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Another piece of the puzzle. When I was at the Hawthorne supercharger on Tuesday, the guy I was talking to said they had just said hi to a new hire who had started work that day. He was a clay sculpture artist. Soooo ... Presumably they are still doing external design work on the model X.
Well, unless there is a serious redesign (and why would there be one on such a beautiful car?), i do not think they would be making clays of X anymore. They would be building alphas/betas.
So this is very interesting indeed as it sounds way to early for Model E. Unless they are not telling us something.
Besides, why aren't they just 3D printing the cars at this point? :tongue:
Why way too early for Model E? We're imagining a 2016 launch or so? I presume it takes a year to manufacture from prototypes to production, and probably a year from design to prototypes. So we're at 2014, and you want your designers to be up to speed and aware of constraints and options before then. Late 2013 isn't far off to start.
During the last earnings call Elon said they are focusing on improving (manufacturing efficiency of) S and finalizing the design of X. Either at that call, or a few months earler (can't remember when exactly) he said Gen3 at this point is a sketch on the back of a napkin. That's why I doubt they would be this far ahead with E. I would love it if they were, though...
BTW, on Tuesday in Germany Elon said that they are still finishing up with a clay model of the Model X. So exterior changes from the prototypes we've seen are a given. What changes those are I have no idea. Why someone in the audience didn't ask him, I have no idea. Anyways, he also said that right now, Gen III exists as concept drawings only. Clay models for that will be next year with a prototype in about 18 months. Gen III would have less luxury features (the example he gave is maybe only one screen instead of two).
ToddRLockwood
Active Member
I'll be interested to see if they've tweaked the front end of the Model X to moderate the Angry Bird resemblance. It's a subtle problem, but could be a turn-off for some customers. The Model S has a very different face.
Or make some people VERY happy! As you can see from my Avatar, I'm loving it! Its a bold, I mean business kinda look to me. :love:
NigelM
Recovering Member
I realize this is speculation, but the past week or so I've started to think they might be splitting the Model X into two versions. Perhaps more clearly stated, they may be making the Model X more SUV and less some new combination best of SUV and minivan, AND adding a wagon on this platform in about another years time.
This would be consistent with the apparent decision to go AWD only on the Model X as Elon said in London this week.
- Elon Musk
So perhaps a more SUV like AWD only Model X for production, and a follow on wagon to complement with a rear wheel drive option.
As I said, I'd already been wondering about this for several reasons, but foremost
- I think Tesla now can see demand of 50K for each S and X. "Splitting" what would have been X into two forms makes much more sense when you are talking about 50K or so X demand rather than 20K with a question mark as it probably looked until this year. (fwiw, I think S, X, wagon, could easily have 10K more total sales/year than S and current X at $10K profit per car, this could probably pay for itself within 2-3 years if my guess of $2-300 million in development costs is reasonable. there would be cost savings in not having to develop a rear wheel drive SUV model X).
- have you had a look at this, I want one even more than the CPO roadster I'm working toward!
Model S Wagon? - Page 10
- go back to that wagon link and look at the polling numbers on that design (admittedly not a huge sample, but over 100)
- Tesla is in a much stronger cash position... they don't have to try to hit a homerun with a new form factor that's all things to all people. They can focus on having people adopt to the idea of an EV and not worry about their adopting to a new form factor.
- mixed feelings about current Model X design. While in this thread (presumably current reservation holders in large part) it seemed clear to me the majority who posted did not want a major move towards SUV, there were those that did. furthermore, if the sample were less tilted to X reservation holders, the interest in more of an SUV might be greater and we already see indication of strong demand for a wagon.
- Elon's Eloness... such as overdelivering, being willing to make major changes/admit mistakes (ie 40KWH car), placing great importance on listening to negative feedback, pushing the limits of his resources,...
- Tesla's basic mission, expedite adoption of EVs. I think the wagon and a large SUV would win more hearts and minds that Tesla and EVs are not going away, AND "they make a product I want!"
This would be consistent with the apparent decision to go AWD only on the Model X as Elon said in London this week.
