Delivery Estimator CHANGED...

[mcghee33]

Yes mine did change a little. AWD went from Sept-Nov to July-Aug. SO it improved a few months.
Now the question is whether or not these estimates really did move up?
Was there an error with the calculations yesterday (totally plausible)?
Are they changing on the fly based on users selections?
Or did Tesla move them up because they saw many of us were thinking of purchasing RWD when we were planning on buying AWD because we couldn't wait

 

[Sparky22]

Yes mine did change a little. AWD went from Sept-Nov to July-Aug. SO it improved a few months.
Now the question is whether or not these estimates really did move up?
Was there an error with the calculations yesterday (totally plausible)?
Are they changing on the fly based on users selections?
Or did Tesla move them up because they saw many of us were thinking of purchasing RWD when we were planning on buying AWD because we couldn't wait

Possibly a lot of people canceled their reservation. The cost of the battery and all of the extra features are too high for some folks.

 

[rajpatel486]

Possibly a lot of people canceled their reservation. The cost of the battery and all of the extra features are too high for some folks.

That might be true, I'm on the east coast and the dual motor date moved up from Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 to Oct 2018 - Dec 2018.

All the other dates have remained the same.

 

[PhatCat]

Or possibly given the propensity of people to whine, Tesla used very conservative estimates for the first iteration and are adjusting them in now that they see the actual distribution. Maybe a lot fewer wanted base than they originally allocated.

Oh wait, this can't be true because that would mean Tesla has learned to manage people's expectations. Nah, must be some way they are screwing people.

 

[Lunarx]

Interesting, since this morning....
AWD changed to July-Sept from Sept-Nov.
Hoping that's still good for the Tax Credit.

 

[mcghee33]

Possibly a lot of people canceled their reservation. The cost of the battery and all of the extra features are too high for some folks.

That is a very true possibility. Elon told the press on Friday that they were over 500K reservations at that point too, so some cancellations may be helping some of us.
But I am wondering if the estimates are dynamic and many people chose RWD (myself included) because they couldn't wait for AWD, causing the AWD and Base M3 estimates to improve. This will take time to all play out and we will know more every week as more and more people get their M3s.

 

[David L]

Same here. First production and base stayed the same, but D moved from Sept-Nov --> July-Sept. May there's hope in getting D after all.

 

[boaterva]

Standard and Dual Motors have both moved up two months, First Production hasn't changed (on both res's). Interesting to see how this changes going forward, as you say, as people either drop out or make choices!

 

[WhiteMountains]

My "my tesla" was redirecting to Canada as well. I would get an error when I would try to save my Model 3 preference. I clicked on the Flag at the bottom (American) and selected US. It changed the url to not redirect. After that, I could save my Model 3 preference.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

My ETA actually moved UP for the AWD... it was previously Aug-Oct 2018 and it it is now Jul-Aug 2018. Woohoo!

 

[JeffK]

My ETA moved up as well... I wish the performance version was listed but I'm hoping it syncs up with dual motors.

 

[smartypnz]

I'm guessing some cancellations but probably not many. Schedule change most likely is the result of more people waiting for base model and AWD. So, less extended batt orders chosen than expected.

 

[N5329K]

My guesstimate has remained stable at March to May 2018. Plenty of time.
Robin

 

[favo]

3/31 line waiter, East Coast, non-owner here, and my ETA for the D also move up from Sep-Nov '18 to Aug-Oct '18. Hoping that the P will not be far behind and at least half the tax credit will still be there.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm guessing some cancellations but probably not many. Schedule change most likely is the result of more people waiting for base model and AWD. So, less extended batt orders chosen than expected.

My guess is more people chose to wait for the AWD model instead of either of the RWD models, so Tesla brought up the production start date of AWD versions because they will be able to get through the RWD backlog sooner than they anticipated before

 

[Stolz25]

My guess is more people chose to wait for the AWD model instead of either of the RWD models, so Tesla brought up the production start date of AWD versions because they will be able to get through the RWD backlog sooner than they anticipated before

This sounds right. My date hasn't changed so it supports this theory.

 

[TEG]

Since the date window always seems 3 months, I think we could shorthand the chart just showing the first possible month.

So, I have some examples like this:

310 220 AWD
Oct Dec Jul : owner Line-wait
Nov Jan Jul : Non-owner Line-wait
Dec Feb Sep : Non-owner Online

The dates for the RWDs seem fairly consistent, but the AWD dates have been moving around.

 

[gregincal]

My AWD went from Jul-Sep to Jun-Aug (3/31 existing owner in California).

 

[jgillispie]

My AWD estimate went from the Oct-Dec '18 to Aug-Oct.

I had initially set my preference to AWD since that was a requirement for me. However losing that much tax credit I decided to switch it to First Producton and live with RWD. Now I'm debating on setting it back. I'm doing some shopping now and a used 70D or 85D is about the same price as the 3 will be with similar options.

 

[TEG]

So are you Oct / Dec / Jun ?