Batteries lose range. Hard fact. Studies I've read is 6% or so first year and then about 1% each year thereafter, and most complaints I read are in that ballpark, so in the first FIVE years expect to lose near ten percent. OR MORE, as you say, due to cold weather, driving in rain, driving in mountains, hot rodding, etc, etc.
People who buy 40 kW, 60 kW, 75 kW batteries are going to wish they had paid a little more for more battery, because it doesn't take too many years before your range really shortens. Even the Model 3 with 320 miles of range will soon give "only" 290. I know, <sob>. (Them's tears, not cussing)
I think this is why superchargers are filling in the gaps so chargers are only about 100 miles apart.