Depreciation on LR RWD

[spurs10]

I have been thinking lately how’s the LR RWD will depreciate in a few year. With the introduction of mid range, it seems to make the LR RWD less attractive, and per Musk email to employee yesterday, his emphasis to lower the cost of model 3 makes me wonder how much is our LR RWD will cost down the road. I am not planning to keep my car for 10 year. I am hoping to trade it in for a model Y.

What you guys think?

 

[AviP]

My guess is about 20% down in the first year due to price reductions, fed tax loss and standard depreciation. If your vehicle is in a cold state such as BC, it could be worse because of the deeper electric cycles. The primary factor for cars over 8 years old will be battery replacement costs. Time will tell how BEVs fare in depreciation.

 

[commasign]

I think it’s a unicorn in a good way. The actual EPA rating for LR RWD is 334 miles which is significantly higher than the AWD and Performance variants which are actually rated for 308 miles (Tesla advertises all long range variants as 310 miles for simplicity and to avoid confusion). Also, as Enhanced Autopilot improves and full self driving features are added, the value of the car will likely stabilize or at least not depreciate as much as a similar non-Tesla. So I don’t think the introduction of the mid range and standard range variants will negatively affect the value of the long range rear wheel drive cars.

 

[TeeEmCee]

Tesla advertises all long range variants as 310 miles for simplicity and to avoid confusion

Hehe, that’s like buying something for $7.50 and, for the sake of simplicity and to avoid confusion, you receive $10 change after you handed them a $20 bill.

 

[corduroy]

Range is king, so I feel the LR RWD has significantly more value that the mid range.

 

[ebmcs03]

How’s the used LR market now? Enough used model 3 LR being sold yet?

 

[ewoodrick]

I have been thinking lately how’s the LR RWD will depreciate in a few year. With the introduction of mid range, it seems to make the LR RWD less attractive, and per Musk email to employee yesterday, his emphasis to lower the cost of model 3 makes me wonder how much is our LR RWD will cost down the road. I am not planning to keep my car for 10 year. I am hoping to trade it in for a model Y.

What you guys think?

Honestly, I'm thinking that all of your conclusions are inaccurate. I suspect that the LR RWD will be less attractive because of the other models, it might even be more attractive, especially in the winter when the MR folks see their range decrease. The LR is built for longer range trips and fits best as the primary vehicle in a family. As opposed to the mid-range, which is best for the commuter vehicle.

Yes, the decrease in tax credit will impact it, but it has always impacted EVs.

The cheaper vehicle is for a different market. These folks are more cost constrained and won't be getting autopilot.

 

[tashtibet]

depreciation also depends on the factor how much money you add into the vehicle-ICE vehicles depreciates more due to fuel cost, parts, service & maintenance etc-while EVs do not depreciate in that pace.

 

[dgodfrey]

depreciation also depends on the factor how much money you add into the vehicle-ICE vehicles depreciates more due to fuel cost, parts, service & maintenance etc-while EVs do not depreciate in that pace.

Well, to be more accurate you might say, "Tesla EV's do not depreciate at that pace." The depreciation of the Leaf was horrendous.

 

[pipestem]

My guess is about 20% down in the first year due to price reductions, fed tax loss and standard depreciation. If your vehicle is in a cold state such as BC, it could be worse because of the deeper electric cycles. The primary factor for cars over 8 years old will be battery replacement costs. Time will tell how BEVs fare in depreciation.

Fed tax loss makes the used cars more valuable, marginally. The new alternative is now more expensive, increasing demand for the used cars.

 

[roblab]

Well, to be more accurate you might say, "Tesla EV's do not depreciate at that pace." The depreciation of the Leaf was horrendous.

...and to be even MORE accurate you might say, "Tesla EVs do not ...." It's an English language thingy.

 

[spurs10]

Also wanna added to the point is Tesla might furthe

Honestly, I'm thinking that all of your conclusions are inaccurate. I suspect that the LR RWD will be less attractive because of the other models, it might even be more attractive, especially in the winter when the MR folks see their range decrease. The LR is built for longer range trips and fits best as the primary vehicle in a family. As opposed to the mid-range, which is best for the commuter vehicle.

Yes, the decrease in tax credit will impact it, but it has always impacted EVs.

The cheaper vehicle is for a different market. These folks are more cost constrained and won't be getting autopilot.

What conclusion? Just have a couple thoughts in mind and want ppl to share their thought. Not making any conclusion or assumptions.

 

[geometro]

I posted this elsewhere, but I was contemplating trading in my LR for AWD. Car is about 8 months old and with 10k miles on it... Tesla offered $35.5k, so I didn't make the move. Seems rather low, but perhaps they just don't want to deal with the hassle. KBB has it in the mid-40s.

 

[azred]

I have one of the early LR RWD’s, built in Jan 2018. I also have a RWD Model S. And I plan to keep both for ten years or more.

As electric cars industry matures, I think the range of the MR and SR Model 3’s will be the biggest gripe of their owners and will also be a resale problem. Right now a rated range of 260 or 220 may look pretty good, especially when stacked up against the competition. But not for much longer.

As for the original poster’s plan to trade for a Model Y, I hope he/she understands it is silly to worry about depreciation if you are planning to flip any new cars in 0-4 years. You will get killed on the flip no matter what new car you are talking about. If you don’t want to get killed on flips then buy cars like 1995-98 993 Porsches that are appreciating. Driving a sweet 993 for a couple years would be a great way to wait for a Model Y and you could probably make a buck when you flip it in two years. They aren’t cheap but neither are new Model 3’s.

 

[Shygar]

I think it will hold pretty well until the Model Y comes out.

 

[ebmcs03]

I think it will hold pretty well until the Model Y comes out.

Coming out next year. We’re screwed!

 

[CCIE]

If you care about efficiency & range, the LR RWD is the best Model 3 made to date. If they never sell it in the US again, then it should be one of the more sought configurations for people who care about those things.

Buying the LR RWD has worked out great for me so far:

1. I qualify for $7500 federal credit and $3000 CT credit, neither of which is available at those levels to current buyers.
2. Color was $1000 when I bought.
3. Destination+Doc Fee was $1000 when I bought.
4. EPA range is 334 miles, which it easily exceeded in warm temps. In cold temps real-world range is more like 290... still not bad.
5. Does well in snow with winter tires (which would be needed for AWD anyway, because AWD doesn't help you stop).

 

[SR22pilot]

I have an AWD with 19" rims and a RWD LR with Aeros. The RWD is the trip car. It has noticeably better range. The AWD is quicker. I think the LR RWD is a wonderful car. Especially in winter, range is king in an EV.

 

[Chancellor32]

Just bought a LR RWD with EAP and 19inch rims with 2800 miles on it for 48k! Thought it was a steal as previous owner paid 57k before taxes. They seem to be holding their value well but I agree once the Y comes out we are screwed haha.

 

[novox77]

4. EPA range is 334 miles, which it easily exceeded in warm temps. In cold temps real-world range is more like 290... still not bad.

I frequently got 400 miles during the warm season. amazing car.

Friend of mine just got the MR, and I was sharing with him what to expect with efficiency, forgetting that they aren't rated the same. He was not able to hit my Wh/mi numbers...