Deliveries have ceased - where are all the cars going?

[eprosenx]

So I was invited and ordered on 4/18. I then got the July pushback email.

I have been watching the tracking spreadsheet and what was originally showing daily progress of deliveries tapered off. A friend who also was invited and ordered on 4/18 got his car (also in Portland). I did not.

The obvious thing here is that Tesla is avoiding delivering the two hundred thousandth car in the USA prior to July 1st. So I get that, but now my question:

Where the heck are all these cars going? Presumably the factory is in full swing again?

It does not appear to me that Canadian deliveries make up for the "missing cars".

Are they sitting in a lot in Fremont? Are they all being pushed out through the distribution system to far-away locations and so they are on trains or transporters? Is Tesla contracting for lots all around the US in the destination cities to store them? Are they stacking up at the delivery centers?

Or is Tesla actually not producing any Model 3 vehicles right now?

It is a mystery to me and I have not seen it discussed here.

My "ask" to Tesla is that now that I am just shy of two months from my configuration date that they at least contact me and setup my delivery for July 1st! (when they originally committed to 3-6 weeks) Come on! They must now have enough cars produced to fulfill all the orders for the folks that have configured their cars and been waiting for two months?

 

[Robert2on]

All good questions. I took delivery in Toronto last Saturday and the various posts have reported 200+ deliveries per day at the International Center location. I saw dozens of deliveries at the same time as mine with upwards of maybe 40+ groups of individuals and families milling about as I was taking delivery and my coordinator was out with another person within 2 minutes of finishing up with me while I was still pulling my hubcaps off. That's just the Toronto delivery center. I was driving east from the city just yesterday and saw a few carriers loaded with mostly Model 3's (and X's) that I can only assume are headed to Montreal (and have a few photos to prove it). I'm only speculating, but if Toronto is delivering about 200 a day, that's say 1200-1400 a week and the rest of the country may be absorbing much of the rest in June with a few still happening in the US of course. They booked the International Center (large conference center) through end of June, so I think this will keep up the rest of the month as long as there is sufficient demand. I expect all attention will be back to US deliveries on July 1 as you state and they will once again forget about Canada in order to maximize the number of rebates available in the US over the next several quarters. The Ontario government is changing over to a leader that isn't keen on the rebates here, so Tesla is focused on getting as many cars through before our $14,000CAD rebate is (speculated to be) cancelled by the new government. I will say, that the frustration you feel melts away once you start driving the car, and I'm sure Tesla is counting on that. Best of luck!

 

[igbright]

I think what’s happening, in part, is that Tesla has made it much harder to track deliveries. They don’t post the VIN until a week before delivery, and you can’t even see it any more through the back-door trick. So people don’t see the VINs, which has resulted in a steep drop in reported VINs on the spreadsheet.

I had the same configuration date - 4/18 - and got the same July pushback email. But I spotted my VIN on 6/3 via the backdoor trick (I think that was the last day that worked) and took delivery yesterday (6/12) in Boston. I asked at the delivery center and mine was one of 5 they delivered yesterday. With just 9 days from VIN to delivery, this was a mad scramble to get everything lined up in time.

At the same time, Bloomberg has just updated its estimated production forecast to over 4,000 a week for the first time. What that’s based on is hard to tell, given no new batch of VINs registered with NHTSA.

So... I don’t think production or deliveries have stopped - far from it - but Tesla is just making it much, much harder to gauge what’s going on.

It would not be unreasonable to expect that they are pushing Canadian deliveries in Q2 and pushing US deliveries to July to make the full $7,500 federal tax credit available for an extra quarter, but I think we just won’t know until they report production in early July...

I totally agree that the frustration melts away once you start driving the car!

