Demand drivers for Tesla / EVs

[sub]

Some of you people sure get to be smart-asses when the stock price goes down. Take a chill, it will come back. And read the context of my post. It was in reply to Drax saying that someone else thinks it's only a matter of people having money to afford a Tesla. That simply is NOT true.

And, obviously, this lady is the norm. If a trip from a decent sized city like Savannah to a large city like Charlotte, where there are reasonable access to SuperChargers, adds 2 hours and 40 minutes, think about what it adds for people traveling in smaller, more remote areas. Not everyone lives in California or New York. Selling 25-30k cars in the US is still a niche market - no matter what anyone thinks. To get to the point where people go to buy a car and simply decide whether the Model S (or X or 3) is the better choice for them without giving much thought that it is an electric car, Tesla has to reduce these increases in travel time. Adding 25-40% to travel times just isn't going to cut it. That was true now AND when the stock price was $275. Sorry.

You're discounting the fact that there is a growing percentage of the population that will deal with the minor inconveniences of a Tesla because they actually care about something more than themselves, this includes me. I wouldn't pay 40k for an ICE vehicle ever again in my life but 100k for a Tesla, I don't have a problem with that. It's been bought up before, there are as many or more people trading up to a Tesla from inexpensive cars as there are from Luxury cars because they see the value and they actually give a damn. Can't believe this conversation is still happening.

The point of my previous smart ass post was exactly that point, relax people. Stocks go up, they go down, they go back up again. Seems a couple people got my joke

 

[Buddyroe]

Dont know anybody that routinely drives more than 50 miles per day.
For long trips most fly. Buy that's just me . I will not
base my investment view on charging time and range.
I will not let the exception be the rule.

Yea, I-95 isn't bumper to bumper 24 hours a day. OK.

 

[Gerasimental]

And, obviously, this lady is the norm..

Really? According to Google maps that is a 3.5 hour drive, with no traffic. is it the norm for people to spend 8 hours a day driving? News to me.

 

[jhm]

I know plenty of people that can afford 10, but aren't even thinking about getting one (other than listening to me tell them how great they are).

I have a neighbor that drives from Savannah, GA (actually 20 miles west of Savannah off I-16) to Charlotte, NC (King's Mountain west of Charlotte actually). I sort of had her thinking she might want one. So, she asked me what she would have to do on her regular trips to Charlotte as far as charging (keeping in mind that she drives between 78-82mph). I had already sold her on the fact that she would never again have to stop at a gas station for her local driving. She was in love with that. So, I checked out her route. She drives from her home to I-95 which is about 25 miles. She then goes north on I-95 to I-26, to I-77 to Charlotte. Basically, she would have to stop at both the Santee Charger and the Charlotte charger. The Santee stop would be about 20 minutes, but the Charlotte charge would need to be a full charge. Keep in mind, she makes this drive both ways the same day. Also, keep in mind that the Santee charger is about 10 miles north of where she normally gets off at I-26. So, not only does she have a 20 minute charge there, but she also has a 20 minute detour. The supercharger in Charlotte is also not on her route. It is a 20 minute detour away. So, there's another 40 minutes (plus at least 40 minutes to charge). The charge at Santee ultimately costs her 40 minutes x 2 (80 minutes). And the Charlotte charge costs her 80 minutes (20 detour time +40 charge time +20 detour time).

So, if she drives a Tesla on these trips, her day will be longer by AT LEAST 2 hours and 40 minutes (minus the 10 minutes it takes her to fill her gas tank now). She looked at me and said, "you're out of your mind."

It's not a question of money - sorry to say.

This illustrates how important it is to develop a dense and well located Supercharging network. Santee and North Charlotte are both poorly located for this trip. It's more important to minimize the detour time than the charging time at this point. Driving out of your way even adds to the charging time since more kWh are required.

