Delivery Date Change

[jerry33]

These changing delivery dates despite extremely low volumes suggests there may be concerns about quality.

I'm thinking that if you are starting a new production line and don't have concerns about quality you have a big problem. There are just so many things that can go wrong, and sometimes you don't see them--even though they are there--until you've had a chance to step back. Kind of like typos in these posts.

 

[Larry Chanin]

I'm thinking that if you are starting a new production line and don't have concerns about quality you have a big problem. There are just so many things that can go wrong, and sometimes you don't see them--even though they are there--until you've had a chance to step back. Kind of like typos in these posts.

Hi Jerry.

Well stated.

I corrected my typo. :redface: I guess I should maintain a low post volume and not ramp up my postings until I get my typos under control. :wink:

Larry

 

[napabill]

One thing that hasn't been brought up yet is the possibility that Tesla will produce cars and hold them in their factory for a few weeks before shipping them out. For QC reasons, or to compare cars between other cars. It is hard to determine if you are producing identical units when you only make a couple a day.

They could make 500 signatures and then start shipping the first ones out.

I am not saying I believe this but I have worked for manufacturers that have done exactly this. You make a whole bunch of product and hold it "just in case" I could see Tesla ramping up production, and trickeling deliveries while they build up a temporary inventory. If any of the first 10-100 people find a problem they can fix cars without sending out a ranger.

Of course having over 4 million sq ft of unused factory space might make this possible.

 

[spatterso911]

Interesting that in the So long Bradenton thread, BenB left for Tesla to become a delivery specialist. He said training would be 6-8 weeks starting July 2. Doesn't that suggest that deliveries will begin sometime mid August??

 

[Larry Chanin]

Interesting that in the So long Bradenton thread, BenB left for Tesla to become a delivery specialist. He said training would be 6-8 weeks starting July 2. Doesn't that suggest that deliveries will begin sometime mid August??

I'm not sure how much to read into that information. Obviously Tesla has to staff up before deliveries occur. Ben was also trained in the retail area. He can help out in the store while waiting for delivery assignments.

Ben wrote that on June 11th. The delivery slippages were reported after that timeframe.

Larry

 

[spatterso911]

I'm not sure how much to read into that information. Obviously Tesla has to staff up before deliveries occur. Ben was also trained in the retail area. He can help out in the store while waiting for delivery assignments.

Ben wrote that on June 11th. The delivery slippages were reported after that timeframe.

Larry

Agreed, just felt it made me go "Hmmm!, interesting"

 

[joefee]

Interesting that in the So long Bradenton thread, BenB left for Tesla to become a delivery specialist. He said training would be 6-8 weeks starting July 2. Doesn't that suggest that deliveries will begin sometime mid August??

Other staff could have already been trained.

 

[NigelM]

My paperwork listed August 15th.
SSL 180. I spoke with a rep first and then a 'delivery specialist'.

I'm SSL 183 and my MVPA said "September"; I've not been informed of any changes whatsoever...in fact the implications have always been that they are on schedule. I do just wonder if with the very early cars Tesla was playing optimistic.

 

[NigelM]

Other staff could have already been trained.

Dania Beach has other staff who could do deliveries. I think Ben will be a good addition to their team, but if he's the only Delivery Specialist in Florida let's hope he isn't planning on sleeping and he'll need his own hyperloop to get around. :wink:

 

[Arnold Panz]

I'm SSL 183 and my MVPA said "September"; I've not been informed of any changes whatsoever...in fact the implications have always been that they are on schedule. I do just wonder if with the very early cars Tesla was playing optimistic.

I think Zythryn got some bad information somewhere. My suggestion for Zythryn would be to ask for a revised pre-MVPA with the new expected delivery date on it. I don't think whoever he spoke to knew what they were talking about. Maybe they didn't realize he was a Sig Special? We'll see what happens on Wednesday if Tesla announces production delays. If they don't, I think whatever date is on your pre-MVPA should still be good. This is the only person I've heard of with a reasonable story about a production delay, but it just doesn't make any sense in the grand scheme of things. Tesla will get killed if, within 4 weeks of being due to deliver to someone their car, they delay it by over a month.

 

[NigelM]

Norbert had a great find over here.

Elon Musk Talks: 'Several More Years' at the Helm | PluginCars.com

“We never actually reported what third quarter production will be,” Musk told me. “The only number we talk about is the production target of 5,000 this year. It’s not a demand issue: We have orders for well over 10,000 cars. We’re confident that the 5,000 number will be approximately correct. The production ramp is very narrow as we iron out the supply chain, but it ramps up very quickly. We want to be careful about the quality of each car.”

 

[VolkerP]

Tesla will get killed if, within 4 weeks of being due to deliver to someone their car, they delay it by over a month.

