Demand

[Zhelko Dimic]

For Model 3, it has to be either $4k or $3.5k to be more similar to the up-charges for consumer level AWD from other vendors. And at the consumer level, I have to wonder why they are ignoring FWD Model 3 (Front wheel drive). Anywhere that has winter climates or heavy rains often, I'd rather be in a FWD car than RWD.

Is this serious question? There are no cars that are both FWD and RWD.
AWD is either RWD or FWD based, it's rare that cars are truly AWD. Some that are built only as AWD like Audi R8, are still pre-dominantly RWD, as a driver's choice.
FWD is usually considered pedestrian choice and sport sedans are RWD.
RWD allows separation of responsibility, front tires steer, rear tires provide push. With FWD, you're asking tires in the front to do all the work, and rear wheels are there only so body doesn't drag on the asphalt.
BTW, I do agree that FWD is inherently better for the snow than RWD, but with modern electronics and snow tires, that's rarely a concern. I've driven RWDs for years in Canada through winters, and my wife has too, whether she knew it or now...

 

[vgrinshpun]

What? Yes, the sales ***did*** recover, to the tee, in 2014. They took a hit in 2015 and 2016, two years ***after*** introduction of Model S. Hmm... What event in 2015 could possibly create slump in 3-Series sales, not unlike (actually a steeper one) the one in 2008 - 2009. Wait, oh, never mind...

Actually, data show that Tesla Model 3 introduction and start of reservations took a ***bigger*** bite out of BMW US sales than crisis of 2008 - 2009. Yes, they should be very concerned.

Here is graphic representation of the data you linked in your post:

View attachment 237883

As an update to the BMW 3-Series sales, here is chart incorporating note indicating that starting in 2014 sales of 4-Series (two door version of 3-Series) were reported separately. The total 3 & 4-Series sales once again, more than recovered from the 2008-2009 slump in 2014, but then, starting in 2015 took a nosedive steeper than the one during the 2008-2009 crisis. This over the background of strong/improving overall auto sales in US. The effect of planned and widely publicly discussed Model 3 in 2015, followed by the opening of reservations in 2016 took a huge tall on BMW 3/4-Series sales.

 

[dennis]

As an update to the BMW 3-Series sales, here is chart incorporating note indicating that starting in 2014 sales of 4-Series (two door version of 3-Series) were reported separately. The total 3 & 4-Series sales once again, more than recovered from the 2008-2009 slump in 2014, but then, starting in 2015 took a nosedive steeper than the one during the 2008-2009 crisis. This over the background of strong/improving overall auto sales in US. The effect of planned and widely publicly discussed Model 3 in 2015, followed by the opening of reservations in 2016 took a huge tall on BMW 3/4-Series sales.

View attachment 237957

The sales charts for the 3/4 series can be explained simply by the introduction of the 5th generation (E90) and 6th generation (F30). The sales peak when all versions of the new variant are available and then gradually decline until the next generation is introduced. Attributing the decline to the reveal of the Tesla Model 3 is equivalent to Anton Wahlman claiming the decline in Model S sales is due to the introduction of the Chevy Bolt. What will be really interesting is the height of the curve when the 7th generation of the 3/4 series is introduced with the Model 3 being in full production.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The sales charts for the 3/4 series can be explained simply by the introduction of the 5th generation (E90) and 6th generation (F30). The sales peak when all versions of the new variant are available and then gradually decline until the next generation is introduced. Attributing the decline to the reveal of the Tesla Model 3 is equivalent to Anton Wahlman claiming the decline in Model S sales is due to the introduction of the Chevy Bolt. What will be really interesting is the height of the curve when the 7th generation of the 3/4 series is introduced with the Model 3 being in full production.

Do not follow you - F30 was introduced in 2011, while peak of sales was three years later - in 2014. E90 was introduced in 2004, but peak of sales was in 2007. Generally, there is some correlation, but not nearly significant enough to explain the sales chart.

Both in 2008 -2009 and 2015 - 2016 there are much stronger forces in play than the run of the mill ebb and flow of refresh cycle.

As for Whalman comparison, do not see any reason to go nuclear on me, and besides, the comparison does not hold water. Introduction of Bolt did not generate 400k $1,000 deposits.

 

[kenliles]

The effect of planned and widely publicly discussed Model 3 in 2015, followed by the opening of reservations in 2016 took a huge t[o]ll on BMW 3/4-Series sales.

a real Beamer Bummer...

 

[vgrinshpun]

a real Beamer Bummer...

Indeed. The sales data do look surreal, and I understand all the skepticism , but I think we are kidding ourselves to try explain this away. I think that tsunami is coming, it really looks ominous for the storied German brands who owned this auto segment for ages. And no, they can't neuter this with a dork mobile riding on bicycle tires (i3). They needed to go all out at electrification a decade ago.

 

[dennis]

Do not follow you - F30 was introduced in 2011, while peak of sales was three years later - in 2014. E90 was introduced in 2004, but peak of sales was in 2007. Generally, there is some correlation, but not nearly significant enough to explain the sales chart.

Both in 2008 -2009 and 2015 - 2016 there are much stronger forces in play than the run of the mill ebb and flow of refresh cycle.

As for Whalman comparison, do not see any reason to go nuclear on me, and besides, the comparison does not hold water. Introduction of Bolt did not generate 400k $1,000 deposits.

It takes several years for BMW to roll out all of the variants (couple, M version, etc.) so the peak comes 2-3 years after introduction, followed by a sharp falloff as pent up demand is satisfied. That is what has made the Model S flattish curve so unusual.

