Deliveries have ceased - where are all the cars going?

[Sneakerbuddy]

If the 6000 produced in June so far is accurate (which is 3000/week, so it's probably close) then we know where all of the cars are going. With the big boost in deliveries to Canada lately that paired with the ongoing limited deliveries in the U.S. could easily account for the current production. 3000 cars spread across the whole North American continent isn't really that many in the grand scheme of things, and it's easy to forget that probably only about 1% of all Tesla customers are on this forum.

The ramp up at the end of this month with the new line is really what's going to make a big impact in the weeks ahead. I feel it will probably be the difference in me getting the car in early July or late July/early August. As so many of you know this waiting-after-configuration is by far the worst part of the last 2+ years of waiting! I still haven't even seen my 'edit design' option disappear yet!

The spreadsheets from this forum report - of the 462 Canadian reservation holders in the sample - 425 of them (92%) have been offered a chance to order their M3. 148 of those have received a VIN number and 90 of those have received their car. From that sample, they project that around 1000 Canadians have received their car out of 1,500 who wanted a first production model.

This data implies that until they offer the $35K standard model, or a AWD standard model, the Canadian market is satiated. If you dont believe me, please dont hate the messenger. Go to the M3 spreadsheets and prove me wrong. Find a Canadian reservation holder who is ready to pay for the current production but hasnt had a chance to buy it yet. I dont think he is out there....

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

According to Tesla... They have approx 74 service centers in the USA.... So, that would mean allot more cars per location...

Agree - please post if you know of a service center that is moving 50 cars a week.....

 

[dsvick]

According to Tesla... They have approx 74 service centers in the USA.... So, that would mean allot more cars per location...

Agree - please post if you know of a service center that is moving 50 cars a week.....

That's service centers, they have a lot more than that when you add in showrooms and delivery locations that are not also service centers. From what I've read in other places it is over 200 locations.

 

[Oldschool496]

South Florida last week VIN 17,XXX waiting for delivery or customer to come and get it, Paper tag in place ready to go.
I think most deliveries to Canada to keep the Rebate maximum at 7500 for all Tesla's purchased into the next quarter for sure.

It just makes sense. Model 3 is not the only car to be considered in the game.

 

[Chris350]

Where are the cars going????

Should be asking "Where are the new invites????"....

The backlog of April invites should be satisfied with the delivery dates in late June / early July...

Something ain't right that no new invites haven't been issued...

Just sayin...

 

[MP3Mike]

Should be asking "Where are the new invites????"....

The backlog of April invites should be satisfied with the delivery dates in late June / early July...

Something ain't right that no new invites haven't been issued...

I'm pretty sure that Tesla said that the take rate on the last batch of invites was higher than expected, so they probably don't need to send any more invites just yet.

 

[Gravelpeople]

Where are the cars going????

Should be asking "Where are the new invites????"....

The backlog of April invites should be satisfied with the delivery dates in late June / early July...

Something ain't right that no new invites haven't been issued...

Just sayin...

We just received an email advising that our 3 is in Calgary and a shipment of cars to Manitoba will leave on Monday.
Invited March 23, 2018, configured March 26th.

My wife is thrilled.

I am also happy because I hope she will give me back my Model S.

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

I'm pretty sure that Tesla said that the take rate on the last batch of invites was higher than expected, so they probably don't need to send any more invites just yet.

Wait a minute bro...the last invites for a model 3 was April 18, That’s nine weeks ago. If they were making an average of 3,000 cars a week, that would be 27,000 deliverable cars since then. Even worse, of the 3,000 people in the tracking spreadsheet who were holding a configuration on May 1, only 725 (25%) have been delivered their car. So, to satisfy all the configuration holders, they need another 3 x 9 weeks which equals six more months!!! They may have over-invited, but what they really did is they way underproduced their expectations on 4/18. Bloomberg has production down around 1500 per week these days, and the TMOC spreadsheet is just as bad.

