I have to believe something is to be announced. Something that could be viewed as a positive. Like either completion of the Model 3 line prep and "early" production of Model 3 in late June as a market surprise or some other nifty situation. I doubt they just roll into mid to late July "as scheduled". Always something exciting to announce even if it were a hundred or few hundred Model 3 built earlier than "scheduled".
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I have to believe something is to be announced. Something that could be viewed as a positive. Like either completion of the Model 3 line prep and "early" production of Model 3 in late June as a market surprise or some other nifty situation. I doubt they just roll into mid to late July "as scheduled". Always something exciting to announce even if it were a hundred or few hundred Model 3 built earlier than "scheduled".
dennis
Model S Plaid
There is no need to do anything "early" since most of the WS models discount Tesla's claim of Model 3 production starting in July and reaching volume in 4Q17. July is a win and a win should feel like a win - don't try to set expectations higher.
The overall theme on WS seems to be that a blow-off top forms later in the year prior to beginning of some type of recession. WS may call upon any or all momentum players to push up harder now on even-better "news" (such as early Model 3 or whatnot). So, Model 3 early production in June could be worth $20 on the stock price. A simple tweet could do it.
Krugerrand
Meow
Oh, how quickly we forget that July is already EARLY production for the Model 3 by like, you know, a YEAR.
does that vin progression imply demand is running on a similar pace to last quarter? or production anyway?
Last quarter model S vins approximately went from 176xxx to 191xxx. This quarter we are seeing solid deliveries from 191xxx to 201xxx (for now). Obviously the quarter isn't over yet`but with estimated delivery for orders today already end of June, the cut off is probably soonish. Less clear is the backlog : based on shortening times between confirmation and production start one could make the case it's been depleted somewhat. All in all, I think Model S demand is at most flat and certainly not up.
Disclaimers : we don't know how many inventory builds Tesla is doing, Model X could have a completely different dynamic and many more... It's a very inexact science after all.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
I suspect that the Tegra 3 is being replaced. Whatever SoC is powering the center screen in the Model 3, Tesla has almost certainly ordered over a million of them at this point. Is Tesla really going to order over a million copies of an SoC from 2012? Possible but unlikely imo.
Whatever is replacing the Tegra 3 will almost certainly be much faster than the Tegra 3. There is no way that Tesla will want the SoC in the M3 to be superior to the one in the S/X. This means that the S/X will get this new SoC very soon.
I am tracking inventory builds and it looks like it is pretty healthy planning. Vin #s are assigned to inventory before they are built and could be issued in bulk then built "later, as seen fit". A finding I have is that they plan an inventory set and then interleave new inventory builds into the set a week later. It's interesting to watch (using my methods). I think the 200xxx-202xxx series have changed in their assignment manner (someone with MS said they got 2014xx on 4/24 - 4 weeks early from the trend)
I can PM you a chart of inventory by 1000 blocks which I cannot include China (which can be "big" if like Q1) or some parts of Europe - and even so, here are some highlights:
Interesting Inventory Per-1000 Vins -- MS
455 189xxx
497 190xxx
384 191xxx
349 192xxx
425 193xxx
260 198999
-MX
356 43xxx
408 44xxx
77 45xxx
116 46xxx
551 49xxx
These are Vin #s - and not cars. Not all Vins get built. They can "plan" and "disregard" as needed.
Inventory can mean: Inventory allotment, Marketing (which I believe is Demo/Loaner/etc)
they added 210 or so USA Model S available inventory last night (and 201 MX) based on data collected at ev-cpo.com/ Lots of data to sift through. Inventory for "Memorial Day weekend selling" perhaps?
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There should probably be signs of them reducing inventory cars before an interior refresh. Musk's frequent signally of the inferiority of the model 3 is perhaps part of updating the S/X.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
In 2016, they built lots of inventory during Q1/Q2 with the classic fascia ahead of the facelift and then in Q3, sold them off at healthy discounts. I see a build up in inventory as a reason to "sell off" old features and use up old OEM parts stock if new ones are to be instituted. You get this burst of inventory ahead of a changeover which then can be discounted on the change-over and allow Model 3 "watiers" to buy into inventory 75, 60 and other MS/MX at moderate "old-style SoC" discounting. Perhaps another Q3 summer sales event like Q3 2016.
www.itanywhere.no/Tesla.php
Just noticed that Model X with 38xxx and 39xxx are getting registered in Norway, which is interesting since those should all have been ordered before 15 January (2017 VIN Model X Order and Delivery) and delivered by mid April for free Supercharging. If I had to guess Tesla couldn't keep up with the demand around the end of Q1 push and is probably pushed some overseas orders back, but probably still honours the free supercharging, but it shows that this demand lever might still have an effect even in May.
Just noticed that Model X with 38xxx and 39xxx are getting registered in Norway, which is interesting since those should all have been ordered before 15 January (2017 VIN Model X Order and Delivery) and delivered by mid April for free Supercharging. If I had to guess Tesla couldn't keep up with the demand around the end of Q1 push and is probably pushed some overseas orders back, but probably still honours the free supercharging, but it shows that this demand lever might still have an effect even in May.
That's a good point. I like tech so I assume no one would want old tech at a discount.
The high pressure sales tactic that one owner reported (order today by midnight to get SC) is hopefully more indicative of Tesla's notoriously bad internal communication instead of a deliberate sales push. Because otherwise I'd need to count it as a signal that demand is flagging. Regardless, I am not surprised for them to bring back supercharging as a demand lever. People are notoriously for overestimating the true value of 'free and unlimited' programs and therefore it works exceptionally well as a sales incentive. I suspect the order backlog is running a little low and this way Tesla hopes to push it over to the next quarter. At which time only Model 3 counts.
That is a nice way of saying almost no backlog at all
Model S Order & Delivery 2017
I mean confirmation to production is down to around 10 days, some even lower. In Q1 you saw almost nothing below 20 days and many orders with 30+ days until they went into production. Even with the factory shutdown the average is still much lower now and my impression is this includes a lot of inventory builds.
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