 

[Finley&OtisDad]

I think that basically most of what's been shared is generally true; however, I have a few wonderings. It seems reasonable to try and prioritize the rebates as they are in both Canada and the US, after all, by prioritizing owners vs non-owners Tesla seems to be able to differentiate it's delivery and match production accordingly. However, I think the issue is a hallmark of the transition that is occurring for Tesla- a good one from a business standpoint. As someone who checks the spreadsheet at least once a day, I mean no disrespect, but most of us on this forum are more engaged with our car company than 99.9% of other car buyers. Given the anticipation for this car and admiration for the company and CEO, it was reasonable that in the beginning, we would be able to proverbially count noses of car buyers and be reasonably sure we were on pace. However, even in the first two quarters, every invite ultimately was decided to be representative of about 23 others in the wild or so. As weekly production is pushing ever higher, we have to consider that those receiving invites, configuring, receiving delivery etc, aren't nearly as engaged as us or as we would like to be. I think unfortunately the problem isn't production or delivery, but rather data entry. If you consider an initial 500,000 or so reservations. The most engaged buyers being say the top 5% generously and also most likely to be previous owners and members of this forum. We may now be past the point where people we can expect to be entering data would do so. AT this point, I wonder if we, like most company watchers, are starting to have to fall back on quarterly announcements etc, the way they presumably want it (based on VIN change).

 

[bgbolton]

I will be the usual dissenting voice and bust some myths.

Tesla is prioritizing Canada orders and deliveries

I guess Canada has no access to our great America spread sheets

VIN are not appearing until 7 days before delivery

OK but where are the scheduled deliveries that the spread sheet is tracking also? These have fallen off as well.

Tesla is making and stockpiling cars for July

Where? Did they got Boring Co to make them a underground storage? Where are new VIN registrations?

My guess... they produce now a small number of cars and spend time to optimize the line for new speed milestones but without the line ever running at those speeds.

 

[mongo]

Where are new VIN registrations?

Tesla has VINs out to 51,733 registered, plenty of room to back fill. They also do not need to make the VIN live until delivery.

Where? Did they got Boring Co to make them a underground storage?

Off site, last report from the Fremont Lot thread was 10 car carriers loading up.

Canadian representation on Bloomberg and local track may be less than US...

 

[beachbum77]

Tesla has VINs out to 51,733 registered, plenty of room to back fill. They also do not need to make the VIN live until delivery.


Off site, last report from the Fremont Lot thread was 10 car carriers loading up.

Canadian representation on Bloomberg and local track may be less than US...

Ten car carriers are just 100 cars or 20% of a 500 per day production.

The odd thing is the 200K number only applies to deliveries in the U.S. It has nothing to do with limiting production. Tesla right now should have been pumping out cars like crazy ready to get them delivered after July 1, if they have not already delivered #200,000 here in June. But all sites are reporting similar findings except the Bloomberg tracker. It is unclear where they are getting their data. No one reporting on M3OC has received a new invitation to configure since April 28th. Only 23 people are known to have been able to configure a P or AWD model in May and June. Canadian deliveries have slowed way down from the initial push.

 

[mongo]

Ten car carriers are just 100 cars or 20% of a 500 per day production.

The odd thing is the 200K number only applies to deliveries in the U.S. It has nothing to do with limiting production. Tesla right now should have been pumping out cars like crazy ready to get them delivered after July 1, if they have not already delivered #200,000 here in June. But all sites are reporting similar findings except the Bloomberg tracker. It is unclear where they are getting their data. No one reporting on M3OC has received a new invitation to configure since April 28th. Only 23 people are known to have been able to configure a P or AWD model in May and June. Canadian deliveries have slowed way down from the initial push.

Yeah, but the previous peak carrier count was 8, so it's some sort of indication that production may be going at a good clip.

International delivery thread does seem slower.. humm...

 

[adaptabl]

Ten car carriers are just 100 cars or 20% of a 500 per day production.

The odd thing is the 200K number only applies to deliveries in the U.S. It has nothing to do with limiting production. Tesla right now should have been pumping out cars like crazy ready to get them delivered after July 1, if they have not already delivered #200,000 here in June. But all sites are reporting similar findings except the Bloomberg tracker. It is unclear where they are getting their data. No one reporting on M3OC has received a new invitation to configure since April 28th. Only 23 people are known to have been able to configure a P or AWD model in May and June. Canadian deliveries have slowed way down from the initial push.

