I'm actively looking to purchase my first Tesla and due to the similar nature to other technology I have trouble pulling the trigger due to wanting options that are a bit newer (Parking Sensors, Folding Mirrors, Subzero Package and now AutoPilot and Dual Motors) and thinking that new cost per mile may actually be the same as buying used cost per mile due to plummeting resale on older configurations.
I'm a big fan of purchasing cars used still under manufacturer warranty (CPO or Extended) because typically the bulk of the depreciation is taken within the first 1-2 years and then it slows down and my effective cost per mile is reduced. Because the model S has only been on the streets for ~3 years and has nothing else to benchmark I'm trying to 'guestimate' where this depreciation speeds up or slows down or just stays constant.
An example
Does 100k miles and being out of the extended warranty cause the price to plummet? If so what is the price floor? I'd have to imagine the scrap value of a tesla for parts alone is over $20k?
I'm a big fan of purchasing cars used still under manufacturer warranty (CPO or Extended) because typically the bulk of the depreciation is taken within the first 1-2 years and then it slows down and my effective cost per mile is reduced. Because the model S has only been on the streets for ~3 years and has nothing else to benchmark I'm trying to 'guestimate' where this depreciation speeds up or slows down or just stays constant.
An example
- There's a 2013 (Jan ~4k vin) S85 fairly loaded with an extended warranty that's asking $43,5 and had an original sticker of $87,5K + extended warranty cost. It's intriguing to me purely due to the price point but I'm OK paying more for better value per mile on my end
- Factoring the $7500 tax credit this is a residual of around 54% on a pretty high mileage car (if you think of this as a typical car) and to have cost the original owner about $0.50/mile - that has to be higher than competition. While it's likely the depreciation has already slowed down and its unfair ( maybe $1/mile for the first 20k miles and less thereafter so it averages to $0.50/mile)
- I drive 20k miles/year so I'll be out of warranty on this example in 16 months and I'm trying to figure out how much the car will cost ME per mile.
- If the car is worth $30k with 100k miles just as the Model 3 is supposed to be released in early 2017 (not holding my breath) it would have effectively cost me $0.50/mile and to me that makes no sense because that's the same depreciation as the original owner and I'm not driving it from new.
- If there is some sort of price floor at $35K even with 100k miles my cost would be $0.31/mile so I'd be OK in this situation.
- I'd likely keep the car until 120-135k miles (2-3 years) and if the price truly hits a floor of $30k or so my cost per mile can be below $0.25. You're talking about a 6 year old tesla at that time that is out of warranty for several pricey components (air suspension, pano roof, etc) but still has 2 years left on the 'unlimted mileage' power train warranty so it would have to be worth something decent.
- If there is some sort of price floor at $35K even with 100k miles my cost would be $0.31/mile so I'd be OK in this situation.
- I'd likely keep the car until 120-135k miles (2-3 years) and if the price truly hits a floor of $30k or so my cost per mile can be below $0.25. You're talking about a 6 year old tesla at that time that is out of warranty for several pricey components (air suspension, pano roof, etc) but still has 2 years left on the 'unlimted mileage' power train warranty so it would have to be worth something decent.
Does 100k miles and being out of the extended warranty cause the price to plummet? If so what is the price floor? I'd have to imagine the scrap value of a tesla for parts alone is over $20k?
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