Delivery dates just bumped up!

[Robert831]

I just checked my delivery dates (reserved July 9th, 2017; I live in California). Originally, the standard battery was estimated at July-Sept 2018. Now it says May-July 2018. Also, the AWD option changed from Dec 2018-Feb 2018 to Nov 2018-Jan 2018.

I wonder whether this is indicative of canceled orders? Or could it mean their production ramp-up is looking better than anticipated? I'm thinking more likely it's canceled orders, considering all the whining I've seen.

This could also mean an extra $3750 in my pocket! I'm getting the Standard battery.

 

[MXWing]

Everyone cancelled. Maybe just a few dozen of us left.

 

[sweter]

They wouldn't be changing ramp estimations day by day. Probably until late Q3 they won't have any idea how this is gonna roll, so probably won't communicate it at all.

 

[Zythryn]

I am sure there have been some cancelations.
However, I suspect the main reason is that they are finding more.people are ordering the AWD or performance models.
As more people save their selections their estimates will get more accurate.

 

[bonaire]

The battery upgrade alone isn't a $14k upgrade, on its own, is it? Is it possible the "First Production" pricing has an added cost for those who want to be "First!" with their purchases? The larger battery may be useful for range - but I would have to believe there are a lot of people wanting the base model because of the price, and the out of pocket costs being so low once you apply the federal tax credit and local state rebates. Is the First Production taking into account that there is $10k on the hood of the initial batches to CA drivers and to other states like Colorado and a few others? Given the expected sales, how many $35k base models will be eligible for the Fed Tax Credit?

The larger battery may also be part of the need to fulfill the large purchase order of battery cells with Panasonic, which was over 1.82 Billion cells from 2014-2017. This is approximately 70,000 85kWh packs for each of those years. In terms of total cell purchase, the larger packs delivered during 2017 helps get through that minimum purchase contract.

 

[a.void]

Seeing the same on my end. My standard battery was July-Sep '18 which put the $7500 out of play. Now showing the May-Jul '18 date.
Although, this still puts the standard at risk of missing the $7500 ($3750 at risk) ... It would surely suck to order with the understanding that you will see it in time and then get bumped into another rebate timeline. I can already my wife having a nuclear meltdown if that happened.

 

[KarenRei]

The battery upgrade alone isn't a $14k upgrade, on its own, is it?

Battery upgrade is $9k. Premium interior / winter features / glass roof / etc is $5k. That's the only configuration they're selling atm.

 

[bonaire]

Seeing the same on my end. My standard battery was July-Sep '18 which put the $7500 out of play. Now showing the May-Jul '18 date.
Although, this still puts the standard at risk of missing the $7500 ($3750 at risk) ... It would surely suck to order with the understanding that you will see it in time and then get bumped into another rebate timeline. I can already my wife having a nuclear meltdown if that happened.

I would estimate that once 2018 starts, standard battery will start to be pulled back nearer to Q1 2018. Many will want Std battery + AWD without the autopilot. For me, I would actually want Front wheel drive, no autopilot and std battery (as long as per-use supercharging is included) - $35k with the credits and rebates is compelling. Personally, I do not want any form of Autopilot.

 

[KarenRei]

BTW... I've seen it posted before, but I didn't bookmark it - how does one get to the URL to choose their base configuration and see the delivery date? I totally forgot it

 

[KarenRei]

For me, I would actually want Front wheel drive, no autopilot and std battery (as long as per-use supercharging is included) - $35k with the credits and rebates is compelling. Personally, I do not want any form of Autopilot.

You mean RWD? And yeah, I'm in the same boat as you - no interest in autopilot. Although I'm randomly tempted by the $5k extras package (I can do things like seat heaters aftermarket, "autoconfiguring seats and mirrors" and the like are IMHO a gimmick, etc... but that glass roof would be nice), AWD (we have a long, wet (slippery) winter here, and lots of gravel roads... plus it means maybe 15km more range), and the larger battery (not so much for range, but longevity, the potential to supercharge faster if Tesla ever comes here... and possibly the ability to pull of a stunt of driving entirely around the country on a single charge by slowing down to turtle speeds ). But I may end up just going with no extras. I try not to think about it too much yet because I'm sure Tesla will change up its offerings by the time my number comes up.

 

[bonaire]

You mean RWD? And yeah, I'm in the same boat as you - no interest in autopilot. Although I'm randomly tempted by the $5k extras package (I can do things like seat heaters aftermarket, "autoconfiguring seats and mirrors" and the like are IMHO a gimmick, etc... but that glass roof would be nice), AWD (we have a long, wet (slippery) winter here, and lots of gravel roads... plus it means maybe 15km more range), and the larger battery (not so much for range, but longevity, the potential to supercharge faster if Tesla ever comes here... and possibly the ability to pull of a stunt of driving entirely around the country on a single charge by slowing down to turtle speeds ). But I may end up just going with no extras. I try not to think about it too much yet because I'm sure Tesla will change up its offerings by the time my number comes up.