Fortunately, Tesla is planning a Columbia, SC Supercharger this year. This station should avoid most of the detour time. Columbia to Kings Mountain is about 120 miles, so round trip she'll need a little more charging. If there is destination charging for her in Kings Mountain that could do it. Otherwise, she'll need another supercharger south or west of Charlotte. Unfortunately, such a location does not seem to be on Tesla's list even in 2016. So your friend may need to wait several years for the Supercharging network to be sufficiently built out for her particular needs. Or maybe a 90D could resolve this once the Columbia station is go.

In every market you'll find situations like this. I have one colleague who would love to buy a Tesla, but must travel for business from Charlotte to Atlanta. Fortunately, the Greenville, SC station is now in construction. So once that is a go, he won't need to put it off any longer.

So the good news here is that there is a developmental path to making this work. The more Teslas there are on the road, the denser the network will become. And this leads to expanding the addressable market. One serious advantage of selling a lot of Gen 3 vehicles will be the scale and density to support a much better Supercharger network. Larger batteries and faster charging will help, but there is no substitute for having a better network.

 

[uselesslogin]

People don't consider best-case scenarios when buying a car. Any car will do the local travel. What they consider is the worse case. They may only drive across 3 states once a year, but they want to know that the car they buy (for $100k) can do it without any worries and without GREAT effort or time. That simply is not the case today.

When you spend $100k on a vehicle, it needs to do EVERYTHING well. Most people aren't like us and consider the trade-offs (ie, never having to stop and get gas again during our daily driving, no oil changes or tuneups). They simply consider whether the car can do everything they need it to (or may need it to). Most people aren't going to buy a car for local driving and a car for that once or twice a year long trip. Nor do they want to have to rent one. A $100k car should be it. And this is not my perspective, this is what every day Joe is saying. Just ask people that don't have a Tesla (that can afford one) and you'll see.

By this logic Tesla should not be selling 12,000 cars per quarter. So it is a pointless argument at this point. Tesla has already shown people will buy their car. Better yet the anecdote you provided about the woman with the inconvenient trip? That won't be so bad if superchargers are added in the right places and maybe she'll buy one. Oh yeah, we know they are working on faster supercharging as well for some future date.

 

[Gerardf]

People don't consider best-case scenarios when buying a car. Any car will do the local travel. What they consider is the worse case. They may only drive across 3 states once a year, but they want to know that the car they buy (for $100k) can do it without any worries and without GREAT effort or time. That simply is not the case today.

When you spend $100k on a vehicle, it needs to do EVERYTHING well. Most people aren't like us and consider the trade-offs (ie, never having to stop and get gas again during our daily driving, no oil changes or tuneups). They simply consider whether the car can do everything they need it to (or may need it to). Most people aren't going to buy a car for local driving and a car for that once or twice a year long trip. Nor do they want to have to rent one. A $100k car should be it. And this is not my perspective, this is what every day Joe is saying. Just ask people that don't have a Tesla (that can afford one) and you'll see.

With all due respect, this is the short term investment thread.

I would also like remind you that Tesla's problem is not demand. Every car Tesla can produce is already sold. Actually for the Model-X at the moment the problem is even to much demand for the short term production rate. So we should actually be happy not every 'average Joe' is already ordering now, they should wait for the GF to come online.

For this type of discussion find a thread to discuss with the people who only have one car as daily driver, customer visits & roadtrips. (I am one of those).

 

[Big-T]

....When you spend $100k on a vehicle, it needs to do EVERYTHING well...

Alright then, I expect the BMW dealer to show me the 7 series off roading it in the mountains. NO? Maybe the Audi 8 would be better? Mercedes S550? I'm running out of 100k cars.....Common, just because a car is expensive doesn't mean it's going to do EVERYTHING well.

 

[Buddyroe]

You're discounting the fact that there is a growing percentage of the population that will deal with the minor inconveniences of a Tesla because they actually care about something more than themselves, this includes me.

