Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Demand

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
You can order a Model S and get it soon. Not true for Model X or Model 3. Current estimates are:

Model S Late June (if I order on May 21 so maybe 4 or 5 weeks)
Model X July delivery (if I order on May 21 so maybe 8 weeks?)
Model 3 late 2018 delivery (If I order on May 21 2016 I might get it in 100 weeks or so?)

And assuming 2,500 a week max production rate per car type we get

Model S under 12,000 backlog
Model X under 20,000 backlog
Model 3 under 400,000 backlog

So yes, looking at those numbers I think you are right there is no way that S/X alone are 160,000 backlogged.

The only way that would make sense would be if 80,000 or so Model X are all in transit between the factory and delivery right now.

I could believe there are tens of thousands of model X working through the pipeline right now but not that many.

Production capacity is around 1300 right not, in total. The backlog isn't nearly as high as you think for the S and X. The total backlog is probably around 10k. 7 weeks average wait times 1500 weekly runrate (they are ramping up production soon).
 
That's been my experience.
Demand follows awareness. Butts-in-seats drives compulsion. Which is an order of magnitude more powerful that 'demand.'

Exactly. When I see a new Mercedes/Audi/Porsche with temporary tags, I think "poor ignorant bastard." If that person had just driven a Model S or Model X, they would not have bought the ICE POS they just did. I wouldn't drive a top of line AMG if you gave it to me for free, because compared to a Tesla, it will feel sluggish with an ancient transmission that has to use more than one gear....
 
Production capacity is around 1300 right not, in total. The backlog isn't nearly as high as you think for the S and X. The total backlog is probably around 10k. 7 weeks average wait times 1500 weekly runrate (they are ramping up production soon).

You have no idea from that post what I think the actual backlog is. I just showed using high numbers how it had to be less than 160,000 by a huge margin. I did not in any way say what I thought it actually is.

If you think you have that clear an insight to the actual week to week rates without waiting for quarterly reports then go for it. I'm not playing your game.

I will say that production capacity is above 1300 but this is a demand thread not a supply thread so I'm not going to specify sources here or do any sort of math to support that. If you disagree find a production thread to make your claim and we can argue there.
 
Production capacity is around 1300 right not, in total. The backlog isn't nearly as high as you think for the S and X. The total backlog is probably around 10k. 7 weeks average wait times 1500 weekly runrate (they are ramping up production soon).

OK, so only 10K backlog you think....

Sooo... what do you think the other $340,000,000.00 deposits($390mm-$50mm(10K backlog at $5K each, Sigs at $40K are already delivered)) are for? even if you try to count the M3 deposits, it was less than 150K deposits on the 31st, so $150M max, but Tesla said due to time it takes for Credit card processing, they didn't book significant amount for Q1. And TE has no deposit requirement. I think your cool story could be more entertainable if you included what the rest of the deposits are for. I suppose you could say Tesla is faking it, but they do have a 3rd party CPA firm that prevents that from happening...
 
Tesla likely has showrooms with a couple miles of every higher volume Mercedes dealership. In high net worth zip codes in the U.S. there are many Tesla's. The early adopters in these zipcodes will drive some demand growth.

But there are not likely areas with many high net worth household that are untouched by Tesla.

Outside of the NYC area the rest of NY State doesn't have a single store. There are large numbers of high net worth households untouched by Tesla in NY State alone.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoTslaGo
160k backlog. Meanwhile you can order a car and recieve it in 4 weeks while the production rate is 50k yearly. Not even math laws can hold Tesla down.

160k is assuming all domestic model S deposits - not the least bit reasonable. Asia and Europe still has signature model X's yet to be delivered, so my original estimate of 80k ($5000 deposit) is a better number. Worst case, you back out $100 million from the model 3 reservations, and another $50 million from chinese buyers who have to pay in full in advance of receiving their car (assuming 500 actively awaiting delivery), you're still left with a significant number of deposits (~40k) from people waiting to order a model S or X. The demand is definitely there to meet guidance. The question is (and has always been), can production capability meet it.
 
OK, so only 10K backlog you think....

Sooo... what do you think the other $340,000,000.00 deposits($390mm-$50mm(10K backlog at $5K each, Sigs at $40K are already delivered)) are for? even if you try to count the M3 deposits, it was less than 150K deposits on the 31st, so $150M max, but Tesla said due to time it takes for Credit card processing, they didn't book significant amount for Q1. And TE has no deposit requirement. I think your cool story could be more entertainable if you included what the rest of the deposits are for. I suppose you could say Tesla is faking it, but they do have a 3rd party CPA firm that prevents that from happening...