I mean FWD - Front, not RWD. The reason? Rain/snow climate. RWD only in a snowy climate is not what us northern-climate drivers want to have So. Cal, Florida and everywhere south of say Tennessee would be fine with RWD. The consumers north of say North Carolina may want to have the benefits of FWD. This loses some space in the frunk, however, and the rear trunk (not being a hatch) is not a lot of space versus the MS which uses a hatch design and has more utility. China and southern Euro countries might go with some RWD - but Norway will surely want DWD eventually. The DWD was great for all weather driving - and I assume the RWD positioning is for the performance impacts and similarity to the BMW 3-series. However, the consumer marketplace is fully saturated with the safety aspects of FWD cars in all weather conditions. Snowtires such as Blizzaks might work out for RWD, but for me, I think they are missing out on not also adding FWD. Maybe in the Model Y ?

 

[Zythryn]

I mean FWD - Front, not RWD. The reason? Rain/snow climate. RWD only in a snowy climate is not what us northern-climate drivers want to have So. Cal, Florida and everywhere south of say Tennessee would be fine with RWD. The consumers north of say North Carolina may want to have the benefits of FWD. This loses some space in the frunk, however, and the rear trunk (not being a hatch) is not a lot of space versus the MS which uses a hatch design and has more utility. China and southern Euro countries might go with some RWD - but Norway will surely want DWD eventually. The DWD was great for all weather driving - and I assume the RWD positioning is for the performance impacts and similarity to the BMW 3-series. However, the consumer marketplace is fully saturated with the safety aspects of FWD cars in all weather conditions. Snowtires such as Blizzaks might work out for RWD, but for me, I think they are missing out on not also adding FWD. Maybe in the Model Y ?

There will be no FWD, and I doubt there will be as the benefits no longer apply.
I have driven electric RWD since the winter of 2010. The RWD Tesla's handled Minnesota winters bettter than any FWD car I have ever driven.
Between the low center of gravity, and lack of a large mass under the hood, I don't believe there is any benefit to FWD and in some cases, the RWD is superior in terms of safety.

However, it will take people time to learn this and accept it. Just as it was a very foreign idea that the AWD would be more efficient, rather than less efficient as it is in ICE vehicles.

 

[MarioOrtegon]

I mean FWD - Front, not RWD. The reason? Rain/snow climate. RWD only in a snowy climate is not what us northern-climate drivers want to have So. Cal, Florida and everywhere south of say Tennessee would be fine with RWD. The consumers north of say North Carolina may want to have the benefits of FWD. This loses some space in the frunk, however, and the rear trunk (not being a hatch) is not a lot of space versus the MS which uses a hatch design and has more utility. China and southern Euro countries might go with some RWD - but Norway will surely want DWD eventually. The DWD was great for all weather driving - and I assume the RWD positioning is for the performance impacts and similarity to the BMW 3-series. However, the consumer marketplace is fully saturated with the safety aspects of FWD cars in all weather conditions. Snowtires such as Blizzaks might work out for RWD, but for me, I think they are missing out on not also adding FWD. Maybe in the Model Y ?

This has been addressed before in other threads but in summary the reason why ICE FWD drive cars behave better on rain/snow is because the weight of the vehicle is mostly on the front (due to the gas engine) and that weight helps the front wheels to gain more traction.
In the case of EV's the weight is pretty evenly distributed so there is no substantial reason for any manufacturer to include an FWD on an EV.
Also there are customers on Canada and Norway that are using RWD Teslas and since It's better than some ICE AWD vehicles, so I wouldn't worry for a future FWD EV from any company.

 

[Visscher]

They need a Canada edition. We get six months of snow a year with three foot dumps at a time where I live. So AWD with heated seats on an otherwise base model would be perfect for me. Even with short range I'm only a couple hundred km from my nearest supercharger.

 

[KarenRei]

They need a Canada edition. We get six months of snow a year with three foot dumps at a time where I live. So AWD with heated seats on an otherwise base model would be perfect for me. Even with short range I'm only a couple hundred km from my nearest supercharger.

I'd be more concerned about the ground clearance in the snow. At least Tesla uses metal aero belly pans (in order to protect the battery pack), unlike the plastic ones on my Insight that were always getting sheared off in the winter until I finally gave up replacing them.

Heated seats can be gotten aftermarket for ~$50 USD (plus installation). Not worth $5k if that's all you want! I find it kind of sad though that if you want a glass roof you have to choose a $5k options package. Didn't it use to be $1,5k on the S?