I expect the next generation 3 Series curve will look the same, but with the amplitude significantly diminished by Model 3.

And sorry for the Wahlman reference, no insult intended.

 

[vgrinshpun]

It takes several years for BMW to roll out all of the variants (couple, M version, etc.) so the peak comes 2-3 years after introduction, followed by a sharp falloff as pent up demand is satisfied. That is what has made the Model S flattish curve so unusual.

I expect the next generation 3 Series curve will look the same, but with the amplitude significantly diminished by Model 3.

And sorry for the Wahlman reference, no insult intended.

Sorry, I still am not buying it - look at overall sales in US. The sharp drop off in 2008, which you think is attributable to diminishing pent up demand, actually was mostly driven by a well known macro events. The drop in 2015 - 2016 is even more precipitous, so if one tries to extend analogy with 2008 - 2009, it certainly can't be explained by just ebb and flow of the refresh cycle. The numbers are too drastic, and the overall auto market background is too good.

 

[Spidy]

This is all so pointless. There are so many factors. BMW also launched other Models like the 2-Series. People are buying more SUVs. I mean there are even people who don't buy certain BMWs because they are no longer offered in manual...

Someone asked the same on Reddit. If you go by that BMW doesn't have a lot to worry...
What car are you replacing for a Model 3? • r/teslamotors


Honestly at the moment I'd rater focus on Tesla and how much more Model S&X Inventory they are currently building. Apart from a few non-US orders it seems like they have build inventory for 5 weeks now?

 

[vgrinshpun]

This is all so pointless. There are so many factors. BMW also launched other Models like the 2-Series. People are buying more SUVs. I mean there are even people who don't buy certain BMWs because they are no longer offered in manual...

Someone asked the same on Reddit. If you go by that BMW doesn't have a lot to worry...
What car are you replacing for a Model 3? • r/teslamotors


Honestly at the moment I'd rater focus on Tesla and how much more Model S&X Inventory they are currently building. Apart from a few non-US orders it seems like they have build inventory for 5 weeks now?

Sure. Look at the data. Their sales dropped 42% in 2015 - 2016. Even 2008 -2009 crisis could not do this (36% drop in sales). Wake up and smell the roses. You and apparently many if not all inhabitants of BMW board room are in denial.

 

[Spidy]

Sure. Look at the data. Their sales dropped 42% in 2015 - 2016. Even 2008 -2009 crisis could not do this (36% drop in sales). Wake up and smell the roses. You and apparently many if not all inhabitants of BMW board room are in denial.

 

[schonelucht]

Suspecting a serious bump in Model S demand after this reveal, especially the lower models are very compelling when compared with a fully loaded 3. There must have been quite a number of fence sitters that can now safely order an S. Anything less than a delivery record (S+X) would be a disappointment. Together with the 3, 30k deliveries for this quarter seems (just about) possible.

 

[Spidy]

Even the Model 3 page is now trying to sell you an S

Model 3 | Tesla

 

[Spidy]

Suspecting a serious bump in Model S demand after this reveal, especially the lower models are very compelling when compared with a fully loaded 3. There must have been quite a number of fence sitters that can now safely order an S. Anything less than a delivery record (S+X) would be a disappointment. Together with the 3, 30k deliveries for this quarter seems (just about) possible.

I will be interesting to see. My impression so far has been that a lot of Model 3 reservation holders really seem to be coming from the +/- $25000 car segment (surprised electric seats aren't standard) as there seemed to be a lot of disappointment comments about their desired car configuration ending up costing over 50k instead of being in the lower 40ties. Don't think I saw a single comment of someone deciding to buy a S after this event, although most people probably sleep a night over it.

 

[FlatSix911]

Even the Model 3 page is now trying to sell you an S Model 3 | Tesla

 

[Spidy]

Looks like Tesla has started building US custom orders. As expected they are moving trough a large VIN range pretty quickly.

Oh an 201xxx Inventory VINs in Germany.

 

[Spidy]

Orders for Model S and Model X have also been increasing, both leading up to and following the Model 3 handover event. In July, our weekly net order rate for these vehicles was about 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate. In addition, although too early to draw strong conclusions, we are seeing an even further increase in net Model S orders since the July 28th event. This growing demand gives us even more reason to expect increased deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of this year.

What do you think? Seems like they really looked for a metric that looks good when you usually compare YOY or previous month.

And are Inventory cars orders? I would have said no, but... ?

 

[electracity]

Even the Model 3 page is now trying to sell you an S

Model 3 | Tesla

Someone needs to do a "hitler in the bunker" dissing the model 3.

 

[kenliles]

Someone needs to do a "hitler in the bunker" dissing the model 3.

But someone tell him the Boy Scouts gave him a 5 minutes standing-O.
He'll be fine

 

[FlatSix911]

Another demand lever is pulled ... Tesla reduces the price of Model X, adds more standard options to performance vehicles

Tesla introduced several changes to its online design studio overnight in order to reduce the base price of Model X, its all-electric SUV, and make more options standard on the performance versions of Model S and Model X. Before Tesla launched the Model X, Elon Musk said that the company aimed to make it about $5,000 more expensive than a Model S with similar options. But that never exactly happened until now.

The current base Model S 75D starts at $74,500, while the Model X 75D started at $82,500 until last night. But after a $3,000 price drop today, the Model X 75D now starts at $79,500 with the standard 5-seat configuration or exactly $5,000 more than a Model S with similar options. Tesla explained the price change in a statement: “When we launched Model X 75D, it had a low gross margin. As we’ve achieved efficiencies, we are able to lower the price and pass along more value to our customers.”