They may be out of Canadian orders without AWD or SRB.

 

[MP3Mike]

Ten car carriers are just 100 cars or 20% of a 500 per day production.

That was 10 carriers at that instant, not a count of how many have gone through in a day.

 

[MP3Mike]

My guess is that the people obsessed with tracking things may have gotten their cars, with the splitting of the tracking to three different sites/methods now, and with Tesla trying to hide the VIN that people have just generally given up trying to report everything.

I know that none of my friends care anything about tracking or reporting their orders/VINs to the collective sites.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

Simplest answer is likely best - they just aren't making very many cars. Evidence of this from numerous sources:
- No new invitations to configure for almost two months.
- Very few reports of VIN assignment or delivery.
- Tesla reported only 6,000 deliveries in May. (All US.) Inside EVs confirmed this.
- Tesla reports factory shut downs; materials handling issues; and overhaul/construction.
- Reports from factory show not that many cars leaving.
- TMOC showing lots less owners posting.
- Delivery center near my house showing almost no activity.

 

[mongo]

@Sneakerbuddy
Seems like your list is more related to not crossing 200k than it is support for lower production.

- No new invitations to configure for almost two months. Deliveries != production
- Very few reports of VIN assignment or delivery. Deliveries != production
- Tesla reported only 6,000 deliveries in May. (All US.) Inside EVs confirmed this. Tesla does not report monthly deliveries
- Tesla reports factory shut downs; materials handling issues; and overhaul/construction. Which has already passed
- Reports from factory show not that many cars leaving. What reports? Last from our regular contributor showed 10 carriers
- TMOC showing lots less owners posting.
- Delivery center near my house showing almost no activity. Again, that is deliveries, not production

 

[RubberToe]

Simplest answer is likely best - they just aren't making very many cars.

Tesla's survival as a company depends on ramping Model 3 production and being profitable later this year. Elon stated this and everyone knows this.

So if Tesla isn't "making very many cars" like you are speculating, why do you think that is given the above?

Try this on for size, from Zacks...

The most recent news is that an analyst conducted his own survey of 20 Tesla sales centers and found a large reported increase in recent Model 3 deliveries. This new information convinced him to raise his estimate for Model 3 deliveries in Q2 from 20,000 to 30,000.

Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Tesla

So I agree that the simplest answer is likely the best, with the simplest answer being that someone who actually does real research for a living is seeing increased Model 3 deliveries. Contrast this with a long winded series of speculation by a short Tesla troll who comes to the opposite conclusion

RT

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

@Sneakerbuddy
Seems like your list is more related to not crossing 200k than it is support for lower production.

- No new invitations to configure for almost two months. Deliveries != production
- Very few reports of VIN assignment or delivery. Deliveries != production
- Tesla reported only 6,000 deliveries in May. (All US.) Inside EVs confirmed this. Tesla does not report monthly deliveries
- Tesla reports factory shut downs; materials handling issues; and overhaul/construction. Which has already passed
- Reports from factory show not that many cars leaving. What reports? Last from our regular contributor showed 10 carriers
- TMOC showing lots less owners posting.
- Delivery center near my house showing almost no activity. Again, that is deliveries, not production

Tesla did show a graph at s/h meeting with market share percentages through May. Several people backed into the delivery numbers based on that graph and the well-known deliveries of the vehicles used for comparison. It also matched exactly the InsideEV estimate and the TMOC estimates for May. So, May deliveries of around 5,800 or so is pretty much a lock.

Earlier this year, there was a pretty standard progression of invitiation, VIN assignment, delivery. Now we see invitations at zero, VIN assignments sparse, and deliveries also very thin.

10 carriers of trucks is what, 80 cars? If they are hitting targets at all, we would see 2,000 S/X and 3,000 M3 leaving the factory per week. Thats more like 80 trucks per day. If the shipping guys work 40 hours per week, it would be 15 trucks every hour, one every four minutes.

