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Depreciation on older ('14-15) S over the next 5 years?

IdahoRenegade

Member
Apr 5, 2021
14
-2
83860
Hi All. I'm a recent convert to being a Tesla fanboy, though I don't have one at this time. I'm not economically in a position to buy new, mid $30K range is about it for me. So...I'm seeing quite a few 14-15 model S cars in this price range, including some dual-motors (which I'd prefer for snow/ice). On many ICE cars I'd figure they'd hit the flat part of the depreciation curve and would not drop TOO badly over the next 5 years (assuming 15K miles per year). Anyone care to pull out their crystal ball and make a guess what such an S would do in that time frame? From one standpoint, I'd think it would hold value better than an ICE car, since there are fewer parts/systems to fail and far less money spent on routine maintenance. On the other hand-ICE cars haven't changed much in the last 5 years, and likely won't in the next five (sure some improved safety features, but a new car won't really DO anything an older one won't). With Teslas, and EVs in general, newer vehicles are continually improving the basics of the vehicle-range, charging time, reliability, performance. Does this tend to make older ones tank hard-much like an older cell phone, that you can't give away? Thanks for any thoughts.
 

ucmndd

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2016
6,715
12,609
California
since there are fewer parts/systems to fail and far less money spent on routine maintenance.
This bit of EV lore really hasn’t come to pass. Teslas are very expensive to fix and repair. The earlier cars have more failure points and their care and feeding is more like a typical luxury car of that age (i.e. $$$$) than any other ~$30k used ICE.

I don’t see a lot of reason to believe the depreciation curve will be significantly different than any other ICE competitor of that vintage.
 
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seclinton

Member
May 25, 2015
391
272
Newark, CA
Well more or less, yes, Tesla's lose value right out the door like every other car. Really depends on a few factors. If the car has unlimited Supercharging, that would be a benfit to keeping the '14/'15 cars value a little higher during depreciation. Fewer parts fail on a Tesla but when they do its $500-$4500 to fix them, and of course the whale being the battery pack at $12-$20k I suppose. For example, MCU 1 on '14/'15 models will FAIL and fail miserably if not now than soon from bubbles in the display to the dredded EMMC issue. Not to mention the sluggish performance the Tegra based system become once the EMMC fills up before dieing a quick death. MCU 2 will set you back $1500 plus another $500 for the radio upgrade to Keep XM if that's your thing. Tesla's eat tires for breakfast, so expect to replace them more often. Door handles fail, heck even the rmeotes fail after a few years and need to be replaced. But that being said, if you can find a private party '14/'15 P85, P85+, P85D/P90D, go for it. I paid $39k out the door $42 in May 2018 for a replacement '14 P85+ after totalling my '13 P85 in the rain. P85 purchased 2015 for $68k, P85+ purchase 2018 for $39K. New was somewhere north of $90-100k. So I think most of the value was lost on the first sale and Tesla choosing to not provide CPO refurb like they did at first. This of course is for a RWD no AP. I think AP1 adds a little value, but look for a car with AP1, MCU2 upgrade and Rev B or newer batterty pack and you should be happy. I'd venture over the next 5 years my car would sell for about $20-$25k as a floor so long as it's kept up and in proper working condition and quality. Long story short, I got a P85+ for steal and think it'll hold value well enough to make it my son's first car when he turns 16 in 4 years. Won't cry over it if he crashes it as long as he doesn't get hurt.
 

IdahoRenegade

Member
Apr 5, 2021
14
-2
83860
Thanks for the info and feedback. I had read of some common failures (door handles!) and unfortunately displays. Have battery failures and drive motors been a major issue? The battery price is pretty insane, but if it's very rare, or if Tesla "mans up" and helps out it might make it worth the risk. Thing is, these days, ICE vehicles cost an arm and a leg to fix too. I have a Grand Cherokee diesel-prices to repair the emissions crap the feds mandate are insane. To say nothing of the cost of turbocharger components, cooling system, intercoolers, transmission, transfer case, differentials, etc! And unfortunately a new display for one of those is far from cheap-though likely not in Tesla range. Even on my last rig (Nissan Xterra) though mechanically very good to me, I had to drop $2k on cat-cons.