Sorry to tell you, but that growing number of the population is VERY, VERY small. In fact, I doubt it is even measurable (given that Tesla's overall growth is hardly measurable against automobile sales as a whole). The truth is this. I am a libertarian-conservative minded person. We live in a neighborhood with about 50-50 liberals to conservatives. While we are politically conservative, we fail to see how that impacts how we feel about the environment (I've never really understood how the environment is political anyway). We do everything we can to help. We rinse all of our food cans, milk containers, etc and recycle them. We go to great effort to recycle anything that can be recycled. In fact, we often have to use our neighbor's recycle bin because ours is full. Which brings me to my next point. That neighbor is a HUGE liberal and rails constantly about the environment - when I mention recycling, they always say it is very important. They bash companies that don't use recyclable materials. Yet, they recycle NOTHING!! They always tell me that they simply don't have time to rinse all the stuff out and segregate the recyclable trash from the non-recyclable. In fact, only one of the liberal leaning families does recycle. And get this, WE are the only family with an EV. My liberal neighbors that care for the environment so much have 3 ICE vehicles and say that EVs simply won't work for their situation. So, what we have in America is one group that doesn't believe in climate change and could care less, and another group that say they care, but is NOT willing to actually DO anything but talk about it. They expect someone else to do it. When I was in Boston a while back (and was driving my EV), I was SO ready to see a bunch of EVs. I mean after all, it's a blue state and all. I saw one! One. I see WAY more in Atlanta than anywhere else. Why? Because people spend their hard earned money on things for reasons other than the environment. People in Atlanta bought a ton of Leafs because of the $5k GA rebate. It simply made economic sense. People may talk a bunch of crap about the environment, but VERY few actually do anything - especially if it means a little sacrifice on their part.

People will buy Teslas in droves when they can do (or nearly do) everything their ICE car can do and they don't have to think about it a lot. If that were not the case, then more people would be buying them than just in the states that have incentives on top of the fed rebate. Besides, a while back, AT&T said that the most visited web site in a Tesla Model S (10 times the national average) was drudgereport.com - an ultra conservative web site. So, I think it is reasonable to say that as many conservatives buy the Model S for economic reasons as environmentalists buy it for environmental reasons. In fact, I wish Musk would stop even mentioning the environment when speaking about Tesla. It's a great car that also happens to be environmentally friendly. Leave it at that.

 

[Buddyroe]

Really? According to Google maps that is a 3.5 hour drive, with no traffic. is it the norm for people to spend 8 hours a day driving? News to me.

Her thought process for buying an EV is the norm. That's why ICE cars are still 99% of all vehicle sales. You do realize that right?

 

[FANGO]

Some of you people sure get to be smart-asses when the stock price goes down. Take a chill, it will come back. And read the context of my post. It was in reply to Drax saying that someone else thinks it's only a matter of people having money to afford a Tesla. That simply is NOT true.

And, obviously, this lady is the norm. If a trip from a decent sized city like Savannah to a large city like Charlotte, where there are reasonable access to SuperChargers, adds 2 hours and 40 minutes, think about what it adds for people traveling in smaller, more remote areas. Not everyone lives in California or New York. Selling 25-30k cars in the US is still a niche market - no matter what anyone thinks. To get to the point where people go to buy a car and simply decide whether the Model S (or X or 3) is the better choice for them without giving much thought that it is an electric car, Tesla has to reduce these increases in travel time. Adding 25-40% to travel times just isn't going to cut it. That was true now AND when the stock price was $275. Sorry.

No, this lady is mythical. No 4 hour trip will have 2h40 added to it. That trip is 251 miles. That requires zero charging. 20 minutes if you want safety. Come on.

And if time is such a factor, take a plane. If it's not, then don't complain about time.

This person is not "the norm" at all. Normal people do not drive 500 miles in a day. You are talking about .01% of the population. I have no idea why anyone is engaging you in your fantastical thought experiment.

