Someone over in the forums on the Tesla site is lamenting the fact that he just took delivery of his P85+ a couple weeks ago only for Tesla to announce a "better" version is coming out, the D of couse.
According to
Cars-dot-com... The 2014 AUDI A8 has a depreciation of $27,212 the first year. It has a depreciation of $49,566 over five years. And that's the version that starts at $75,100. Yeah.
The technology seems to be moving so fast in this arena I'm hesitant to invest in it.
Tesla Motors will not stop innovating to satisfy the irrational fears of... anyone. The speed by which they are able to innovate, improve, and release their vehicles is an advantage that should not be wasted.
What if there is some technological breakthrough once the gigafactory is up and running and now the batteries for my Mod 3 are old and outdated and there are new batteries that charge in half the time, last twice as long, take up half the space and cost half as much?
This is solidly in the realm of
"when" not
"what if". Tesla Motors
WILL release vehicles with improved range, performance, and feature sets. The improvements that they are able to devise for Model S and Model X will result in a Model ☰ that exceeds both their initial releases from the outset.
I think they will not take reservations until much later - so that people won't put down a deposit on 3 instead of coughing up the money for S/X. May be 6 months before launch. Unless, they think it would be a good idea to have a large list of reservation holders to call and try to upsell to S/X.
Model ☰ is the goal, the end game, not some sideshow. There is absolutely no reason to protect sales of Model S or Model X. Those are not the mass market vehicles. They will always be manufactured in lower quantities than what is expected for Model ☰. People will always buy the car they want, or can afford.
Even if Model S is sold at 50,000 per year, and Model X is sold at 150,000 per year, that limited 200,000 unit combined production is still far more than Naysayers have ever believed Tesla Motors was capable of doing at all. Meanwhile, the Model ☰ will match that production level before the end of 2018 and will vastly exceed it from 2019 forward.
Given the non-appearance of X on Oct-9, I'm also less optimistic about the 3 delivery date. I think it is likely the regular 3's will come after 2017.
I'm always optimistic. I expected dual motor all wheel drive would come to Model S. I expected battery swap stations to arrive. I expected Supercharger locations to propagate worldwide. I expect even more will be done that we are not yet aware of... All these are done in preparation for Model ☰. If these things are not done, proven to be feasible, then the entire exercise is moot.
The Model X is fully deserving of a release event all its own. I still hope that at least a small handful of reservation holders will receive the Model X before Christmas 2014. It will be tight. Basically they will have to be informed of pricing and options, in secret, before mid-November. They would be brought to Fremont to pick up their Model X about the third week of December. Hmmm... December 18, 2014 is a Thursday night...
Even if there is a relatively slow buildup of weekly production, it will not take long to produce 18,000 of the Model X:
Projected Model X Production Schedule
Rate/Week
| Quantity
| Totals
|
| 100 x 4 | 400 | 400 |
| 200 x 4 | 800 | 1,200 |
| 400 x 4 | 1,600 | 2,800 |
| 800 x 19 | 15,200 | 18,000 |
A 31 week schedule, beginning the first week of July 2015 would be complete long before August 2016. I personally expect production of Model X to begin in January 2015 at the latest, reaching 600-800 per week before June 2015. A further expansion at Fremont in July 2015 might allow for Midel X production to go beyond 1,500 per week.
