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Devils advocating...from someone who shorted TSLA

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My P 85 D. The very first delivered in this region and one of the very few P 85 with Sport suspension.
 

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I assume you've been adding to your short position with the recent price increase?
I assume you've been adding to your short position with the recent price increase?

I would assume that he "doubled down" yet again after the price increase yesterday and since the 250,000 reservations in 24 hours, 60% of which were sight unseen. I mean, as Realist will certainly tell us, these hundreds of thousands of reservations certainly have put Tesla in a worse position than it was before, or at least it should have been priced into the stock already. More importantly, it's just a matter of time when these hundreds of thousands of people will see the light that Realist has seen, i.e., we should be buying GT4s and not wasting our time and money on the Model 3 which is nothing special.
 
This should be enough, I will not post more pictures.

250.000 reservations. So what? These are refundable deposits no orders.

Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.

Of course many of you believe Tesla will disrupt the other car makers. I do not think so.

I believe the Model 3 will steal demand from the Model S. Model S backlog will basically dry out so Tesla is likely to burn even more cash. Reliabilty issues are finally kicking in. The car turns out to be unfinished and underengineered just as I always said. And it's not improving it will get worse with the Model X.

Without any positive cash flow Tesla could still turn out to be a black hole for investor.

We had this before, think Nokia, Blackberry, Yahoo, AOL, GoPro and many others......
 

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This should be enough, I will not post more pictures.

250.000 reservations. So what? These are refundable deposits no orders.

Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.

Of course many of you believe Tesla will disrupt the other car makers. I do not think so.

I believe the Model 3 will steal demand from the Model S. Model S backlog will basically dry out so Tesla is likely to burn even more cash. Reliabilty issues are finally kicking in. The car turns out to be unfinished and underengineered just as I always said. And it's not improving it will get worse with the Model X.

Without any positive cash flow Tesla could still turn out to be a black hole for investor.

We had this before, think Nokia, Blackberry, Yahoo, AOL, GoPro and many others......

Yes, this is indeed a "short" mentality.
 
I believe the Model 3 will steal demand from the Model S. Model S backlog will basically dry out so Tesla is likely to burn even more cash.....


I believe you are 100% wrong. Model 3 will INCREASE orders for the S, because so many more people are aware of Tesla now, will go test drive, won't want to wait, don't want a significantly smaller car than the S, want a hatchback, want more luxury, etc.

Size difference of S and 3.

Screenshot (23).png
 
250.000 reservations. So what? These are refundable deposits no orders.
Sure, they are refundable deposits. But they do give Tesla another 250 million dollars to play with. And even if half the reservation orders cancel, the Model 3 should be sold out through 2018. And that's even assuming a near perfect ramp.

Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.
The difference is of course that Tesla is growing rapidly, and Audi is shrinking.

Of course many of you believe Tesla will disrupt the other car makers. I do not think so.

I believe the Model 3 will steal demand from the Model S. Model S backlog will basically dry out so Tesla is likely to burn even more cash.
This is nonsense. For one thing, the fact that there are more Model 3 reservations than Model S+X deliveries and reservations combined, suggests that Tesla has a far greater appeal than you're suggesting. Another factor is that you're basically suggesting that people cross-shop a BMW 3-series and a BMW 6-series. This just doesn't happen very often. The fact is that the Model S is punishing all competitors in it's market segment, and in all probability, so will the Model 3: #1 Large Luxury Car In US = Tesla Model S (2015 Sales Comparison)

Reliabilty issues are finally kicking in. The car turns out to be unfinished and underengineered just as I always said. And it's not improving it will get worse with the Model X.
You're basing this on what? The rapidly falling service costs per car? (As outlined in the last conference call.)

Edit: Sorry, went back and check and it was the shareholder letter: "The cost of first year repair claims on cars produced in 2015 was at about half the level of cars produced in 2014, and about one quarter the level of cars produced in 2012."
Without any positive cash flow Tesla could still turn out to be a black hole for investor.
Good thing Tesla just recieved 250 million these last three days... (Not that they particularly needed them.)
 
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I've been here long enough to know that you actually believe what you write
Wow. Poe's Law strikes again. I guess no matter how crazy the belief, someone believes it sincerely. I find it quite difficult to conceive of the warped mindset which would actually prefer a gasmobile to a Tesla of the same price, and I have proof that that mindset is very abnormal.
 
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[QUOTE="Realist, post: 1454070, member: 14308"
Audi produces 1.4 Mio cars a year with positive cash flow after capex. Market Cap is almost equal to Tesla.
[/QUOTE]


Look what the main newspaper in South Germany thinks of the German car industry after the model-3 reveal :
Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

That is a (partial) explanation why Tesla's market cap is already this high compared to Audi's