 

[Buddyroe]

By this logic Tesla should not be selling 12,000 cars per quarter. So it is a pointless argument at this point. Tesla has already shown people will buy their car. Better yet the anecdote you provided about the woman with the inconvenient trip? That won't be so bad if superchargers are added in the right places and maybe she'll buy one. Oh yeah, we know they are working on faster supercharging as well for some future date.

I agree 100%. I have posted in the past that we need SuperChargers every 50 miles to give people that secure feeling just like in an ICE car. This would cut down on the increased travel time a lot also. But, Tesla chose to spend millions on falcon wing doors that could have been spent on SuperChargers. I really think the chargers would have been WAY more beneficial at this point in Tesla's life than the falcon doors. There are a LOT of people that would buy a Tesla with many, well-placed Superchargers built (someone just referenced a friend in Atlanta that is waiting on Greenville, SC to be finished), but not many people are going to say, I really didn't want a Tesla or an EV, but I REALLY want Falcon wing doors so I'm going to buy a Model X. When you have limited funds, you simply have to make great decisions about how to spend those funds.

 

[Buddyroe]

No, this lady is mythical. No 4 hour trip will have 2h40 added to it. That trip is 251 miles. That requires zero charging. 20 minutes if you want safety. Come on.

And if time is such a factor, take a plane. If it's not, then don't complain about time.

This person is not "the norm" at all. Normal people do not drive 500 miles in a day. You are talking about .01% of the population. I have no idea why anyone is engaging you in your fantastical thought experiment.

Fango, you should really reada the entire post before you reply. The trip is actually 270 miles. When you have to detour 20 miles for one SC and 40 for the other, that makes it 330 miles. And the lady drives almost 80 on average so she will only get about 220 miles of range. And with no charging, how the F will she get back? (even is she COULD make it all the way without charging). Or did you even read the post?

And yes, this lady's question about how long it takes to charge is the norm. That's everyone's first question. I post on a college football forum a lot and when we talk about EVs (Tesla), it's always the first thing they say - traveling in that car is too cumbersome. You guys really need to get out of your little circles and talk to average joe a little. These are the people that aren't buying Teslas that Tesla needs to convince - not you and me.

 

[Gerasimental]

Her thought process for buying an EV is the norm. That's why ICE cars are still 99% of all vehicle sales. You do realize that right?

Sure, but she is very unusual in actually having a good reason to stay ICE. Most people *think* they are in her situation, when really they would probably *save* time with a long range EV.
In the context of your comment, it certainly sounded very much like you were implying that her travelling requirements were the norm, which is wildly untrue. Apologies if I misinterpreted that.

Edit: on topic.

Entry point 208. I'm not worried about this dip at all as nothing has changed wrt to the fundamentals. Only possible near-term catalyst I see is better than expected financials in Q3. I expect higher Model S margins as RHD D models have begin being delivered and there was no end-of-q push at all. Still, that alone will not change sentiment and I expect TSLA to bleed more in Q4.
I'm patiently watching TSLA, following Model X threads for hints of progress, and following sentiment here and on Stocktwits, keeping an eye out for re-entry points to accumulate.

 

[FANGO]

People don't consider best-case scenarios when buying a car. Any car will do the local travel. What they consider is the worse case. They may only drive across 3 states once a year, but they want to know that the car they buy (for $100k) can do it without any worries and without GREAT effort or time. That simply is not the case today.

When you spend $100k on a vehicle, it needs to do EVERYTHING well. Most people aren't like us and consider the trade-offs (ie, never having to stop and get gas again during our daily driving, no oil changes or tuneups). They simply consider whether the car can do everything they need it to (or may need it to). Most people aren't going to buy a car for local driving and a car for that once or twice a year long trip. Nor do they want to have to rent one. A $100k car should be it. And this is not my perspective, this is what every day Joe is saying. Just ask people that don't have a Tesla (that can afford one) and you'll see.