On a different note-given that they are being built in much greater volume, are replacement parts and repairs on model 3s (granted not that much history) significantly less expensive than an S? I prefer the S (I think-haven't driven either) for the size and hatchback.
 

FoxSTL2HOU

Member
Nov 12, 2018
496
288
HOU
From speaking to dealers and professional appraisers as part of my collision lawsuit, my 2015 85D was around 55% of its MSRP pre-collision at the 3 yr mark. How much was natural depreciation vs. newer Teslas getting improvements (refresh nosecone, 100D, MCU2, AP2, premium package made standard), not sure.

From recent Carvana/Carmax/Vroom appraisals, from both age and having a collision on record, just shy of the 6 yr mark, I am at 20% of MSRP. My appraiser determined 15% of that to be from the collision at the time, so without it I may be at the 35% mark, which tracks the prices you are seeing.

Service-wise, I have spent more on non-collision-related repairs for the S (just shy of 6 years on the road) than I did my previous two ICEs combined (just shy of 13 years combined on the road). Tesla $195/hr labor rate for the win.
 
Oct 10, 2019
392
191
So-Cal
Ok here we go, possible soapbox i dono well see how much into the weeds i get sorry in advance...

I have a 2014 P85D i currently have 116k miles on it. It has the original battery and original drive units. my 100% charge is 230 miles. I have gone in to the service center a few times, while i was under warranty i would go there for all kinds of random stuff like the seat squeaks against the center console. Now that my warranty is long past expired i only go there for things like parts or when i got the MCU2 upgrade. Tesla sells a lot of parts but sometimes they wont sell them if it is connected to a primary part, like the HV system or the steering.

For example like 6 months ago my charge port door sensor went out, whatever its an $80 part. I set up an appt and they want to change the charge port out along with the door sensor and i say no do a diag and when you realize it is only the door sensor i want to buy that part and DIY at home. Well it is a door sensor but its part of the HV system so they have to do the repair but they waived the diag fee because i was right but it was $120 in service fees on top of the $80 part that i could easily do at home safely.

Similar thing when i did the conversion to a heated wheel. I bought all the parts from a salvage tesla online and i admit it was my fault i broke the clockspring and needed a new one. You cant just buy a clockspring you have to buy the whole SCCM which was $250. Again i go down there and say i want this part and the say no its a restricted part and we have to install it. But they waive the service fee because they know its a stupid problem to have and are nice people at my SC at least.

But on another occasion my louvers went out, i was 80% sure it was the louvers so i had them do the diag and it was thankfully. I paid the diag fee and bought the louvers from them home and install in my driveway in a couple hours.

Also door handles yes they break but its not that big of a deal, its a minor inconvenience for a couple days till you get it fixed but not that bad. I have had 2 handles go out, both times it was the gear that broke and i have DIY the fix with the kit from EV tuning, which comes with a higher quality gear and better wires for the switches. Basically its a it breaks once and never again fix. I have 2 more kits at home ready to install whenever the other 2 handles go out but they are still factory parts.

So as you can see service is a interesting animal ya win some ya lose some.

As far as value for the car i bought mine used with 20k miles for $100k, about 1.5 years later a coworker buys the exact same car only its a may 15 and mine is a dec 14 car but other than that exact same car with 45k miles and he paid $47k for it. However, that seems to be the current point for the value, it has been sitting around $30-40k for my model for quite a while now. I haven't gotten into an accident (yet, knock on wood) but if i do the car is paid off and i have read a lot about diminished value claims and i also have free SC for the life of the car, and with the amount i drive that can add up to a good chunk of change as part of a diminished value as well. But i plan on keeping this car for as long as it still runs. I dont see the value dropping too much anytime soon. Also you mention the $30k range being your budget, why not save up for like a year or so and then you have a large down payment allowing you to take out a bigger loan. I saved for about 2 years and put $30k down on my car and paid it off in just shy of 3 years. Its all proper budgeting, not piss away money on crap you want vs need, (fast food, crap off amazon, exc.) Take public transit or ride a bicycle to save gas money/maintenance costs of your current car.