- Elon Musk
So perhaps a more SUV like AWD only Model X for production, and a follow on wagon to complement with a rear wheel drive option.
As I said, I'd already been wondering about this for several reasons, but foremost
- I think Tesla now can see demand of 50K for each S and X. "Splitting" what would have been X into two forms makes much more sense when you are talking about 50K or so X demand rather than 20K with a question mark as it probably looked until this year. (fwiw, I think S, X, wagon, could easily have 10K more total sales/year than S and current X at $10K profit per car, this could probably pay for itself within 2-3 years if my guess of $2-300 million in development costs is reasonable. there would be cost savings in not having to develop a rear wheel drive SUV model X).
- have you had a look at this, I want one even more than the CPO roadster I'm working toward!
Model S Wagon? - Page 10
- go back to that wagon link and look at the polling numbers on that design (admittedly not a huge sample, but over 100)
- Tesla is in a much stronger cash position... they don't have to try to hit a homerun with a new form factor that's all things to all people. They can focus on having people adopt to the idea of an EV and not worry about their adopting to a new form factor.
- mixed feelings about current Model X design. While in this thread (presumably current reservation holders in large part) it seemed clear to me the majority who posted did not want a major move towards SUV, there were those that did. furthermore, if the sample were less tilted to X reservation holders, the interest in more of an SUV might be greater and we already see indication of strong demand for a wagon.
- Elon's Eloness... such as overdelivering, being willing to make major changes/admit mistakes (ie 40KWH car), placing great importance on listening to negative feedback, pushing the limits of his resources,...
- Tesla's basic mission, expedite adoption of EVs. I think the wagon and a large SUV would win more hearts and minds that Tesla and EVs are not going away, AND "they make a product I want!"
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I don't see how the new Model X cannot seat at least seven adults comfortably with adequate spacing between third row and the back hatch. The Model S is equipped with seven seats (including two child seats). The Model X will replace my '08 Honda Pilot (seats 8 adults). The '08 Pilot is shorter than my '98 Accord which it replaced. The Model X can still have excellent aerodynamics as none better than Tesla to cut the fat out of the block (just look at the Model S) and with no ICE engine up front, there is much more room to play to satisfy adequate space for seven adult passengers.
Full size 7-8 passenger SUV (Model X), Mid-size 5 passenger SUV (Model E-X), Mid-size 5 passenger sedan (Model E-S), full size 5+2 passenger wagon (Model W), truck (Model T), econo car (Model PJ), Convertible (Model C), New Roadster (Model R)
Patience please. Tesla is just getting started. I believe in the EV Revolution, one in which Tesla Motors will play a big part.
Best,
Words of HABIT
PS. Please forgive my Model naming conventions.
Full size 7-8 passenger SUV (Model X), Mid-size 5 passenger SUV (Model E-X), Mid-size 5 passenger sedan (Model E-S), full size 5+2 passenger wagon (Model W), truck (Model T), econo car (Model PJ), Convertible (Model C), New Roadster (Model R)
Patience please. Tesla is just getting started. I believe in the EV Revolution, one in which Tesla Motors will play a big part.
Best,
Words of HABIT
PS. Please forgive my Model naming conventions.
I think what you call Model E should be Model C (people may want to buy a Compact, but you wouldn't want to be seen in an "Economy" car, especially if you paid $40K for it). Wagon will more likely be Model M or Model V (for Mini Van). Also, I think Model T is taken
.The current prototype has the back hatch so sloped, you can't put adults too far back. And for a car that has no front engine, the model S currently uses up a lot of room in the front for the frunk and various car systems. If Tesla were to square off the back, then yes, plenty of room. But the current prototype doesn't do that.
Sorry for snipping your quote, but why do you believe the X needs seating behind the 3rd row to accommodate 7 adults comfortably?
NigelM
Recovering Member
I think he meant that he doesn't see why the X couldn't accommodate 7 adults and still leave adequate space behind the 3rd seat and hatch.
From the videos and the prototype at the factory it seems there is s ton of luggage space behind the third row.
