Demand

[AlMc]

Joining the conversation. IIRC EM never said that production would start on a certain date in July. It is certainly possible that they start production in the last week of July and produce very few 3s.

I am with Bonaire: I will be happy if they can deliver 1,000 in July. I do not think 'the street' is expecting much more than that.

Producing/delivering 80 (ZeApelido's 20/wk) in July would be not well received by me or 'the street'.

 

[dennis]

Ok then - well, hopefully July is going to at least beat the 50/wk noted above by ZeApelido. Doing 200/mo in July is light - that's 10 per day and if sharing the line with Model S/X - perhaps run during the third shift so as not to get in the way of MS/MX. It's a waiting game now between expectations/promises/demand curves.

Neither the BIW nor final assembly lines for the Model 3 are shared with the Model S/X. The only thing that is shared is the paint shop, which has been upgraded to support 500K cars/year.

You really need to take a factory tour. I'd be happy to host you.

 

[bonaire]

Neither the BIW nor final assembly lines for the Model 3 are shared with the Model S/X. The only thing that is shared is the paint shop, which has been upgraded to support 500K cars/year.

You really need to take a factory tour. I'd be happy to host you.

I read research regarding paint shop permitting and so forth and it didn't indicate it could reach above 250k. Are there any proofs that exist indicating that a paint shop exists with the proper environmental allowances to get past 250k/yr? I am referring to Ed N.'s article - and I think that included some links to permits and so on a few months back.

Tesla Denies Paint Shop Bottleneck Report : PaintSquare News

The street is all about total cars produced - which is indicative of a big EV uptake and real "disruption". They know that 1% worldwide EV adoption is not truly disruption but a 50+% CAGR for "years to come" might be a start. Model 3 is why Tesla exists, fundamentally - and $TSLA ripped on the constant sell-side analysts pushing (ie. Jonas, Kallo, and Tesla's own A. James) that all these pieces were "hugely additive" to the stock value. Heck - James said that Powerwall/Powerpacks were $70/sh additive alone but those are low-margin components of the package with a really unknown market ahead. Her additives have already been added well beyond her expectations. Her job at Tesla is probably due to this assisting in the ramp.

Interesting times have occurred. Interesting times ahead.

 

[AlMc]

@bonaire . I was on a VIP factory tour and I do not believe I am violating any NDA by indicating that our guide indicated that the paint shop could indeed paint 500K vehicles a year. In addition, they were constructing an adjacent 'staging' area where they could warehouse painted vehicles IF the production line was down for maintenance so that the paint shop would never be a 'strangulation point' for overall production.

 

[bonaire]

Are VIP factory tours any different than car owner tours?

 

[AlMc]

Are VIP factory tours any different than car owner tours?

The Recent VIP tours were 'prizes' for referral 'winners'. I have been on a normal tour and the VIP tour. There was not much difference IMO but if you have never been go if you get a chance.

 

[Spidy]

Can we get back to the topic? With all the reservations I don't feel it makes sense to talk about the Model 3 here. Seems more like a supply discussion...

So.. the gaps in the Model S speadsheet seem to filling up in the last days. Pretty much all cars up tp 204000 seem to be produced and highest VINs around 2056xx so looks like we are down to around just a week of Model S backlog. Model X also seems to be catching up as people with 55xxx VINs report to go into production over the next days and one already is.

 

[bonaire]

I suspect the blocks of inventory vins are not built yet. They seem to block out a couple hundred and build them intermixed over time. But seems like my idea of building as many customer orders as possible now and going back to finish the inventory plan once custom orders slack off. For instance, model X 49xxx series has about 600 pre assigned inventory vins but I do not find them all available yet. I think a lot more inventory planning went into many of the recent blocks of 1000 vins. We will find out more as they come online through aggregators like ev-cpo.com/classic.

 

[dennis]

Joining the conversation. IIRC EM never said that production would start on a certain date in July. It is certainly possible that they start production in the last week of July and produce very few 3s.

I am with Bonaire: I will be happy if they can deliver 1,000 in July. I do not think 'the street' is expecting much more than that.

Producing/delivering 80 (ZeApelido's 20/wk) in July would be not well received by me or 'the street'.

FWIW Adam Jonas of MS is still forecasting Model 3 deliveries of 2K in 2017 and 90K in 2018.

 

[bonaire]

FWIW Adam Jonas of MS is still forecasting Model 3 deliveries of 2K in 2017 and 90K in 2018.

Jonas is an enigma. Or something like that. Has been good for the stock price, when needed like the 2014 Feb bond sale, which they helped underwrite.

 

[Spidy]

model X 49xxx series has about 600 pre assigned inventory vins but I do not find them all available yet

There are like 300 listed as US Inventory and it goes trough the whole range possible VINs. We even see some listed in Europe. Considering Tesla doesn't list everything one should never expect all cars to show up. Some of them have also been listed 1.5 month ago so some might have been sold, maybe without ever getting listed.

 

[dennis]

So.. the gaps in the Model S speadsheet seem to filling up in the last days. Pretty much all cars up tp 204000 seem to be produced and highest VINs around 2056xx so looks like we are down to around just a week of Model S backlog.

