Yes, Vin date to Prod Start is trending to 15 on the MS. I don't have graphs for MX but I have a few lines which are in the set of (20, 25, 14, 23, 18). For customers' orders. It's trending toward the teens. Few report MX at all, but those who do rarely report "entered production" dates. I wonder if they are even told when it happens? Clearly the MS chatter and ordering is well above the MX level. With the MS 60 choices (big discount for essentially an MS75) and the leasing options, they may still maintain near 1000/wk MS.
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Yes, Vin date to Prod Start is trending to 15 on the MS. I don't have graphs for MX but I have a few lines which are in the set of (20, 25, 14, 23, 18). For customers' orders. It's trending toward the teens. Few report MX at all, but those who do rarely report "entered production" dates. I wonder if they are even told when it happens? Clearly the MS chatter and ordering is well above the MX level. With the MS 60 choices (big discount for essentially an MS75) and the leasing options, they may still maintain near 1000/wk MS.
If the assumption is that production runs at slightly less than nominal capacity in July and August because of the lack of orders, how do you explain the fact that time between the order confirmation and start of the production is at least one week, with most at about two weeks?
If the rate of incoming orders holding up production, one would expect this time to be couple of days at most: why hold these orders for two weeks before building them, if there is available production capacity to build them right away?
In May, the data that is visible shows the highest Vin #s built during May were Inventory MS cars up to the range of 1429xx. (based on production end date). And this is where you can see they were building Inventory cars ahead of paying customer orders.
1427xx-1429xx Inventory were built ahead of customers with confirm dates in the April and earlier dates. Because of that, they just continue to do "funny things" with Vin # pre-assignment. Nothing new, goes back to 2014 where things like Vin #s for Hong Kong were pre-assigned in March and built in June for August delivery. Years ago, Musk said "if you want to track sales, watch the Vin #s". So, maybe they know they can "adjust perception" by monkeying around with these numbers? And I wonder if those production chiefs who left the company were involved by-request? From the data, you can see that there have been "instances" of over-inflating the Vin #s by pre-assigning them, then never building. Q3 2014 due to the Reveal the D event. Perhaps many inventory builds were going to be built - but then they chose to "Reveal the D" and re-do that order setup with actual customer cars who ordered in October. The column "built Vin overage" below is a delta between Vin #s issued during the quarter and the published production number. Q3 Thru 8/21, I am tracking 6860 MS Vins. We are more than 1/2 way through Q3 - wouldn't it be higher if they were looking to do 50,000 cars this H2? Only other thought is they are using a different series # like the 168668 singularity for cars going to China to "hide" something away from the main stream of data. Watching the Vin #s would feel like they were "selling more" if they were encouraging extra Vin # assignments never to be built.
This looks like a graph which is moderately lack-luster when "considering growth". But goes out the window if they have some secret Vin # range in the 16xxxx area which we don't know about due to it be shuttled off to China. Thing is, reported sales still lines up well with the chart above - the continuous series from day 1. I sure hope they are not running "secondary Vin # series" or perhaps take this as "a new idea" to obfuscate the Vin #s in order to hide production activity from the market.
Attachments
With complaints about supplier issues a fairly standard element in any Tesla conference call, my most likely bet would be to give the whole manufacturing process some buffer time to guarantee that the right components for that particular build are available at the factory.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Ah interesting, thanks for pointing that out. I tried to go back to verify if there was a picture but as I mentioned the listing was gone. IMHO that's enough evidence for me to be extremely skeptical of using VINs for tracking.
So, we are back to the production constrained theory? < duck >
Using two-levels of indirection (distraction) - sure. The only way Tesla can change guidance is to blame someone else.
2014 Q4 - customers on vacation, cars on boats.
2015 - 55,000 down to 50,000 - "Model X slow rollout"
2016 - 80-90k down to about 79k so far - "fast ramp = slow sales in Q2" (say what?)
Did you hear in Q2 ER Q&A that Musk was going to go to a supplier on that following Saturday to "find out what the hell is going on..." Well, what is going on? Are they the next to blame? What part(s)? And did they supply the parts needed to institute a new 2-year lease program, the "waive the $1200 delivery/doc fee" sales associate incentive and continuation of the referral discount?
All well and good that they "aspired" to meet a sale guidance goal. However, you do not create a "wish" as a material sales guidance goal and adjust whether or not you make it and are off by over 10% in the end of the year (as with 2014 and 2015) as a standard basis of operations. Using basic math and data analysis, I was able to win the TMC sales prediction contest in 2014 and came in something like runner-up in 2015. Why can I do it when company officers cannot? For a company lofted to this stature by the business press and given billions of our money by mutual fund managers and bond traders (money our 401k are invested in, money that people want to use to retire) - we must request that the company maintain a higher standard of truth and transparency. Even if it costs them a few dozen dollars on the pps. Truth is much stronger than the next "story" that is hoisted up on the roof (pun intended).
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Cheeky
It's the difference between latency and bandwidth really. Their production process is good enough to keep up with the volume of current demand, it's just not good enough to instantly deliver.
