
  11. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

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    Don't forget that Tesla's normal operations puts deliveries to countries outside the US (and particular, countries to which delivery takes a long time) at the beginning of each quarter, and deliveries to USA customers at the end of each quarter. This enables Tesla to meet delivery expectations better, as the rest-of-world delivery pipeline is fraught with random transportation delays of all sorts - whereas the USA pipeline is a lot more predictable and controllable.

    It is normal for USA deliveries to occur towards the end, because as manufacturing undertakes a last minute "sprint" to the end, they can actually deliver the cars... and not just manufacture them.

    "Delivery" seems to count a lot more in the quarterly reports than "production" does.

    FYI I have also seen deliveries reported on this forum where the delivery takes place earlier than anticipated. Example -

    September = 3rd month of Q3... customer is in USA
     
  12. maoing

    maoing Active Member

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    I sense TM is planning BIG to beat Q4 guidance by skewing the delivery date between US and overseas market.

    Btw, did we see such push back for Sepember delivery cars? If so, then that might cause trouble for Q3 ER.
     
  13. Zzzz...

    Zzzz... Member

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    Bold and underlining is my edit. But what you personally see have little to do with overall trend. For each person that posted delay from October to December here there are hundreds who have not bother to register with TMC or simply not aware of it. And the number of posts are definitely points out toward general trend. I haven't even quoted all of them in OP. The trend/thread justification is based on more than one report from just one guy complaining about his delivery postponed by less than two weeks as you are implying.

    This could very well be logistics reshuffling as some pointed out. But I do believe it is worth mentioning in this section, even if it is "false alarm" and was caused by foreign markets demand catching up attention of top Tesla management. Mine point is: this is something worth to be aware of early, for a TSLA investor, rather than seeing world through rose glasses. I mean short terms hiccups(not granted this is the one!!!) it is still better to be aware of even if one targets a very long term. It is better to be aware of problems that are affecting company atm, compared to just wearing rose glasses.
     
  14. Eseell

    Eseell Member

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    Except that the expectations that they're setting in the design tool do not align with end-of-quarter in the US. When I initially designed my Model S the design studio said to expect delivery in "Late October." I decided to push it out myself to Q1 2015 for financial reasons, but Tesla should set correct expectations in the design studio if they don't want customers to be disappointed or alarmed when schedules shift, as a push from two months lead time to four months is significant
     
  15. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

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    Fair point
     
  16. hobbes

    hobbes Active Member

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    I have a strange feeling about that, too - but basically following your reasoning, I believe someone who is not pushed back is much less likely to post than someone who is upset. So there is some bias towards bad news here. I do think there are more delays than usually, but it is impossible to say what percentage of deliveries that is, which is what should concern us as investors.
     
  17. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    I do not understand your issue. They told you to expect delivery in October but you pushed it out till next year. They seem pretty flexible to me. What is your issue? How did they not meet your expectation?
     
  18. Eseell

    Eseell Member

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    I'm not talking about me, I'm talking about everyone else who ordered in August/September and had their orders pushed from October/November to December. I only mentioned my order because what the design tool told me is the same thing it told them.
     
  19. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    So you speak for everyone? Through polling or were you elected representative?
     
  20. Vitaman

    Vitaman Member

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    Don't know about everyone, but as an August confirmed order person, Eseell spoke well for me.
     

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