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Depreciation on 3 year old Model S 90d

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The 58k for 8k mi is exactly what I'm referring. A new P3D+ with AP and all the options I'd want is 60.3k with all the fees. But would have come with a $1875 fed tax credit and $5k CO tax credit that a used car would not have. After tax credits, a dual motor would have been around $44k so I would expect those to go for high 30's to low 40's in CO, but they aren't. They are high 40's like you said. I don't want to buy new though because of the much higher registration costs. Hoping the Model Y fixes this with a flood of 3's hitting the market, but if not and there is another sizeable price drop, I might bite the bullet with my first new car purchase.

I think the smartest thing to do is get an early Model Y slightly used (<2000 miles). Should be about 5-7% less than new. From there, drive it for a couple of years, and it will still hold it's value. You'd probably be able to sell it for about 15% of new at that point. Cheapest vehicle you'd ever own. Now that's assuming Tesla doesn't drop the prices like a rock as they did with the Model S... Model X's are still holding their value like this, as well as the better 3 configs.
 
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I think the smartest thing to do is get an early Model Y slightly used (<2000 miles). Should be about 5-7% less than new. From there, drive it for a couple of years, and it will still hold it's value. You'd probably be able to sell it for about 15% of new at that point. Cheapest vehicle you'd ever own. Now that's assuming Tesla doesn't drop the prices like a rock as they did with the Model S... Model X's are still holding their value like this, as well as the better 3 configs.

Probably not.

If the Model 3 is an indicator, early cars will cost much more than later ones.