Thanks for coming to my ted talk.
 

beatle

Active Member
Aug 31, 2019
1,176
620
Springfield, VA
The major components are not $2k though, they're $10k to $20k. It seems like the depreciation flattens around $20k for a running and driving car as the battery and drive units are still fairly valuable as salvage.

There are still plenty of components that Tesla shares with normal cars: suspension, brakes, interior, A/C, sunroof, motorized hatch. And many that are more expensive or non-existent on an ICE car: battery charger(s), DC/DC converter, battery contactors, pyro fuse, charge port, etc.

Like most cars, volume generally helps keep part costs down and incentivizes the cottage industry to repair them (provided Tesla doesn't continue to actively block them.) The 3 should be less expensive to maintain over time.
 

jboy210

Supporting Member
Dec 2, 2016
5,219
3,242
Northern California
The major components are not $2k though, they're $10k to $20k. It seems like the depreciation flattens around $20k for a running and driving car as the battery and drive units are still fairly valuable as salvage.

There are still plenty of components that Tesla shares with normal cars: suspension, brakes, interior, A/C, sunroof, motorized hatch. And many that are more expensive or non-existent on an ICE car: battery charger(s), DC/DC converter, battery contactors, pyro fuse, charge port, etc.

Like most cars, volume generally helps keep part costs down and incentivizes the cottage industry to repair them (provided Tesla doesn't continue to actively block them.) The 3 should be less expensive to maintain over time.
That is a good point about the price of components. Often the parts that make up the car are worth more than the car itself on a used market. And the parts lose value at a much lower rate because of this.
 

IdahoRenegade

Member
Apr 5, 2021
14
-2
83860
The major components are not $2k though, they're $10k to $20k. It seems like the depreciation flattens around $20k for a running and driving car as the battery and drive units are still fairly valuable as salvage.

There are still plenty of components that Tesla shares with normal cars: suspension, brakes, interior, A/C, sunroof, motorized hatch. And many that are more expensive or non-existent on an ICE car: battery charger(s), DC/DC converter, battery contactors, pyro fuse, charge port, etc.

Like most cars, volume generally helps keep part costs down and incentivizes the cottage industry to repair them (provided Tesla doesn't continue to actively block them.) The 3 should be less expensive to maintain over time.
Other than the battery, what other components are in the $20K range? I do agree part prices for Teslas are utterly stupid, and very much a rip-off. Seems like I read about $1700 half shafts and $1200 tail lights. But as far as the ICE comparison, what's a transmission run in one of these new, premium vehicles? 15 years ago I was reading about $5-6K for a trans in an Xterra (what I had at the time) and that was a basic 4 speed. These modern 8, 9 and 10 speeds, with all the bells and whistles have got to be up there as well. I'd guess a brand new ICE engine would cost more than a new electric motor for a Tesla as well, but really don't know. Not trying to justify what Tesla charges, but all the manufacturers have gone insane!

Concerning my purchase thoughts-I've decided to shelve them for the moment. Used car prices like so many things are at all-time highs, and I don't NEED one right now. In a few months some sanity may return. At worst, sounds like Biden is going to bump up welfare payments for all EVs and allow them for Teslas again, that should drive the prices on used ones down considerably. I'm thinking a used M3 makes more sense for me-higher build volume should drive parts and service prices down.
 

IdahoRenegade

Member
Apr 5, 2021
14
-2
83860
OK, I must be dense-how do I edit an existing post? And while we're at it, how do you "like" or thumbs up someone's post?

OK, back to the car-are Tesla service parts being sold at your local auto parts stores, like every other vehicle? Seems like they would be by now.
 

sorka

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
8,169
5,944
Merced, CA
An S D that has an expired battery/du warranty is worth whatever it is minus $22K for a battery and $15K x 2 for DUs since that's about what each DU costs to replace. So whatever the book value is minus $52K + tax.

In my opinion, if you can't buy it for close to free, then it's not worth it.

If Tesla had a reasonable out of warranty replacement program for these parts that cost over $50K together for a single replacement each, then that would be one thing, but until then these cars will be worth parts once the media and the general public realize just how much these cars will cost to fix out of warranty.
 