Perhaps that figure include full car payments from people who have ordered, paid and is waiting for their car. Who knows. I just know that the backlog can't be much higher than 10k vehicles, that is just impossible with the current waiting list.
 
160k is assuming all domestic model S deposits - not the least bit reasonable. Asia and Europe still has signature model X's yet to be delivered, so my original estimate of 80k ($5000 deposit) is a better number. Worst case, you back out $100 million from the model 3 reservations, and another $50 million from chinese buyers who have to pay in full in advance of receiving their car (assuming 500 actively awaiting delivery), you're still left with a significant number of deposits (~40k) from people waiting to order a model S or X. The demand is definitely there to meet guidance. The question is (and has always been), can production capability meet it.

If the backlog was 40k, how do you explain that if you order today you recieve the car in 4 weeks. Do you think Tesla is producing 10k/week, 130k/quarter? Or do you think that if you order now you get the car before 3 out of 4 people who ordered before you? It has to be one or the other.
 
If the backlog was 40k, how do you explain that if you order today you recieve the car in 4 weeks. Do you think Tesla is producing 10k/week, 130k/quarter? Or do you think that if you order now you get the car before 3 out of 4 people who ordered before you? It has to be one or the other.

Model X 75's aren't being delivered yet. Ordering a P90 let's you jump in front of even US orders. Everyone else has to wait for their regional allocation to begin. So yes, if you're in the US, you got priority over 3 out of 4 people.

Edit: if you want to say that there can't be more than 10k model S in the currant backlog, that I can't find issue with, but that doesn't translate to not meeting their guidance, not with so many orders not delivered yet.
 
If the backlog was 40k, how do you explain that if you order today you recieve the car in 4 weeks. Do you think Tesla is producing 10k/week, 130k/quarter? Or do you think that if you order now you get the car before 3 out of 4 people who ordered before you? It has to be one or the other.

Or it could be that the wait times listed aren't 100% accurate. It might be hard to believe that Tesla has communication flaws (/sarcasm), but there's always plenty of people on the forum complaining about their cars not arriving on time.

That's why you can't draw firm conclusions using loose estimates that are updated at arbitrary intervals. Logic can only take you so far if the assumptions you're basing them on aren't completely accurate.
 
Model X 75's aren't being delivered yet. Ordering a P90 let's you jump in front of even US orders. Everyone else has to wait for their regional allocation to begin. So yes, if you're in the US, you got priority over 3 out of 4 people.

This is also an important point. It should be understood that the wait times reflect a best-case scenario, i.e., you should consider the estimated delivery date as the earliest one could conceivably get the car but depending on batching, it could come much later.
 
If the backlog was 40k, how do you explain that if you order today you recieve the car in 4 weeks. Do you think Tesla is producing 10k/week, 130k/quarter? Or do you think that if you order now you get the car before 3 out of 4 people who ordered before you? It has to be one or the other.

Either you are being disingenuous or you just don't understand what you are saying.

Again I say you can't order a Model X today and get it in 4 weeks.

Model S Late June (if I order on May 21 so maybe 4 or 5 weeks)
Model X July delivery (if I order on May 21 so maybe 8 weeks?)

So please stop saying you can get one in 4 weeks when it's clear the backlog for Tesla is longer than 4 weeks.
 
Or it could be that the wait times listed aren't 100% accurate. It might be hard to believe that Tesla has communication flaws (/sarcasm), but there's always plenty of people on the forum complaining about their cars not arriving on time.

That's why you can't draw firm conclusions using loose estimates that are updated at arbitrary intervals. Logic can only take you so far if the assumptions you're basing them on aren't completely accurate.

Delays doesn't really matter unless Tesla calculate a delay into the waiting time given, and if that is the case then the backlog would be even smaller.
 
Model X 75's aren't being delivered yet. Ordering a P90 let's you jump in front of even US orders. Everyone else has to wait for their regional allocation to begin. So yes, if you're in the US, you got priority over 3 out of 4 people.

Edit: if you want to say that there can't be more than 10k model S in the currant backlog, that I can't find issue with, but that doesn't translate to not meeting their guidance, not with so many orders not delivered yet.

We should talk about S and X seperately I guess. With the S demand is more predictable as it has been sold for a while and there is not a big difference in wait depending on the model, and here the numbers show a production around 50k/yearly with little chance in wait. For the X it's harder to say with confidence as the production rate has been changing significantly lately so what production rate Tesla has built into the waiting time given is hard to say. Haven't really studied the different wait times much either, but from what I have seen it doesn't look great, even if the expectation from Tesla is to build 800/week.
 
Either you are being disingenuous or you just don't understand what you are saying.

Again I say you can't order a Model X today and get it in 4 weeks.