Chickenlittle
Banned
i cannot believe i am actually responding to you but what makes you believe its supplier of model x or s? i thought he was referring to model 3 supplier and keeping on top of them. of course that doesnt fit your thesis
No. It was specifically about S/X. Here is the full quote
Elon Musk on 2016Q2 conferance call said:
So supplier issues were still were in play but less than before and not enough to keep them from producing 2000/week.
How do you explain current November delivery estimates for Europe and China? Historically, transit time to Europe/China is about 4 weeks. If the current demand were slacking, I would have expected late September or early October estimates.Cheeky
mikes_fsd
Banned
I can - it is because September 1 is only 8 days away. To order today, 7-day confirmation delay (* sometimes longer in Europe). Then confirmation. Vin # given then scheduled production. Even if they produce the vehicle only 7 days after confirmation, that is mid-September before it is nearing production completion. Put it on a train to the east coast or Houston. Then on a ship to Europe. Then prep for delivery. November is quite easy.
IF you look here at Norway. Registreringer av nye elbiler i Norge
These are August registrations so far.
Say cars in the Vin # range of 138245 138260 were confirmed between 4/5 and 4/8. Delivered in August, registered Aug 17.
Three calendar months from confirmation. Perhaps 3.5 calendar months from order date.
That list is plain-vanilla - we have no idea if people on the list are buying inventory or orders.
Aug 23 + 3.5 months = December.
Now, a bunch of Euro Inventory in the 1463xx range would have been assigned about 6/3. Probably production very soon after to push out inventory quickly. Let's say they finished production 6/15 to 6/20 and hit the highway to Europe 4-5 weeks later after going through Tilburg. A few were listed on the Tesla web site (and ev-cpo.com) as inventory Aug 4. That's 4-6 weeks transit - about normal. And so, I can imagine that the 147xxx that were registered recently in August in Norway were either inventory on the lot (their Vin #s are close together) or were ordered roughly the same time in the late spring and batched ad shipped together. that is still 2 months.
Aug 23 + 2 months = late October.
I would think they might do a break for Labor Day week, but who knows. Maybe they plow-on-through trying to make a good number. Also, a reminder is that Jason Wheeler also reminded that Q4 has holidays coming too (presumably indicating full week shutdowns for Thanksgiving and Christmas?)
Fairly few post from Europe about their dates - but two that I can use are:
Confirms of 5/7, 5/9 - production of 6/28 and 7/5 and 8/22 deliveries. 3 months, one week.
Vins in the 1429xx,1430xx range. Could they have made the cars earlier? Sure - there are some big blocks of inventory cars visible wrapping these guys who they could have put off to make actual customer cars first.
Today's November seems justifiable as "average".
PS - delivery estimates are just that. Estimates. Many USA buyers are getting cars 1-3 weeks early right now. You can see their posts here on TMC. Some are not - and wondering why they are being short-changed while others are receiving cars early.
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It just takes that long with shipping. You need shipping by rail to the east coast, then on the boat to Antwerp/Rotterdam, then by truck to Tilburg and then again by boat or truck to wherever in Europe the car needs to go. There is a user on SpeakEV that had access to professional shipment tracking and provided very accurate shipment information. Here is a typical example. Browse that thread for much more examples. As you see, from end of build date it takes nearly 2 months to get the car to the service center of the customer. Add in 1 week confirmation, two weeks of building and we are already pretty much the second half of November. If the stars align (and train/boat schedules) align up right it can go quicker but most often it's just that slow.
Edit : TMC forum does not let me link to the post in question just to the page. It is post #2587 in the thread linked above.
P100DL - come and get them. Will those who bought P85D, then P85DL, then P90DL now buy their P100DL to go with the set? Good for margins. So, too bad someone not wanting L performance or even not wanting D cannot get a 100 kWh battery. Only 100 is the P100DL and fully optioned out, just over $150k. No need for UHF sound - too busy screaming at the Speeeeeeeeeed (Jeremy Clarkson (tm) ) I suppose 90 eventually goes away and all 90 variations go to 100 in the next few months.
So, this seems to be for the dragster crowd and unique ownership model for those who must have the latest.
So, this seems to be for the dragster crowd and unique ownership model for those who must have the latest.
dennis
Model S Plaid
According to Elon, production of the 100 battery is currently limited to 200/week. So why not start at the top of the line and then expand to 100D etc. when battery production increases.
The limited supply leads me to believe some new chemistry in the battery, rather than using more of the same cells or higher voltage.
EDIT: I just saw this in the Electrek coverage: "For the 100 kWh battery pack, Tesla is using the same battery cell, but a new module and pack architecture, new cooling system and electronics. CTO JB Straubel described the upgrade as a “significant change”.
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dc_h
Active Member
With 156k and 157k VIN's in the last week, are we on track to see 158 and 159 VIN's posted in August? Seems like the p100 announcement may have been holding up assignments and there was no change in demand.
Schonelucht?
Schonelucht?
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