Crutonius

Member
Sep 12, 2020
178
155
Salt Lake City, Utah
Other than the battery, what other components are in the $20K range? I do agree part prices for Teslas are utterly stupid, and very much a rip-off. Seems like I read about $1700 half shafts and $1200 tail lights. But as far as the ICE comparison, what's a transmission run in one of these new, premium vehicles? 15 years ago I was reading about $5-6K for a trans in an Xterra (what I had at the time) and that was a basic 4 speed. These modern 8, 9 and 10 speeds, with all the bells and whistles have got to be up there as well. I'd guess a brand new ICE engine would cost more than a new electric motor for a Tesla as well, but really don't know. Not trying to justify what Tesla charges, but all the manufacturers have gone insane!

Concerning my purchase thoughts-I've decided to shelve them for the moment. Used car prices like so many things are at all-time highs, and I don't NEED one right now. In a few months some sanity may return. At worst, sounds like Biden is going to bump up welfare payments for all EVs and allow them for Teslas again, that should drive the prices on used ones down considerably. I'm thinking a used M3 makes more sense for me-higher build volume should drive parts and service prices down.
There's the battery and the drive unit. I think I've seen quotes to replace the DU somewhere about 12-15k.

This is anecdotal but when my previous car, a 2001 acura, broke down, they quoted me 6k for the transmission. That's without labor. This car had a blue book value of a ps4 at this point.

Here's the thing to keep in mind about Tesla's service centers. For the entire history of the company their job was just to service the warranties which is distinctly different than servicing out of warranty vehicles.

Here's an example about how this leads to absurd quotes to fix things. The early models had a bearing in the DU that was defective. Their solution, replace the entire DU. This makes sense if you're servicing a warranty. But now that's their standard procedure to fix the DU. If their priority was to fix this problem with some regard to a budget then they would have focused on the bearing.

We're in a strange place when it comes to Tesla service. Their oldest cars are only now coming out of warranty. These out of warranty repairs are sort of a new thing to them. These posters that warn you about 20k repairs aren't wrong but it would be very pessimistic to assume that the situation won't improve.
 
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sorka

Well-Known Member
Feb 28, 2015
8,169
5,944
Merced, CA
There's the battery and the drive unit. I think I've seen quotes to replace the DU somewhere about 12-15k.

This is anecdotal but when my previous car, a 2001 acura, broke down, they quoted me 6k for the transmission. That's without labor. This car had a blue book value of a ps4 at this point.

Here's the thing to keep in mind about Tesla's service centers. For the entire history of the company their job was just to service the warranties which is distinctly different than servicing out of warranty vehicles.

Here's an example about how this leads to absurd quotes to fix things. The early models had a bearing in the DU that was defective. Their solution, replace the entire DU. This makes sense if you're servicing a warranty. But now that's their standard procedure to fix the DU. If their priority was to fix this problem with some regard to a budget then they would have focused on the bearing.

We're in a strange place when it comes to Tesla service. Their oldest cars are only now coming out of warranty. These out of warranty repairs are sort of a new thing to them. These posters that warn you about 20k repairs aren't wrong but it would be very pessimistic to assume that the situation won't improve.

I've been a Tesla owner for 6 years. Nothing has improved but lots has gotten worse over time.
Customer service especially communication and transparency.
Vehicle service (no disrespect to the employees which have mostly been great). Can't even call on the phone anymore to talk to anyone in service. Can only communicate through app which doesn't work if you're car is disconnected from the network.
Batterygate.
Chargegate (Just updated my 3 year old V8 to V10 and now it takes 50% longer to charge with the new software caps).
Every software update introducing new bugs and not fixing old bugs. USB music is almost completely busted since November.
MCU1 owners are totally screwed by the current software.
 
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David.85D

Active Member
Oct 29, 2016
1,437
1,185
USA
OK, back to the car-are Tesla service parts being sold at your local auto parts stores, like every other vehicle? Seems like they would be by now.
I’ve been watching it and Rockauto is just now carrying some Tesla parts. Wheel hubs, suspension links, etc.

I tried contacting the manufacturer of the half shafts (their trademark is on the boots) but they wouldn’t tell me anything. Seems to me that Tesla asks/requires/etc siilence from the Oem part suppliers.
 

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