I'm not sure how you reached the conclusion that there is only a week of Model S backlog. If you look at the 9 cars in the spreadsheet with production starts this week (6/12-6/15) they average 20 days from Order Confirmed to Production Start. In other words 3 weeks.

There are 4 cars from 2-3 weeks ago with 0-1 days and all of them are headed to Norway or Estonia. Looks like they wanted to ensure 3Q delivery for those.

 

[Spidy]

Took me some time go get what you were looking at. Yeah, the 20 days average is because Tesla skipped the 100Ds and those now push up the average. If you look at the 100kWh cars produced earlier many of them were going to Canada. I guess Tesla does was still a bit limited on those batteries and used the ones they had for non-US countries and Inventory. Looks like they now made the move to finally produce the 100kWh cars for the US so they can deliver them in Q2.

If you ignore those 100kWh cars the average days from Order Confirmed to Production Start is much lower for recent builds. For example If you look at all the recent 20Xxxx VIN cars produced there are just 2 cars above 20 days.

 

[JRP3]

Analysts and stockholders want to see "Secretariat out of the gate" - so July needs to show at least a thousand Model 3 produced and delivered to employees at the companies (Space/X, Tesla, SolarCity, etc.) to meet what has been promised.

It's a waiting game now between expectations/promises/demand curves.

Could you link all the "promises"? Because for the life of me I can't remember any of them.

 

[dc_h]

Here's some demand news. Would explain some consecutive vin's.

Tesla vehicles arrive by the hundred in Dubai as the first store/service center is about to open

 

[geneclean55]

Here's some demand news. Would explain some consecutive vin's.

Tesla vehicles arrive by the hundred in Dubai as the first store/service center is about to open

Also deliveries to South Korea started June 20th. Online orders and store fronts opened several months ago. One can reasonably imagine that vehicles delivered there over the last couple of weeks in June would easily match Dubai.

 

[FlatSix911]

From Electrek ... Tesla’s stock (TSLA) tumbles as Goldman Sachs claims Model S/X demand peaked

Analysts have been assimilating Tesla’s second quarter delivery numbers over the last few days and now Goldman Sachs is sharing its opinion, which seems to be having a strong impact on the market. expand full story On Monday, Tesla confirmed having delivered just over 22,000 vehicles during the second quarter – reaching the lower-end of its delivery goal of 47,000 to 50,000 vehicles for the first half of the year.

In a new note to clients Wednesday, Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino reiterated a sell rating on the stock at $180 and interpreted the delivery numbers as reaching peak demand for Tesla’s vehicles: “We remain sell rated on shares of TSLA where we see potential for downside as the Model 3 launch curve undershoots the company’s production targets and as 2H17 margins likely disappoint. This comes as demand for TSLA’s established products (Model S and Model X) appear to be plateauing slightly below a 100k annual run rate.”

 

[FlatSix911]

Ineresting reading on the changing market ... Luxury Cars Offer More Models, but Find Fewer Buyers

“The idea of what makes a luxury brand has changed,” Ms. Caldwell said. “A fast zero-to-60 time used to be important for any luxury car. But if you’re buying an all-wheel drive S.U.V., nobody really cares about that.”

Tesla, with its semiautonomous Autopilot technology, has become a serious competitive threat to more established premium makes, she added. “Luxury doesn’t have to be defined by how many cylinders or how many gears you have. For a lot of buyers, being really high tech and having this self-driving capability is luxury.”

 

[Spidy]

Just a few things I noteiced in the last days.

Finally a new VIN in the Model S sheet. 2090xx assigned.
Also interesting that so far no 208xxx VINs have been posted, so probably again a Inventory/Loaner/Demo batch. Even in the 207xxx there is very little activity.

Yesterday, also one car to Korea was build at 206xxx so they are probably almost done with most oversea cars. Especially since they even seem to have build some in May, doesn't seem like much batching this time.

And them I also found this Inventory car in Norway. And noticed that there is also some 205xxx Inventory cars just below that. Also interesting since usually Inventory would show up a bit later in Europe. Will be interesting to see if those were just a few cars or it fills up this month or maybe the just wanted to get a shipment filled up since they also delivered a few X100D in the last week.

Oh and there are now also a lot more CPO cars available in Europe (800).

 

[schonelucht]

I estimate natural order rate to be 84 000 S+X / year. Here is how.

At the end of 2016, 6500 cars were in the pipeline. At the end of the second quarter there were 3500 in the pipeline. Over that time period, Tesla delivered 47 000 cars. The average wait time for a new order at the end of 2016 stood slightly longer than it does today (March for US/April overseas vs August US/September overseas now). Not all of that difference can be attributed to a reduction in order book. At the end of 2016, Tesla was prioritizing HK for end of incentives there, likely setting back regular orders somewhat. Still an order book reduction of at least one week (2000) seems plausible. Putting it all together, that means Tesla received 47 000 - 6500 + 3500 - 2000 net customer orders for new (inventory+custom) cars in 6 months.

This leads credence to the theory that there is a real osborne effect surpressing demand, because this is a lower level than the second half of last year. The release of the model 3 full specs, option release schedule and pricing can't come early enough! It's fairly possible it will unleash a rush on entry level model S's.