I certainly consider the worst-case scenario. Ever having to stop at a gas station is the worst-case scenario. So I buy a car where I won't ever have to do that.

And this is not my perspective, this is what every day Joe is saying. Just ask people who have any experience whatsoever with an EV and you'll see.

The fact that you're asking people who *don't* have experience with EVs, and thinking that their opinion of how EVs work is more valid than people who *do* have experience driving not just EVs but ICEs, is sort of ridiculous. EV drivers overwhelmingly prefer charging to filling up, and they have tried both. It's pretty clear which is superior.

- - - Updated - - -

And with no charging, how the F will she get back?

Maybe by, I don't know, charging? I count 5 DC fast charge stations in Savannah. 4 within the ring in Charlotte. There isn't "no charging" anywhere. A guy drove a Roadster around the entire world several years ago, no problem, even through Inner Mongolia and the Ural mountains. And there's probably 10-20 times as many chargers now as when he did it.

Do you know anything about EVs? You seem to have a lot of experience talking to people who know nothing about EVs, and know nothing about them yourself, and are providing a lot of "answers" to these people despite not knowing anything about them. If you did know anything about them, you would know that charging instead of fueling is a benefit, not a drawback. And you would not make up ridiculous numbers like needing to charge 2h40 on a 250 mile drive.

 

[uselesslogin]

I agree 100%. I have posted in the past that we need SuperChargers every 50 miles to give people that secure feeling just like in an ICE car. This would cut down on the increased travel time a lot also. But, Tesla chose to spend millions on falcon wing doors that could have been spent on SuperChargers. I really think the chargers would have been WAY more beneficial at this point in Tesla's life than the falcon doors. There are a LOT of people that would buy a Tesla with many, well-placed Superchargers built (someone just referenced a friend in Atlanta that is waiting on Greenville, SC to be finished), but not many people are going to say, I really didn't want a Tesla or an EV, but I REALLY want Falcon wing doors so I'm going to buy a Model X. When you have limited funds, you simply have to make great decisions about how to spend those funds.

OK, well, I mostly agree with you here.

 

[Gerasimental]

OK, well, I mostly agree with you here.

Me too and I wish we had a dedicated global Supercharger progress thread again! Looks to me like Supercharger build-out has slowed in 2015, but maybe we'll get another end of year explosion. Could this slow-down be to do with keeping capex down? I hope not.

 

[Buddyroe]

I certainly consider the worst-case scenario. Ever having to stop at a gas station is the worst-case scenario. So I buy a car where I won't ever have to do that.

And this is not my perspective, this is what every day Joe is saying. Just ask people who have any experience whatsoever with an EV and you'll see.

The fact that you're asking people who *don't* have experience with EVs, and thinking that their opinion of how EVs work is more valid than people who *do* have experience driving not just EVs but ICEs, is sort of ridiculous. EV drivers overwhelmingly prefer charging to filling up, and they have tried both. It's pretty clear which is superior.

- - - Updated - - -



Maybe by, I don't know, charging? I count 5 DC fast charge stations in Savannah. 4 within the ring in Charlotte. There isn't "no charging" anywhere. A guy drove a Roadster around the entire world several years ago, no problem, even through Inner Mongolia and the Ural mountains. And there's probably 10-20 times as many chargers now as when he did it.

Do you know anything about EVs? You seem to have a lot of experience talking to people who know nothing about EVs, and know nothing about them yourself, and are providing a lot of "answers" to these people despite not knowing anything about them. If you did know anything about them, you would know that charging instead of fueling is a benefit, not a drawback. And you would not make up ridiculous numbers like needing to charge 2h40 on a 250 mile drive.

So, you're asking the choir (1% of the population) if they like EVs? That's not who we have to convince!

 

[FANGO]

So, you're asking the choir (1% of the population) if they like EVs? That's not who we have to convince!