Model S Late June (if I order on May 21 so maybe 4 or 5 weeks)
Model X July delivery (if I order on May 21 so maybe 8 weeks?)

So please stop saying you can get one in 4 weeks when it's clear the backlog for Tesla is longer than 4 weeks.

I was referring to the wait for the S of course, which has the highest production capacity (most weight). With a wait of 4 weeks times 1000 per week that is 4000 cars in the backlog. If the backlog is 8 weeks for the X that is only 6400 even at the expectation of 800 cars built per week which I don't think is actually expected before the end of this quarter. In total around 10k cars as I said.
 
Delays doesn't really matter unless Tesla calculate a delay into the waiting time given, and if that is the case then the backlog would be even smaller.

Not just talking about delays. Talking about website wait times inherently being a very imprecise predictor of actual delivery date.

If the backlog is 8 weeks for the X that is only 6400 even at the expectation of 800 cars built per week which I don't think is actually expected before the end of this quarter. In total around 10k cars as I said.

This is misunderstanding the concept of wait times by reducing it to a simplistic math problem.

The wait time listed is the earliest one can expect to get the vehicle. If you order any option that isn't in production yet, you are still waiting patiently, much longer than the listed wait time, as people today bypass you by getting the higher-optioned car.

It is not logical to simply multiply weeks (which wait time isn't listed in) in a single region for the highest optioned vehicle and draw any sort of conclusion for overall demand worldwide for every model.
 
Perhaps that figure include full car payments from people who have ordered, paid and is waiting for their car. Who knows. I just know that the backlog can't be much higher than 10k vehicles, that is just impossible with the current waiting list.

Your theory regarding people paying for the car in full and waiting is mildly interesting. However, I believe Tesla does not require you to pay in full, nor have loan/lease paid, until the car is near completion at the factory. So it is highly unlikely, there is much of that situation. And even if a few customers did pay in full, and the the car was delayed at the service center, the fully paid amount will not be in the "deposit" bucket, as GAP probably says you will apply it to "Accounts receivable" bucket, but not settled till delivered.

Thanks for your honest answer though. So what you said is, "Who knows" = you don't know what the other $340mm deposit is for. But then you also said, "I just know" = the backlog can't be much higher than 10K, based on your assessment of the current wait times. Which I believe are not an accurate evidence, since they build and ship in batches based on timing of the quarter, to different regions of the world, that takes up to extra 6 weeks of transit time,
 
We should talk about S and X seperately I guess. With the S demand is more predictable as it has been sold for a while and there is not a big difference in wait depending on the model, and here the numbers show a production around 50k/yearly with little chance in wait. For the X it's harder to say with confidence as the production rate has been changing significantly lately so what production rate Tesla has built into the waiting time given is hard to say. Haven't really studied the different wait times much either, but from what I have seen it doesn't look great, even if the expectation from Tesla is to build 800/week.

Changing the goalpost here, aren't we? Fine, so let's separate S from X. How do you wish to reconcile the 4week wait time of US deliveries versus the 3 month wait for all of Asia (China, hong Kong, Japan, and Australia)?
 
Changing the goalpost here, aren't we? Fine, so let's separate S from X. How do you wish to reconcile the 4week wait time of US deliveries versus the 3 month wait for all of Asia (China, hong Kong, Japan, and Australia)?

How is that moving the goal post? Calculating S and X seperately just makes the estimates more precise. The 3 month wait is because of shipping by boat takes a long time, and I also believe they need to ready the car when it gets there before delivery. It's impossible to say exactly how long that shipping process is so it makes more sense to just go by the US wait.

It would make no sense for Tesla to have the cars for overseas wait much longer before they went into production (which would result in a larger backlog), it's probably more likely that they are producing these first at the beginning of each quarter and then clear up the US orders near the end to meet guidance best possible.

If you count the cars in the shipping process on their way to China the total "backlog" is larger than my estimates, but it doesn't really make sense to count these as they might as well be delivered, it's just a delayed delivery.
 
If the backlog was 40k, how do you explain that if you order today you recieve the car in 4 weeks. Do you think Tesla is producing 10k/week, 130k/quarter? Or do you think that if you order now you get the car before 3 out of 4 people who ordered before you? It has to be one or the other.

You should stop saying that one can get Model S in 4 weeks after ordering. Since your goal is to roughly estimate the backlog, you need to consider lead times in all regions, not just NA. I've pointed this before, not sure if you missed it (unlikely), or just insisting on being right when you are not.

As of 5/19/16 it was:

NA...........................4.0 weeks
Europe..................10.6 weeks
Asia/Pacific.........15.0 weeks