 

[kengchang]

Wait a minute bro...the last invites for a model 3 was April 18, That’s nine weeks ago. If they were making an average of 3,000 cars a week, that would be 27,000 deliverable cars since then. Even worse, of the 3,000 people in the tracking spreadsheet who were holding a configuration on May 1, only 725 (25%) have been delivered their car. So, to satisfy all the configuration holders, they need another 3 x 9 weeks which equals six more months!!! They may have over-invited, but what they really did is they way underproduced their expectations on 4/18. Bloomberg has production down around 1500 per week these days, and the TMOC spreadsheet is just as bad.

Tesla was only doing 2K/week in April prior to the shutdown and recently just hit 500/day on all parts with the second shutdown. Where did you get your 3000/week for the past 9 weeks?

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

Tesla was only doing 2K/week in April prior to the shutdown and recently just hit 500/day on all parts with the second shutdown. Where did you get your 3000/week for the past 9 weeks?

Extrapolated between the claimed 2500/week at 3/31 and current almost there of 5,000 per week. Maybe not quite 3,000 per week on average but they would be close by now if they were making the implied numbers.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Extrapolated between the claimed 2500/week at 3/31 and current almost there of 5,000 per week. Maybe not quite 3,000 per week on average but they would be close by now if they were making the implied numbers.

Wow, that's some really, really bad math. Based on numbers you make up yourself, by doing a straight line in spite of some fairly good data otherwise (starting with Bloomberg but also there's been really solid news of Tesla's planned turn-arounds to built out production capabilities) you assume Tesla sent that many invites. Then you also assume the last 2 months production rate will be the same going 6 months into the future. Then....wow.

 

[Forcelite]

I really think they are holding on to cars for a July delivery. They have never waited this long for the next round of invites and it’s been 10 weeks since the early April invites that kept going through the month (then stopped). That should be at least 20,000 cars. I am super convinced they will invite another batch before July, and this batch will be delivered in a much more timely manner. We will see.
Force

 

[ℬête Noire]

I'm pretty sure that Tesla said that the take rate on the last batch of invites was higher than expected, so they probably don't need to send any more invites just yet.

The April 18 invites or the AWD invites in May?

 

[Forcelite]

The awd invites where only a few I believe. April invites was what Elon was saying people configured in large numbers.

 

[kengchang]

They look lost...….

Source: r/teslamotors - Biggest Model 3 meet!

 

[Sneakerbuddy]

They look lost...….

Source: r/teslamotors - Biggest Model 3 meet!

Wow -cool photo. First I have seen or heard of this lot. Looks like a full days production...

 

[wdolson]

I've been watching this site to see if the new paved area to the north starts filling up. So far no cars there:
https://www.buildingtesla.com/

I would expect right now the cars are mostly piling up near their destinations and some are going to stores for demos, test drive cars, and possibly service loaners. I would expect Tesla could find some lots that are under utilized and rent them. One place would be football stadiums that aren't used for baseball or some other events. The parking lots in those places would be unused this time of year. Various car transportation rail yards may also have space to store cars short term. Some Tesla stores and service centers may have enough space to store some cars.

SpaceX has a rocket test site in McGregor, TX. That site isn't as watched as the GigaFactory and it's remote. They could store a lot of cars there and few would know.

Ultimately this pause in deliveries is a good thing for a larger number of people. It means Tesla is trying to maximize the tax incentive. But it is hard on those waiting for delivery. I went through the wait two years ago.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

They look lost...….

Source: r/teslamotors - Biggest Model 3 meet!

Makes you want to adopt all of them

 

[Mrr82]

Extrapolated between the claimed 2500/week at 3/31 and current almost there of 5,000 per week. Maybe not quite 3,000 per week on average but they would be close by now if they were making the implied numbers.

They didn’t claim 2.5k. They claimed 2k. They then followed it with 2.1 and 2.2k first 2 weeks of April.,

 

[electracity]

Isn't the most likely answer to the lack of invites a high take rate on old invites due to now offering AWD? Plenty of people have old invites and chose not to immediately configure.

Tesla may be currently stockpiling inventory, but more likely they are prepping for a big July push of finished vehicles. Q2 financials are likely bad with the layoff write offs. Musk may plan to announce big July production numbers before releasing the bad Q2 results.

If Q2 is going to be bad anyways, Tesla may have a disincentive to finish vehicles in June. Having a lot of vehicle in process at the end of June makes for great July numbers.