Demand

[esk8mw]

I read a few posts of UK based RHD guys getting Late December, early January delivery commitments. If it takes that long, will they make it by end of Q4? I would hope they are building them now (if not late in Q3). Vin # does not always mean going to production very soon - but lately it appears it has meant that. Notice the early 2014 dates - many were Hong Kong Vin #s assigned in March, went to production in June.

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I appreciate the data, but using early 2014 data to try and decipher when things will be sent into production now? Not so sure about that one.

It's obvious the RHD are being scheduled for production now, as they are last on the MX backlog list with deliveries not even started yet (obviously Euro orders below the P90D/90D line also need to be cleared as well).

 

[bonaire]

The graph gives a history of activity and does show trending to the low teens in # of days from Vin # to production start. I would have wanted to see RHD cars get Vin #s in late Sept so they could be in production first week of October in order to make sure to be deliverable by end of Q4. Unless then number is relatively small, they don't want to keep those folks waiting much longer as some may have been putting down original reservations as far back as Feb 2012.

 

[schonelucht]

It would be good if Tesla manages to deliver most of the Model X backlog for the UK still this year to help with Q4 goals. There is finally some movement as well in the Model S tracker too. 166xxx confirmed by a second assignment today. 164xxx is already available as inventory but no 163xxx's at all. Not in US inventory nor in custom orders. Most likely therefore overseas inventory.

 

[bonaire]

I have to wonder if RHD jobs got a "clean vin" number series assignment. Usually, this is to start a new "different" series on a rounded number. 165000 for MS and 24000 for MX, for example.

 

[bonaire]

If you have time, check out the 525 or so new inventory cars listed for Europe and Hong Kong at ev-cpo.com 520 of them have 50 mi/km. A lot of grouped sequence numbers in there. I still suspect Monday's announcement may include some sort of partnership or dealership "sales extension" to increase sales. I don't even have time this weekend to blend them into my tracking data, there's too many. Since they don't track Model X inventory, hard to know how many of those are going to be out there this week.

Some may be abandoned orders for those who took inventory cars @ discount in Q3, such as MS #160868.

 

[schonelucht]

This was to be expected. And a similar move will follow for the United States as well. At least having this list out in the open makes it pretty easy to follow up on the sales rate of inventory in Europe. Today we're at 547 and just 11 listed with a discount. If the previous quarter is a guide, we will see another round of inventory cars appear somewhere in December, so they need to sell them in roughly 6 weeks time.

 

[EinSV]

Following up on a post in the short-term thread, according to JL Warren Capital’s Junheng Li, an analyst who "called" Tesla's Model S challenges in China early on, Model X is "one of the most sought after SUVs" in China, and S60 sales are also taking off.

Tesla Motors: It’s Working?

Is there any other recent intelligence on demand in China? This report sounds very promising, and higher than anticipated demand in China and possibly other Asian markets could be part of the reason for the recent growth in backlog in deliveries.

 

[schonelucht]

Is there any other recent intelligence on demand in China? This report sounds very promising, and higher than anticipated demand in China and possibly other Asian markets could be part of the reason for the recent growth in backlog in deliveries.

Doubtfull, the article talks about 10 000 deliveries in 2016. Even if a full half would fall in the last quarter, that's still barely just over 2 weeks production at current rate.

 

[EinSV]

Doubtfull, the article talks about 10 000 deliveries in 2016. Even if a full half would fall in the last quarter, that's still barely just over 2 weeks production at current rate.

Since Ms. Li is predicting 322% y/y growth in China driven in significant part by Model X, and Model X China deliveries just began in June, it seems possible that 5000 of those 10,000 deliveries could be in Q4.

2-2.5 weeks of production plus two weeks of production shutdown accounts for a full month of production, and we're already in mid-October.

Whatever the Q4 China numbers turn out to be, I am going to go with Occam's razor and say that the recent delays in delivery times are due to demand exceeding production capacity, which should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 2200 vehicles per week by now. This is corroborated by Tesla's decision to drop the X60 from the lineup. It makes sense to drop their lowest margin vehicle, especially if they are seeing high demand from China and elsewhere for higher base price versions of the Model X.

That should make hitting 25K deliveries in Q4 and 50K deliveries in the second half relatively straightforward, as long as (1) installation of Model 3 production equipment is not too disruptive, and (2) they don't end up with too many vehicles in transit at the end of the year. Dropping the X60 should also increase margins.

 

[dc_h]

New Since Ms. Li is predicting 322% y/y growth in China driven in significant part by Model X, and Model X China deliveries just began in June, it seems possible that 5000 of those 10,000 deliveries could be in Q4.

This does seem very optimistic. Would be huge if true and would imply Tesla could be up to 3000 weekly S and X production/ demand in 2017.

 

[EinSV]

This does seem very optimistic. Would be huge if true and would imply Tesla could be up to 3000 weekly S and X production/ demand in 2017.

I would be very interested to see more data to corroborate this report but if confirmed it's hard to paint 300% y/y growth and, even more importantly, excitement about the Model X in China, as anything other than a very positive development.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This does seem very optimistic. Would be huge if true and would imply Tesla could be up to 3000 weekly S and X production/ demand in 2017.