I certainly agree that deliveries is not same as production. But if you believe the deliveries estimates and the production estimates, then you have to account for 10,000 M3 in inventory. That is not reasonable. Where would 10,000 cars be held? Why arent they getting ready to have huge delivery events in early July? That delivery volume would apparently overwhelm their limited delivery capacity anyway.

 

[mongo]

Tesla did show a graph at s/h meeting with market share percentages through May. Several people backed into the delivery numbers based on that graph and the well-known deliveries of the vehicles used for comparison. It also matched exactly the InsideEV estimate and the TMOC estimates for May. So, May deliveries of around 5,800 or so is pretty much a lock.

Earlier this year, there was a pretty standard progression of invitiation, VIN assignment, delivery. Now we see invitations at zero, VIN assignments sparse, and deliveries also very thin.

10 carriers of trucks is what, 80 cars? If they are hitting targets at all, we would see 2,000 S/X and 3,000 M3 leaving the factory per week. Thats more like 80 trucks per day. If the shipping guys work 40 hours per week, it would be 15 trucks every hour, one every four minutes.

I certainly agree that deliveries is not same as production. But if you believe the deliveries estimates and the production estimates, then you have to account for 10,000 M3 in inventory. That is not reasonable. Where would 10,000 cars be held? Why arent they getting ready to have huge delivery events in early July? That delivery volume would apparently overwhelm their limited delivery capacity anyway.

Good point on the back calculated May numbers,

The 10 carriers were there simultaneously, previous peak seen was 8.

Could be the SpaceX/ Tesla employees wanted P or AWD, that would simplify delivery in July and not hit the standard channels..

Factory production is a separate thing from deliveries, If there is on the ground data showing that Fremont is not churning out 3's then that is definitive, but trying to say what the factory is doing based on what is happening with deliveries/ invites is not reliable. We know there are places to store 100's of thousands of cars, 10 or 20k across the country is not infeasible.

 

[MIT_S60]

They'll all appear on July 1st so that Tesla hits 200k vehicles in Q3 as opposed to Q2 for the full federal tax credit to be in effect until the end of the year.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

They'll all appear on July 1st so that Tesla hits 200k vehicles in Q3 as opposed to Q2 for the full federal tax credit to be in effect until the end of the year.

If that was true, they would be telling lots of people now about their VINs. Cars would be showing up in holding lots near their final destinations. Tesla would be encouraging those customers to get their financing and insurance lined up, etc. Its not like they can just tell thousands and thousands of people in late June to come in to Tesla in early July and just plop the money down and pick up the car and drop off a check.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

Good point on the back calculated May numbers,

The 10 carriers were there simultaneously, previous peak seen was 8.

Could be the SpaceX/ Tesla employees wanted P or AWD, that would simplify delivery in July and not hit the standard channels..

Factory production is a separate thing from deliveries, If there is on the ground data showing that Fremont is not churning out 3's then that is definitive, but trying to say what the factory is doing based on what is happening with deliveries/ invites is not reliable. We know there are places to store 100's of thousands of cars, 10 or 20k across the country is not infeasible.

8 carriers was when, during May? That was consistent with 6,000 deliveries during a month. So, sure, deliveries are up 25% in June.

I dont think they could casually store thousands of cars all around the country and not get noticed. I mean they could but then someone would find and report a lot in LA or Dallas that had hundreds of new M3s on it. I think crowdsourcing would pick it up.

There is no ground data that I know of that is reporting reliable production numbers. But all the other tea leaves point to the same thing...not not piling up inventory of finished goods, not assigning VINs, not delivering cars, not taking new reservations = not making many cars.

 

[daver6640]

I like the title of this thread. If Tesla is producing so many cars where are they? I would imagine going to Canada and few deliveries in the U.S.
I think most people are in agreement that Tesla is intentionally delaying hitting 200k deliveries in Q2. With this in mind Tesla should start assigning VINS to people back East who have been waiting for April Configs due to the time it takes to deliver the cars. I am not sure how long it takes for the cars to arrive from Fremont to back East. If they start assigning VINS then delivery could happen in July.

For West coast or closer to the factory perhaps the last week of June might make sense for VIN assignments.