Devil's advocate

[kptesl]

I've been a longtime Tesla fan and I believe they will make this happen. I just think to get there will be harder than it looks. Let's not forget, in the initial master plan, the Roadster was supposed to be expensive, and the model S medium priced (at $50k). Then they increased battery capacity and options to make it start at $70k.

These things make me believe that they will deliver:
-the design is incredible- simple and uncomplicated while beautiful and upscale. I think production cost of chassis, dash, even the glass roof (since at least in the base version the glass looks to be stationary and the trunk has a lid rather than a hatch)
-with the size and aerodynamic profile, they should be able to get away with a smaller battery for the same range when compared to 5 seater competition
-the number of preorders will give them incredible motivation to deliver. Make or break situation.
-since many reservation holders are fans/believers rather than normal customers (who else would put a deposit years in advance), they will likely be forgiving of slight delays or slight hiccups in the product

These are real challenges they will face:
-starting production quickly and hoping there is no significant inflation between now and then (increasing the price from 35k will be a pr nightmare even if only to adjust for inflation. They should really stop taking new reservations at 35k. Depending on their timeline and ramp, new reservations is like locking in for 35k in 2019 or 2020. I think legally they could get out of it, since the $1000 is not a deposit on the car, but a reservation placeholder. But still- pr nightmare.

-they have never released a model on time and on price. So far they have only shared a vision, it's not proven that that car can be built with those specs for that price.

I hope my concerns are proven wrong. I have 2 reservations and can't wait to get my hands on them.

 

[S'toon]

Stop Assuming Tesla's Model 3 Will Be Late -- The Motley Fool

 

[ecarfan]

They should really stop taking new reservations at 35k. Depending on their timeline and ramp, new reservations is like locking in for 35k in 2019 or 2020. I think legally they could get out of it, since the $

You appear to be assuming that the $1K Model 3 reservation cost guarantees the person reserving a fixed price for the car. I think that is incorrect. All the reservation gets you is a place in line. It does not guarantee a price, or even specific place in line. You're just in the line. And it's a long one. Get in line soon or wait until 2020 to get a Model 3.

 

[kptesl]

You appear to be assuming that the $1K Model 3 reservation cost guarantees the person reserving a fixed price for the car. I think that is incorrect. All the reservation gets you is a place in line. It does not guarantee a price, or even specific place in line. You're just in the line. And it's a long one. Get in line soon or wait until 2020 to get a Model 3.

I'm assuming that they will increase in price, which I why I said that it's a placeholder not a deposit. But I do think that when Elon gets on stage and says this car will cost $35,000, you can reserve one online now, many people are under the impression that they will get the car for $35k. Which is why I think it will cause a PR nightmare, when in 3 years people that have put down $1k for 3 years are told that their car will be more expensive. That is why I think they should announce that future reservations will be inflation adjusted.

I have 2 reservations, one of which is very early (have a Model S priority, and was in line before opening). I assume I'll get at least my first one for 35K base.

 

[S'toon]

Why are you assuming that the price'll increase when the input costs are decreasing?

You say you're playing Devil's Advocate, but this is coming off as concern trolling to me.

 

[kptesl]

Why are you assuming that the price'll increase when the input costs are decreasing?

Just with general inflation (which will affect all cars). Price of steel, aluminum, rubber, energy, salaries, etc etc will likely all go up. I assume their battery production costs as well as some other costs will go down due to the scaling to high volume.

I'm not so concerned with the cars built end of 2017 as that's pretty soon, but as the backlog grows and they start selling placeholders for cars in 2020, it becomes less likely they can sell them for that price then. Of course we can't predict how high inflation will be.