The current general assembly line designed for a nominal output of 2500 units per week.

 

[TMSE]

The current general assembly line designed for a nominal output of 2500 units per week.

You meant final assembly? Or body assembly?

 

[vgrinshpun]

You meant final assembly? Or body assembly?

General assembly line and final assembly line was used in Tesla shareholder letters interchangeably. This is mostly manual assembly line where car interiors, battery and drive units are installed into the painted car bodies.

 

[dc_h]

The current general assembly line designed for a nominal output of 2500 units per week.

It is a moving target. Premature speculation, until demand is better understood. Ended 2015 at 1200 maximum production and not at 2400 yet, but I expect they will continue to improve process and productivity.

 

[EinSV]

ev-sales.blogspot reports more than 1000 Model S units registered in China in September -- so it is not only demand for Model X that appears to be taking off in China.

BMW 740e - With the Tesla Model S and the local Roewe e950 gaining traction, both in September registered more than 1.000 units, it is proven that there is a market for plug-in large sedans, so the second most successful foreign manufacturer, BMW, launched its new and promising 740e in China, having registered 15 units, a good sign that it will trounce the Merc S500e and Porsche Panamera PHEV sales (This year they had around 60 units...Combined), but don't get your hopes up too much, if the German model reaches 100 units/month, it will be considered a success.

EV Sales: China

There were a total of over 2392 Model S registrations in Q3 in China (883 + 559 + 1000 (or more)) -- or about a 10,000 Model S per year clip.

If Model X reaches a similar pace, ending 2016 in the neighborhood of a 20,000 S/X units per year pace in China seems feasible.

Looking forward to seeing Model X numbers over the next few months. But so far I would say the most recent data seem to support Ms. Li's report that Tesla China sales are taking off.

 

[electracity]

......

Looking forward to seeing Model X numbers over the next few months. But so far I would say the most recent data seem to support Ms. Li's report that Tesla China sales are taking off.

As far as market share, Tesla is hardly taking off in China. But it does seem that they are establishing a foothold. I doubt Tesla can be truly successful in that market without local manufacturing. Apparently the model 3 needs to be proved before they can make a China deal Musk likes. If that is true, There won't be a lot of sales in China until the next decade.

Tesla will likely sell in North America and western Europe every model 3 they can make through 2020. I suppose in production year two they will ship some model 3 to China, but only to further build the brand in that country.

The model S may be too low for a chauffeur driven car in China. Entering the second row from curb height is not elegant. I'm not sure how the model X will be perceived in that market.

 

[EinSV]

As far as market share, Tesla is hardly taking off in China. But it does seem that they are establishing a foothold. I doubt Tesla can be truly successful in that market without local manufacturing. Apparently the model 3 needs to be proved before they can make a China deal Musk likes. If that is true, There won't be a lot of sales in China until the next decade.

Tesla will likely sell in North America and western Europe every model 3 they can make through 2020. I suppose in production year two they will ship some model 3 to China, but only to further build the brand in that country.

The model S may be too low for a chauffeur driven car in China. Entering the second row from curb height is not elegant. I'm not sure how the model X will be perceived in that market.

Ms. Li reports Tesla China sales are likely to increase more than 300 percent in 2016 compared to 2015 and the data seem to support her prediction so far. Model S/X compete with Mercedes, BMW, Audi, Porsche, etc. not BYD and the like. To say a 300+% increase is not "taking off" is silly.

IMO, there is a 0.00% chance idea that Tesla will delay shipping Model 3s to China until 2020 -- it is too important of a market. They will very likely begin shipments in early 2018.

By planning to double Fremont factory space I believe Tesla is already laying the groundwork to greatly expand production capacity in Fremont. Will be interesting to see what they do about new factories in Asia and Europe.

 

[electracity]

Cadillac alone will sell maybe 70,000 XT5 in China this year. How many people have heard of the XT5?

Percent increases of Tesla's tiny market share doesn't mean much. Tesla likely gets much more press in China compared to Cadillac. The model S is likely not the right car for that market. Exporting an inexpensive EV from the bay area to China doesn't seems like a good plan to lose money.

The model X is unusual enough that I would not guess at its success in any market. It may take off in China. But I have no idea what the Chinese want in a $200K vehicle.

 

[EinSV]

Cadillac alone will sell maybe 70,000 XT5 in China this year. How many people have heard of the XT5?

Percent increases of Tesla's tiny market share doesn't mean much. Tesla likely gets much more press in China compared to Cadillac. The model S is likely not the right car for that market. Exporting an inexpensive EV from the bay area to China doesn't seems like a good plan to lose money.

The model X is unusual enough that I would not guess at its success in any market. It may take off in China. But I have no idea what the Chinese want in a $200K vehicle.

Tesla is on track to be selling 20,000 S/X per year by the end of 2016, more than a 300% increase and you think that "doesn't mean much."

OK I think this is falling into the "life is too short category" and we are going to have to agree to disagree.