When you're wondering about a product, do you ask people who have tried it or people who have no idea what they're talking about?

You seem to be trusting the people who have no idea what they're talking about. This is not the way to get accurate information. Perhaps that's where you got the idea that you need to charge for 2h40m to drive 250 miles.

Regardless, as someone said before, this is irrelevant to short-term Tesla, because nobody is having trouble selling Teslas right now. And products which have universally-positive word of mouth from users don't typically have problems longer term either.

 

[Buddyroe]

Me too and I wish we had a dedicated global Supercharger progress thread again! Looks to me like Supercharger build-out has slowed in 2015, but maybe we'll get another end of year explosion. Could this slow-down be to do with keeping capex down? I hope not.

Benz over on Tesla's General forum keeps good statistics pertaining to SuperChargers. 2015 will be close to 2014 in terms of SCers opened. Here is his break down (does not include the Wisconsin SC that just opened).


Update including October 6th, 2015:
North America
2012: 0 + 0 + 2 + 7 = 9
2013: 0 + 2 + 11 + 28 = 41
2014: 32 + 16 + 19 + 35 = 102
2015: 42 + 19 + 22 + 0 = 83
Total: 9 + 41 + 102 + 83 = 235

Europe
2013: 0 + 0 + 6 + 8 = 14
2014: 0 + 10 + 44 + 54 = 108
2015: 19 + 19 + 32 + 1 = 71
Total: 14 + 108 + 71 = 193

Asia Pacific (Currently: China, Japan, Australia)
2014: 0 + 3 + 16 + 39 = 58
2015: 15 + 5 + 15 + 0 = 35
Total: 58 + 35 = 93
Global total: 235 + 193 + 93 = 521

2012 Global total: 9 + 0 + 0 = 9
2013 Global total: 41 + 14 + 0 = 55
2014 Global total: 102 + 108 + 58 = 268
2015 Global total so far: 83 + 71 + 35 = 189
Q1 2013 total: 0 + 0 + 0 = 0

Q2 2013 total: 2 + 0 + 0 = 2
Q3 2013 total: 11 + 6 + 0 = 17
Q4 2013 total: 28 + 8 + 0 = 36

Q1 2014 total: 32 + 0 + 0 = 32
Q2 2014 total: 16 + 10 + 3 = 29
Q3 2014 total: 19 + 44 + 16 = 79
Q4 2014 total: 35 + 54 + 39 = 128

H1 2014: 32 + 29 = 61
H2 2014: 79 + 128 = 207

Q1 2015 total: 42 + 19 + 15 = 76
Q2 2015 total: 19 + 19 + 5 = 43
Q3 2015 total: 22 + 32 + 15 = 69
Q4 2015 (so far): 0 + 1 + 0 = 1 (in 6 days)

H1 2015: 76 + 43 = 119 (in 181 days)
H2 2015 (so far): 22 + 33 + 15 = 70 (in 98 days)

"189 new live Supercharger stations in 279 days (in 2015). The average is more than 0.6774 per day (in 2015)". That looks like the going average these days. The average in 2014 was 0.7342 (= 268/365). And that still is extraordinary progress, although the average in 2015 (so far) is lower than the average in 2014.

Link

Moderators - feel free to move this as needed. Just wanted to post it here since the question was raised here.

 

[doggusfluffy]

So, you're asking the choir (1% of the population) if they like EVs? That's not who we have to convince!

To bring this very point back to the ST context, this has been my underlying frustration with Tesla's softshoe approach lately. The primary goal is education and letting the rest of the world in on the exciting future possibilities...and what is already available. So in my mind, if you can achieve that through the fanfare and hype I expected around the Model X unveiling, it would have benefited every aspect of Tesla's plans. They could be positioning as the ideal solution to the VW recall which would drive Model S sales as well as X reservations. This is when the cards near your chest is beyond perplexing as a strategy...for me at least.