Beg to disagree. A two month delay is not killing Tesla. Some reps will get angry calls from their customers. Since Elon is backing the delay, they have no blame to take. Some customers will drop their reservations. Some will fume but concede. Some will say "I waited ## months, what's another two?". Uh-oh, I feel a poll coming

 

[Arnold Panz]

Beg to disagree. A two month delay is not killing Tesla. Some reps will get angry calls from their customers. Since Elon is backing the delay, they have no blame to take. Some customers will drop their reservations. Some will fume but concede. Some will say "I waited ## months, what's another two?". Uh-oh, I feel a poll coming

I was referencing the market, not customers. Tesla is a public company, and as such needs to be sensitive to perceptions, especially with all the vultures out just waiting for them to fail. Angry customers with signed paperwork promising them a car by a certain month and Tesla missing the mark with hundreds of customers would prove all of the short-sellers right, at least in the short run. The stock plummets, angry shareholders bring a lawsuit and a tailspin ensues. Yes, it's a worse case scenario, but not inconceivable, and I highly doubt that Tesla, if it knows that it's not going to deliver the first 1000 cars when promised, wouldn't have immediately notified everyone.

 

[PhatCat]

...The stock plummets, angry shareholders bring a lawsuit and a tailspin ensues....

And others of us who know better will be waiting to buy.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I am utterly certain that some analyst will ask Elon about the reported delays and slow ramp on the earnings call tomorrow. Let's see what he says. My guess is words to this effect:

"With the delivery of over 20 Founders cars in June and early July, we have been ramping up production slowly to ensure flawless car quality and to incorporate feedback from the initial deliveries. We have also made [NN] cars for test drives and marketing. Once we are completely satisfied with production quality of each car, we will ramp up production rapidly, and so our 5,000 car production target for 2012 is still approximately correct."

 

[ckessel]

Angry customers with signed paperwork promising them a car by a certain month and Tesla missing the mark with hundreds of customers...

How's that any different than my pre-orders on Amazon continually ending up pushed out and late? Do those vendors have hordes of customers suing them?

 

[SigS905]

I've always believed that as long as they are ramped up by Ovtober 15th, they can produce 5000+ cars. At 10 cars/hour with an 8 hour shift working 6 days a week Tesla can produce 4800 cars. Not sure how many would be delivered.

 

[Arnold Panz]

How's that any different than my pre-orders on Amazon continually ending up pushed out and late? Do those vendors have hordes of customers suing them?

Not customers suing, but shareholders. Tesla now has probably over 1000 people with pre-MVPA paperwork giving them a month for expected delivery. Those pre-MVPAs have language allowing Tesla to postpone delivery, so nothing customers can do.

But, if Tesla has known for some time that they will be unable to deliver those vehicles, and the subsequent delay leads to enough negative publicity regarding Tesla that the stock drops, shareholders can try to make a claim against Tesla for "hiding" material information, and their actions led to them losing money. It's basic corporate governance -- get any bad news out as quickly as possible. That's why any time a company thinks it won't hit it's earnings guidance it announces that mid-quarter.

I'm not suggesting this will happen, but the mere possibility actually says to me that the panic around delivers being uniformly delayed is very possibly exaggerated. I would expect a company like Teslamotorsclub if they knew deliveries were going to be late, to tell customers that once they knew. Telling people at the past minute will only make things worse, and that's not their style at all.

 

[Citizen-T]

Not customers suing, but shareholders. Tesla now has probably over 1000 people with pre-MVPA paperwork giving them a month for expected delivery. Those pre-MVPAs have language allowing Tesla to postpone delivery, so nothing customers can do.

But, if Tesla has known for some time that they will be unable to deliver those vehicles, and the subsequent delay leads to enough negative publicity regarding Tesla that the stock drops, shareholders can try to make a claim against Tesla for "hiding" material information, and their actions led to them losing money. It's basic corporate governance -- get any bad news out as quickly as possible. That's why any time a company thinks it won't hit it's earnings guidance it announces that mid-quarter.

I'm not suggesting this will happen, but the mere possibility actually says to me that the panic around delivers being uniformly delayed is very possibly exaggerated. I would expect a company like Teslamotorsclub if they knew deliveries were going to be late, to tell customers that once they knew. Telling people at the past minute will only make things worse, and that's not their style at all.

Eh, they report tomorrow. Might be in a quite period right now. Not certain, but they might actually not be allowed to make those sorts of announcements right now. I'm a shareholder, and I'm certain that I don't need to know that 10% of this years (well half a years) production might be shifted from Q3 to Q4. This kind of news only benefits short sellers and day traders, not investors.

Now, if they aren't going to hit their 5,000 car target by the end of the year by some significant number of cars, then that is something I'd like to hear about as soon as possible.

 

[Zythryn]

Personally I have no issues with a 2 month delay. However, I do expect communication from the company.
Nigel, I didn't get the new mid Oct date until I called Tesla.
At that time I was told I should expect a call to set up my delivery place and time about 30 days prior to my MVPA date. Of course, I was having this conversation less than 30 days before that date, so I asked for confirmation of the rough date.
I was transferred (this was all by email) to a delivery specialist who gave me the revised Oct date.
I have taken the suggestions to double check this information and am awaiting a response. I do strongly suspect that September is more likely IF Tesla is still shooting for 5k vehicles produced this year.
We will have to see.